精益制造和供应链集成

1、Lean ManufacturingLAI Plenary Conference.and Supply Chain IntegrationPresented by:Jerry B. KhouryCalifornia Manufacturing Technology Center (CMTC)OverviewLos Angeles s Orange County s Inland Empire s San Diego s San Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San s Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Santa Barbara6 Hist

2、orical Perspective Industry Consolidation View from OEMs Current trends DoD & R&D Budgets remain flat Employment Future Technology Trends The power of the internet Resources Summary and Ultimate Goal Q&AC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCHistorical Perspective Industry Consolidations & MergersContinues at a Lessor

3、PaceC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCThe Boeing CompanyRaytheon CorpNorthrop GrummanLockheed MaritnArgo SystemsMagnavoxUTC Norden Sys.GD FT. WorthBoeingCAE LinkWestinghouse Elec.SandersRockwell AerospaceGD MissilesVoughtLockheedMcDonnell DouglasHughes AircraftGrummanMartin MariettaHughes HelicopterE-SystemsNorthr

4、opGould Ocean Sys.Hughes SatalitesRaytheon System(Litton as of 4/2/01)GE AerospaceCTSARCATexas Inst.GD Space Mid 80s to mid 90s 37became 4LoralGoodyear Aerospace Fairchild Weston Mid 90s to present noticeable increase in M&A activity within supply chainsHoneywell-ED Ford Aerospace LibrascopeLTV Miss

5、iles IBM Fed. Sys. Unisys DefenseAs the Consolidation Continues Primes & OEMs Have new Challenges Not all suppliers possess resources and capabilities to undertake major improvements (six sigma, lean manufacturing, continuous improvement) Not all suppliers have ability to attract & retain highC|M|T|

6、C800-300-CMTCcaliber people who understand process control (CpK & 6 Sigma) Demographics, the aging work force creates “Knowledge Management” challenges Effective Communication links between sub-tier suppliers and end users become increasingly important Early involvement in the design & development p

7、hases, and teaming “beyond” the shop floor become more crucialCurrent TrendsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Defense budget will grow at about 4%, withammunition and aircraft leading the increase R&D Budgets will remain flat forcing more Prime/Supplier collaboration Supplier consolidation will continue as a resu

8、lt of mergers As primes shift to “lean” practices, suppliers will be asked to manufacture more major sub- assemblies and less piece partsCurrent TrendsContinued OEMs will continue to out source manufacturingC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC JIT deliveries in support of POU demand will become more prevalent in ord

9、er to reduce inventory and carrying costs OEMs will shift to “assemble, test, and ship” model Suppliers and customers will team “beyond” the shop floor to design and develop next generation products using the Internet to create Virtual Product Design and InnovationDoD Procurement Growing at 4%Person

10、nelFY 199869821FY 199970933FY 2000 Est73723FY 2001 Est76276Ops. & Maint.9721598059103534103687Procurement$ 44,772.00$ 48,951.00$ 53,021.00$ 61,783.00R&D, Test & Eval.37089366353437534289Mgt. Funds2591951273590Totals251488255529264926276625Percent Chg.2%4%4% Procurement$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,000$30

11、,000$20,000$10,000$0($Mil)Los Angeles s Orange County s Inland Empire s San Diego s San Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San s Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Santa Barbara12Aerospace R&D Funding Remains FlatC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC40,00035,00030,000Millions Of 1999 $25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00019971995199319

12、9119891987198519831981197919770R&D, Non-fed Funding To AerospaceR&D, Fed Funding To AerospaceLess R&D will create more collaboration between primes and suppliersAerospace is Important to the US Accounts for Majority of ExportsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCContruction, Mining & Materials Handling MachineryChemi

13、cals & Allied ProductsAgricultural Products, Food & TobaccoAerospace$Billion05101520253035404550199719981999Employment In Southern California140Figure 7. Employment in Aerospace Industry L. A. County (1988-98)C|M|T|C800-300-CMTC122.1122.9123.3108.3103.195.695.489.082.474.877.167.872.567.965.361.462.

14、562.457.249.853.451.662.353.262.855.255.841.734.233.134.436.135.8Aircraft/PartsInstruments Search/Navigation120Employment (1,000)1008060402019881989199019911992199319941995199619971998Data Source: California Employment Development Department.Importance to the State of California8,924Aerospace is 2nd

15、 LargestC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Entertainment8,456EmployerSouthern California Payrolls By Industry5,0142,9171,595959581EntertainmentA&DNon-Defense High TechApparelAutomotiveFurniturePetroleumExcludes services & agriculture; estimates based on SIC code information & coverage compensation. Includes all in

16、dustry segments, both product-and service- oriented. Approximately 138,000 jobs in primary A&D SIC codes, plus an estimated 50,000 jobs for “mixed suppliers” that serve multiple industries in addition to A&D.1996 ($Million)Lean Migration Throughout the Supply Chain Economics are forcing OEMs (Primes

17、) toadopted “lean” as an enabling technology toC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCreduce manufacturing costs and eliminate waste Tier one suppliers are well on their way to implementing lean based in part on encouragement from their customers “Sub-Tier” suppliers still resist implementation of lean without a “Busin

18、ess Case” and payback analysis (ROI)13The Aerospace Supply Chain Needs to Accelerate the Shift to “World Class” StatusC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCPhase I Approved Supplier Capacity planning Scheduling systemsQuality systemsComputerizedinformation systemsInternal assessmentsPhase II Preferred Supplier Lean ma

19、nufacturingAdvanced quality systemsElectronic commerce Strategic planningPhase III Strategic PartnersIntegrated customer teamsTotal qualitySub-contractor teamsFunctional procurement specifications“Best practices” Lean ManufacturingVirtual Product DevelopmentE-Enabled transactionsWorld ClassLos Angel

20、es s Orange County s Inland Empire s San Diego s San Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San s Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Santa BarbaraThe New RealitiesC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Primes (OEMs) will continue to “out source” at an increased pace More emphasis will be placed on “sub-assembly” a higher (BOM) level

21、 Primes will focus on “engineering & design excellence” not on manufacturing Primes will use the Internet to improve design, cost, schedule, quality and planning synergiesLos Angeles s Orange County s Inland Empire s San Diego s San Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San s Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Sa

22、nta Barbara15Hosted by:A good starting pointC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Will impact up to 37,000 suppliers . Hundreds of Airlines Total combined procurement outlay of $71 billion14001200Projected Business-to-Business E-Commerce Transactions4-Year Est. Growth92%C|M|T|C800) 300-CMTC1330.81000Yankee GroupForre

23、ster Group (US only)IDC Corporation99%41%842.7974.8800600Current Est. $7 Tril. By 2004499470.3528.2541.4400200033.827.243.1138.564.6109.3213.9139.4251.1328.6270.7199819992000200120022003Organizations are increasingly turning to the internet to source indirect goods and services - those goods and ser

24、vices which are not a part of cost of goods sold. This typically includes such items as office supplies, travel, temporary services and desktop computers.Los Angeless Orange County s Inland Empire s Greater Sacramento sSan Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Santa BarbaraG

25、eneral Electric & E-CommerceLos Angeles s Orange County s Inland Empire s San Diego s San Fernando Valley/San Gabriel Valley San s Joaquin Valleys Ventura/Santa Barbara50 Jack Welch, CEOC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC“This company , like every company in the world today, is in the midst of the biggest, most tra

26、nsformational revolution in the pastcentury, brought on by the Internet.” “Where does the Internet rank in priority ?Itsnumber ONE, TWO, THREE and FOUR.”OEMs & Primes want “World Class” suppliersSome Technology Facts, IBM “Bandwith” will leapfrog Grew by a factor of 10 X over the past 15 years Will

27、grow by a factor of 150 X over the next 15 years In 1995,1 Tera Flop computer played chess comparable brain power of a lizard By 2010, 100 Tera Flop computer will work on Gene folding projectsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Before the end of the decade there will be 1 to 10 Peta Flop computers 12 to 15 PF appro

28、ximate human brainAdditional Technology TrendsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Wave Division Multiplexing (WDM) will become commonplace with Fiber Optic cable to the house and office Wireless interconnection will be global, now available in L.A. Internet will be integrated into common appliances, at low or no co

29、st to the consumer Internet technology will be integrated into machines and other hardware products for 7/24 monitoring capabilities Virtual teams will be formed to design “virtual products” on- line 7/24 on a global basis.These “virtual teams” will be“unformed” until the next projectThe Internet Pr

30、esents Threats and OpportunitiesOPPORTUNITIESC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCThreats Creates International competition on a massive scale Allows for 7/24 global product design reducing reliance on domestic labor Challenges traditional thinking and traditional business models Competitive advantage, levels the pla

31、ying field A way to expand market reach Accelerates time to market and lowers costs Enhances customer relations Empowers employees and creates what Bill Gates calls “Knowledge Workers” Streamlines processes & reduces cost Allows for 7/24 global product design Allows for rapid “product morphing” to m

32、eet changing customer needs Allows for global trading partners Allows for “virtual teams” to be formed and unformed based on needTangible BenefitsReduction in Transaction CostsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Banking industry reduces transaction costs from $1.07 to $0.01 Travel agent bookings go from $10.00 to $

33、2.00 Example:Raytheon reduces processing cost from $100 to $3Industrial AgeE-Commerce Trade (procurements) transaction costs go from $150.00 to $6.00$1,000.00$100.00$10.00$1.00$0.10$0.01The next revolution will be B2G (Business to Government)Web Enabled Trading Site Federal, State and Local Governme

34、nts spend $1.6 Trillion on goods and services Texas web site has reduced transaction costs by 83% from $120 to $20 California is currently evaluating and testing E-Commerce solutionsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCIntegrating the Supply Chain Suppliers will need to be able to respond toC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCelectro

35、nic “pull signals” with first time quality to support virtual “Kanbans” Suppliers will need to be “E” enabled to reduce administrative costs while reducing cycle times for specification changes, quantity changes, and schedule changes Customers will continue to demand quality, price, delivery, and de

36、sign and integration supportWhy Is There a Concern With the Aerospace and Defense Supply Chain and Supply Chain Management ?Value Stream Cost DistributionSUPPLIERS - 35%C|M|T|C800-300-CMTCRAW MATL 43%3/4TH TIER3%2ND TIER10%1ST TIER22%ASSEMBLER 22%Recent USAF and MIT Estimates Indicate70-80% of Value

37、 is in supply chainOther Factors to Consider As OEMs use lean to reduce “direct labor” and “inventory” overhead costs become a larger percentage of total cost One prime indicated that “direct” manufacturing costs are 20% of total costs This will force “lean” beyond the shop floor.Leveraging the powe

38、r of the Internet can help reduce overhead costsC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCCMTC is Working on Lean Beyond the Shop FloorC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Course work and training materials are being developed through a cooperative grant, including a Knowledge Management module Working with IBM & Others to identify opport

39、unities to leverage technology One client has demonstrated significant savings and time in the procurement area and in the quality records areaLean = Eliminating the WastesTypically 95% of Total Lead Time isNon-Value Added!C|M|T|C800-300-CMTCOrder Processing, Transport, Storage, Waiting, Rework, Mac

40、hine Setup, Inspection, Machine Breakdowns,etc.RUN TIMETotal Lead TimeDefinition of Value AddedValue AddedC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCAny activity that increases the market form or function of the product or service.These are things the customer is willing to pay for.Non-Value AddedAny activity that does not

41、 add market form or function or is not necessary.(These activities should be eliminated, simplified, reduced or integrated.)Things the customer is not willing to pay for.8Wastes of LEANC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCLean Building Blocks What a lean factory looks likeC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCLean FactoryOne Piece Flow

42、CellularTakt TimePull/KanbanPOUSQuick ChangeoverQuality SourceBatch ReductionTeamsStandardizedWorkplaceVisualPlant Layout WorkOrganizationKeys to SuccessPrepare and Motivate PeopleC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Widespread orientation to CI, quality, training and recruiting workers with appropriate skills Creat

43、e common understanding of need to change to leanEmployee Involvement Push decision making and system development down to the “lowest levels” Train and truly empower peopleShare information and manage expectationsIdentify & empower champions, particularly operations managers Remove roadblocks (i.e.,

44、people, layout, systems) Make it both directive yet empoweringKeys to SuccessAtmosphere of Experimentation Tolerate mistakes, have patience, etc. Willingness to take risks (Safety nets)C|M|T|C800-300-CMTCInstall “enlightened” and realistic performance measures, evaluation, and reward systems Do away

45、 with rigid performance goals during implementation Do measure results and not number activities/events Tie improvements, long term, to key macro level performance targets. (i.e. inventory turns, quality, delivery, overall cost reductions).Execute “pilot” projects prior to rolling out across entire

46、enterprise(e.g., model lines, kaizen blitzes) After early wins in operations, extend across ENTIRE organizationImplementation Success Factors ImplementationC|M|T|C800-300-CMTC People need to understand their new roles before change is implemented Establish timelines and targets, establish some easy

47、to achieve near term goals CI - Continuous Improvement Track impacts associated with changes made. Communicate them. Monitor, “enforce,”and improve the system Improvement Leaps Avoid mentality of collapsing over the finish line.Implementation Success Factors Unyielding Leadership Strategic vision ba

48、sed on lean enterprise as part of overall business strategy! Observe outside successes and failures Ability to question EVERYTHING, ask “why” at least 6 times Deep commitment to EXCELLENCEC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCC|M|T|C800-300-CMTCCase Studies Demonstrate Results“You dont understand, our business is diff

49、erent”Lean Supplier Case Studies Demonstrate Impact Client 1 - 65 Employees, Family owned business:C|M|T|C800-300-CMTC Annual savings of over $37.3 K as a result of streamlining paper flow, streamlining the Shipping/Receiving processes, and floor space reduction. Client 2 - 230 Employees, Corporatio

50、n: Realized immediate cost savings of $25.8 K due to a 72% reduction in WIP and inventory. Annual savings of $16.9 K due to floor-space reduction, labor reduction, and setup reduction. Client 3- 368 Employees, Corporation: Realized savings of over $30 K due to a 63% reduction in WIP and inventory. A

51、nnual savings of $19.3 K due to floor space reduction, labor reduction, and paper flowreduction. Client 4- 186 Employees Corporation: Goal of a 50% actual 70%. reduction in paper work documentation process Goal of 50% actual 47% reduction in data package build time Goal 25% actual 20% reduction in data storage space by Using 5S methodology Delivery lead time reduction over 7 days Annual savings of $4