Chap_24.ppt

1、,Measuring the Cost of Living生活费用的衡量,Chapter 24,Measuring the Cost of Living生活费用的衡量,Inflation refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising. 通货膨胀是指经济中物价总水平上升的情况。 The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period. 通货膨胀率是从前一个时期以来物价总水平变动

2、的百分比。,The Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.,消费物价指数,消费物价指数 (CPI)是普通消费者所购

3、买的物品与劳务的总费用的衡量标准。 劳工部的一个部门劳工统计局每月都计算并公布消费物价指数。 它被用来监测生活费用随着时间的变化情况。,The Consumer Price Index消费物价指数,When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living. 当CPI上升时，普通家庭不得不花费更多的美元来保持原来的生活水平。,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated,Fix the Basket: De

4、termine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services.,如何计算消费物价指数,固定篮子: 确

5、定哪些物价对普通消费者是最重要的。 劳工统计局(BLS)通过消费者调查并找出普通消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务。 劳工统计局每月对消费者进行调查来确定对这些物品与劳务价格的权数。,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated如何计算消费物价指数,Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time. 找出价格：找出每个时点上篮子中每种物品与劳务的价格。,How the Consumer Price Ind

6、ex Is Calculated如何计算消费物价指数,Compute the Baskets Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. 计算这一篮子东西的费用：用价格数据计算不同时点一篮子物品与劳务的费用。,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated,Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: Designate one year as the

7、 base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100.,如何计算消费物价指数,选择基年并计算指数: 指定一年为基年，即其他各年与之比较的基准。 每年一篮子物品与劳务的价格除以基年一篮子物品与劳务的价格，然后把这个比率乘以100，所得出的数字就是消费物价指数。,Ho

8、w the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated如何计算消费物价指数,Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period. 计算通货膨胀率：通货膨胀率是从上一年以来物价指数的变动百分比。,The Inflation Rate 通货膨胀率,The inflation rate is calculated as follows: 通货膨胀率计算如下：,Table 1 Calculatin

9、g the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第一步：调查消费者以确定固定的一篮子物品,4个热狗，2个汉堡,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第二步：找出每年每种物品的价格,年,热狗价格,

10、汉堡价格,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第三步：计算每年一篮子物品的费用,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第四步：选择一年为基年（20

11、01）并计算每年的消费物价指数,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第五步：用消费物价指数计算自上一年以来的通货膨胀率,How the Consumer Price Index IsCalculated,Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another Example Base Ye

12、ar is 2002. Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200. The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236. CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 = 103. Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.,如何计算消费物价指数,计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子 基年选为2002. 2002年这一篮子物品的费用是1200美元。 2004年同一篮子的费用是1236美元。 CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 = 103. 在2002年至2004

13、年间，物价上升了3。,FYI: Whats in the CPIs Basket?,FYI: 在CPI的篮子中有些什么?,Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living衡量生活费用中的问题,The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living. CPI是所选择的构成消费篮子的物品的准确衡量，但它并不是生活费用的完美衡量指标。,Proble

14、ms in Measuring The Cost of Living衡量生活费用中的问题,Substitution bias 替代倾向 Introduction of new goods 新产品的引进 Unmeasured quality changes 无法衡量的质量变动,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Substitution Bias The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substi

15、tute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.,衡量生活费用中的问题,替代倾向 当不同产品的相对价格发生变化时，消费者会通过改变购买习惯对此有所反应，而计算物价指数的市场篮子保持不变。 消费者转向购买变得相对便宜的替代物品。 消费物价指数不考虑这种消费者替代的可能性，从而高估了生活费用的增加。,Problems in Measurin

16、g the Cost of Living,Introduction of New Goods The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products. New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard

17、 of living.,衡量生活费用中的问题,新产品的引进 当引进了一种新产品时，消费者有了更多的选择，使货币的购买力增加，计算消费物价指数的市场篮子并没有反映这种变动。 新产品的引进为消费者提供了更多的选择机会，进而使每一美元更值钱。 消费者可以需要更少的美元来维持一定的生活水平。,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Unmeasured Quality Changes If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, ev

18、en if the price of the good stays the same. If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same. The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.,衡量生活费用中的问题,无法衡量的质量变动 如果从一

19、年到下一年物品的质量上升了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也上升了。 如果从一年到下一年物品的质量变差了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也下降了。 劳工统计局尽其最大努力调整价格来考虑质量变动，但是这些质量差异很难衡量。,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living. The iss

20、ue is important because many government programs use the CPI toadjust for changes in the overall level of prices. The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year.,衡量生活费用中的问题,替代倾向、新产品的引进和无法衡量的质量变动导致CPI高估了实际的生活费用。 这个问题之所以重要，是因为许多政府计划是用消费物价指数来调整物价总水平的变动的。 CPI每年高估了1左右的通货膨胀率。,The GDP De

21、flator versus the Consumer Price Index GDP平减指数与消费物价指数,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows: GDP平减指数计算如下：,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index GDP平减指数与消费物价指数,The BLS calculates other prices indexes: 劳工统计局还计算其他价格指数： The index for different regions within the country. 美国不同地区的价格指数。 The

22、producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. 生产价格指数衡量厂商而不是消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务的费用。,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how

23、quickly prices are rising. There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.,GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数,经济学家和政策制订者为了估计物价上升有多快，即要关注GDP平减指数，又要关注消费物价指数。 有两个重要的差别导致这两个数字不一致。,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and

24、services produced domestically, whereas. the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.,GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数,GDP 平减指数反映了国内生产的所有物品与劳务的价格，而. 消费物价指数反映消费者购买的所有物品与劳务的价格。,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index compares the price of

25、 a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket). whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.,GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数,消费物

26、价指数 比较固定的一篮子物品与劳务的价格与基年这一篮子物品与劳务的价格（劳工局只是偶尔改变这一篮子物品）. 而GDP平减指数比较现期生产的物品与劳务的价格与基年同样物品与劳务的价格。,Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation通货膨胀的两个衡量指标,1965,Percent,per Year,15,10,5,0,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,2000,1995,每年百分比,GDP平减指数,消费物价指数,CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION根据通货膨胀的影响校正经济变量,

27、Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times. 当比较不同时点 上美元数字时，价格指数被用来校正通货膨胀的影响。,Dollar Figures from Different Times,Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruths wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:,不同时期的美元数字,通过以下计算将巴波.鲁思的1931年的薪水转换

28、成按1999年美元计算的薪水：,Table 2 The Most Popular Movies of All Times, Inflation Adjusted,Copyright2004 South-Western,表2. 前10名卖座电影（根据通货膨胀进行了调整）,Indexation 指数化,When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or contract the amount is said to be indexed for inflation. 当某一美元量根据法律或合约自动地按通

29、货膨胀校正时，这种美元量就称为通货膨胀的指数化。,Real and Nominal Interest Rates实际与名义利率,Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past. 利率代表未来要为过去转移的货币进行支付。,Real and Nominal Interest Rates,The nominal interest rate is the interest rate not corrected for inflation. It is the interest rate th

30、at a bank pays. The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for inflation.,Real interest rate = (Nominal interest rate Inflation rate),实际与名义利率,名义利率 是没有根据通货膨胀校正的利率。 它是银行所支付的利率。 实际利率 是根据通货膨胀校正的利率。,实际利率 = 名义利率 通货膨胀率,Real and Nominal Interest Rates,You borrowed $1,000 for one y

31、ear. Nominal interest rate was 15%. During the year inflation was 10%. Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate Inflation = 15% - 10% = 5%,实际与名义利率,你向银行借了1,000美元，期限一年。 名义利率是 15%。 这一年中通货膨胀率是 10%。 实际利率 = 名义利率 通货膨胀率 = 15% - 10% = 5%,Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates实际与名义利率,1965,Interest Rates,(

32、percent,per year),15,10,5,0,5,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,利率 （每年百分比）,名义利率,实际利率,Summary,The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.,小结,消费物价指数表示相对于基年一篮子物品与劳务的费用，这一篮子物品与劳务的费用是多少。 这个指数用于衡量经济中的物价总水平。 消费物价指数变动的百分比衡量通货膨胀率。,Summary,The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of liv