电商和港股软件行业2018下半年投资策略电商趋势和云软件的兴起

1、证券分析师：黄倩 A0230517010002 BGT702 2018.6.21 电商趋势和云软件的兴起电商和港股软件行业2018下半年投资策略主要内容1. 电商行业2. 软件行业2n 电商的增速降低，线下市场80%的份额有待开拓社会零售品的品类占比 2017年635%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%线上渗透率的提升是加速17年电商增速的主要原因703929%27%2623%20%16%10%13%68605040302010-2012201320142015201620172018E2019E2020E实物线上渗透率总体线上渗透率电商增速 YoY

2、(%)建筑及装潢材 料 2%汽车26%石油及制品12%通讯器材3%餐饮收入11%家用电器和音像器材6%粮油、食品类10%饮料类1%烟酒类3%服装鞋帽、针纺织品化妆品9% 2%资料来源：国家，申万宏源研究家具文化办公用品2%2%中西药品6%日用品3%金银珠宝2%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%餐饮0%各个品类线上渗透率资料来源：国家，申万宏源研究35%38%40%30%8%3%2%平均：15% 8%需2%执照2%n 1) 高渗透率或者标品品类未来将带来超过50%的渗透率。医药n 2)加速对大品类低渗透率的品类的布局和渗透：FMCG 17%/餐饮 11%1.1.1 趋势一：向线

3、下渗透的必要（新零售、O2O）家电服装食品饮料汽车零部件新车销售、汽车维保美容护肤婴幼儿成品油资料来源：阿里，产业信息网，申万宏源研究3）直接做线下833374.CH1.1.2新零售版图作36.16%大润发 欧尚 控股74%10%线下渠道较早战略合步步高 662251.SZ18%阿里巴巴战略合作24.7%百联集团东方股份 第二股东居然之家 15%壹玖壹玖191920%线上渠道32%三江 601116.SH控股 资料来源: 阿里，京东 4轮投资，易腾果讯 ，公告汇总，申万宏生源鲜研究盒马鲜生 苏宁 联华超市 新华都 002264.SZ银泰商业 1833.HK高鑫零售 线下渠道万达商业4.12%战

4、略合作2.06%家乐福中百集团30%永辉超市 601933.SH5%新战略合作沃尔玛 步步高10%10.1%10%京东腾讯18.1%线上渠道5.5%7%生鲜3轮投资 品牌海澜之家 600398.SH5.3%每日优鲜 美团 唯品会 n 线下渠道附能线上营销更多流量，更多数据维度，更多信息采集和定位。1.1.3O2O布局n 不仅仅是2C端的线下渗透，2B端的线下渗透阿里有零售通，京东有新通路， 现在覆盖进展都很快，关键看冷链物流能不能赶上发展速度1.1.4 阿里走并表做样本n 阿里并表新零售-包含盒马鲜生，银泰和天猫进口（天猫全球购一部分）n 盒马：2016年1月开始在上海开第一家店，2017年下

5、半年开始有门店盈利，到2018年5月截止已有47家门店。盒马的盈利模式是前期投入很大， 后期靠周围订单量上升，固定成本下降实现盈利。盒马的盈利模式在单店上已经得到证明，整体盈利只是时间问题。在FY18的157亿中，应该有80-90亿的贡献，占比55%左右n 银泰：大型百货，2017年6月才开始并入，2016年营收60亿人民币，基本每年不到5% 的增长，利润率2-2.5%之间，拿进阿里后阿里表示不需要银泰再盈利，所以应该是亏损的。估计未来年贡献也就60亿出头的样子，短期不会有收入的大幅度提升，FY18占比40%左右，未来占比会进一步下降FY19E估计只能给新零售贡献14%。n 盒马已成规模， 且

6、盈利模式得到证明， 会成位阿里未来一年增速最快内生板块。n 京东的7Fresh是并表的，2018年初才开始做，一季度有2家试运营店，在并表新零售业务上之前并没有战略部署， 1.1.5 京东走合作模式就合作的商家来说，阿里的线下占比不如京东特别是京东到家线下零售合作覆盖范围广，但阿里总收购量从商超到百货总体占比远大于京东，并表的新零售上更占优势，未并表的优势并不明显11n 阿里巴巴线上GMV市场份额是逐步下降的100%90%80%70%60%50%n 阿里GMV增速一直是比行业增速更慢一些, 京东GMV从2017年也开始低于行业增速（*国家 的GMV增速是自

7、然年，阿里是财年错后一个季度）55%38%28%22%30%25%24%20%60%50%40%30%20%83%76%69%64%61%59%57%40%30%10% 0%20142015201620172018E2019E2020E阿里巴巴GMV市场份额20%10%186%资料来源: 阿里巴巴年报，NBS，申万宏源研究n 阿里京东外的缺口值一直在加大0% FY17 (2016)FY18 (2017)FY19E (18E)FY20E (19E)FY21E (20E)阿里公布GMV增速（天猫+淘宝）京东公布的GMV增速 国家 GMV增速*资料来源: 阿里巴巴年报，京东，NBS，申万宏源研究n

8、电商市场集中度持续下降，市场越来越分散化n 电商市场的丰富度持续提升，主要来自于社交电商和垂直电商1.2.1 趋势二：市场分散化n 补上阿里京东外 GMV 缺口可能性（一）：微商报入数据n 可能性（二）：其他增速接近翻倍的小电商不少社交资料来源：搜狐, /a/219080046_100026834垂直整个加起来依然有3271亿的缺口，但这个缺口相对合理，还有很多没有纳入的垂直品类的电1.2.2 市场分散化-社交电商/垂直电商兴起商，比如这两年发展很好的母婴类和化妆品类整个电商的生态是越来越丰富和多样化的，集中度也从三四年前的90%+ 下降到80%+，未来几年

9、，市场还会更加分散，垂直品类，社交品类或者其他创新品类还会有更多空间和市场社交餐 饮O2O1.3.1 阿里 vs. 京东 商业模式资料来源：申万宏源研究n 单位用户价值阿里是京东近3倍+生态系统建设自营模式+佣金模式:京东佣金占比大， 流量靠合作，线下渗透靠合作，交易为主，货币化率空间有限平台模式+广告模式：阿里广告占比大，流量内生，线下当下主要靠内生，生态为主，主要拉升靠货币化率，交易位次n 货币化率空间不同资料来源：申万宏源研究1.3.2 阿里 vs. 京东 估值和评级主要内容1. 电商行业2. 软件行业12n 阿里云认为华为云是其最大威胁，不是腾讯云，腾讯基金对技术不够重视，难以超越阿里

10、。华为的地推能力是一流的，华为的服务器早已通过通讯业务铺设好，数据中心服务器资源非常丰富，虽然2017年4月才起步，没有统计数据，但是非常有力的竞争者。3113n 国际上AWS最便宜，阿里也降价打国际市场，但性能不如AWS， Azure, 和google cloud, 欧美没什么份额，阿n 1H17，IDC数据国内阿里云市场份额48%，腾讯云10%，金山云6.5%。阿里云绝对第一， 也是价格最低。AWS虽里云在东南亚还有一席之地， 和新加坡都是市场份额第一然性能好，但在中国受监管和国外服务器不连通， 且产品有局限性。阿里国内地

11、位增速没有实质性的威胁存在。资 料 来 源 ：IDC /ne ws/article.php?pk=59f94f22.1.1 云计算的爆发期-阿里IaaS龙头2.1.2 云计算市场的体现一：云大会的参会人数暴增体现二：获客成本的降低n 虽然云计算的概念存在很久了，但之前许多公司担心将 IT 系统迁移到云计算稳定性和安全性的问题，一直举步不前。当客户意识云的安全性，云节约成本的优势，以及云增值服务利用大数据提高效率的可行性时，市场态势已由被动变为主动。来自不同行业的公司开始主动寻求合适的云解决方案，约90的初创公司直接在云上建立他们的公司。随着新客户的获取

12、成本下降， 来自 IaaS 和 SaaS 的用户可能在未来五年进入高速增长期，变现步伐也会加快资料来源：IDC,Gartner,麦肯锡分析17n IaaS 龙头：阿里云-BABA USn IaaS 当前第三：金山云- 3888 HKn SaaS龙头：金蝶- 268 HKn SaaS 相关标的：中软国际-354 HK垂直云IaaS行业IaaS新秀： 华为云生态2.1.3 云计算收益标的和推荐2.2 工业互联网搭载云计算热点n 工信部6月发的工业互联网发展行动计划2018-2020年： 2020年建成5个左右标识解析国家顶级节点，标识注册量超过20亿 推动20

13、万家以上的工业企业上云 培育超过30万个工业APP 2020年前实现重点行业超过100家企业完成企业内网络改造 2020年前遴选10家左右跨行业跨领域工业互联网平台 2020年前重点领域行程150个左右工业互联网集成创新应用试点示范项目金蝶 （268 HK）： 以ERP为基础的工业互联网平台中软 （354 HK）： 以线下大量工业外包项目经验为基础的工业互联网平台擎天软件 （1297 HK）：以国家碳排放为标准的设备上网的绿色工业互联网平台阿里云（BABA US）：工业ET大脑n 涉及标的有：以地方政府推进的形式更多，而不是企业自主上云，收入多以政府补贴为主，推进都是按城市来，有些技术领先，有

14、些成本低政府关系好，所以很难讲最后格局谁会胜出，短期都会有一定收入贡献，但规模都不大，多是估值提升2.3短期交易性机会推荐n 金山软件（3888 HK）n 公司上半年盈利低谷，是好的切入机会，全年所有正向催化剂都集中在下半年，是短期交易标的。n 如果一切催化剂如期，我们预估上升空间在25%左右，如果WPS上市或者剑网3有一者如期，一者延期，空间可能只有10%+。我们当下评级为增持。n 市场对于剑网3会延期的担忧很多，但到现在为止还没有具体消息一定会有延期的情况，担忧多基于行业因素和公司历史的tracking record不够好。Information Disclosure：The views

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