Bond markets analysis and strategies Pricing of Bonds.ppt

1、Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-1,Chapter 2Pricing of Bonds,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-2,Learning Objectives,After reading this chapter, you will understand the time value of money how to calculate the price of a bond tha

2、t to price a bond it is necessary to estimate the expected cash flows and determine the appropriate yield at which to discount the expected cash flows why the price of a bond changes in the direction opposite to the change in required yield,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prenti

3、ce Hall,2-3,Learning Objectives(continued),After reading this chapter, you will understand that the relationship between price and yield of an option-free bond is convex the relationship between coupon rate, required yield, and price how the price of a bond changes as it approaches maturity the reas

4、ons why the price of a bond changes the complications of pricing bonds the pricing of floating-rate and inverse-floating-rate securities what accrued interest is and how bond prices are quoted,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-4,Review of Time Value,Future Value Th

5、e future value (Pn) of any sum of money invested today is: Pn = P0(1+r)n n = number of periods Pn = future value n periods from now (in dollars) P0 = original principal (in dollars) r = interest rate per period (in decimal form) (1+r)n represents the future value of $1 invested today for n periods a

6、t a compounding rate of r,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-5,Review of Time Value (continued),Future Value When interest is paid more than one time per year, both the interest rate and the number of periods used to compute the future value must be adjusted as foll

7、ows: r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid per year n = number of times interest paid per year times number of years The higher future value when interest is paid semiannually, as opposed to annually, reflects the greater opportunity for reinvesting the interest paid.,Copyright 2010

8、 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-6,Review of Time Value (continued),Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity When the same amount of money is invested periodically, it is referred to as an annuity. When the first investment occurs one period from now, it is referred to as an ordinar

9、y annuity. The equation for the future value of an ordinary annuity (Pn) is: A = the amount of the annuity (in dollars). r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid per year n = number of times interest paid per year times number of years,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing

10、as Prentice Hall,2-7,Review of Time Value (continued),Example of Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity Using Annual Interest: If A = $2,000,000, r = 0.08, and n = 15, then Pn = ? Pn = $2,000,000 27.152125 = $54,304.250,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-8,Review of Ti

11、me Value (continued),Example of Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity Using Semiannual Interest: If A = $2,000,000/2 = $1,000,000, r = 0.08/2 = 0.04, and n = 15(2) = 30, then Pn = ? Pn = $1,000,000 56.085 = $56,085,000,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-9,Review of Ti

12、me Value (continued),Present Value The present value is the future value process in reverse. We have: r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid per year n = number of times interest paid per year times number of years For a given future value at a specified time in the future, the highe

13、r the interest rate (or discount rate), the lower the present value. For a given interest rate, the further into the future that the future value will be received, then the lower its present value.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-10,Review of Time Value (continue

14、d),Present Value of a Series of Future Values To determine the present value of a series of future values, the present value of each future value must first be computed. Then these present values are added together to obtain the present value of the entire series of future values.,Copyright 2010 Pea

15、rson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-11,Review of Time Value (continued),Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity When the same amount of money is received (or paid) each period, it is referred to as an annuity. When the first payment is received one period from now, the annuity is called

16、an ordinary annuity. When the first payment is immediate, the annuity is called an annuity due. The present value of an annuity due (PV) is: A = the amount of the annuity (in dollars) r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid per year n = number of times interest paid per year times num

17、ber of years,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-12,Review of Time Value (continued),Example of Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity (PV) Using Annual Interest: If A = $100, r = 0.09, and n = 8, then PV = ? PV = $100 5.534811 = $553.48,Copyright 2010 Pearson Educatio

18、n, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-13,Review of Time Value (continued),Present Value When Payments Occur More Than Once Per Year If the future value to be received occurs more than once per year, then the present value formula is modified so that the annual interest rate is divided by the frequen

19、cy per year the number of periods when the future value will be received is adjusted by multiplying the number of years by the frequency per year,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-14,Pricing a Bond,Determining the price of any financial instrument requires an estim

20、ate of the expected cash flows the appropriate required yield the required yield reflects the yield for financial instruments with comparable risk, or alternative investments The cash flows for a bond that the issuer cannot retire prior to its stated maturity date consist of periodic coupon interest

21、 payments to the maturity date the par (or maturity) value at maturity,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-15,Pricing a Bond (continued),In general, the price of a bond (P) can be computed using the following formula: P = price (in dollars) n = number of periods (num

22、ber of years times 2) t = time period when the payment is to be received C = semiannual coupon payment (in dollars) r = periodic interest rate (required annual yield divided by 2) M = maturity value,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-16,Pricing a Bond (continued),Co

23、mputing the Value of a Bond: An Example Consider a 20-year 10% coupon bond with a par value of $1,000 and a required yield of 11%. Given C = 0.1($1,000) / 2 = $50, n = 2(20) = 40 and r = 0.11 / 2 = 0.055, the present value of the coupon payments (P) is: P = $50 16.046131 = $802.31,Copyright 2010 Pea

24、rson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-17,Pricing a Bond (continued),Computing the Value of a Bond: An Example The present value of the par or maturity value of $1,000 is: Continuing the computation from the previous slide: The price of the bond (P) = present value coupon payments + pres

25、ent value maturity value = $802.31 + $117.46 = $919.77.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-18,Pricing a Bond (continued),For zero-coupon bonds, the investor realizes interest as the difference between the maturity value and the purchase price. The equation is: P = p

26、rice (in dollars) M = maturity value r = periodic interest rate (required annual yield divided by 2) n = number of periods (number of years times 2),Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-19,Pricing a Bond (continued),Zero-Coupon Bond Example Consider the price of a zer

27、o-coupon bond (P) that matures 15 years from now, if the maturity value is $1,000 and the required yield is 9.4%. Given M = $1,000, r = 0.094 / 2 = 0.047, and n = 2(15) = 30, what is P ?,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-20,Pricing a Bond (continued),Price-Yield Re

28、lationship A fundamental property of a bond is that its price changes in the opposite direction from the change in the required yield. (See Overhead 2-21). The reason is that the price of the bond is the present value of the cash flows. If we graph the price-yield relationship for any option-free bo

29、nd, we will find that it has the “bowed” shape shown in Exhibit 2-2 (See Overhead 2-22).,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-21,Exhibit 2-1Price-Yield Relationship for a 20-Year 10% Coupon Bond,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-22,E

30、xhibit 2-2Shape of Price-Yield Relationship for an Option-Free Bond,Price,Maximum Price,Yield,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-23,Pricing a Bond (continued),Relationship Between Coupon Rate, Required Yield, and Price When yields in the marketplace rise above the c

31、oupon rate at a given point in time, the price of the bond falls so that an investor buying the bond can realizes capital appreciation. The appreciation represents a form of interest to a new investor to compensate for a coupon rate that is lower than the required yield. When a bond sells below its

32、par value, it is said to be selling at a discount. A bond whose price is above its par value is said to be selling at a premium.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-24,Pricing a Bond (continued),Relationship Between Bond Price and Time if Interest Rates Are Unchanged

33、 For a bond selling at par value, the coupon rate equals the required yield. As the bond moves closer to maturity, the bond continues to sell at par . Its price will remain constant as the bond moves toward the maturity date. The price of a bond will not remain constant for a bond selling at a premi

34、um or a discount. Exhibit 2-3 shows the time path of a 20-year 10% coupon bond selling at a discount and the same bond selling at a premium as it approaches maturity. (See truncated version of Exhibit 2-3 in Overhead 2-25.) The discount bond increases in price as it approaches maturity, assuming tha

35、t the required yield does not change. For a premium bond, the opposite occurs. For both bonds, the price will equal par value at the maturity date.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-25,Exhibit 2-3Time Path for the Price of a 20-Year 10% Bond Selling at a Discount a

36、nd Premium as It Approaches Maturity,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-26,Pricing a Bond (continued),Reasons for the Change in the Price of a Bond The price of a bond can change for three reasons: there is a change in the required yield owing to changes in the cred

37、it quality of the issuer there is a change in the price of the bond selling at a premium or a discount, without any change in the required yield, simply because the bond is moving toward maturity there is a change in the required yield owing to a change in the yield on comparable bonds (i.e., a chan

38、ge in the yield required by the market),Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-27,Complications,The framework for pricing a bond assumes the following: the next coupon payment is exactly six months away the cash flows are known the appropriate required yield can be dete

39、rmined one rate is used to discount all cash flows,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-28,Complications (continued),(1) The next coupon payment is exactly six months away When an investor purchases a bond whose next coupon payment is due in less than six months, the

40、accepted method for computing the price of the bond is as follows: where v = (days between settlement and next coupon) divided by (days in six-month period),Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-29,Complications (continued),Cash Flows May Not Be Known For most bonds, t

41、he cash flows are not known with certainty. This is because an issuer may call a bond before the maturity date. Determining the Appropriate Required Yield All required yields are benchmarked off yields offered by Treasury securities. From there, we must still decompose the required yield for a bond

42、into its component parts. One Discount Rate Applicable to All Cash Flows A bond can be viewed as a package of zero-coupon bonds, in which case a unique discount rate should be used to determine the present value of each cash flow.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-

43、30,Pricing Floating-Rate andInverse-Floating-Rate Securities,The cash flow is not known for either a floating-rate or an inverse-floating-rate security; it depends on the reference rate in the future. Price of a Floater The coupon rate of a floating-rate security (or floater) is equal to a reference

44、 rate plus some spread or margin. The price of a floater depends on the spread over the reference rate any restrictions that may be imposed on the resetting of the coupon rate,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-31,Pricing Floating-Rate andInverse-Floating-Rate Secur

45、ities(continued),Price of an Inverse-Floater In general, an inverse floater is created from a fixed-rate security. The security from which the inverse floater is created is called the collateral. From the collateral two bonds are created: a floater and an inverse floater. (This is depicted in Exhibi

46、t 2-4 as found in Overhead 2-32.) The price of a floater depends on (i) the spread over the reference rate and (ii) any restrictions that may be imposed on the resetting of the coupon rate. For example, a floater may have a maximum coupon rate called a cap or a minimum coupon rate called a floor. Th

47、e price of an inverse floater equals the collaterals price minus the floaters price.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-32,Exhibit 2-4Creation of an Inverse Floater,Floating-rate Bond (“Floater”),Inverse-floating-rate bond (“Inverse floater”),Collateral (Fixed-rate

48、bond),Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2-33,Price Quotes and Accrued Interest,Price Quotes A bond selling at par is quoted as 100, meaning 100% of its par value. A bond selling at a discount will be selling for less than 100. A bond selling at a premium will be selling for more than 100.,Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as