2018世界投资报告投资与新产业政策英文版

1、UNITED NA TIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTWORLD INVESTMENTREPORT2018INVESTMENT AND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIESUNITED NA TIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTWORLD INVESTMENTREPORT2018 INVESTMENT AND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIESNew York and Geneva, 2018NOTEThe UNCTAD Investment and Enterprise Div

2、ision is the focal point in the United Nations System for investment and enterprise development. As a global centre of excellence, the Division conducts leading-edge research and policy analysis, provides technical assistance to 160 member States and regional groupings, and builds international cons

3、ensus among the 196 member States of the organization. Its mission is to promote investment and enterprise for sustainable and inclusive development.The Division provides, among others,iiiPrefaceTwo flagship products:World Investment ReportWorld Investment ForumSix key policy frameworks:Investment P

4、olicy Framework for Sustainable DevelopmentAction Plan for Investing in the SDGs Entrepreneurship Policy FrameworkReform Package forthe International Investment RegimeGlobal Action Menu for Investment Facilitation Accounting Development ToolSeven core services:Investment databases and research Natio

5、nal and internationalinvestment policiesInvestment promotion Responsible investment Business facilitation Entrepreneurship development Accounting and reportingInformation about these products, frameworks and services, as well as the publications of the Division, can be found free of charge at UNCTAD

6、s website (/diae) or the organizations investment policy hub (www. ).The copyright of the material in this publication rests with UNCTAD. It may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to UNCTAD and this R

7、eport. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Secretariat (e-mail: ).UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.18.II.D.4ISBN 978-92-1-112926-7eISBN 978-92-1-045178-9ISSN 1020-2218Copyright United Nations, 2018 All rightsreservedPrint

8、ed at United Nations, GenevaPREFACEGlobal flows of foreign direct investment fell by 23 per cent in 2017. Cross-border investment in developed and transition economies dropped sharply, while growth was near zero in developing economies. With only a very modest recovery predicted for 2018, this negat

9、ive trend is a long-term concern for policymakers worldwide, especially for developing countries, where international investment is indispensable for sustainable industrial development.This troubling global investment picture underscores the importance of a conducive global investment environment, c

10、haracterized by open, transparent and non-discriminatory investment policies. The theme chapter of the report shows that over 100 countries have adopted industrial development strategies in recent years. New types of industrial policies have emerged, responding to the opportunities and challenges as

11、sociated with a new industrial revolution. The report presents options for investment policy tools in this new environment.I commend this years World Investment Report as a timely contribution to an important debate in the international investment and development community.Antnio GuterresSecretary-G

12、eneral of the United NationsFOREWORDWe are at the dawn of a fourth industrial revolution, propelled by frontier technologies and robotization advances that make production better, cheaper and faster than ever before. This new industrial revolution offers enormous opportunities for economic growth an

13、d sustainable development with potential benefits on a scale that is difficult to imagine. New technologies promise possibilities of industrial upgrading and leapfrogging. Cheaper transportation and communication, coupled with more efficient logistics, can also help developing countries better link

14、to global value chains. Some of the most advanced emerging economies are already on the verge of becoming global technological leaders in a number of industries.Yet, the new economic age and the accelerating pace of technological innovation could also result in serious economic disruption and more i

15、nequality. Existing investment patterns, for instance, might go through profound and far-reaching changes, in terms of both flows and content. Last years World Investment Report highlighted the emerging structural impact of the digital economy on foreign direct investment.Inthis context, developing

16、countries, and least developed countries in particular, face considerable challenges. They range from structural constraints, such as the lack of adequate infrastructure and scarce access to finance, to strategic issues. Offshoring and relocation towards destinations offering cheaper domestic labour

17、 become less relevant in a world of increasingly automated manufacturing. At the same time, improving living conditions requires creating jobs, which in turn still relies heavily on manufacturing. Developing countries with small markets face additional pressure on their investment policies as compan

18、ies increasingly look for investment locations offering the best conditions to deliver new and high-quality products rapidly, close to the customer and through flexible production processes.Challenges are particularly pronounced in Africa. Despite a period of strong economic growth, the level of eco

19、nomic transformation has been low. The share of manufacturing in the GDP of African countries is small, and it has further declined or stagnated over the past decade. However, manufacturing has the potential of creating a large number of jobs in the formal sector and therefore raising living conditi

20、ons.Confronted with an altering global economic landscape and deep structural reconfiguration, governments around the globe have invigorated their industrial policies in recent years. There is a growing consensus that structural transformation does not occur by itself, but rather requires a proactiv

21、e policy that facilitates a transition towards new sectors and activities with higher productivity and more value added, while fostering sustainable and inclusive development.As they pursue multifaceted objectives, new industrial policies have become more complex and intertwined, wielding multiple i

22、nstruments, from trade to education. Central to these industrial policies is foreign investment. Investment builds and upgrades industries. It connects to international markets. It also drives essential innovation and competitiveness. All in all, the current debate is less about whether governments

23、should intervene, but rather how.Industrial policies and accompanying investment policies need to revolve around a clearly articulated vision but, at the same time, they have to contain practical and detailed recommendations, a clear timeline for action and a division of responsibilities among the p

24、ublic and private sectors.Against this background, the World Investment Report 2018 aims to provide a better understanding of the interaction between new industrial policies and investment policies. It provides an overview of industrial policy models based on an inventory of industrial policies adop

25、ted by more than 100 countries over the last decade and the role of investment policies within each model. The Report illustrates how investment policy instruments are used differently across various models and suggests ways to improve the impact of industrial policy through more effective and effic

26、ient investment policies. Finally, the Report offers recommendations to update existing investment policy instruments, including investment incentives, special economic zones, investment facilitation and foreign investment screening mechanisms.Building from this Report, UNCTAD will host a discussion

27、 of the interface between industrial and investment policies at its 6th World Investment Forum, which will take place in Geneva on 2226 October 2018.Together, let us work towards finding solutions to ensure that economic change does not create new hardships, but benefits that are widely shared and l

28、ead to a better life for all.Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTADviWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe World Investment Report 2018 was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Hamed El

29、 Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Klmn Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Isya Kresnadi, Guoyong Liang, Anthony Miller, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, William Speller, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee.Research support and inputs were provided by Jor

30、un Baumgartner, Juan Carlos Castillo, Tiffany Grabski, Josse Jakobsen, Kim Kampel, Melinda Kuritzky, Sergey Ripinsky, Stella Sakellaridou, Stefanie Schacherer, Sylvie Somerville, Ilan Strauss, Paul Wessendorp and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by Marta Kolasinska, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Oktawi

31、an Kuc, Mathabo Le Roux, Eduardo Lins, Abraham Negash and Michelle Ngo.Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne Martinez.The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copy-edited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Cortizo designed the charts,

32、 maps and infographics; he and Laurence Duchemin typeset the report. Production of the Report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Jovan Licina, Sivanla Sikounnavong and Katia Vieu.The report benefited from extensive advice from Harsha Singh on chapterIV.

33、 At various stages of preparation, in particular during the expert meetings organized to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts: Willy Alfaro, Azar Aliyev, Antonio Andreoni, Nathalie Bernasconi, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, Jonathan Bonnitcha, Damien Charlotin, Manjiao Chi,

34、Xiaolan Fu, Angel Gonzalez-Sanz, Nicolas Jansen Calamita, John Kline, Markus Krajewski, Sarianna Lundan, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Ted Moran, Rajneesh Narula, Anthea Roberts, Mavluda Sattorova, Esme Shirlow, Jagjit Singh Srai, Heinz Tselmann, Gus Van Harten, Markus Wagner and Philip Wooldridge.Als

35、o acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General. The United Nations Cartographic Section provided advice for the regional maps.Numerous officials of central banks, government ag

36、encies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to the report.TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACEiiiFOREWORDivACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviABBREVIATIONSxKEY MESSAGESxiCHAPTERI. GLOBAL INVESTMENTTRENDSAND PROSPECTS1A. CURRENT FDI TRENDS21. Global trends22. Trends by geography33. Tre

37、nds by sector and mode of entry74. FDI and other cross-bordercapital flows95. FDI as a component of financing for development10B. FDI PROSPECTS141. Overall prospects assessment142. Key factors influencing future FDI flows15C. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION201. Key indicators of international production202

38、. Trends in global value chains223. Internationalization trends of the largest MNEs26CHAPTER II. REGIONAL TRENDS37A. DEVELOPING ECONOMIES381. Africa382. Developing Asia443. Latin America and the Caribbean50B. TRANSITION ECONOMIES56C. DEVELOPED ECONOMIES61D. STRUCTURALLY WEAK, VULNERABLE AND SMALL EC

39、ONOMIES661. Least developed countries662. Landlocked developing countries703. Small island developing States74CHAPTER III. RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AND KEY ISSUES79A. NATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES801. Overall trends802. Merger controls affecting foreign investors85B. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICI

40、ES881. Recent developments in the international investment regime882. Taking stock of IIA reform95C. PHASE 3 OF IIA REFORM1041. Improving investment policy coherence and synergies1042. Maximizing synergies between the IIA regime and thenational legal framework for investment1053. Managing the intera

41、ction between IIAs and other bodiesof international law affecting investment1114. Dynamics of policymaking: flexibility and policy space114D. CAPITAL MARKETS AND SUSTAINABILITY1161. Stock exchanges ESG activities1162. Green finance and ESG indices1183. Gender equality120CHAPTERIV.INVESTMENTAND NEW I

42、NDUSTRIAL POLICIES125INTRODUCTION126A. INDUSTRIAL POLICY: A MODERN PHENOMENON1281. The recent proliferation of industrial policies1282. New themes in industrial policies1293. The central role of investment policies in industrial policies131Table of ContentsixB. INDUSTRIAL POLICY MODELS1341. The comp

43、lexity of modern industrial policy packages1342. Recent industrial policy designs1393. Basic models and stages of development144C. INVESTMENT POLICY PACKAGES1461. Industrial policy as the key driver of investment policy practice1462. Investment policy as an instrument for industrial development the

44、evidence1483. The role of IIAs163D. INVESTMENTAND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIES:THE WAYFORWARD1651. Design criteria for modern industrial-investment policies1652. Updating investment policy instruments for industrial policies1683. Investment policy toolkits for industrial policy models172E. CONCLUDING REM

45、ARKS177REFERENCES179ANNEX TABLES183Annex table 1. FDI flows, by region and economy, 20122017184Annextable2.FDIstock,byregionandeconomy,2000,2010and2017188ABBREVIATIONSACPAfrican, Caribbean and Pacific AfCFTAAfrican Continental Free Trade Area ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations BITbilateral

46、investment treatyBRICSBrazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa CCIACOMESA Common Investment AgreementCEPAComprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement CETAComprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement CISCommonwealth of Independent StatesCLMVCambodia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, M

47、yanmar, Viet Nam COMESACommon Market of Eastern and Southern AfricaCPTPPComprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership CSRcorporate social responsibilityDACDevelopment Assistance CommitteeDVAdomestic value addedEACEast African CommunityECJEuropean Court of JusticeEPAEconomic P

48、artnership AgreementESGenvironmental, social and governanceFAforeign affiliateFETfair and equitable treatmentFTAfree trade agreementFVAforeign value addedGATSGeneral Agreement onTrade in Services GVCglobal value chainICJInternational Court of JusticeICTinformation and communication technologyICSIDIn

49、ternational Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes IIAinternational investment agreementILOInternational Labor OfficeIPAinvestment promotion agencyIPFSDInvestment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development ISDSinvestorState dispute settlementLDCleast developed countryLLDClandlocked developin

50、g countryM&Amerger and acquisitionMFNmost-favoured nationMNEmultinational enterpriseMSMEmicro, small and medium-sized enterprises MWmegawattNAFTANorth American FreeTrade Agreement NIRnew industrial revolutionNTnational treatmentODAofficial development assistanceOECDOrganization for Economic Co-opera

51、tion andDevelopment OFCoffshore financial centreOIAoutward investment agencyOICOrganisation of Islamic CooperationOToperational technologyPACERPacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations PPPpublic-private partnershipR&Dresearch and developmentRCEPRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RTAreg

52、ional trade agreementSADCSouthern African Development Community SDGsSustainable Development GoalsSIDSsmall island developing StatesSMEsmall and medium-sized enterprisesSSESustainable Stock Exchanges (initiative)TIFATrade and Investment Framework Agreement TIPtreaty with investment provisionUNCITRALU

53、nited Nations Commission on International Trade Law WEOWorld Economic OutlookWTOWorld Trade OrganizationKEY MESSAGESINVESTMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTSWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesxiGlobal foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23 per cent to $1.43 trillion.

54、This is in stark contrast to the accelerated growth in GDP and trade. The fall was caused in part by a 22 per cent decrease in the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). But even discounting the large one-off deals and corporate restructurings that inflated FDI numbers in 2016, the 2

55、017 decline remained significant. The value of announced greenfield investment an indicator of future trends also decreased by 14 per cent.FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion, seeing no recovery following the 10 per cent drop in 2016. FDI flows to Africa continued to sl

56、ide, reaching $42 billion, down 21 per cent from 2016. The decline was concentrated in the larger commodity exporters. Flows to developing Asia remained stable, at $476 billion. The region regained its position as the largest FDI recipient in the world. FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose 8

57、per cent to reach $151 billion, lifted by that regions economic recovery. This was the first rise in six years, but inflows remain well below the 2011 peak during the commodities boom. FDI in structurally weak and vulnerable economies remained fragile. Flows to the least developed countries fell by 17 per cent, to $26 billion