《企业风险管理》PPT课件.ppt

1、WELCOME Wolf-Bernhard Kersten,May 29th FUZHOU UNIVERSITY,2020/9/14,1,企业风险管理中国企业海外投资的先进管理理念福州大学，管理学院,经济学教授 柯朗 中欧国际咨询 天津，上海，汉堡 2011年5月29日 版权所有 ,2020/9/14,2,Abbreviation (1)缩写词,BMT= Basic Management Tools 基础管理工具 CDS= Credit Default Swaps 信用违约掉期 CEIBS = China Europe International Business School 中欧国际商学院

2、 CEO= Chief Executive Officer 首席执行官 CO2 = Carbon (chem.) 二氧化碳 CRO = Chief Risk Officer 首席风险管控官 CSO= Chief Strategic Officer 首席战略管控官 EBIT = Earnings Before Interests + Taxes 息税前收益 ECUST= East China University of Science + Technology 华东理工大学 EDA= Economic Development Area 经济开发区 EDP = Expert Data Pool 专

3、业数据库,2020/9/14,3,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Abbreviation (2)缩写词,EMBA= Executive MBA 高级工商管理硕士 ERM= Enterprise Risk Management 企业风险管理 EU = European Union 欧盟 EVA = Economic Value Added 经济附加值 GDP= Gross Domestic Product 国民生产总值 HR = Human Resources

4、 人力资源 IMBA = International MBA 国际工商管理硕士 IT = Information Technology 信息技术 JV = Joint Venture 合资企业 Ltd = Limited 有限公司 M+A = Mergers + Acquisition 合并 + 收购,2020/9/14,4,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Abbreviation (3)缩写词,MBA = Master of Business Adminis

5、tration 工商管理硕士 p+l = profit + loss account 损益账户 Q+A = Questions + Answers 提问与回答 QTC= Qingdao Technical College 青岛职业技术学院 RMB= Renmimbi Yuan 人民币，元 SWOT= Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats 优势，劣势，机遇与危机 TCM= Traditional Chinese Medicine 传统中药 UK= United Kingdom 英国，大不列颠联合王国 US = United States 美国

6、 USA = United States of America 美利坚和公国 USD = US Dollar 美元,2020/9/14,5,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (1) 目录,Chapter 1: Current global Economic and Political challenges 第一章：目前全球经济与政治所面临的挑战 Financial + Banking Crises 金融业与银行业危机 Political Crise

7、s 政治危机 Natural Disasters 自然灾害 Interim Result 中期结论,2020/9/14,6,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (2)目录,Chapter 2: Theory + Concept of ERM (1) 第二章：企业风险管理的原理与概念(1) The key Principles of ERM 企业风险管理的关键原则 Advantages of ERM 企业风险管理的优点 Implementation o

8、f ERM 企业风险管理的实行,2020/9/14,7,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (3)目录,Chapter 2: Theory + Concept of ERM (2) 第二章：企业风险管理的原理与概念(2) Components of ERM 企业风险管理的组成 Risk Correlations 风险相关性 Risk Capital 风险资本,2020/9/14,8,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professo

9、r of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (4) 目录,Chapter 3: ERM + Overseas investments （1） 第三章：企业风险管理与海外投资 Reality in Overseas Investments 海外投资的现状 Major risks in Overseas Investments Project Management 海外投资项目管理的主要风险 Special focus on credit risk 特别关注信用风险,2020/9/14,9,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KE

10、RSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (5) 目录,Chapter 3: ERM + Overseas investments （2） 第三章：企业风险管理与海外投资 Country rating 国家评级 Rating Agencies 评级机构,2020/9/14,10,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (6) 目录,Chapter 4:

11、Result 第四章：结论,2020/9/14,11,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (7)目录,Chapter 5: Q + A 第五章：提问与回答,2020/9/14,12,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Agenda (8)目录,Annex: About the lecturer 参考：讲师简介,2020/

12、9/14,13,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Chapter 1第一章Current global Economic and Political Challenges目前全球经济与政治所面临的挑战,2020/9/14,14,Current global economic + political challenges (1)目前全球经济与政治所面临的挑战,“The Wind of Change” “改革之风” The whole political + eco

13、nomical world is in a severe transition due to the aftermath of the financial crises 在金融危机后，整个金融与政治世界都在经历着严峻的转型期。,2020/9/14,15,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Current global economic + political challenges (2)目前全球经济与政治所面临的挑战,Due to the globalisatio

14、n this crises leads towards highly unpredictable chain risk reactions 由于全球化，这场危机将会导致不可预期的连锁风险反应。,2020/9/14,16,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (1)金融业与银行业危机,The gambling Banking industry (starting from US) caused the global

15、 financial disaster 银行业的投机行为导致了全球金融危机 （始于美国）,2020/9/14,17,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (2)金融业与银行业危机,The private + the Government supervising and auditing institutions failed completely 个人与政府的监管及审核制度完全失效,2020/9/14,18,柯朗

16、,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (3)金融业与银行业危机,The USA carries excessive debts for the next 30 years and its next generation will have to shoulder these burdens. 由于巨大的债务，美国未来的30年要在还债中度过， 以至于必须要下一代来承担这一重担。,2020/9/14,19,柯朗,Wolf

17、-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (4)金融业与银行业危机,Japan covers 200 % debts based on its GDP. How can they survive? 日本也欠下了超过其国民生产总值200%的债务。 他们怎样才能继续生存？,2020/9/14,20,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consu

18、ltant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (5)金融业与银行业危机,How to get rid of the government debts? The US print money and the rest of the world has to buy and to rescue the US. But for how long? 如何摆脱政府债务困境？ 美国印刷美元，其他国家被迫购买并以此来拯救美国。 但是这能持续多久？,2020/9/14,21,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics,

19、 International Consultant EU China,Financial + Banking crises (6)金融业与银行业危机,Macro economic an inflation strategy would be the historical answer. But inflation kills debts and wealth! 纵观历史 答案将是宏观经济层面的通货膨胀。 但是通货膨胀不仅消灭债务更消灭财富！,2020/9/14,22,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International

20、Consultant EU China,Political crises政治危机,The interdependency between economic + political crises shows: Political crises lead to economical crises and vice versa 经济危机与政治危机的相关性显示： 政治危机导致经济危机，反之亦然。,2020/9/14,23,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The EU

21、crises (1)欧盟危机,Greece, Ireland, Portugal are under the EU financial rescue - umbrella. Technically these countries are bankrupt. 希腊，爱尔兰和葡萄牙虽然处于欧盟财政救援的保护伞下， 但是，理论上讲，他们都已经破产了。,2020/9/14,24,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The EU crises (2)欧盟危机,Who is

22、next? Spain, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Belgium, and ? 谁将会是下一个？ 西班牙，意大利，匈牙利，波兰，罗马尼亚，比利时，还是?,2020/9/14,25,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The EU crises (3)欧盟危机,In reality the EU zone country rescue - program is an EU - banking rescue program,

23、due to their huge Government bond positions in their balance sheets 由于在其（银行）资产负债表中政府公债数额巨大， 欧盟国家救援计划事实上是欧盟银行业救援计划。,2020/9/14,26,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The North African + Middle East crises (1)北非与中东危机,Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, B

24、ahrain, Iran, Iraq all countries show war, riots, revolutions and huge social, political, economical disasters. 突尼斯，埃及，利比亚，叙利亚，也门，巴林，伊朗，伊拉克 这些国家都在经历着战争，暴动与革命 以及巨大的社会，政治，经济灾难。,2020/9/14,27,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The North African + Middle E

25、ast crises (2)北非与中东危机,Who is next? Saudi Arabia? 谁将会是下一个？ 沙特阿拉伯？,2020/9/14,28,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The Central African crises (1)中非危机,Somalia, Ethiopia, Namibia, Ivory Cote about 40 % of the African nations are economical “dead”. 索马里，埃塞俄

26、比亚，纳米比亚，象牙科特 大约40%的非洲国家都已经经济“死亡”。,2020/9/14,29,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,The Central African crises (2)中非危机,Who is next? How fast will the virus of independency + democracy spread over Africa? 谁将会是下一个？ 独立与民主之风在非洲的蔓延将会有多快？,2020/9/14,30,柯朗,Wolf

27、-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Natural Disasters (1)自然灾害,The leading global Re Insurers predict: natural disasters will increase with 70 % based on year 2011 within the next 5 years 根据全球顶尖再保险公司预测： 以2011年为基准，在未来的五年中， 自然灾害将会增长70%。,2020/9/14,31,柯朗,Wolf-Bern

28、hard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Natural Disasters (2)自然灾害,The climate change will impact our living standards. The CO2 - output and the melting of the ice on the poles cant be stopped anymore. 气候变化将会影响我们的生活水准。 二氧化碳过度排放造成的温室效应及 两极冰川消融将无法阻止。,2020/9/14,32,柯朗,Wolf

29、-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Natural Disasters (3)自然灾害,Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Atomic radiation disasters like in Japan, (loss of 500 billion USD) will happen in other regions. China builds the centre of the most dangerous earthquake probability 日本地震，海啸

30、，核辐射灾难造成了近5000亿美元的损失。 类似情况还将会发生在其它地区。 中国一些地区也处于地震活跃带。,2020/9/14,33,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,And how about China? (1)中国呢？,The Chinese economic dependency on the US and EU is tremendous (over 50 % of its GDP) 中国经济过于依赖美国和欧盟 “超过了国民生产总值的50%”,2020

31、/9/14,34,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,And how about China? (2)中国呢？,If the US and/or the EU face major economic problems, China will be hit with a certain time lag. 如果美国或者/和欧盟面临着较大的经济问题， 中国将会在一定时间段内受到冲击。,2020/9/14,35,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Pro

32、fessor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,And how about China? (3)中国呢？,How is China prepared? A famous US - University predicts a China Crash in 2015 中国准备好了吗？ 据美国一所著名大学预测，中国全面快速发展局面 将会在2015年崩盘。,2020/9/14,36,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU Ch

33、ina,China Crash 2015 ? (1)2015年中国快速发展崩盘？,The research paper analyses the situation of 4 previous booming nations since 1957: Germany, Argentina, Japan, Korea. In a 2nd step it compared the results with the situation in China 该研究举例分析了自1957年以来德国，阿根廷， 日本及韩国的快速发展情况.而后的第二步， 他们将得出的结论与中国的现状相对比。,2020/9/14,3

34、7,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,China Crash 2015 ? (2)2015年中国快速发展崩盘？,It found 9 statistical facts: 研究发现9项数据： 7 facts have a strong impact to increase the crash probability 2 facts have an impact to decrease the crash probability (The prediction i

35、s based on a quantitative multi-variance regression analysis) 其中7项可严重增长快速发展崩盘可能性， 另外两项可降低快速发展崩盘可能性。 (该预测结果基于多元变化回归分析法。),2020/9/14,38,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,China Crash 2015 ? (3)2015年中国快速发展崩盘？,The research paper predicts a Crash probabilit

36、y of 71 % in 2015 in China. 该研究显示2015年， 中国快速发展崩盘的可能性将高达71%。,2020/9/14,39,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,China Crash 2015 ? (4)2015年中国快速发展崩盘？,One of the 2 decreasing facts stipulates: If the booming nation has reached a high level international edu

37、cation system, then the probability ratio decreases. 其中一项可降低崩盘可能性因素指出： 若该快速发展国家可提高其教育程度至国际化水平， 则可有效降低崩盘可能性。,2020/9/14,40,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,China Crash 2015 ? (5)2015年中国快速发展崩盘？,How is the reality of the Chinese education system today?

38、If it is far away from international standard, how can it be improved? 然而，目前中国的教育水平是怎样的呢？ 如果我们教育水平还远远不及国际化标准， 那我们该如果提高我们的水平呢？,2020/9/14,41,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Questions (1)问题,How is China prepared? The China Risk Report indicates about

39、20 major weaknesses. The economic consequences following these major risks bear huge financial burdens. 中国准备得如何？ 中国风险调查报告显示大约20种主要风险。 这些主要风险所带来的经济后果会造成巨大的经济负担。,2020/9/14,42,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Questions (2)问题,Is that US research reliabl

40、e? It is certainly a valid statistical approach. Its likelihood is remarkable. What can or must China do now? 这份来自美国的报告可信吗？ 当然这是一份在数据上十分可信的研究报告。 它的可能性是确实须要引起重视。 中国能够或者必须做些什么呢？,2020/9/14,43,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Interim results (1)中期结论,Spe

41、ed and knowledge today are the key factors for an enterprise to survive 今天，速度与知识是决定企业生死存亡的关键因素。,2020/9/14,44,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Interim results (2)中期结论,“No more the big eat the small, rather than the fast eat the slow” “不再是大吃小， 而是以快制慢”

42、,2020/9/14,45,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Interim results (3)中期结论,The only constant in our global life is the permanent but speeding change of increasing risks. 在我们全球化生活中唯一不变就是 不断增长的风险的快速变化。,2020/9/14,46,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of E

43、conomics, International Consultant EU China,Interim results (4)中期结论,Terms like: severity, probability, exposure, volatility, correlations will become a major part of the daily standard language for Top - and Risk Managers 像严重性，可能性，曝光度，波动，相关性这类术语 将会成为高层管理者和风险管理者常用的日常标准语言。,2020/9/14,47,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhar

44、d KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Interim results (5)中期结论,However: Where there are risks there are chances too. Where there are losers there are winners though. You can only be a winner, if your Enterprise Knowledge Management is top 然而： 风险与机遇并存。 有输家就有赢家。 如果你的企业知识管

45、理处于顶尖水平， 那么固然你将成为赢家。,2020/9/14,48,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Chapter 2第二章Theory + Concept of ERM企业风险管理的原理与概念,2020/9/14,49,Theory + Concept of ERM (1)企业风险管理的原理与概念,To deal with risks is the key job for a Top Manager The question is: how to deal

46、and who deals? 应对风险是高层管理人员的核心工作。 问题是：怎样应对和谁来应对？,2020/9/14,50,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (2)企业风险管理的原理与概念,The old risk concept was a “silo approach” Everybody handled the risks in his own sector and only when they occurre

47、d. 以往的风险管理概念是“独立方案”。 而且仅仅是当风险发生时， 每个人才负责应对自己的部分。,2020/9/14,51,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (3)企业风险管理的原理与概念,That was one of the reasons why the insurance industry boomed over the past decades. This way of thinking is out.

48、这就是为什么在过去的几十年间保险业如此兴盛的原因之一。 但是这种想法已经过时了。,2020/9/14,52,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (4)企业风险管理的原理与概念,The ERM concept regards a company as a human being: Body, soul, heart, emotions, energy all is one and interdependent. The

49、 ERM concept follows the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) thinking. 企业风险管理理论将企业看作为一个自然人： 身体，灵魂，心，情感，精力 浑然一体，相互依赖。 企业风险管理理论遵循的是传统中医思维。,2020/9/14,53,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (5)企业风险管理的原理与概念,ERM therefore is a mathemat

50、ical matrix approach. It always asks: if then It is a typical regression equation - a chain reaction system. 因此，企业风险管理是一种数学矩阵方法。 它总是在问：如果那么 它是典型的回归方程式 一种连锁反应体系。,2020/9/14,54,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (6)企业风险管理的原理与概念,ER

51、M classifies the company in internal external stakeholders. Both groups fight for their conflicting interests. The job of the Top Management is to handle and to balance these interests. 企业风险管理将企业分为内部和外部利益相关者。 这两个团体都在为冲突的利益而斗争。 高层管理者的工作就是处理和平衡这些利益。,2020/9/14,55,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of

52、Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (7)企业风险管理的原理与概念,Internally, all functions and departments have permanently to consider the impacts and interdependencies on all other levels 在内部，所有职能和部门都要不断的考虑对其他层面的 影响及相互依赖性。,2020/9/14,56,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Eco

53、nomics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (8)企业风险管理的原理与概念,That is why ERM is also called “Integrated Enterprise Risk Management Approach” 这就是为什么企业风险管理也可称为 “综合企业风险管理方法”。,2020/9/14,57,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + C

54、oncept of ERM (9)企业风险管理的原理与概念,Problem: It takes about 3 years until the whole company understands and follows the ERM concept. It is a never ending process. It costs money in its implementation stage. It needs huge training efforts and it starts from top to down. But it brings big advantages. 问题是： 要

55、整个企业理解和遵循企业风险管理大概需要3年时间， 整个过程没有结尾，在实行阶段需要大量资金， 需要投入大量的培训，改变只能自上而下发生。 但是它可为企业带来巨大的利益。,2020/9/14,58,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (10)企业风险管理的原理与概念,In the West, we offer special ERM - MBA curriculum That study takes 3 years,

56、and we offer that for production sector, banking insurance business (actuary science). 在西方，我们提供特殊的企业风险管理-工商管理硕士-课程。 整个课程用时三年，我们提供生产部门，银行业，保险业务（精算学).,2020/9/14,59,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (11)企业风险管理的原理与概念,ERM science t

57、ext books contain of about 10000 pages. pre-conditions are: University study + business experience + three languages 企业风险管理教科书大约有一万页内容。 学习的前提是：大学毕业，有工作经验和会三种语言。,2020/9/14,60,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (12)企业风险管理的原理与概念,E

58、RM is the most advanced Management Concept to date. All FORTUNE 500 companies follow the ERM approach. 企业风险管理是目前最为先进的管理理念。 世界500强企业均在使用企业风险管理方案。,2020/9/14,61,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (13)企业风险管理的原理与概念,In the US and EU,

59、 ERM is compulsory For listed companies due to laws, e.g.: 在美国和欧洲， 有关法律规定所有上市公司必须执行企业风险管理 US: SOX 404 ( Sarbanes Oxley Act No. 404 ) 美国： 2002年萨班斯-奥克利斯法案的404条款 Germany : Act of Risk + Transparency 德国：风险与透明度法案,2020/9/14,62,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU China,Theory + Concept of ERM (14)企业风险管理的原理与概念,EU: Risk + Solvency Solution Act 欧盟：风险 + 清偿能力解决法案 Banking industry: Basle 1, 2, 3 Accord 银行业：巴塞尔协议1，2，3 Insurance Industry: Solvency 2 Law 保险业：清偿能力制度修改草案,2020/9/14,63,柯朗,Wolf-Bernhard KERSTEN