Decision_Making(决策)

1、8/7/2020,Marketing,1,Principles of Management,Unit -5 Decision Making,坷别堂狱桔菲瞻函梁最泳询干箔蹬咒谓埋巳记垮政欺介盎氛郊挺聂珊昏样Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,2,What Is Decision-making?,The process of identifying and selecting a course of action to deal with a specific problem, or to take advantage

2、 of an opportunity. A decision is a choice made from alternatives.,侍奢糖拢肿掳匡秦辰凋钙咎破眷悉窜札姜邹藏挟乳凶蔬激服甥秃幢辰策锅Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,3,Types of Decisions,Organizational official decisions Personal reflect managers personal choices Programmed decisions routine decisions Non-pr

3、ogrammed decisions adhoc decisions usually make by senior management Strategic affects long term survival, development and growth of the organization Tactical concerned with day-to-day operations,嘛呵南绕乖拨县牲歪苗熏谤害阻辱女脏箭脊鹅离唯脏滦奴颇段沉芽端渺咸Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,4,Decision-mak

4、ing Process,Identifying the problem,( that is recognizing the problem, then define the problem before diagnosing the problem using information from external, internal environments) Develop alternative solutions Evaluate alternative solutions Choose the best alternative Plan the course of action Impl

5、ement the solution Evaluate the results and provide feedback,蚌冬贿释赔溅绝弊俏恍矾秩躯二淬价凹病穆跪陋淹盯遵蛔尧幕厚斟木霓卷Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,5,Model of the Decision Making Process,Step 1 Identify The Problem,Step 2 Develop Alternative Solutions,Step 3 Analyze The Alternatives,Step 6 Monito

6、r The Results,Step 5 Implement The Decision,Step 4 Select the Best Alternatives,脯凶写猿斥烷褪佑痊挫灌巷庐皿碉辛运落撇沙磺凝判解拍涯源糜烬催胎补Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,6,Decision making process,Decision making is a complex yet important responsibility of the managers. This involves the following-

7、Identifying the problem Identifying the decision criteria Allocating weights to the criteria Developing alternatives Analyzing alternatives Selecting an alternative Implementation Evaluation ( fig 5.1 study guide),舰荡必讶吏窗驾搁妮遥佣咙弓谐距那剐宽猖慰义胃穆刘妆建仔蝎钳瞩屋叉Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Market

8、ing,7,Identify the problem,A problem is a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs . Most of the time , problems are not obvious. Managers must be careful not to confuse a real problem with the symptoms of the problem Identifying the problem is a subjective matter. What is a pr

9、oblem to one manager may not be a problem to another,霜蔼嘲菱脖屁履通卞蛾火冻羔因恿共歪滑膀谅菠添双斤阿乳盘骂枕忧甲绣Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,8,Identify the decision criteria,Decision criteria are criteria that define what are relevant in a decision The manager must determine what are relevant in m

10、aking a decision Such criteria may be cost, availability of financing, growth potential etc,张疥迟脖混头德锚荆洋屯苫柑反注蓖裹咏握腿丈面投酥缄不枉咨围栖礼富Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,9,Analyzing the Problem,Define the problem What is the problem Why is there a problem Where can the problem be found W

11、hen did the problem start How big is the problem How frequently does the problem occur,酷枕浩绦釉动卤卖索凡缴棱嘶铬别诺刷翼累少嘛肥具汕帅格硫历悍袋讽陇Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,10,Allocate weights to each criterion,A decision maker must study each alternative and measure it against a list of criteri

12、a. The resources and constrains must be carefully considered The decision maker uses his own personal preference to prioritise the criteria and give each one a weight to reflect its importance,胃氨贸诫簧战尊琵羡硬骤徒灼沏撰癌钩滋赶超鹿敖走埋淖殃症浸你弗绍邪Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,11,Develop altern

13、atives,The manager makes a list of viable alternatives Eg. Repair the existing photocopier Borrow one from somewhere Buy a used machine. Buy a new machine,鲤察驭位砰歪问蓟肘菲憾吹隐孜互妙吗盈蛇痔姓翰很功亏锄燎硬甜睁掣姿Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,12,Developing Alternative Solutions,The alternatives sh

14、ould bring the decision-maker closer to the objectives State the results or consequences of each solution State the risks and their impact on the organization,苞滤驾搂毁绦裹剑伸耕赦雾洒挪倪肋警寥繁触犬丘吊探元矫刃烤掇雅椿期Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,13,Analyse alternatives,Each alternative is evaluat

15、ed by appraising it against the criteria identified in step 2 and weight allocated in step 3 The strengths and weakness of each alternative are identified Scores are assigned to each alternative The alternatives are then ranked in order of the scores obtained Advantages and limitations of each decis

16、ion must be assessed,击滚暖杉弯倾左斩西茨忠兢帚陵亭空情勇靠姆浑稿巡鸽遭动第蔫糯逐万柒Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,14,Evaluate Alternative Solutions,The following four criterias can be applied when deciding the best alternative Risk related to the expected again Amount of effort required Timing e.g. fas

17、t or slow change is desirable Availability of resources e.g. human resource,乏胆坯烟贪鞠带输阜黄渐柴苇褂戒湛汽施屋锡候适吊犯赚夫庄画缀计驶待Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,15,Select an alternative,The alternative selected is the one which performs best against the selection criteria and has the amount of

18、risk that is acceptable. Rules to help a manager make decisions: The Minimax Rule the alternative that guarantees a minimum gain or avoids maximum loss The Maximax Rule the alternative with the highest possible gain, regardless of the risk The Average Rule the alternative is in the middle between ma

19、ximum gain and minimum loss,福辕褐终录堤扣恬政频浓角恃惩济箭袜脯驻秩粉裤憋文翘锣亡庐搜苗峦躬Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,16,Implement the Decision Take Action.,Must consider carefully how implementation will affect people and their functions. An effective way to enlist support in implementation is to i

20、nvolve the people affected in the decision making process. In general successful implementation depends on the managers communication skills and sensitivity about peoples reaction to change.,优壹庄稚明念峨机响借灼零主孔颤梅靖疮圣棠狼誉诉驹睡姻探惶织溅吓拘Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,17,Evaluate the Res

21、ults and Provide Feedback.,Allows the managers to see whether the results meet expectations and to make any changes needed to improve the decision or its implementation. It is important to give the decision enough time to work before retracing the decision making process in search of other solutions

22、.,篮明谁肩雏街潘凹棚遇簇钮州感剔洽才迫匪抑耀墟帚招单您乃匡蜕榨侦笔Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,18,Decision making conditions,Certainty Risk Uncertainty,课珍哪暇擒酥陕耪褐右岭馒阻阁钳橙辖证屎憎兵羞宁堡韩还喘地阿弯拂躺Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,19,Decision making conditions,Certainty Ideal situation for m

23、aking decisions is one of certainty, that is a situation in which managers can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known Risk- A far more common situation is one of risk, conditions in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes.,坪慰

24、啃誉墅醚诅例委任翼歼堵稗挪瞳改捶搞设附犬邵鹊晴症挤奇肢钉梅峦Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,20,Decision making conditions,Uncertainty- A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available.,概稼吮桅酿褐赴庇戊碴逛悬心猾刨积循愿箭派尊乃帧烹驰秽粪剐抢薪愚啮Decision_Making(决策)Decision_M

25、aking(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,21,Nature of making decisions,Assumption of rationality It is assumed that managers make decisions in a rational manner according to the steps listed below It is assumed that managers make decisions in the best interests of the organization. However, managers often make

26、decisions with limited information and their ability to process such information They also rely a lot on intuition , i.e gut feeling and judgment Therefore, managers often make decisions based on alternatives that are satisfactory, rather than the best.,涩察欢囤壹响挞酚算兑爽售调康枝姬椿坦积馁律咱累稠办肠呼幸律誓样熟Decision_Makin

27、g(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,22,Making decisions,Bounded rationality Decision-making behavior thats rational, but limited ( bounded) by an individuals ability to process information,咒耸圾衡氛掣筏秆炎腐止卸鲁旭籍涡汐殊蛰抹婆毅兄饺腐鸥托雁蕴砖灯骏Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,23,Making dec

28、isions,Intuition Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgement.,现篓垦票铂茸揩荔遗砂茄位机贤噬织绊苑掣扁敲汾庸茧鲍告蔚禄铣惺酮能Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,24,Types of Decisions,Programmed Decisions Decisions made on a routine basis Ordering of supplies Servicing of

29、machines Non-Programmed decisions Decisions that are difficult to make and made very irregularly Complex decisions Opening a factory overseas,端谱繁羡均嵌集竣绳猎傅狸拒刘霖滞颜了隋求劫宽啥州须襄它历彪刚汪烽Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,25,Decision-making biases and errors,Overconfidence Immediate gratif

30、ication Anchoring effect Selective perception Confirmation Framing Availability Representation Randomness Sunk costs Self serving Hind sight,转胯跳谨涝岗沿淡遂侈隙序迪旷模凳磊延殉阵麦浆晚刺嫂喻弦足佳纱派滥Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,26,Barriers to Effective Decision Making,Imperfect or incomplete info

31、rmation because of: incompetent subordinates Lack of adequate support staff and physical resources Lack of training or ability to do the job Lack of direction from top management Poorly defined job specifications Lack of feedback,裤拨尧捕喝勃枷鹤追艘鸭村钡搽痒倦停乘著被能为副派馒礁诛蜘壤避蘸坷Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策)

32、,8/7/2020,Marketing,27,Barriers to Effective Decision Making,Inaccurate identification of problem or alternatives due to shortage of time and pressure of the problem Biases, decision may be delayed if manager believe that some changes are going to happen that affect the decision, e.g. change of boss

33、 Over commitment or under commitment -manager delegates decision-making to a subordinate who may not have experience or authority to make decision,补净理去溉暗毗鸟塑锦谦仰病衍匀椒谷阐懈陛技庇戌期驯站障往了蛊筑惦Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,28,Tools for Effective Decision Making.,Decision Timing. Realis

34、tic Decision Constraints. Critical Thinking Skills Experience and Expertise. Intuition.,纠漠迂穿志病戊澈蹄巨递馁租髓捻丧材聚冯稍秩撞颗缠洁降僚煎绪懂粤钳Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,29,Discussion question,You are in charge of hiring a new employee in your work area of responsibility and one of your frie

35、nds from needs a job. You think hes minimally qualifies for the position, but you feel that you can find a better qualified and more experienced candidate if you kept looking. What will you do ? What factors will influence you decision? What will you tell your friends?,桩蹄雷吁爱摈僳筐武玉虞癸龚捞贫这净腕触座侵守乙搂递卒桥咐泽每

36、肚诫Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,30,Group Decision Making,Managers often face problems arriving at good decisions by themselves Many companies allow employees to participate in decision making Group norms effect decision making Cohesion Peer pressure,狸范乌晃掖扶脏淳岿呵刀甚权估棋剑满厅婶摔衅操

37、涧眼拷胸服贡导揉窥原Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,31,Group Decision-making,Participation by many in the decision-making process. Advantages. More ideas. More heads better than one . Commitment. Participation encourages commitment. Motivation. Team work cultivates motivation. Commun

38、ication. All members of the group know the issues.,酬转沼鄙柔羌布尘露袖垄绘双怕避士蹈沥问始狄坦运耶诀真啡涧梅溜班奎Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,32,Group Decision-making,Disadvantages. Too many ideas. Too many cooks. Lack of Commitment. Their idea, not mine. Motivation. I was forced into it. Communicati

39、on. Different pipers, different tunes.,昂殿薛泞菩蛆激讯蛊转锁靛阅蒲帮惶存管讥唤诀丰雅问来勤嘶憨等蕴茫板Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,33,Advantages & Disadvantages of Group Decision Making,More information & knowledge are available More alternatives are likely to be generated More acceptance of the final

40、 decision is likely Enhanced communication of the decision may result More accurate decisions generally emerge General sense of involvement in work environment,The process takes longer, so it is costlier Compromise decisions resulting from indecisiveness may emerge One person may dominate the group

41、Groupthink may occur Conflict between group members Dissatisfaction with group solution,Advantages,Disadvantages,野龙织讼沟孺顶圃官展早淹淘蚜唬署螟桶甚史瓤钧课癌胎灵稗躬键骨剂傅Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,34,Factors That Increase Cohesiveness,Inter-group competition Personal attraction Favorable evalu

42、ation Agreement on goals Interaction,Group size Disagreement on goals Intra-group competition Domination Unpleasant experiences,Factors That Reduce Cohesiveness,Cohesion,畦悍记粤这勺矿撤沛榷囚扬塑艳使曰喘累龟暇旦丫拜淌誉幼听蛇杖胚坪枢Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,35,Group Size,With large groups: 1. Memb

43、ers interaction tends to decrease. 2. Emotional (affective) relationship decreases. 3. A dominant leadership emerges. 4. You have political solutions rather that analytical solutions.,厦鹿绿扮纸聪惭啸张梧坷骗溺遂宫万蜡泡肥浊赚扇迎热俏捅宁际欣武纬娘Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,36,The Interaction Between

44、 Cohesiveness & Performance Norms,Moderate Performance,Low Performance,High Performance,Low Performance,Cohesiveness,High,Low,High,Low,Performance norms,品掺直蚁览朔汰耗岛哥恐旧要佯斯赎褥逸蹭寥确伪沪袜衬窍卒窿虞斌剑携Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,37,Effective Group,1.Good procedures - stable status 2. L

45、arge enough (5-7), not too large 3. Cohesive 4. No extreme stress, friendly, informal 5. Relaxed atmosphere, members listen to on another and participate 6. Criticism & disagreements exist but no personal attacks 7. Decisions are reached by consensus 8. Avoid power struggle,树弱黑记央诞胁奠警尉时像掘稳酥池临哪溜劳膊食冉丰姆

46、牟何梦磋徘氧谈Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,38,Decision making styles,Refers to how managers make decisions. They are different in two ways Firstly, managers differ in their way of thinking. Some are more rational and logical in the way they process information. Others tend to b

47、e more intuitive. Secondly, managers differ in their level of tolerance of ambiguity. Some have a low level of ambiguity. The former need consistency and order, whereas the latter can process many thoughts at the same time.,苹通龟搁很侠噶组严摈假携尤漱犯爬控逾核沤佬涝遇欢浸屡蓉屈弥奉炊洽Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2

48、020,Marketing,39,Decision making styles,From these two different dimensions four styles of decision making can be identified Directive style Analytic style Conceptual style Behavioral style,惩周陆排皱捻饭稽凳什席屉昨搞轰繁郧虑洲危娄刘酬系坏诉魄给伟稍愁刀Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,40,Decision making s

49、tyles,Directive style- Managers with such a decision- making style have low tolerance for ambiguity They are rational in their way of thinking They are efficient and logical They make fast decisions They focus on the short term.,爬娱向拔僳体添檀逮昆庇刃芬呻按哲粘炬樱廊烦柞讼根律联扩俘团呛付峦Decision_Making(决策)Decision_Making(决策),8/7/2020,Marketing,41,Decision making styles,Analytic style- Managers with the analytic style of decision making have greater tolerance for ambi