房地产评估与房地产经济学马里兰大学丁成日.ppt

房地产评估与房地产经济学,Chengri Ding Associate Professor National Center for Smart Growth University of Maryland Special Assistant To President of Lincoln Institute of Land Policys China Program,丁成日博士 马里兰大学城市规划系终身教授 马里兰大学城市理性增长国家中心,林肯土地政策研究院总裁特别助理兼中国部主任,What is Real Estate Economics 什么是房地产经济学,Is about people and how their actions affect real estate values 房地产经济研究人以及人的行为影响房地产价值 Real estate economics is a study that uses economic principles, both macro and micro, to analyze the impact that national, regional, community, and neighborhood trends have on real estate values. 房地产经济学使用微观和宏观经济学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响 It helps people to understand what causes fluctuations in real estate activity and how these changes can affect local real estate markets. 房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场,What are Factors that Affect the Value of a Property 影响房地产价值的因素,Capital marketssupply side 资本市场供给方面 Labor marketsdemand side 劳动力市场需求方面 Population growthdemand side 人口增长需求方面 Market segmentationlocality of supply and demand, types or uses, characteristics of property etc. 市场分割供需的地方性，类型或使用，房地产特性等,What are Factors that Affect the Value of a Property 影响房地产价值的因素,Interrelationship between sub-markets of properties 房地产子市场的相关性 Regulations and laws (taxation, land use regulation) 规定与法律 （税收、土地利用规定） Urban infrastructure and neighborhood amenity 城市基础设施和社区舒适度 Political, social, and economic forces 政治、社会和经济力量,Capital Market and Property Market 资本市场和房地产市场,Supply of structure 对结构（建筑面积）的需求 Market prices and net operating income of a property (rent) 市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金） Interrelationship between capital market and real estate market (short run and long run) 资本市场和房地产市场的相关性（短期和长期）,Real Estate Market and Market Equilibrium 房地产市场和市场平衡,Capital market induced increases in supply, decrease in rents 资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低,The impact of decrease in the market capitalization rate on real estate market,Location and Value of a Property 房地产区位和价值,Supply of land Urban land rent gradient and land price Relation between urban land price and capital density Land price and urban land use (spatial structure),土地供给 城市土地租金梯度和土地价格的关系 城市土地价格和资本密度的关系 土地价格和城市土地利用（空间结构）,Urban Land Market 城市土地市场,Supply of land is inelastic, demand is elastic 土地供给是非弹性的，需求是弹性的,Translating rents to land prices 将租金转化为土地价值,Rents are a function of: Agricultural land value Value of the structures Location value Expected growth in location value,租金是包括如下因子的函数： 农用土地价格 建筑结构价格 区位价格 预计区位价格的增长,Translating rents to land prices 将租金转化为土地价值,Prices are a function of: Interest rates Expected rent growth Risk of rental payment Tax regime,价格是一个如下因素决定的函数： 利率 预计租金增长 租金支付风险 税收体制,Land use efficiency indicated by high-degree of land-capital input substitution 土地和资本投入的 相互替代程度, 关系到城市土地使用效率的高低,Density Profile with Land Markets 土地市场下的城市密度 空间变化,Paris,Land Price (rent gradient) and Spatial Structure 级差地租与空间结构,Land values in multi-nuclear cities,City Spatial Form and Growth,City Spatial Form and Growth,Housing Economics 住房经济学,Characteristics of housing commodity and housing markets Heterogeneity (style, rooms, location, amenity, urban services etc.) Immobility A change in housing consumption means a change in residential location High transaction costs Market segmentations,房屋及其房屋市场的特性 异质性 （风格， 房间数， 位置， 城市服务等） 不可移动性 住房消费的变化意味着驻地的变化 高的交易成本 分割的市场,Housing Economics 住房经济学,What is consumed? It is attributes of housing that includes structural factors and locational amenity Wide range of variation in price change across cities as well as across locality within a city Buying a house = investment? Maybe.,住房消费？消费的是房屋的属性 （结构，大小，区位属性等) 城市间， 一个城市内部不同地理位置房屋价格基期价格的变化相当不同 买房不等于投资,Housing Economics 住房经济学,房屋价格函数,P = Housing price; 房屋价格 S = Vector of structure variables;结构矢量 L = Vector of locational (access) variables 区位矢量 N = Vector of neighborhood variables; 邻里矢量,Housing Economics 住房经济学,房屋价格函数,What is the meaning of this partial derivatives? Marginal prices 偏导的意义？ 边际价格,Spatial drift of coefficients (marginal prices), implying that the cost of one additional room varies across locality. 边际价格的空间“漂移”, 如，加一个房间的价格在不同地方是不一样的,Housing Economics 住房经济学,房屋市场均衡(Rosen, 1974),决定房屋的价格,影响房地产价格的外在因素,Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces 政治、社会和经济力量的影响,External Factors of Property Markets 房地产市场的外在因素,2. Regional and Community Analysis 区域与社区分析,3. Neighborhood Value Analysis 邻里单元价值分析,4. Land Use Planning 土地利用规划,Political Forces influencing Value 政治因素影响价值 Property rights and ownership 财产权和所有权 The fifth and Fourteenth Amendments in US 美国第五和第十四修正案 Federal financing aids and fiscal policy controls 联邦财政补助和财政控制 Rate of interests 利率,Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces 政治、社会和经济力量的影响,Social Forces influencing Value 社会因素影响价值 Population growth rate (timely and spatially) 人口增长率（时间与空间） Demographic composition (age, race, gender, income) 人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入） Housing preference (Housing/per 1000 people) 住房偏好（住房/千人）,Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces 政治、社会和经济力量的影响,General Economic forces Influencing Value 影响价值的经济因素 Gross national product 国民生产总值 Per capita income and real wage levels 人均收入和实际收入水平 Unemployment as a measure of full employment. Correlation between unemployment, property foreclosures, and property tax delinquencies 失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性 Personal saving and investments个人存款和投资 General business and real estate activity 主要商业和地产活动,State and Regional Forces Influencing Value 国家和区域因素影响价值 Differentials of policy and law 政策和法律差异 Differentials of economic prospective 经济远景差异 etc.等等,Government Tools in the Real Estate Market 房地产市场中的政府手段,Analyze how government actions affect property value and make appropriate changes 分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化 Monitor market activity to queue proposals, lessening the boom/bust cycle 监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环 Use economic development policies to attract uses that fit with the regions master plan 使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用， 其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至,Local Government and Property Value 地方政府和房地产价值,Ability to provide service affects value 服务能力影响价值 Crime rate 犯罪率 Fire protection 火警预防 Ease of doing business affects value 从事商务活动的方便性影响价值 Property tax rate 房地产税率 Regulatory environment 政策规范环境 Liquor license 酒精饮料销售许可 Zoning requirements 分区要求,Local Government and Property Value 地方政府和房地产价值,Externalities from nearby uses affect value 周围环境等外在因素影响环境 Noise from airports 机场噪声 Pollution from factories 工厂污染,Monitoring Land Market Activity 监控土地市场活动,Goal is to prevent overbuilding that leads to vacancies, disinvestment, and blight 目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落 Still need to encourage commercial development to increase property tax base and promote economic development 仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展,Monitoring Land Market Activity 监控土地市场活动,Policy Tool: Development Queuing 政策工具：开发次序 Planners accept proposals and grant permission to build only if market conditions indicate that demand can absorb the new space 规划师审查规划方案，仅审批那些市场可以消化的建设 Planners estimate market conditions through traditional means gathering data about rents, vacancy rates, current construction, job growth, and spending patterns 规划师采用传统方式收集租金数据，空置率，建设现状，就业率增长和消费模式来估计市场形势,The Real Estate Market 房地产市场 Immobility 固定性 Indestructibility 不可破坏性 Non-homogeneity 异质性 Property dissimilarity imposes special market conditions 房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件,2. Regional and Community Analysis 区域和社区分析,The Real Estate Market 房地产市场 Durability of real estate causes mal-adjustments in both supply and demand on a local market level 房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整 Studying the underlying forces creating supply and demand for real property 研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量,2. Regional and Community Analysis 区域和社区分析,Cause of Urbanization 城市化的结果 City Spatial Form and Growth 城市空间形态和增长 Regional Analysis 区域分析 Regional analysis techniques: economic base analysis, regional input-output analysis 区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析,Regional and Community Analysis 区域和社区分析,Population Trends and Characteristics 人口趋势和特征 Economic Measures of Community Growth 社区增长的经济量化 Land Use Pattern 土地利用模式,Regional and Community Analysis 区域和社区分析,Neighborhood Defined 邻里的定义 The Neighborhood Age Cycle 邻里单元的周期,3. Neighborhood Value Analysis 邻里单元价值分析,临街土地价值,时间,成熟期,成长期,衰退期,向次级经济活动转变,老化期,Neighborhood Characteristics 邻里单元的特征 Physical features 物质特征 Demographic characteristics 人口特征 Economic influences 经济影响,3. Neighborhood Value Analysis 邻里单元价值分析,Highest and Best Use Principle 最高与最好使用原则,Highest and Best Use Principle 最高与最好使用原则,Concepts Present value Amortization Value, capital rate, and rent (Net operating incomerent) Future value (=0) Highest and best use analysis,概念 现在价值 分期偿还 价值，资金率和租金（净收益租金） 未来价值 最高与最佳使用分析,Highest and Best Use Analysis 最高与最好分析,The highest and best use of vacant land 闲置土地的最高与最佳使用 The highest and best use of the improved site 已开发土地的最高与最佳原则,Highest and Best Use Analysis 最高与最好分析,Four criteria: Physical possible: size, shape, terrain, capacity, availability of utilities etc. Legally permissible: restriction, zoning, building codes, environmental regulations and others laws. Financial feasible: if the project produce an income or return equal to or greater than the amount needed to cover costs. Maximally productive.,四项条件： 物质上可行：尺寸，形态，地形，容量，服务设施等 法律上允许：限制，分区，建筑规范，环境规则和其他法律 经济上可行：如果项目产出等于或大于投入 最大生产率,Apartment Office Retail 公寓 办公 零售 Cost of construction $1,021,600 $928,000 $817,300 建设投资 Effective gross income 有效毛收入 $ 265,000 $ 200,000 $180,000 Operating expenses - $ 135,000 - $ 80,000 - $ 69,000 运营费用 - - - $ 130,000 $ 120,000 $111,000 Assuming a 20 year-year life for the building, then PV = the cost of construction, FV = 0, i=1, n=20.,Highest and Best Use for a Vacant Lot 闲置土地的最高与最佳使用,For Apartment: NOI to land = NOI of total - building amortization cost $10,000 = $130,000 - $120,000 Site Value: V=R/I = 10,000/0.10 = $100,000 Apartment Office Retail Income to building 10% $120,000 $109,000 $96,000 Income to site $ 10,000 $ 11,000 $15,000 Indicated site value 10% $100,000 $110,000 $150,000 So Retail has the highest value for the site,Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved 房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,The alternatives are: Renovate the existing stores, spending $20,000 Convert the existing space to offices, spending $40,000 Demolish and construct a new building,不同方案: 更新现存商店，花2万美元 改成办公，花4万 拆除，建设新办公楼,Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved 房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,Existing Demolish, Use Converted Construct (retail) Office New Blg Acquisition price $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 Renovation cost $20,000 $40,000 0 Construction cost 0 0 $700,000 Demolish cost 0 0 $ 30,000 Total costs $220,000 $240,000 $930,000 The acquisition price will be allocated 80 percent to improvement and 20 percent to land. PV = building costs, FV = 0, i = 10, n = estimated economic life.,Existing Demolish, Use Converted Construct (retail) Office New Blg Building cost (80%) $160,000 $160,000 $ 0 New construction 20,000 40,000 700,000 Total Allocated to $180,000 $200,000 $700,000 Building Economic life 15 yr 15 yr 20 yr Return to Building $23,665 $26,295 $77,118 10%,Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved 房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,Existing Demolish, Use Converted Construct (retail) Office New Blg Effective gross income $ 41,000 $ 47,000 $123,000 Operating expenses - 12,000 - 16,000 - 20,000 - - - N