公司价值评估与基于价值的管理研讨(ppt 45页).ppt

1、,CHAPTER 11Corporate Valuation and Value-Based Management第11章 公司价值评估和基于价值的管理,Corporate Valuation 公司价值评估 Value-Based Management 基于价值的管理 Corporate Governance 公司治理,Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司价值评估：列出公司拥有的两种资产,Operating assets and nonoperating, assets 经营性资产与非经

2、营性资产 Financial, or nonoperating, assets 金融性资产，或非营业资产 Assets-in-place 在用资产,Assets-in-Place在用资产,Assets-in-place are tangible, such as buildings, machines, inventory. 在用资产是指有形资产，例如建筑物、机器设备、存货。 Usually they are expected to grow. 通常，在用资产会逐渐增加。 They generate free cash flows. 他们会产生自由现金流量。 The PV of their e

3、xpected future free cash flows, discounted at the WACC, is the value of operations. 在用资产产生的预期自由现金流量，以加权平均资金成本为折现系数进行折现后的现值称为营业价值。,Value of Operations营业价值,注：Vop为营业价值 FCF为自由现金流量 WACC为加权平均资金成本,Nonoperating Assets非营业资产,Marketable securities 有价证券 Ownership of non-controlling interest in another company 拥

4、有另外一家公司的非控制性股权 Value of nonoperating assets usually is very close to figure that is reported on balance sheets. 非营业资产的价值通常与资产负债表上显示的数据非常接近,Total Corporate Value企业的总价值,Total corporate value is sum of: 企业的总价值包括： Value of operations 营业资产的价值 Value of nonoperating assets 非营业资产的价值,Claims on Corporate Valu

5、e对企业价值的要求权,Debtholders have first claim. 债权人拥有第一位的要求权 Preferred stockholders have the next claim. 优先股股东拥有第二位的要求权 Any remaining value belongs to stockholders. 剩余部分价值属于普通股股东,Applying the Corporate Valuation Model企业价值评估模型的应用,Forecast the financial statements, as shown in Chapter 4. 预测财务报表，详细内容见第四章 Calc

6、ulate the projected free cash flows. 计算预计的自由现金流量 Model can be applied to a company that does not pay dividends, a privately held company, or a division of a company, since FCF can be calculated for each of these situations. 由于无论是不发放股利的企业、私人企业还是公司内部的部门都可以计算自由现金流量，所以该模型同样适用于这些情况。,Data for Valuation 评估

7、数据,FCF0 （上年自由现金流量）= $20 million(百万) WACC （加权平均资金成本）= 10% g （年股利增长率）= 5% Marketable securities （有价证券）= $100 million(百万) Debt （负债）= $200 million(百万) Preferred stock（优先股） = $50 million(百万) Book value of equity （权益帐面价值）= $210 million(百万),Value of Operations: Constant Growth营业资产价值：固定增长,Suppose FCF grows

8、at constant rate g. 假定自由现金流量以固定的比率 g 增长。,Constant Growth Formula固定增长公式,Notice that the term in parentheses is less than one and gets smaller as t gets larger. As t gets very large, term approaches zero. 注意：括弧内的数值小于1，随着t值不断变大，该数值越来越小。当t值无限大时，该数值趋近于0。,Constant Growth Formula (Cont.)固定增长公式（续）,The summa

9、tion can be replaced by a single formula: 上述累加公式可以用下面的简单公式代替：,Find Value of Operations计算营业资产价值,Value of Equity权益价值,Sources of Corporate Value 公司价值的来源 Value of operations = $420 营业资产价值= $420 Value of non-operating assets = $100 非营业资产价值= $100 Claims on Corporate Value 对企业价值的要求权 Value of Debt = $200 负债

10、价值= $200 Value of Preferred Stock = $50 优先股价值= $50 Value of Equity = ? 权益价值=？,Value of Equity股东权益价值,Total corporate value = VOp + Mkt. Sec. 企业总价值=营业资产价值（Vop）+ 有价证券 = $420 + $100= $520 million(百万) Value of equity = Total - Debt - Pref. 股东权益价值=企业总价值 - 负债价值 - 优先股价值 = $520 - $200 - $50 = $270 million(百万

11、),Market Value Added (MVA)市场增加值（MVA）,MVA = Total corporate value of firm minus total book value of firm 市场增加值=公司的总价值减去公司的全部帐面价值 Total book value of firm = book value of equity + book value of debt + book value of preferred stock 公司的全部帐面价值=权益的帐面价值+负债的帐面价值+优先股的帐面价值 MVA（市场增加值）= $520 - ($210 + $200 + $5

12、0) = $60 million(百万),Breakdown of Corporate Value企业价值分类,Expansion Plan: Nonconstant Growth扩张计划：非固定增长,Finance expansion by borrowing $40 million(百万) and halting dividends. 通过借入资金 $40 million(百万)以及停止支付股利实现财务扩张 Projected free cash flows (FCF): 预计的自由现金流量（ FCF ） Year 1 FCF = -$5 million(百万). 第一年的自由现金流量（

13、FCF ）= -$5 million(百万) Year 2 FCF = $10 million(百万). 第二年的自由现金流量（ FCF ）= $10 million(百万) Year 3 FCF = $20 million(百万) 第三年的自由现金流量（ FCF ）= $20 million(百万) FCF grows at constant rate of 6% after year 3. 第三年后，自由现金流量（ FCF ）以固定的比率6%增长,(More)（更多内容）,The weighted average cost of capital, kc, is 10%. 加权平均资金成本k

14、c为10% The company has 10 million(百万) shares of stock. 公司有一千万股股份,Horizon Value水平价值,Free cash flows are forecast for three years in this example, so the forecast horizon is three years. 在本例中，预测了三年的自由现金流量，所以预测时间段为3年 Growth in free cash flows is not constant during the forecast,so we cant use the consta

15、nt growth formula to find the value of operations at time 0. 在3年的预测期中，自由现金流量的增长不固定，所以我们无法使用固定增长公式来计算时点0时的营业资产价值。,Horizon Value (Cont.)水平价值（续）,Growth is constant after the horizon (3 years), so we can modify the constant growth formula to find the value of all free cash flows beyond the horizon, disc

16、ounted back to the horizon. 在预测范围（3年）以后，增长率为固定值，所以我们可以对固定增长公式进行调整以计算预测时间段以外的所有自由现金流量价值，并折现到预测时间段以内。,Horizon Value Formula水平价值公式,Horizon value is also called terminal value, or continuing value. 水平价值也称为终点价值（终值），或持续经营价值。,Vop at 3,Find the value of operations by discounting the free cash flows at the c

17、ost of capital. 以资金成本为折现率将自由现金流量折现来计算营业资产价值,0,-4.545,8.264,15.026,398.197,1,2,3,4,kc=10%,416.942 = Vop,g = 6%,FCF= -5.0010.00 20.00 21.2,$21.2,.,.,$530.,10,0,06,0,Find the price per share of common stock.计算普通股每股价格,Value of equity （权益价值） =Value of operations（营业资产价值） - Value of debt（负债价值） = $416.94 -

18、$40 = $376.94 million(百万). Price per share （每股价格） = $376.94 /10 = $37.69.,Value-Based Management (VBM)基于价值的管理（VBM）,VBM is the systematic application of the corporate valuation model to all corporate decisions and strategic initiatives. VBM是企业价值评估模型在所有企业决策和战略行动中的系统性应用 The objective of VBM is to incre

19、ase Market Value Added (MVA) VBM的目标是增加市场增加值（MVA）,MVA and the Four Value Drivers MVA以及四种价值驱动因素,MVA is determined by four drivers: MVA主要由四种因素决定： Sales growth 销售增长率 Operating profitability (OP=NOPAT/Sales) 营业获利能力（=税后净营业利润 /销售收入） Capital requirements (CR=Operating capital / Sales) 资金需要量（资金需要量=营业资本/销售收入）

20、 Weighted average cost of capital 加权平均资金成本,MVA for a Constant Growth Firm固定增长公司的市场增加值（MVA）,Insights from the Constant Growth Model对固定增长模型的理解,The first bracket is the MVA of a firm that gets to keep all of its sales revenues (i.e., its operating profit margin is 100%) and that never has to make addit

21、ional investments in operating capital. 第一个括弧指的是一个公司用于获得所有销售收益的市场增加值（MVA），（也就是，其营业利润率为100%），并且不需要投入额外的营业资本。,Insights (Cont.)理解（续）,The second bracket is the operating profit (as a %) the firm gets to keep, less the return that investors require for having tied up their capital in the firm. 第二个括弧指的是公司

22、应得到的营业利润（以百分数表示）减去投资人要求的投资收益。,Improvements in MVA due to the Value Drivers由于价值驱动因素而使市场增加价值得到的改善,MVA will improve if: 如果发生以下情况， MVA将得到改善 WACC is reduced 加权平均资金成本降低 operating profitability (OP) increases 营业获利能力提高 the capital requirement (CR) decreases 资金需要量减少,The Impact of Growth销售增长的影响,The second ter

23、m in brackets can be either positive or negative, depending on the relative size of profitability, capital requirements, and required return by investors. 括弧中第二个值既可能是正值，也可能是负值，这取决于营业获利能力、资金需要量和投资人要求的收益的相对大小。,The Impact of Growth (Cont.)销售增长的影响（续）,If the second term in brackets is negative, then grow

24、th decreases MVA. In other words, profits are not enough to offset the return on capital required by investors. 如果括弧中第二个值是负值，那么销售增长将会降低市场增加价值（MVA）。也就是说，利润不足以补偿投资人要求的投资收益。 If the second term in brackets is positive, then growth increases MVA. 如果括弧中第二个值是正值，那么销售增长将提高市场增加价值（MVA）。,Expected Return on Inve

25、sted Capital (EROIC)投入资金的期望收益,The expected return on invested capital is the NOPAT expected next period divided by the amount of capital that is currently invested: 投入资金的期望收益是指下一时期的期望税后净营业利润（NOPAT）除以本期投入资金的数量所得到的值。,MVA in Terms of Expected ROIC用投入资金期望收益表达的市场增加价值（MVA）,If the spread between the expect

26、ed return, EROICt, and the required return, WACC, is positive, then MVA is positive and growth makes MVA larger. The opposite is true if the spread is negative. 如果投入资金的期望收益与加权平均资金成本之间的差额为正，那么市场增加价值（MVA）也为正，销售增长就会提高市场增加价值（MVA）。如果差额为负，就会出现相反的结果。,The Impact of Growth on MVA销售增长对MVA的影响,A company has two

27、 divisions. Both have current sales of $1,000, current expected growth of 5%, and a WACC of 10%. 某公司有两个部门，当期销售收入都是$1,000，当期预计增长率为5%，加权平均资金成本为10%。 Division A has high profitability (OP=6%) but high capital requirements (CR=78%). A部门具有较高的获利能力（ 营业获利能力OP=6% ），但占用资金也较多（资金需要量CR比重= 78% ） Division B has low

28、 profitability (OP=4%) but low capital requirements (CR=27%). B部门的获利能力较低（ 营业获利能力OP=4% ），但占用资金也较少（资金需要量CR比重= 27% ）,What is the impact on MVA if growth goes from 5% to 6%? 如果销售增长率由5%变为6%，会对市场增加值MVA产生什么影响？,Division A （A部门） Division B（B部门） OP 营业获利能力 6% 6% 4% 4% CR 资金需要量78%78%27%27% Growth 增长率5%6%5%6% MV

29、A 市场增加值(300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0 Note: MVA is calculated using the formula on slide 12-27. 注： 市场增加值MVA的计算采用幻灯片12-27上的公式。,Expected ROIC and MVA 预计的投资收益和市场增加值,Division A（A部门） Division B（B部门） Capital0 资金0$780$780$270$270 Growth 增长率5%6%5%6% Sales1 销售收入1$1,050$1,060 $1,050$1,060 NOPAT1税后净营业利润1$63$63.6$42

30、$42.4 EROIC0预计的投资收益08.1%8.2%15.6%15.7% MVA市场附加值 (300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0,Analysis of Growth Strategies销售增长战略的分析,The expected ROIC of Division A is less than the WACC, so the division should postpone growth efforts until it improves EROIC by reducing capital requirements (e.g., reducing inventory) a

31、nd/or improving profitability. A部门的预计投资收益要低于加权平均资金成本，所以该部门应推迟采取销售增长策略，等到其通过减少资金占用（例如减少存货）而改善预计投资收益，以及/或改善获利能力以后再采取相应行动。 The expected ROIC of Division B is greater than the WACC, so the division should continue with its growth plans. B部门的预计投资收益要高于加权平均资金成本，所以该部门应续执行销售增长计划。,Two Primary Mechanisms of Co

32、rporate Governance公司治理的两个基本机制,“Stick” “大棒” Provisions in the charter that affect takeovers. 公司章程中影响接管的条款 Composition of the board of directors. 董事会的构成 “Carrot: Compensation plans. “胡萝卜”：补偿计划,Entrenched Management僵化管理,Occurs when there is little chance that poorly performing managers will be replaced

33、. 如果业绩不好的经理被替换的可能性很小，那么就会出现僵化管理。 Two causes: 两个原因： Anti-takeover provisions in the charter 公司章程中的反接管条款 Weak board of directors 董事会软弱,How are entrenched managers harmful to shareholders?难以触动的经理人员如何损害股东的利益？,Management consumes perks: 管理层享受额外待遇： Lavish offices and corporate jets 豪华的办公室和企业公务飞机 Excessively large staffs 庞大、臃肿的员工队伍 Memberships at country clubs 乡村俱乐部的成员资格 Management accepts projects (or acquisitions) to make firm larger, even if MVA goes down. 管理层接受某