摩根士丹利2009经济报告—忍耐是一种美德.ppt

1、忍耐是一种美德,看平市场，等待经济加速的迹象出现,Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Jerry LouJerry.L+852 2848-6511,Research Asia/Pacific,China Strategy,November 28, 2008,Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a

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5、account.,观点小结,市场见底,市场已经触及U型底部，底部过程漫长而波动剧烈 底部中两对矛盾的冲突，平衡，再冲突 便宜的估值与“减杠” 政策预期与衰退恐惧,09年核心问题: 经济何时加速,周期性行业看经济增速高低，而非估值是否便宜。 A股周期性行业占87.6% 37% 金融:银行、保险、房地产 23% 能源 and 炼油 22.8% 金属、原材料和工业 4.8% 可选消费品: 汽车, 纺织, IT, 等. A股非周期性行业占8.3% 0.8% 电信 3.5% 必须消费品 4% 公用事业：电力,Note: Cyclical Stocks Index includes consumer di

6、scretionary, energy, financials, information technology, Materials, industrials. Source: Factset, Morgan Stanley Research,周期性行业走势与GDP增速,跨周期投资策略矩阵,防御性行业,周期性行业,长期趋势与短期事件,长期乐观,老生常谈的长期故事 : 产业升级 内需启动 城市化 当金融危机的尘埃落定，世界会惊奇发现中国不再是G7的“相关国家”，而跃升为重要伙伴。 长期价值投资者应该逐步建仓，毕竟市场估值已经体现了足够悲观情绪。 股价反映了未来5年复合增长率为负的可能。 以两年的

7、持有期来看，投资者将获得较好回报。,短期中性,估值便宜 信心重建中 但是，尽管底部已见，上涨仍需时日。 投资者不能忽视的问题： 全球风险规避与去杠杆化 全球各国经济同步下滑 潜在企业利润缩水与预测下调 风雨飘摇的房地产市场 金融、银行业暗藏危机 复杂的政治、经济环境，导致政策存在失误风险,经济向下中的几条感悟,规避破产风险为第一要义； 长期的故事在经济繁荣期才被解读； 政府救援，意味着基本面很差； 通胀回落，意味着衰退的开始； 盈利质量和估值会跑赢增长型股票。,全球首次G7衰退与新兴市场放缓同步进行,全球GDP预测 最新数据,As of Nov, 2008; Source: Morgan St

8、anley Research,Source: Morgan Stanley Research,全球利润下滑,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,美国盈利是欧洲盈利的先导指标,政策反映: 有效但不足够,全球央行集体救市 集体行动应对全球危机 承诺进一步合作，采取任何必要行动 几条信念-不能转牛的原因 财政政策不能改变经济周期 全球的定律，中国也不能创造神话 政府无法战胜市场 政府可以阻止危机，但无法改变市场的方向 中国经济已然庞大与开放，复苏需要时间,4万亿经济刺激方案: 避免硬着陆,房价下跌20%，销量将下跌61%，投资将下降65%2009年留给我们1.

9、52万亿的投资缺口。 4万亿平均到每年，不过刚好抵消这一缺口。 GDP若要保8争9，需要进一步刺激方案出台。,US: 房地产投资与FAI下降快于房价,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,China: 房价与销量回归理性,Note: Forecast based on Morgan Stanleys regression model; Source: Morgan Stanley Research,地方政府支出是中央政府的3倍； 房地产低迷将极大限制地方政府收入与开支； 政府很可能低估了地方财政收入的下滑速度。,快速上升的地方政府支出,Note: meas

10、ured as % of GDPSource: Morgan Stanley Research,房地产投资和地方政府支出高度相关,Source: Morgan Stanley Research,土地出让金对经济增长的贡献,Note: contribution is measured as % in incremental parts; economy spending includes infrastructure, agriculture, science and healthcare, etc.Source: Morgan Stanley Research,资金来源受困于房地产低迷,面对惨

11、淡现实，为何仍旧敢言底部?,股价是预期的产物。极端悲观与激进政策往往预示市场底部。 悲观: 宏观增长预期快速下滑 经济学家大幅调低GDP增长预测 消费下滑 全国房地产价格下跌 银行利差收窄，社会逐步关注资产质量 盈利预测大幅下调 激进政策：全球联手降息.,消费与市场同步见底,利率降低,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,基本面：继续恶化,早期全面放缓信号：出口、汽车、旅游、航空,旅游,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,航空,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,商用车销售,S

12、ource: China Auto Market, Morgan Stanley Research,出口,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,中期全面放缓信号: 可选消费、工业生产、零售和房地产,工业生产,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,零售增速见顶,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,房地产销售,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,可选消费,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 未完待续?,

13、2008年投资增长抵消出口下滑，消费相对稳定。这种情况会继续下去吗？ 钢铁出口率创新高，预示投资会持续放缓。,钢铁出口上升预示国内需求下滑,Source: Wind, Morgan Stanley Research,采购经理指数垂直下降,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,发电增速为负,Note: MS estimates on Oct 08 reading; Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,中国房地产：世界最后一个资产泡沫正在破裂,价格战兴起 销量低迷 房地产投资占总投资的1/3强 间接影响 个人财富 金融行

14、业增长与资产质量 发展商破产 钢铁及其他建筑材料,Note: Weighted average data of four cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Guangzhou is not included in Oct-07 and Aug-08Source: The Ministry of Land and Resources P.R.C.,房地产：至今尚无政策救市成功的先例,中央 (第一套普通住房) 交易成本: 大约房价的 1.5%； 减税: 契税从1.5%降为1%。免征印花税和土地增值税。 月供:下降

15、9% 利率: 商业贷款优惠利率放宽至7折（原为8.5折） 首付：从30%下降为？ 地方政府 南京: 买方补贴(房价的0.5%1%） 杭州：住房公积金贷款首付下调为20%，买房获得杭州户口（某些行政区），退还交易税。 上海:提高住房公积金贷款上限 成都:提高住房公积金贷款上限 ，退还契税 长沙: 降低交易税;提高住房公积金贷款上限 厦门: 放宽普通住房标准,98年政策对比（以上海为例） 买房退还个人所得税 将买房支出从家庭应纳税收入中扣除 房地产熊市一直持续到2001年; 结论: 刺激需求，振兴房地产需要很长时间 政府若要防止房价下跌，必须限制土地供应,盈利: 更多的失望,经济 盈利增长波动幅度

16、大于GDP，单方向保持一致。 太多例子说明，GDP低于长期趋势，即便绝对数字较高，市场也都处于熊市。 中国GDP增长低于7.1%,企业盈利将全面负增长。 7.5% GDP 增长(摩根经济学家最新预测) 下，企业业绩仅能增长1.2%. 最脆弱行业: 银行、保险、房地产、IT,金融: 下一只落下的靴子,2009年负面影响全面体现- GDP 增速放缓, 房地产萧条，坏账增加,随着经济问题的爆发，金融负面信息将全面体现 经济学家大幅下调GDP预测 (低于8%) 消费下滑 全国房价下跌15% 银行息差收窄，并开始计提坏账 银行股占全部A股的26%，将拖累大盘表现,银行息差处于历史峰值,房地产销售低迷,S

17、ource: Morgan Stanley Research,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,中国银行业面临向下风险,经济周期向下时，银行绝不可能独善其身。 09年减税效应消失 当经济萧条、企业支付能力下降时，银行息差将收窄 资产质量将出现问题 从估值来看（PB），相比国际银行，中国银行仍不便宜,银行压力测试: 盈利和坏账存在风险,Source: Morgan Stanley Research,中国银行业：PB仍旧偏高,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,银行净息差面临收窄风险,息差收窄可能的原因 不对称减息

18、贷款利率优惠（政策刺激） 存款定期化 NPL 上升 投资损失,Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research,房地产：消费者向来追涨杀跌,房地产市场的需求严重依赖价格变动，相比价格的绝对水平，消费者对价格变动更加敏感。 房地产市场需求是价格与价格变动的二元函数(Demand=D1(p)+D2(dp)。,消费者对价格变动更加敏感,即使房价下跌30%，仍旧不便宜,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research; As of Oct 08,Sourc

19、e: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research; As of Oct 08,量价齐跌，而非价跌量升,销量恢复需要数年,短期来看,两家齐跌。因为D2消失（以价格变动为决策函数的需求）。 长期来看，房价跌到位后，销量会逐步恢复，但是要需要多年才能恢复。,量价齐跌后 销量需要数年才能恢复,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research; As of Oct 08,周期性行业: 仍在下降通道,周期性行业的投资原则,销售下降时，成本节约毫无疑义 周期性行业是典型的宏观趋势品种: 估值毫无疑义 强周期性股票没有合理的估值，只有合理的方向 预期行业进入景气周期就

20、买，否则就卖出 没有特许权价值和技术价值的强周期性行业甚至没有持有价值 区别对待周期性行业：特许权与商品 金融 银行、保险、房地产，能源和原材料采掘，拥有特许权价值； 交通运输 航空, 海运, 港口等，部分特许权价值； 资本品 机械与大型设备， 技术价值； 商品 原材料加工、能源提炼、建筑材料等，无特许权价值。,周期性行业：趋势投资而非价值投资,投资周期性行业必须耐心等待GDP重新加速的信号，整个市场也是这样，因为A股市场87%是周期性行业。,Note: Cyclical Stocks Index includes consumer discretionary ,energy, financi

21、als, information technology ,Materials ,industrials. Source: Factset, Morgan Stanley Research,周期性行业走势与GDP增长,Note: Steel index calculated with Maanshan ,Anguang andShougang. Source: Factset, Morgan Stanley Research,钢铁行业: 典型的趋势投资,市场: 终于便宜了,估值：足够便宜,MSCI China P/B: At Record Discount to Long-Term Trend,

22、A-share P/B: No Longer Expensive,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,Market PEG Suggests Pessimism as in Asian Financial Crisis,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,MSCI China P/E,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,各行业估值,A-share,Source: IBES, Wind, Morgan

23、Stanley Research,MSCI China,卖方 过度乐观,我们认为09年的卖方对于业绩增长的预期很难实现 接下来我们将看到更多的业绩下调,A-share,Source: Wind, Morgan Stanley Research; As of Dec 3, 2008,MSCI China,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research; As of Dec 3, 2008,买方：非常悲观,买方比卖方悲观的多 3阶段模型的主要假设 ERP-8% 无风险利率: A股：3.3%， 海外股票： 2.3% 第一增长期: 5 年 第二增长期: 5 年 永续增长率:

24、 2%,A-share,Source: Wind, Morgan Stanley Research,Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley Research,MSCI China,市场: U型，而非V型,V-型: S Source: Factset, Morgan Stanley Research,Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,近期策略 买入防御性且便宜行业，卖出周期性且高估值行业,防御性且便宜 电信 必选消费 防御性但昂贵 医药 耐用消费品 强周期但便宜 工业 原材料 强周期且昂贵 IT 金融：银行、保险、房地产,The inf

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