Chap001_lgm.ppt

1、CHAPTER ONE,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.,Textbook,中文版：斯蒂芬H佩因曼，2005，财务报表分析与证券定价，中国财政经济出版社，第2版 英文版：Stephen Penman，2010，Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation，第4版http:/highered.mcgraw-,The Aim of the Course,To develop and apply te

2、chnologies for valuing firms and strategic planning on the basis of financial statement.,1-3,What Will You Learn from the Course,How intrinsic values are calculated What determines a firms value How businesses are analyzed to assess the value they create How financial analysis is developed for strat

3、egy and planning The role of financial statements in determining firms values How to pull apart the financial statements to get at the relevant information How ratio analysis is employed in valuation How growth is analyzed and valued The relevance of cash flow and accrual accounting information How

4、to calculate what the P/E ratio should be How to calculate what the price-to-book ratio should be How to do business forecasting How to assess the quality of the accounting How to evaluate risk and return,1-4,What Professions Will You be Qualified for,Equity analyst (investment bank) Credit analyst

5、(credit rating agency) Loan officers (commercial bank) Broker Consultant Investment banker (M challenge market prices Active investing: Alpha prices gravitate to fundamentals, but that can take some time,1-28,The Application of FSA: The Professional Analyst,The outside analyst understands the firms

6、value in order to advise outside investors Equity analyst Credit analyst The inside analyst evaluates plans to invest within the firm to generate value The outside analyst values the firm. The inside analyst values strategies for the firm.,1-29,The Application of FSA: Value-Based Management,Test str

7、ategic ideas to see if they generate value 1. Develop strategic ideas and plans 2. Forecast payoffs from the strategy 3. Use forecasted payoffs to discover value creation Applications: Corporate strategy Mergers & acquisitions Buyouts & spinoffs Restructurings Capital budgeting Manage implemented st

8、rategies by examining decisions in terms of the value added Reward managers based on value added,1-30,Outline of the Book,Parts IThe Foundations Valuation models Incorporating financial statements into valuation IIAnalysis of Financial Statements IIIForecasting and Valuation IVAccounting Analysis VC

9、ost of Capital and Risk,1-31,Sneak Preview,Dividend Capitalization:,Accounting:,1-32,Forecast Period,Beyond the Horizon,0,4 Years,Source: Penman and Sougiannis “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation”. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1998: 343-382.,Valuatio

10、n Error (%),Used to estimate implicit price,Forecasts available for next 4 Years,1-33,Forecast Period,Beyond the Horizon,4 Years,Source: Penman and Sougiannis “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation”. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1998: 343-382.,Valuation

11、 Error (%),0,1-34,Forecast Period,Beyond the Horizon,0,4 Years,Source: Penman and Sougiannis “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation”. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1998: 343-382.,Valuation Error (%),1-35,Forecast Period,Beyond the Horizon,0,4 Years,Sourc

12、e: Penman and Sougiannis “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation”. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1998: 343-382.,Valuation Error (%),1-36,Forecast Period,Beyond the Horizon,0,4 Years,Source: Penman and Sougiannis “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation”. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1998: 343-382.,Valuation Error (%),1-37,CURRENT AND PAST FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (analysis of information, trends, comparisons, etc.),FORECASTING,FORECASTS OF CASH FLOWS,DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS,VALUE OF THE FIRM/ DIVISION,DI