您的认知计算未来-第一部分认知计算的演讲your cognitive future full storyline presentation deck cross industry v2

1、Click this button to get The latest version of this deck Other client ready and support materials: Executive Report Large audience presentation Infographics Information sessions Key contacts across IBMYour cognitive futureHow next-gen computing changes the way we live and work12015 IBM CorporationPr

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7、use of this document, please contact .REMOVE THIS SLIDE BEFORE SHARING WITH CLIENTSYour cognitive futureHow next-gen computing changes the way we live and workContentsExecutive summaryStudy approach and backgroundEvolution of cognitive: Where weve been and where were going L

8、essons learned: What your organization needs to knowWay ahead: How your organization can move forwardExecutive summaryExecutive summary What you need to know Cognitive computing has come a long way over the past 50 years Many organizations are already leveraging this innovative capability to realize

9、 significant business value and the potential for the future is exciting While realistic about the future of this technology, we believe there are multiple innovative opportunities for cognitive computing across industries Cognitive computing capabilities have and will continue to progress around th

10、ree capability areas directly related to the ways people think and work The use cases of cognitive computing will evolve over five key dimensions which will impact the robustness of future capability The rate of advancement across these evolutionary dimensions will be impacted by six forces which wi

11、ll influence the rate of adoption in both the public and private sectors There are three key lessons learned from those that have been pioneers in implementing cognitive computing solutions And four steps your organization can take now to begin preparing to take advantage of this innovative and exci

12、ting capabilityStudy approach and backgroundStudy background and overviewThe spark: Published by IBM Research, the IBM Global Technology Outlook (GTO) identifies and evaluates significant, disruptive technology trends that will lead to industry-changing products and services in the next three to ten

13、 years One of the key focus areas of the 2014 GTO was cognitive computing its future progression and potential impact This study is a deeper dive into the topic of cognitive computing and also identifies lessons learned and critical success factors based upon real-world cognitive computing implement

14、ationsKey questions addressed: What is the current state of cognitive computing and how is it expected to evolve? What lessons can be learned from pioneering organizations that have implemented cognitive computing solutions across various industries? What are the key strategy and planning considerat

15、ions and what steps can leaders take to make cognitive computing a reality in their organization?82015 IBM CorporationStudy approach and methodologyResearch method: We conducted dozens of interviews with global subject matter experts (SMEs) in various areas related to cognitive computing This subjec

16、t matter expert base enabled us to tap into approximately two centuries of collective experience in the emerging field of cognitive computing Interviews focused on the gaining insights on the future of cognitive computing and the forces likely to impact the direction of this technology and harvestin

17、g lessons learned from real world systems being implemented by pioneering organizationsSubject matter expertise leveraged: Members of industry with experience in implementing real-word cognitive computing solutions across multiple domains (e.g., program executives and technical leaders of cognitive

18、computing system implementations) Members of industry and academia focused on cognitive computing research and development across multiple research areas (e.g., professors of computer science at leading universities, members of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence AAAI)9 20

19、15 IBM CorporationWeve come a long wayImaginationInnovation and this is only the beginning!10 2015 IBM CorporationSo what is cognitive computing?kg-n-tiv (adjective): of, relating to, or involving conscious mental activities (such as thinking, understanding, learning, and remembering) Cognitive comp

20、uting and cognitive based systems accelerate, enhance and scale human expertise by: Learning and building knowledge, Understanding natural language and Interacting more naturally with humans than traditional programmable systems Over time, cognitive systems will simulate more of how the brain actual

21、ly works and help us solve the worlds most complex problems by penetrating the complexity of Big Data112015 IBM CorporationEvolution of cognitive132015 IBM CorporationPioneers and significant events have shaped where we are today1956: “Birth” of AI John McCarthy coins term artificial intelligence (A

22、I) atDartmouth Conference1974- 1980: 1st AI “Winter”1990s: AI on wwwAI-based extraction programs prevalent on www2005: Autonomous Car Stanford-built autonomous car wins DARPA Grand Challenge2014: Key Market Moves IBM formation of Watson Group and Google acquisition of Nest Labs1950s1960s1970s1980s19

23、90s2000s20101950: Turing TestTuring introduces way to test for intelligent behavior1965: First Expert System Stanford team led by Ed Feigenbaum creates DENDRAL1987- 1993: 2nd AI “Winter”1997: Deep Blue IBM Deep Blue defeats World Chess Champion2011: WatsonIBMs Watson competes and wins on Jeopardy!Th

24、e three capability areas of cognitive systems resemble the human learning and thinking processesDiscovery Create new insights and new valueDecision Provide bias-free advice semi-autonomouslyEngagement Interact and assist through understanding and reasoning of both content and contextSource: IBM Glob

25、al Technology Outlook 2014.152015 IBM CorporationSignificant progress has already been made in the “Engagement” capability areaPastPresentFutureVertical Specific True Q&A Systemse.g. Watson EngagementAdvisore.g. NextITAlmeTrue Q&A SystemsFAQAssistantse.g. ELIZAPseudo Dialogue ProgramsCognitive compu

26、ting solution assists military members in transitioning to civilian lifeUSAA was founded in 1922 by a group of U.S. Army officers to self-insure each other when they were unable to secure auto insurance due to the perception that they were a high-risk group. USAA has since expanded to offer banking

27、and insurance services to 10.4 million past and present members of the Armed Forces and their immediate family members. USAA seeks to be the provider of choice for the military community. USAA was one of the pioneers of direct marketing.192015 IBM CorporationChallenges: Many veterans returning to ci

28、vilian life after serving in the military struggle to adjust to several aspects of civilian life, including adjusting financially. Due to their lack of knowledge and experience in handling their personal finances, many military veterans do not know which questions to ask and concepts to consider in

29、trying to adjust back to civilian life. USAA assists approximately 155,000 veterans annually in making this transition and requires innovative solutions to better service these customers.Solution: USAA implemented an innovative cognitive computing solution that has analyzed more than 3,000 specializ

30、ed military transition documents to learn the rules and regulations associated with this life event. The systems natural language processing allows it to understand real questions asked in diverse ways. That way, even if someone doesnt know how to ask a question in the optimal way, the solution can

31、still attempt to parse the meaning at the heart of what theyre asking. USAA formed a team that worked with to train the system for six months using 2,000 questions as a baseline.“USAA chose the topic of military separation for its first foray into the cognitive computing space because it provides a

32、singular focus with a finite audience. More importantly, it will enable USAA to provide relevant guidance during one of the most emotional and financially impactful decisions our military members will make during their career.”- Eric Engquist, Assistant Vice President of Military Transitions, USAA A

33、s a result, USAA is able to provide customers comprehensive answers to complex questions in a non-judgmental environmentalThe “Decision” capability area has started to show promising results and has vast future potentialPastPresentFutureDecision AdvisorDecision Makere.g. Watson Oncology Advisor, Reb

34、ellionResearch Star“In the future, I believe cognitive computing solutions will include recommending, analyzing, and taking courses of action in addition to only providing information.”Dr. Manuela Veloso, Professor of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon UniversityCognitive solution helps support decis

35、ion making for improved patient careWellPoint, Inc. is one of the largest health benefits companies in the United States. Through its networks nationwide, they deliver a number of leading health benefit solutions through a broad portfolio of integrated health care plans and related services, along w

36、ith a wide range of specialty products (e.g., life and disability insurance benefits, dental, vision, behavioral health benefit services, long-term care insurance).Challenges: Utilization management nurses spend 40% to 60% of their time aggregating information that is faxed or mailed to them. They t

37、hen have to decide whether the request is based on evidence-based medicine and accords with WellPoint medical policies before approving or denying it For complex decisions, patients can wait weeks for the clinical review to occur and a lack of evidence or the ability to process in a timely fashion c

38、an delay treatment or lead to errors Also, it is extremely challenging for medical professionals to keep up with the rapid advancements in medical knowledgeSolution: Implemented a cognitive computing system to streamline the review processes between a patients physician and their health plan. The so

39、lution absorbed more than 25,000 test case scenarios and 1,500 real-life cases and gained the ability to interpret the meaning and analyze queries in the context of complex medical data and human and natural language, including doctors notes, patient records, medical annotations and clinical feedbac

40、k“The health care industry must drive transformation through innovation, including harnessing the latest technology that will ultimately benefit the health care consumer.”- Lori Beer, Executive Vice President of Specialty Business and IT, WellPoint Nurses working with the solution found they could a

41、ccept the systems recommendations on pre-authorization 90% of the time. Additionally, the more data they provide to the system, the more accurate the analysis becomes. Even when they have to do additional research on a request, the solution provides the ability to aggregate the information and prese

42、nt it to the nurses in a readable, structured format which results in a significant time savings.Early examples of the “Discovery” capability have emerged and future value propositions are compellingPastPresentFutureNeuromorphicComputersMore Domain Specific Discovery Advisorse.g. Watson Discovery Ad

43、visorDomain Specific DiscoveryCognitive computing solution supports new discoveries and insights in medical researchBaylor College of Medicine is a health sciences university that creates and applies science and discoveries to further education, healthcare and community service locally and globally.

44、 The college has total research support of $363 million, with $280 million from federal sources and trains more than 3,000 medical, graduate, nurse anesthesia, and physician assistant students, as well as residents and post- doctoral fellows.Challenges: Professions, such as public safety, law, medic

45、ine, finance, biotechnology, or any field with a major research component, rely on practitioners continually absorbing and synthesizing new information from multiple sources. The time needed by research professionals to test hypotheses and formulate conclusions currently ranges from days to years. A

46、 typical researcher reads about 23 scientific papers per month, which translates to nearly 300 per year, making it humanly impossible to keep up with the ever-growing body of scientific material availableSolution: Baylor has leveraged a cognitive computing system to accelerate research and unlock pa

47、tterns across all types of data so organizations can make discoveries with greater precision. The system is trained to “think” like a human research expert by unlocking insights, visualizing possibilities and validating theories at much greater speeds. The system has evaluated and analyzed nearly 70

48、,000 scientific articles on aprotein called p53 to predict proteins that turn on or off p53s activity“On average, a scientist might read between one and five research papers on a good day. But, to put this in perspective with p53, there are over 70,000 papers published on this protein. Even if a sci

49、entist reads five papers a day, it could take nearly 38 years to completely understand all of the research already available today on this protein.”- Dr. Olivier Lichtarge, Director of the Center of Computational and Integrative Biomedical Research, Baylor Medical Center As a result, cancer research

50、ers have a variety of new directions in which to target their research. These results are notable, considering that over the last 30 years, scientists averaged one similar target protein discovery per year.Cognitive computing will evolve over five dimensionsHow personalized and interactive is it?212

51、015 IBM CorporationHow can capability scale to meet demand?ScalabilityPersonalized InteractionEvolving DimensionsLearningWhat is the degree of autonomy in learning?UbiquitySensingHow ubiquitousis the capability?What are the various types of inputs it can sense and interpret?Cognitive systems will tr

52、ansform from passive systems to active agents, which are aware of the contextPassive SystemsActive AgentsPersonalized Interaction Currently cognitive systems are passive in nature Requires human beings to ask questions so that it canrespond Often the interaction is through typing text on a computer

53、terminal, mobile app or web portal Future cognitive systems will enable more natural interaction with users including voice and visualization Cognitive agents will interact with each other, and develop a collective intelligence Cognitive systems will go beyond the direct users, understand the locati

54、ve and temporal context, and deliver the response fit for that context“I have learned to trust the recommendations of Amazons editors because theyre recommending books to me that are based on everything they learn from my interactions with the system. They are getting better and better over time. Th

55、is is a great example of how computers are interacting with and learning from users. We can see the evolution of this capability over time.”Dr. William Dubyak, Cognitive Computing Solution Implementation Technical Leader, IBM WatsonFuture cognitive systems will adopt unsupervised learningLearning252015 IBM Corporation“Supervised machine learning around text defined features is what we have now. The future is all about feature engineering and unsupervised machine learning. We need a breakthrough to scale to all the domains