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1、Transportation Research Part D 15 (2010) 1425The inclusion of aviation into the EU emission trading scheme Impacts on competition between European and non-European network airlinesJanina Scheelhaase a,*, Wolfgang Grimme a, Martin Schaefer ba German Aerospace Center (DLR), Air Transport and Airport R

2、esearch, Linder Hhe, Cologne, Germanyb German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Propulsion Technology, Linder Hhe, Cologne, Germanya r t i c l ei n f oa b s t r a c tKeywords:Aircraft emissions Airline competition Air transport policy Climate change Emissions tradingIn 2008, the European Commissi

3、on, the European Parliament and the European Council agreed on including international aviation in the already existing European Union carbon market. From 2012, allowances will be required for all international ights landing at and departing from any airport in the EU. Domestic aviation will be subj

4、ect to the same rules as international air trafc. Model-based empirical estimations presented in this paper indicate a diverse set of effects inuencing competition between European and non-Euro- pean aircraft operators. Initially, this paper provides an overview on recent political devel- opments on

5、 EU as well as on International Civil Aviation Organisation level on the subject of emissions trading and aviation. Subsequently, our modelling approach and the main results concerning impacts on operating costs, ticket prices and cargo rates for European and non-European aircraft operators are pres

6、ented and discussed. Finally, conclusions about the impacts on competition between European and non-European airlines are drawn.2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.1. BackgroundAccording to recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) estimations, international aviation contrib-

7、 utes about 3% to anthropogenic global warming. Climate relevant emissions from aviation include carbon dioxide (CO 2), water vapour (H2O), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphate particles (SOx) and soot, whereas CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas (Sausen et al., 2005). Furthermore, particulate emiss

8、ions from aircraft engines may trigger the formation of contrails and cirrus clouds, which are believed to contribute to global warming. Even though a lot of research has been carried out in the last years, the level of scientic understanding is still poor for some effects. This is especially true f

9、or contrails and ci rrus clouds and their contribution to global warming.To cap CO2 emissions of the aviation sector, the European Union (EU) will include this sector in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which is currently limited to stationary sources of CO2. The European Commissions

10、(EC) proposal for a directive as agreed by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union (2008) was published in 2008. It will come into force in 2009. According to this directive, aircraft operators will be obliged to surrender allowances for vir- tually all commercial ights landing

11、 at and departing from any airport in the EU from 2012 onwards. This way, the EU-ETS will not only affect European airlines, but also airlines from third-countries like the US or developing countries.In December 2006, the Commission of the European Communities (2006) published a rst version of this

12、proposal. As areaction to this proposal, a number of non-EU countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Brazil were* Corresponding author.E-mail address: Janina.Scheelhaasedlr.de (J. Scheelhaase).1361-9209/$ - see front matter 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.10

13、16/j.trd.2009.07.003Contents lists available at ScienceDirectTransportation Research Part Djournal homepage: www. /locate/trdJ. Scheelhaase et al. / Transportation Research Part D 15 (2010) 142515arguing strongly against the inclusion of non-EU carriers in the EU-ETS. It has being argued

14、 that the proposal conicts with international law, especially the Chicago Convention on Civil Aviation, but economic and competitive reasons are probably relevant, too. This legal argument was brought forward on ICAO as well as on a bilateral level. The EC has a diverting view on this issue. The Com

15、mission believes that the proposal conforms to international law and that the inclusion of non-EU carriers in the EU-ETS is preventing competitive distortions in the international air transport market. The ECs position is supported by a number of legal experts, who have concluded that the EUs unilat

16、eral inclusion of all aircraft operators into the ETS ir re- spective of their origin and without the consent of the respective governments is legally feasible (Petersen, 2008).Also a number of economic studies on these highly controversial issues have been conducted lately, e.g. Faber et al. (2007)

17、, Forsyth et al. (2007), Boon et al. (2007) as well as Scheelhaase and Grimme (2007). These studies focus on different aspects of the topic such as the method of initial allocation of allowances, the impacts on tourism as well as the economic impacts on different airline types. The following analysi

18、s is based on these recent ndings.This article analyses how the EU directive on the inclusion of international aviation in the EU-ETS affects competition be- tween European and non-EU airlines and if competitive distortions are likely to appear. Initially, we will provide an overview on recent polit

19、ical developments on EU as well as on ICAO level on the subject of emissions trading and aviation. This is fol - lowed by a brief description of our modelling approach. The economic and competitive impacts on operating costs, ticket prices and cargo rates for European and non-European aircraft opera

20、tors are estimated considering a US and a German full service airline as examples. For this purpose, different benchmark variants of the EU-ETS and their impacts on airline costs and passenger demand are analysed. On this basis, conclusions about the impacts on competition between European and non-E

21、uropean full service airlines are drawn.2. Recent developments on EU- and on ICAO-levelThe ECs proposal for a directive was agreed by the European Council and the European Parliament in 2008 (Council of the European Union, 2008). As mentioned above, it will become effective in 2009. It contains the

22、following provisions for the inclusion of aviation into the existing EU-ETS in 2012:The EU-ETS will cover virtually all ights departing from or arriving at EU airports from 2012 onwards. Domestic ights will be subject to the same rules as international air trafc. Taking into account that a number of

23、 non-EU countries did not ratify the Kyoto protocol (or any other international treaty on climate protection), this is indeed remarkable. The EC jus- tied this approach by stating that a distortion of competition in the international airline industry needs to be avoided to the most possible extent a

24、nd that this approach will improve the environmental effectiveness of the scheme. If any non- EU country introduced alternative measures with similar climate protecting effects, the geographical scope of the EU-ETS could be modied such that ights arriving from or departing for this particular countr

25、y are excluded from the scheme. Aircraft operators will be obliged to hold and surrender allowances for CO2 emissions.Allowances are required for ights by aircraft with a maximum take-off mass of or above 5700 kg. Flights performedunder visual ight rules and rescue ights (amongst a number of other e

26、xemptions) are excluded from the scheme. Exemptions from the EU-ETS will be also granted for ights performed in the framework of public service obligations on routes within outermost regions or on routes where the capacity offered does not exceed 30,000 seats per year. Also excluded from the EU-ETS

27、will be ights performed by a commercial air transport operator operating either fewer than 243 ights per 4-month period for three consecutive 4-month periods (so-called de minimis clause) or ights with total annual emissions lower than 10,000 tons per year. The de minimis clause was mainly added to

28、exclude aircraft operators from developing countries with a low number of ights to and from Europe.Regulations for emission monitoring and reporting will take effect in 2010 while an emission cap for all aircraft operators will be introduced in 2012.Further rules in the directive include the followi

29、ng issues:In the rst year of the inclusion of aviation into the EU-ETS, the total quantity of allowances to be allocated to aircraft operators shall be equivalent to 97% of the historical aviation emissions. The historical aviation emissions will be calcu - lated on the basis of the average total em

30、issions reported for the years 20042006 by the operators taking part in the scheme.Initially, allowances will be allocated to aircraft operators mostly free of charge. In 2012, 85% of the allowances shall be allocated for free. In contrast to the existing scheme for stationary installations, the met

31、hod of allocating allowances will be harmonized within the EU. The EC has obviously learnt its lesson from the sometimes generous supply of allowances for operators of stationary sources in the past.The total number of allowances allocated for free to each aircraft operator will be determined by a b

32、enchmark which is calculated in three consecutive steps: First, the share of auctioned allowances is subtracted from the overall cap. Second, the remaining amount of CO2 emissions is divided by the sum of veried tonne-kilometre data for ights falling under the geographical scope of the ETS in the mo

33、nitoring year 2010, as reported by all participating aircraft operators. Third, the specic amount of allowances each operator receives is calculated by multiplying the respective individual16J. Scheelhaase et al. / Transportation Research Part D 15 (2010) 1425tonne-kilometre value of the monitoring

34、year with the benchmark. Each operators revenue tonne-kilometres are calcu- lated by multiplying the mission distance (great-circle-distance plus an additional xed factor of 95 km) by the payload transported (cargo, mail and passengers). In the rst year of the inclusion of aviation into the EU-ETS,

35、allowances allocated to aircraft operators will be valid within the aviation sector only. However, it will be possible to purchase additional permits from other sectors or from the project based Kyoto instruments Joint Implementation” and Clean Development Mechanism”. In 2012, aircraft operators may

36、 use emission permits from Joint Implementation” and Clean Development Mechanism” up to 15% of the number of allowances they are required to surrender for this year. Allowances not used in 2012 can be banked to the third trading period of the EU-ETS. This means unused allowances issued in 2012 can b

37、e carried over for use up to 2020.It is understood that most of the regulations for 2012 will be further applied to aviation in the period 20132020, while presumably the overall cap will be reduced and the level of auctioning will be increased.On ICAO level, emissions trading for aviation is being i

38、ntensively discussed, too. By February 2007, the ICAO/CAEP Emis- sions Trading Task Force worked out ICAO Guidance for Emissions Trading in International Civil Aviation”. This guidance is for use by ICAO Contracting States, as appropriate, to incorporate emissions from international aviation into Co

39、ntracting States emissions trading schemes consistent with the UNFCCC (Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- mate Change) process. The guidance was adopted by the ICAO-CAEP/7 (Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection) in February 2007.Concerning the ECs proposal for the in

40、clusion of international aviation into the EU-ETS which was published in 2006 for the rst time, strongly diverting views of non-EU countries were expressed at the ICAO-CAEP/7 meeting as well as at the ICAO Assembly in September 2007. In contrast to the EC and the EU Member States, most ICAO contract

41、ing states believe that an inclusion of non-EU carriers is only possible on the basis of a mutual agreement. Both parties argue on the basis of the Chicago Convention on Civil Aviation. By the end of the Assembly it eventually proved not possible to reach an agree - ment on the controversial issues

42、and the Resolution text therefore reects the position of the majority of States. As a result, Europe could not agree to a Resolution text that urges States to refrain from unilateral implementation of greenhouse gas measures and entered a formal reservation on the relevant part of the ICAO Assembly

43、Resolution.3. Modelling the economic and competitive impacts of the EU-ETSOur model-based analysis focuses on the competitive impacts of the EU-ETS on EU- and US-based network carriers. Exemplarily, a comparison will be drawn between Lufthansa and Continental Airlines. Lufthansa was chosen as a repr

44、esen- tative Europeannetworkcarrierwhichisheavilydependent onfeederightsforitsintercontinentaloperations. Roughly 40% of all long-haul passengers carried by Lufthansa are directly originating atitshubs in Frankfurt and Munich, whileabout 60% are transfer passengers. This heavy dependence on feeder i

45、ghts inthe hub-and-spoke operations business model inuences the environmental performance of air transport as shown by Morrell and Lu (2006).Continental isanimportantcompetitor of European networkcarriers. Itsbusiness modelinrecentyearsfocussed strongly on decentralised intercontinental services. Be

46、tween July 2000 and July 2006, Continental has increased the number of weekly ights between the USA and Europe by more than 70%, with the number of seats increasing by more than 30%, according to ight schedules provided by OAG. The disparity between the growth in the number of ights and the number o

47、f seats lies in the fact that Continental has redeployed a considerable number of Boeing 757 aircraft from domestic to trans- atlantic markets, serving a large number of secondary airports in Europe. In comparison to other aircraft types used on trans- atlantic services, the 757 is relatively small

48、with only 175 seats.Our model-based analysis is divided into three main parts: In a rst step, the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions will be calculated. The fuel consumption and emissions calculations are prerequisites for the subsequent estimation of the bench- mark used for initial allocation and

49、the total emissions of the airlines ights subject to the EU-ETS. In the second step of the analysis, the initial allocation of allowances will be modelled. This includes the estimation of the underlying benchmark and the tonne-kilometres performed by each carrier in 2010. This year will become the m

50、onitoring year on which the initial allo- cation to individual airlines will be based. In the third step, the total CO2 emissions for both airlines in 2012 (when interna- tional aviation will be included in the ETS) will be roughly estimated, as well as the deltas between allowances allocated free o

51、f charge and the total amount of allowances needed by the airlines. In a nal step, the resulting impacts of the EU-ETS on ticket prices and freight rates are estimated.3.1. Mission fuel consumption and CO2 emissions3.1.1. OverviewTo calculate the airlines yearly fuel consumptions and CO2 emissions,

52、ight schedules delivered by the Ofcial Airline Guide (OAG) were used in combination with a Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)-developed mission analysis tool. This VarMission” software is run, in principle, for every ight contained in the schedules. It uses aircraft performa nce data con

53、tained in the EUROCONTROL Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) to determine the fuel consumption of a given ight. BADAJ. Scheelhaase et al. / Transportation Research Part D 15 (2010) 142517hasahistoryofbeingusedforglobalemissioninventories(e.g. the FAAs SAGEinventories) andcanbeconsideredastandard for such

54、applications (Federal Aviation Administration, 2005). In its latest edition, the database contains information on 91 aircraft types including most airliners and a number of smaller types. Aircraft for which no data are available can be repre- sented by models with similar characteristics.3.1.2. Airc

55、raft performance modelling with BADABADA data and formulae assume the aircraft as a point mass. In principle, they balance the rate of work done by forces acting on the aircraft and the rate of increase in potential and kinetic energy (EUROCONTROL, 2004). This approach, mostly referred to as a Total

56、 Energy Model, is represented by the following equation:dvTAS dtdhT D vTAS m g dt m vTAS1T is the thrust (Newton), D the aerodynamic drag (Newton), m the aircraft mass (kg), vTAS = true airspeed (m/s), g the grav- itational acceleration (m/s2), and h = altitude (m).When modelling a cruise ight segme

57、nt, for example, the Total Energy Equation can be used to calculate the engine thrust required at any given operating point. The aircrafts cruise speed is usually known, while assuming a constant cruise alti- tude the rate-of-climb becomes zero. Since the aerodynamic drag is required in Eq. (1), lif

58、t and drag coefcients as well as the respective forces need to be calculated using BADA data and elementary equations of aerodynamics.Giventhethrustfrom Formula(1), thecorrespondingfuelowcanbedetermined. Inthe BADAmodel, thrust-specic fuel consumption g is a function of true airspeed. via g, the fuel ow f (in kg/min) is calculated utilising aircraft-specic fuel ow coefcients:vTASCf2g Cf11 fcr g T Cfer23Cf1 = the 1st thrust specic fuel consumption coefcient (kg/min/kN)Cf2 = 2nd thrust specic fuel consumption coefcient (kt)Cfcr = cruise fuel ow