2012PPT模板高手的选择.pptx

De-risking the Broadband Business Model Industry Outlook 2012 , November 24th 2011, London. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology Economics Technology, Deutsche Telekom. Changing business models Mobile OperatorMobile Operator GardenGarden CS VoiceCS Voice SMSSMS Mobile DataMobile Data NetworkNetwork SIMSIM BillingBilling 50 50 700700 MHzMHz CloudCloud SIMSIM “New”“New” BillingBilling WhitespaceWhitespace OTT AppsOTT Apps CoolstuffCoolstuff SmartdevicesSmartdevices RegulationRegulation Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. A typical mobile data traffic day in Europe. 3Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. 00:00 10:00 12:0022:0017:00 Illustration 6:008:00 voice data WorkHome On the Go Home On the Go EU Broadband for All & Everything Digital Agenda Europe 2020. 4 2013 +2 yrs 2011 now All Europeans have access to Broadband (wireless) All have access to 30 Mbps or higher. 2020 +9 yrs 50+% HH subscribe to 100 Mbps. 20% + 100% LTE + FTT-eNB + 50% FTTH / DOCSISx Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. + IoT 1 1 IoT = Internet of Things. Closing coverage gap Digital Agenda Europe 2020 . What does it mean. 5 By 2013 at least 30k HSPA BTS to cover the EU 20+% pop gap. By 2020 most (if not all) base stations support LTE advanced (15 todays fixed broadband earnings. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Internet-of-Things (IoT) Network for the 15+ Billion projected devices1 1 In Europe for every mobile device there will be 20+ IoT devices in 2020. 900 MHz 235 MHz (GSM) 1800 MHz 275 MHz (GSM) 2100 MHz 260 MHz 3G core band 3G 555555555555 2600 MHz 270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD) (Tech neutral) 70 Spectrum challenge 2012 - Pre-auction days. page 6 10 FBO 1 20 FBO 2 1020 2G (3G) 3G 2G (3G) 3G 2G (3G) 3G 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTELTELTELTELTELTE Illustration Uplink only All FDD Un-used spectrum MNO 1MNO 2MNO 3 Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator. 10 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. 900 MHz 235 MHz (GSM) 1800 MHz 275 MHz (GSM) 2100 MHz 260 MHz 3G core band 3G 555555555555 2600 MHz 270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD) (Tech neutral) 70 Spectrum challenge 2012 - Pre-auction days. page 7 10 FBO 1 20 FBO 2 1020 2G (3G) 3G 2G (3G) 3G 2G (3G) 3G 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTELTELTELTELTELTE Illustration Uplink only All FDD Un-used spectrum MNO 1MNO 2MNO 3 Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator. 10 Billions of Euro in mobile network assets. 2G and 3G tightly integrated. By 2012 still more than 20% on 2G. No 100% 3G pop/geo coverage. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. 900 MHz 235 MHz (Tech neutral) 1800 MHz 275 MHz (Tech neutral) 2100 MHz 260 MHz 3G core band 3G 5 MNO 2 MNO 3 MNO 1 3G3G 555555555555 2600 MHz 270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD) (Tech neutral) 70 Spectrum challenge 2012major disruption possible. page 8 10 FBO 1 20 FBO 2 1020 2G (3G) 3G2G (3G) 3G2G (3G) 3G 555555 2G (LTE) 5 LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) 555555 LTE 5 2G (LTE) LTELTELTELTELTE 555555 LTE 5 800 MHz 230 MHz (Tech neutral) LTE 5 LTELTELTELTELTE 55555Illustration Uplink only All FDD Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator. Greenfield reservation Secure min. 210 MHz Secure min. 210 MHz Secure min. 220+ MHz Secure min. 220+ MHz MNO 2 loose spectrum game! 10 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. 900 MHz 235 MHz (Tech neutral) 1800 MHz 275 MHz (Tech neutral) 2100 MHz 260 MHz 3G core band 3G 5 MNO 2 MNO 3 MNO 1 3G3G 555555555555 2600 MHz 270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD) (Tech neutral) 70 Spectrum challenge 2012major disruption possible. page 9 10 FBO 1 20 FBO 2 1020 2G (3G) 3G2G (3G) 3G2G (3G) 3G 555555 2G (LTE) 5 LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) LTE 2G (LTE) 555555 LTE 5 2G (LTE) LTELTELTELTELTE 555555 LTE 5 800 MHz 230 MHz (Tech neutral) LTE 5 LTELTELTELTELTE 55555Illustration Uplink only All FDD Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator. Greenfield reservation Secure min. 210 MHz Secure min. 210 MHz Secure min. 220+ MHz Secure min. 220+ MHz MNO 2 loose spectrum game!New entrant buying existing incumbent spectrum. Possible (catastrophic) loss of spectrum. (catastrophic) Loss of Value and Operation. Loss of future growth possibilities in LTE. 10 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. De-risking disruptive spectrum moves. 10 Spectrum partnership alliance(s). Value at risk game rather than incremental value add play. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Higher degree of network in-dependence Network Factory / Sharing. Spectral demand could exceed spectral efficiency between 2014 - 2016. When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency gains. ”Houston we have problems”. 11 1 Mobile operator with (1) 20MHz 800MHz (LTE), (2) 20MHz 900MHz (2GHSPA),(3) 50MHz 1800MHz (2GLTE), (4) 30MHz 2100MHz (HSPA+). Total spectrum position 120 MHz. Illustration of the European market 1 (*) realWireless report for Ofcom,: 4G Capacity Gains, Final Report, January 2011. 3G LTE LTE-a Conversion Leapfrog network capacity, e.g., Densification smart antennas Early LTE deployment Price, Control & Policy. More spectrum. The spectrum crunch. A lot more Complexity, Capex and Opex NOT GOOD AT ALL! Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. OTT Mobile Apps impact. Mobile Apps “attacks” the highest margin services. 12 22.4 1 12.7 1 Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research September 2011 Western Europe. 2010A MNO Centric ARPU 15.7 Voice 3.4 SMS 3.3 Data 6.5 Voice 6.2 1 Data By 2015 more than 70% of users have a smartphone ARPU Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. 13.0 Voice 3.8 SMS 2015E Mobile Centric ARPU 6.2 1 Data 23.0 OTT Mobile Apps impact. Mobile Apps “attacks” the highest margin services. 13 22.4 1 12.7 1 Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research September 2011 Western Europe. 2010A MNO Centric ARPU 2015E Apps Centric ARPU 15.7 Voice 3.4 SMS 3.3 Data 6.5 Voice 6.2 1 Data ? By 2015 more than 70% of users have a smartphone + 9.7+ Data ARPU ARPU MoIP Death to SMS. +43% VoIP Home & maybe Work. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Traffic & revenue changes in the last 12 month. 14 Illustration of the European Market Declining MinutesDeclining SMS Increasing DataDeclining ARPU (and top-line) #Customers#Customers #Customers#Customers Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. How to uplift the mobile data business case. Demand for new revenue, partnerships & collaboration models. 15 Economics of mobile data Free Cash Flow 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 Mobile Business model breakdown Innovation Increased spectrum availability. Early LTE deployment. Mobile Fixed partnership models. Structural off-loading1 Network APIs. Smarter & network friendlier devices. Femto cells. Network Aware Apps & Devices Internet of Things Location / Notifications / Payments Customer insights New revenue streams HSPA only, no LTE HSPA + LTE w. 50% off-load from 2012 Illustration of the European market 1 Note: off-loading here means any traffic migration from legacy technology or legacy spectrum bands to something else. LTE Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. New mobile revenue opportunities making up lost. How big will the piece of the cake be? 16 Mobile RevenuesMobile Revenues $1,200 $1,200 BnBn Internet of ThingsInternet of ThingsInternet of ThingsInternet of Things $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 BnBnBnBn ? ? ? ? Social MediaSocial Media $30+ $30+ BnBn Mobile EntertainMobile Entertain $55+ $55+ BnBn Online AdsOnline Ads $100+ $100+ BnBn HandsetsHandsetsHandsetsHandsets $340+ $340+ $340+ $340+ BnBnBnBn AppsApps $12+ $12+ BnBn 1 Sources: Apps from Berg Insight (2011), Social Media from Gartner (2011), Mobile Entertainment from Juniper Research (2011), Online Adds from MagnaGlobal (2011), Handsets from MarketsandMarkets (2011), Internet of Things from GSMA (2011). Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Synched notificationAd-hoc optimized route Vision - network aware mobile apps (1 of 2). Innovation is important remedy to mitigate risk. 17Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Optimized service delivery Traffic Profile voice data Primary indoor usage off-load possibilities. Off-busy-hour In-fill delivery. N Events vs 1 Event Vision - network aware mobile apps (2 of 2). Collaboration across Network, Device and Apps. 18 Smart (interconnected) devices Self-Optimized & Cognisant Network Network optimized OS & Apps Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. When Network is NOT a differentiator. SUBSTANTIAL financial benefits. NOT a solution to spectrum CRUNCH. COMPLEX Governance. Decreasing margins & increasing cash pressure Network consolidation & new partnerships. 19 Sharing logic Experience. Economics Total Opex 100% Technology Network 10% RAN saving RAN 7% Cluster Opex 40% Rollout 5+ years LTEHSPA+HSPA UMTS + GSM (LTE) Significant Capex prevention. Substantial Opex prevention. Best network more for less. Rollout Little Capex benefits. Substantial Opex savings. High write-off & restructure cost. Steady State Capex prevention (sharing of modernization). Substantial Opex savings. Minor write-off & contract termination cost. Modernization Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK. Transparent off-loading strategies. Inside-out coverage with in-home backhaul connectivity (i.e., via VDSL, Fiber, ). Honest always-best-connected offers. Fixed Mobile Convergence. Technology & business reasons for FMC. 20 Mobile & Fixed t