抓住中国可再生能源的市场机遇ppt 22

1、安源易如国际科技发展(北京)有限公司Azure International Technology & Development (Beijing) Limited1Chinas Sustainable Energy Market抓住中国可再生能源的市场机遇IntroductionAzure International is a specialized advisory and investment firm focused on the rapidly growing market for sustainable energy technologies in China. Our focus l

2、ies in sustainable technologies that are commercially viable today, or that have excellent near term market potential.Clients and partners include:VC and Private Equity firms ManufacturersOil & Gas Majors BanksUtilities Large and small companiesProject Developers Foreign and Chinese companiesOctober

3、 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 2 of 22Chinas Energy SituationChina second largest consumer of energy globally China now second largest importer of oil (41% projected for 2004)Demand growth is well above expectations Shortage in generation capacity and tra

4、nsportation bottlenecks Massive capacity expansionprogram announced Energy consumption to double by 2020Transportation market explodingEnergy intensity per unit of GDP (PPP basis) very high Efficiency improving but not fast enoughOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最

5、大的资料库下载Slide 3 of 22IEA, 2004(Total installed capacity : 385 GW)00.22%24.0%煤炭 74%核能 1.6%水电 24%1.6%天然气 0.2%0.2%可再生能源 0.2%74.0%00.22%24.0%煤炭 74%核能 1.6%水电 24%1.6%天 然 气 0.2%0.2%可再生能源 0.2%74.0%煤炭核能 1.6%水电 24%天然气 0.2%可再生能源0.2%Chinas Energy Situation (contd)Environmental degradation is becoming a national

6、priority China has 9 out of the 10 top most polluted cities in the world International commitments China 2nd largest GHG emitter UNEP Director: “Chinas economic goals environmentally unachievable” due to resource constraints Fuel efficiency standards, emissions standards, LNG buses and taxisChina st

7、ill highly dependent on coal 70%, mining costs increasingOil and gas resources are limited; Government is looking to diversify energy supply for economic, environmental and security reasons LNG, purchasing of overseas assets Renewables, other alternativesChinas Energy Mix0.2%24.0%1.6%0.2%74.0%Octobe

8、r 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 4 of 22Coal74%Nuclear 1.6%Hydro 24%Gas0.2%RE0.2%Drivers for Sustainable Energy in ChinaHuge need for new energy resources to feed economic growthDiversification from traditional fossil fuel due to local and global resource

9、constraints (energy security)Increasing environmental awarenessChina central government preparing roll out of critical policy supportIncreasing localization of world class sustainable energy technology capabilities in China (especially Wind and PV)October 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来

10、自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 5 of 22Clean & Renewable Energy Technologies燃料电池太阳能热能生物质能地热能风力发电小水电氢能核能太阳能光伏发电October 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 6 of 22Global Forecast for Renewable Energy Medium TermShell International, People & Connections - Global Sc

11、enarios to 2020, 2002.October 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 7 of 22Global Forecast for Wind & PV Near TermGlobal Market Growth: 2003 - 2013RMB 3920032013RMB 255Solar PVRMB 62RMB 394Wind Power050100150200250300350400450RMB millionsOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Bei

12、jing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 8 of 22Renewable energy in ChinaRapid growth from a very low base False starts in the pastEnergy bureau created in NDRC - Renewable energy has been put into the national energy strategyGoal of 100GW of renewable energy capacity by 2020 ( 10%

13、of total capacity)2020 Goals:20 GW of wind, 50 GW small hydro, 1-2 GW solar PV, 15 GWof biomass, and14GW of othersLarge hydro well developed, continuing growthThe Nationals People Congress has agreed to issue a renewable energy promotion law draft being developed by CRED, Tsinghua University, and ot

14、her partners under NDRC leadershipOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 9 of 22Barriers to Adoption of Sustainable Energy Technologies in ChinaHigher upfront cost, subsidization of traditional energy (same as in developed countries)Marketing AwarenessInco

15、mplete assessment of renewable resources Lack of domestic suppliersStandards and testing facilities problem for equipment Poor linkages from R&D to commercializationLack of coherent and clear policy incentivesRestructuring of power industry local versus national differencesOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beij

16、ing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 10 of 22Introductory StageGrowth StageDecline StageMaturity StageTotal Market SalesSustainable Energy Stages of development of in China1 Nuclear2 Natural gas3 IGCC456H2 PVWind789Geothermal Solar thermalSmall hydroChinaInternationalOctober 21 2

17、2, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 11 of 22IntroductionGrowth1562356Maturity78982791DeclineTotal sales434R&DTimeRE policy supportChinas RE policy is developing toward international best practices.Goal is to have 10% RE electricity by 2020October 21 22, 2004 ; Beij

18、ing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 12 of 22China: Long history of central government support for RE (especially since 9th Five Year Plan). 2004 the government released first RE law draft for discussion. Wind, geothermal, small hydro and solar PV are expected to be important foc

19、al areas for Chinas policy development. Draft law says “Grid must buy approved electricity generated by RE.” Draft law also regulates that “RE electricity price will be decided by differentcategories”.International: Three basic types of policy tools: Mandatory market requirement (percentage of power

20、 generation required by renewables) RE tariffs Concession / project bidding Germany has generally been most successful due to strong public interest in clean energy development Many countries (US, Australia, UK, China) tending toward mandatory market requirements.Wind EnergyOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Bei

21、jing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 13 of 22China: 567MW of wind power capacity installed at end of 2003. Total potential for on-shore wind energy resource in China is greater than 253,000MW Concession Projects have been won for 600WM of wind power during 2003 and 2004 Upcoming

22、 policy support may set off an investment rush similar to what Germany, Spain and some other countries have experienced (new RE law)International: Wind power is the fastest growing grid connected electricity generating resource ( 25%/yr for last 10 years internationally). At the end of 2003, there w

23、as 40 GW total global installed capacity. Wind is expected to be an important contributor to the North American and European electricity supply (Germany produces about 5% of annual electricity with wind, Denmark about 20%).Cumulative (MW)35,000Germany (1990 - 2010)30,000US (1990 - 2010)NDRC Targets2

24、5,000Curve fit to NDRC20,00015,000US and German values have beenshifted forward by 10 years.10,0005,000020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020Year (China data & US/German data shifted forw ard 10 years)Chinas grid connected wind developmentChinas goals compared to Germany and US development sh

25、ifted forward by 10 yearsCumulative (MW)35,000NDRC Targets30,000Curve fit to NDRC25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020Year (China data & US/German data shifted forw ard 10 years)October 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 14

26、 of 22Solar PVOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 15 of 22China: Most PV is currently installed in rural locations with no grid supplied power. Local manufacturing is straining to produce cells at internationally competitive prices, as much of the raw m

27、aterials are imported at relatively high cost. This should improve greatly during the next 5 10 years. Shell and BP are already important suppliers of PV products for high profile projects in China. Very small market in China today; about 5 - 6MW sales in 2003 with cell production capacity of 74MW.I

28、nternational: Solar PV has grown at a rate of about 30% for the last ten years. Total sales last year were about 500MW, but this is expected to double every 2.5 years. Shell and BP are leaders in solar PV, as they view this technology as an important and profitable technology during the 21st century

29、. Industry focus is now on driving costs down via mass production and improved technologies.Cumulative (MW)4,0003,500Based on Germany Based on US3,000NDRC Targets/Actual Fit to NDRC Targets2,5002,0001,500US and German values have been shifted forward by 12 years.1,00050002000200220042006200820102012

30、2014201620182020Year (China data & US/German data shifted forw ard 12 years)Chinas solar PV developmentOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 16 of 22Cumulative (MW)4,000Chinas goals compared to Germany and US development3,500NDRC Targets/Actualshifted for

31、ward by 12 years3,000Fit to NDRC Targets2,5002,0001,5001,000500020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020Year (China data & US/German data shifted forw ard 12 years)China business opportunity Wind & PVBusiness as usual scenario:Wind & PV revenues* 2004 2020:RMB 134 billion (wind - 96 billion)Reve

32、nues during 2010:RMB 6 billion (wind - 4.5 billion)Revenues during 2020:RMB 13 billion (wind - 10 billion)60,000 direct jobs created by 2020(minimum estimate based on EU industry structures)* Constant 2003 RMB value; $1.00 = RMB 8.27October 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn

33、中国最大的资料库下载Slide 17 of 22“Clean” CoalOctober 21 22, 2004 ; Beijing, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 18 of 22An example: IGCC Gasifier (fuel) gas turbine + steam turbine to spin generators + chemicals (syngas, hydrogen, etc.0Potential Advantages of IGCC Higher thermal efficiency 40

34、% - 55% vs. 40% or less for conventional coal Removes sulfur, Hg, and other contaminants before combustion, eliminating need for some pollution control equipment Accepts wider range of feedstocks and feedstock quality Easier to capture chemical by-products for sale (syngas, hydrogen, etc.) Less use

35、of cooling water (30%) than conventional coalHydrogenHydrogen is not an energy source . . . it is an energy carrier.Major companiesare supporting development of hydrogen technologies, as they see this as apotential replacement for oil & natural gas over the next 50+ years.October 21 22, 2004 ; Beiji

36、ng, PRCNew Ventures 2004来自 www. 2238.cn 中国最大的资料库下载Slide 19 of 22China: There is considerable interest in hydrogen technology, but most activity has been in developing research papers and laboratory tests. China requires involvement from leading international experts and companies to quickly develop

37、local capabilities. China has a huge opportunity to take a lead in hydrogen energy. Chinas demands for new energy supply make it the most efficient location in the world for introducing the new infrastructure required to support hydrogen and fuel cells (which are closely related due to their mutual

38、dependency).International: The IDEA of hydrogen energy has attracted significant attention internationally similar to companies in the early to mid- 1990s. Billions of dollars are being spent annually on hydrogen and fuel cell development by governments and companies. Hydrogen is expected to

39、 be used in fuel cells as well as in combustion engines and turbines. Hydrogen can be generated from fossil fuels or from renewable energy processes.Azures picks for investment “Hot Spots”WindProject development: key area for profitable IPP investment, but not in concession projectsTurbine/component

40、 production: large companies such as GE, Vestas, etc. will localize in China, and this will force faster development of high quality component suppliersPVChina could be the low cost manufacturing base for cells/modules within 5 yearsLocalization of sub-suppliers is a prerequisite, and business opportunityClean Coal (IGCC, etc.)Must be an important technology, as China will continue to be largely dependant on its coal