HNDInvestment投资学报告GU3第二部分.doc

Analyze On November 8, 2007, the second biggest mining enterprise of the world which is BHP had already emitted the buy intention to the third biggest mining enterprise all round the world which is Rio Tinto. This information coverage is very broad. To BHP company buying to Rio Tinto industry inside appraise differ. Information once puts up the BHP share price had rising.BHP is one comprehensiveness energy company. Have very good influence in the field producing the ore and petroleum gas. Because of world crude oil price was advance ceaselessness, various energy price goes up also with that. As leader of this industry, the enterprise was gained more advantages, in line with the merger information the company share prices was go up straightly . People have very much to expectation of BHP. To the company, development of hereafter has confidence also very much.Rio Tinto had given a counterpunch that was BHP would spend 138 billion U. S. dollar buying. Rio Tintos implementation director Tom Albanese announced, he will open out branches of company which were underestimated by market, for instance, aluminum industry and mineral domain of company in West Africa. News of refusing the merger made the stock price went up, and sanguine investors were hit deeply. Organization of international iron and steel opposes BHP bought Rio Tinto. BHP will be able to trend had the industry monopolizing if buying success, such condition is very harmful for the market. That information had blocked an investors decision.To the thing that this buys, the Chinese iron and steel industry also holds the wait and see attitude, all obstruction made the stocks once come down. Though this buys information, the share price to BHP has brought about certain fluctuation. But the BPH was a big energy company, the other resources share prices grow up caused by the crude oil prices raise, this information was also made the company shares continued to gone up. Especially because of the crude oil factor lead to the company share prices still going up.Thomson indicates that, the volume of trade in 2007 years increases from 136,300,000,000 U. S. dollar of 2006 years to210, 500,000,000 U. S. dollar. That Aussie oil gas childbirth merchant BHP Billiton Ltd. says it closes the Griffin oil field is located in the west bay sea for the time being Tuesday， because of hurricane is coming. With regard to such information is also reported having been member of stock fluctuation above and able to be very penetrating to see the factor of petroleum impacted on the energy company. Today going up in the energy company price moreover the moment may continue going up, the great majority investors will invest in the industry from at present most probably high risk , suppose that real estate , the bank withdraw, and turn to investing in the energy company. With the escalation needing, price will also continue going up. When being confronted with low tide to world economy, the energy company share has let an investor see the hopes.Compare From the chart, we can see that the BHP Billition Company has high level with the whole sector, and hardly any difference.The company introduction Finally, the Hammerson PLC, the Hammerson, real estate of European magnitude Managers of huge real estate properties, placing them amongst the European leaders in their sector of activity with 16 shopping centers and 280 000 m2 of prime offices, the British based Hammerson group is expert in its domain. They offer functional and practical rented space, offices, as well as business centres. All that not only available in Great Britain, but also in France and Germany. From an immense area : the Brent Cross in London graced with shops and restaurants to the Forum Steglitz in Berlin. Then on to Italy 2 in the 13th arrondissement of Paris, offering more than 130 brands, followed by sublimely furnished offices at 14 bd Haussmann, located in Paris 9th arrondissement. The latest significant news for Hammerson is the concluded acquisition of its rival and fellow countryman Grantchester in 2002.This company has 289,314,000 shares, and property was its sector, its sub-industry was property, investment and asset management.HARMMERSON PLCDate Data11.30.20071,138.0012.07.20071,094.0012.14.2007968.0012.21.2007977.5012.28.20071,009.0001.04.2008965.0001.11.2008933.5001.18.20081,054.0001.25.20081,417.0002.01.20081,130.0002.08.20081,060.0002.15.20081,035.0002.22.20081,059.0002.29.20081,105.0003.07.20081,088.0003.14.20081,061.0003.21.20081,062.0003.28.20081,084.00The figures present the movements of this company. As can be see, in 2007 year, the price grew quickly from Nov30 to Dec7, but in Dec14, it is started to decline until Dce21 and had little rise in Dec28. In 2008 year, the prices was in the ebb situation, there was the lowest point in Jan4 to Jan11 (965.00 to 933.50), reached the bottom. but on Jan25 the prices reached the peak. Though out one week change, the price started to decreased gradually, and there was a small fluctuation in the prices from Feb1 to Mar28.Among this period, the prices had taken place some changes, but it remained in the steady situation. Analyze The world economy had turbulence in 2007 year. Be furthermore dismal as for real estate industry. With house price toboggan, USA has broken out the secondary loan crisis had direct impact to the world economy pattern. With the secondary loan crisis aggravating, coverage is also affected at Europe stock market. Because of impacted by the secondary loan crisis, the bank of England had retrenched the credit, so that strike to real estate industry is also very enormous.Dec. 20. The bank lending to U.K. commercial real estate investors and developers could fall by 22 percent and erode profit as banks try to cut risk. Real estate shares are the worst performers in the FTSE All-Share Index this year, down 37 percent, double the 18 percent decline in bank stocks. Barclays Plc is the most exposed U.K. bank to a drop in the value of commercial mortgage- backed securities. Passed the low tide in real estate in 2007 years, the beginning of the 2008 years, the real estate industry had the obvious rebound trends. On Nov.21, the share prices that real estate had raise straightly, include Hammerson plc, Land Securities, Unibali-Rodamco, and their go up divided into 6.2%, 7.3%, and 6.3%. Face real estate share notability returns recently, the investor begins to appraise position to this plate again.January 15, 2008. This morning Hammerson indicated that yet,the company had done a trade with the chain of Marks & Spencer that run general merchandise business. M & S storefront would enter Leeds edifice developed by Hammerson. This news led hammerson plc stock price increased at 0.9%.The beginning of 2008 year, United Kingdom some big estate companys share prices appear the rebound trends in Unite Kingdom. Many information shown that the real estate industry was a strong rebound in the United Kingdom in 2008. Many investors believe that although the real estate industry suffered the impact of the secondary loan crisis but because of the strong financial capability can be make the losses keep the minimized. Enter to 2008, after the pessimistic mood of investors and have a lot of more confidence on the real estate industry, for several major real estate company, the foreground was expected by the investors. With investors the pessimistic emotional decline for the real estate industry, its share prices will sustained rise, but it does not rule out the impact of the secondary loan crisis extended to 2008.Compare This company development always well, although suffered the impacted on the secondary loan crisis in 2007, this company still keep the favourable state to develop. The events that have impacted on the stock market all round theworldFor the world economy, 2007 was a special year. Many economic events in the world economy have been taking place, these events immediacy affected the stock market all round the world.Firstly, the international crude oil price reached new height point once again and to reach 99 U. S. dollar/ barrels. Crude oil forward price breaks 99 U. S. dollar at one stroke on New York commodity market on November 21, having only has 71 cents to 100 U.S.dollar. This was new price since paying 94 U.S.dollar/barrel high prices for international crude oil in 1984.Under effect rising in price of large margins in international crude oil, in main the industrialized country and development country has all accepted level of annual inflation rate of 8 countries to have exceeded 5% in whole world. Including China, India , Russia and Brazil.Secondly, the great event of world economic arena was the secondary loan crisis. This started within American and almost affected the whole world, main industrialized countries financial market had all accepted the seriousness unequal credit crisis effect second half of the year. Unite the central bank storing the affecting down, main industrialized country that lowered interest up in US, including that Europe centre and United Kingdom centre etc. had stopped adding interest step also consecutively. For saving the bank and banking institution being cornered because time lends crisis to, in every country, the central bank pours money numerously and confusedly to the marketplace. Have no way to judge if secondary loan crisis already calm down at present, whether can bob up again in 2008 still is an unknown. At the time of 10 anniversaries happened in Asian financial crisis, time of loan crisis infestation gives international financial market an alarm bell. The whole world stock established out new height being also the phenomenon that the world economic field worthy for to take seriously in 2007. A lot of better-off fund flows to real estate and stock market deduce high house price and share price. Within 3 years in the past, main the whole world industrialized country house price has appeared equally to go up obviously, Chinese house price has gone up causing person to pay close attention to especially. While housing market appears to be flourishing as never before, the whole world stock market can not compare irritable this year. Finally, the economy market in British, the Bank of England, announced measures to cut the interest on December 6, 2007. Banks will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Bank of England indicated that the cut interest which is mainly concerns the dimensionless secondary loan crisis costs arising from the increase will be a drag on economic growth. On February 7,2008, the British Central Bank announced as scheduled reduces the interest rate 25 basic points to 5.25%, which was the British Central Banks secondarily reduced the interest rate by the 25 basic point after last December. But British announced before this in December that industrial monthly output had fallen by 0.1%, the year rise 0.6%in December. It is makes the immovable property to be on monthly duty falls 0.2%,the annual rate is impartial, and the short-term British economic indication will not be generally good, will have the market therefore to anticipate that the British Central Bank will reduce the interest rate 50 basic point to prevent the economy into the decline. From 2007 year, the all share index and FTSE 100 index both impacted by the world economy, and start to decline gradually. Forecast In the future, I think that the share market all round the world will take on the better trends. First, the Associated British Food PLC performance will increase, because of the food is the indispensable thing in our daily life, the demand for food is never stop, so it will promote whole food sector continuance to rise. Meanwhile, there is a problem wait for us, that is with the price index go up and the person consumption is decrease, lead to the whole food sector will profit is very tiny, the ABF company will impacted by it at once, this problem is worthy to note.Next, the British Sky Broadcasting will keep the steady. The media is a mature sector in Unit Kingdom. Nowadays, the media is more and more important for person, becoming necessity gradually in this society. With the media development is sure to enhancement the share prices of the British Sky Broadcasting.After that, the BHP Billition have endless potentialities, the energy take up the most important position, whatever department and whichever country both need the energy, the demand for energy is grow up straightly in 21 century. For instance, the international crude oil price was broken out the highest point in 2007year, reached the peak. So the BHP Billition has a huge progress space.Finally, the hammerson plc company development better and better in the future that I think. The secondary loan crisis in USA in 2007 year was impacted all over the world, led to the whole real estate industry losses very much, and the hammerson plc was not have a narrow escape, its share prices decline for a time. Beginning of 2008 year, the hammerson prices take a stronger rebound and continence to rise, but because of the secondary loan crisis, this company and whole real estate sector need do more endeavours can be keep this good results in 2008 year. Conclusion In this report, I have already analyzed the company shares about I chosen, and the events impacted on the stock market in the world. In 2007 year, the international crude oil price goes up quickly and the secondary loan crisis in USA makes the world economy take place huge change. The world economy stand in the fluctuation situation, even occur the phenomenon that is stagnation and not go ahead. In stock market in UK, some stocks have not impacted on it and still keep the development well, meanwhile, some stocks had decline from 2007 year. For example, the Hammerson plc that is real estate industry impacted by the secondary loan crisis, the share prices drop to the low point. But enter to 2008 year, prices has rebound gradually. In the all share index, the real estate sector still also continuance to rise. Nowadays, the lack of resources and more and more demand for energy, the international crude oil prices has grow up quickly and the whole energy sector development steadily.In a words, some economists says that passed by the 9.11, the world economy always stand in low tide situation and lead to the economy market and stock market both wandered the low point in UK. Under this situation, some stock prices passed by ebb for short time then jump to the satisfaction position and keep it. Reference 1. Uk.finacial.yahoo (2008) FTSE 100 index/ accessed Nov.30 to Mar.282. London stock exchange (2008) sector index accessed 10.04.20083. Aerimt, (28.02.2008), British economy slowed in 2007 /s/afp/20080328/bs_afp/britaineconomygrowth accessed 08.03.2008 4. News Release (06.12.2007) Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 0.25 Percentage Points to 5.5%Available from: http:/www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2007/156.htm acce