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语言文化论文-Why has the global capital market grown so rapidly in recent decades-Will this growth continue throughout the 2000s-.doc语言文化论文-Why has the global capital market grown so rapidly in recent decades-Will this growth continue throughout the 2000s-.doc -- 2 元

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语言文化论文WhyhastheglobalcapitalmarketgrownsorapidlyinrecentdecadesWillthisgrowthcontinuethroughoutthe2000sBU2207InternationalBusinessEnvironmentTutorsIreneGreaves,LindaOnyekaStudentNameSihaoXieDate14JANUARY2002IntroductionDictionaryofBusinessdefinesthecapitalmarketasamarketinwhichlongtermcapitalisraisedbyindustryandcommerce,thegovernment,andlocalauthorities.Themoneycomesfromprivateinvestors,insurancecompanies,pensionfunds,andbanksandisusuallyarrangedbyissuinghousesandmerchantbanks.Stockexchangesarealsopartofthecapitalmarketinthattheyprovideamarketforthesharesandloanstocksthatrepresentthecapitalonceithasbeenraised.Itisthepresenceandsophisticationoftheircapitalmarketsthatdistinguishestheindustrialcountriesfromthedevelopingcountries,inthatthisfacilityforraisingindustrialandcommercialcapitaliseitherabsentorrudimentaryinthelatter.Theglobalcapitalmarkethasgrownsorapidlyinrecentdecades.SoIwouldliketodiscussaboutitintheessay.Thisessayisorganizedasfollow,introduction,body,conclusion.Inthebodypart,Section1showswhyhastheglobalcapitalmarketgrownsorapidlyinrecentdecades.Section2talksaboutthecontinuanceofthegrowththroughoutthe2000s.Body1.WhyhastheglobalcapitalmarketgrownsorapidlyinrecentdecadesInrecentdecades,theglobalcapitalmarkethasgrownsorapidlybecauseoftheriseofprivatizationsmainly.Withprivatecapitalflowsrisingfromlessthan5percentofworldGDPin1975toabout20percenttoday,privatizationshavesignificantlyincreasedmarketliquidity.Andalsoprivatizationtakesapotentialroleglobalcapitalmarketdevelopment.A.TheRiseofCapitalMarketBasedFinanceCapitalmarketbasedfinancehasinfactbeenincreasinginimportance,bothabsolutelyandrelativetofinancialintermediarybasedfinance,inbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesoverthepastdecade.Andalsocapitalmarketsareinfactwinningthepresentandseemlikelytodominatethefutureofcorporatefinanceindevelopedanddevelopingcountriesalike.a.TheStableRoleofCommercialBankinginModernEconomiesOrdinaryrelationshipbankingappearstobeatbestholdingitsownasasourceofcorporatefinancingaroundtheworld,andismorelikelyindecline.Thebitsofbankingthataregrowingrapidlyarethosepartsthatprovidehighvalueaddedproductsespeciallyriskmanagementtoolsandprovidelargescalesyndicatedcreditstocorporateborrowers.Duringthelate1980sandearly1990s,whenJapanandGermanyappearedtobeoutperformingmajorcapitalmarketorientedcountriessuchasBritainandtheUS,theacademicliteratureoftenfavoredbankbasedsystems.ExamplesofthisliteratureincludeProwse1992,Kester1992,andPorter1992,whilethesupportingargumentsaresummarizedinMaherandAndersson1999andTsuru2000.Morerecently,however,theweightofopinionhasswungstronglyinfavoroftheideathatcapitalmarketshavedecisivecomparativeadvantagesoverbanksandotherfinancialintermediariesasoptimalmonitorsandfinanciersofanationscorporatelife.Thisreassessmenthasbeendriveninpartbytheobservation,discussedatlengthabove,thatcapitalmarketshavebeenprosperingrelativetobanksformanyyearsnow.Therepetitivenatureandmassivecostsofbankingcrisesindevelopinganddevelopedcountriesalikehasalsoconvincedmanyobserversthatbanksareinherentlyfragileinstitutions,whoseroleincorporatefinanceshouldbeminimizedasmuchandasquicklyaspossibleEconomist1997,1999.b.TheRapidGrowthinStockMarketCapitalizationandTradingVolumeSince1983From1983to2000,thiswasaperiodofveryrapidgrowthinthecapitalizationofmarketsineverycountryexceptJapan.Totalworldmarketcapitalizationincreasedovertenfoldto35.0trillionbetween1983and1999,andthetotalcapitalizationoftheUSmarketincreasedalmostninefoldfrom1.9trillionto16.6trillionoverthesameperiod.c.TheDramaticGrowthinSecuritiesIssuanceVolumeSince1990Anotherwayofmeasuringtheriseofcapitalmarketsistoexaminewhethertheirshareofannualcorporatefinancingactivityhasgrownrelativetothatofothersourcesoffunding.SecurityofferingsbyUSissuersaccountedfortwothirdsoftheglobaltotalthroughout19901999,thatimpliesthatnonUSsecuritiesissuesincreasedfrom191billionin1990to750billionin1998,andthento1.19trillionin1999.ThesurgeinnonUSissuancevolumein1999waslargelyduetothepopularityofeurodenominatedbondissues,whichactuallyexceededdollardenominatedbondissuesformuchof1999.d.ThePhenomenalGrowthinVentureCapitalFinancingintheUnitedStatesOnehighlyspecialized,butextremelyimportanttypeoffinancinghasalsogrownveryrapidlyoverthepastdecade,andespeciallysosince1997.ThisisventurecapitalinvestmentbyUSventurecapitalpartnerships.ThefundraisingpatternsoftheseprivateequityinvestorsarediscussedinGompersandLerner1998,andthecompetitiveadvantagesofUSventurecapitalistsversusthoseinotherdevelopedcountriesaredescribedinBlackandGilson1998.e.TheSurgeinMergersandAcquisitionsWorldwideThealmostincredibleincreaseinthetotalvolumeofmergerandacquisitionactivitythathasoccurredsince1990.WhiletakeovershavealwaysplayedanimportantroleintheUnitedStates,theriseinMAMergerandAcquisitionactivityinEuropeduringthe1990swasevenmoredramatic.Fromlessthan50billionannuallyinthelate1980s,thetotalvalueofMAinvolvingaEuropeantargetreached592billionin1998,beforemorethandoublingto1.22trillionin1999rivalingtheUStotal.TheglobalvalueofMAactivityin1999reached3.4trillion,anastounding10ofworldGDP.NextIwilldocumentthatshareissueprivatizationshavetrulytransformedshareownershippatternsofinvestorsinmanydifferentcountries.B.PrivatizationsImpactonStockandBondMarketDevelopmentWeshouldbecarefulininferringcausationregardingprivatizationsimpactonmarketgrowth,sinceashiftinideologyorsomeotherexogenouspoliticaloreconomicchangemighthavecausedboththeprivatizationandtheoverallboom.a.TotalProceedsRaisedbyPrivatizationProgramsItisclearthatnationalgovernmentshavebeenamongthebiggestwinnersfromprivatizationprograms,sincethesehavedramaticallyincreasedgovernmentrevenues,whichisclearlyonereasonthepolicyhasspreadsorapidly.Asmentionedabove,PrivatisationInternationalGibbon1998,2000reportsthatthecumulativevalueofproceedsraisedbyprivatizinggovernmentsexceeded1trillionsometimeduringthesecondhalfof1999.Asanaddedbenefit,thisrevenuehascometogovernmentswithouthavingtoraisetaxesorcutotherpublicservices.b.PrivatizationsImpactonInternationalInvestmentBankingAllinternationalinvestmentbankscompetefiercelyforshareissueprivatizationmandates,fortwoprincipalreasons.First,becausetheofferingsaresolargeandsovisibleandarealmostalwaysdesignedtohelppromotethemarketscapacitytoabsorbsubsequentstockofferingsbyprivatecompaniestheseareveryprestigiousmandates.Todate,thelargeUSandBritishbrokeragehouseshavehadthemostsuccessinwinningadvisoryandunderwritingmandates,thoughallcountriesthatlaunchlargescaleSIPprogramstendtofavorlocalinvestmentbanksasnationalchampionstohandlethedomesticsharetranche.ThesecondreasonbankscompetesofiercelyforSIPmandatesisbecausetheycanbeextremelyprofitable.InspiteofthefactdocumentedbyJones,etal1999andLjungqvist,etal2000thatSIPshavesignificantlylowerunderwritingspreadsthanprivatesectorofferings,theirsheersizeandlackofdownsidepriceriskmakethemverylucrativeforunderwriters.2.Willthisgrowthcontinuethroughoutthe2000sAsweindicatedabove,theglobalcapitalmarkethasgrownsorapidlyinrecentdecadescauseoftheprivatizationsrise.Privatizationsincreasedthemarketliquidity.Nowwehavealreadysteppedintothe21stcentury.Ibelievethatthegrowthwillcontinueforthefollowingreasons.First,mostofthesoutheastAsiacountrieshaverecoveredfromthe1997financialcrisis.Forthesecountries,theynowhavethecapitaltodobusinesses.Andtheygetbackonthefastgrowingtrack.Second,bytheendof2001,worldsbiggestdevelopingcountry,China,hasenteredtheWTOWorldTradeOrganization.Thisisrealgreatnews.Asweallknow,todaysChinatakesaseriouspositioninworldseconomy.ItsinnovationandopeningpolicymakechinakeepachievinghighGDPgrowthrate.Thisdrivestheglobalcapitalmarketkeepgrowing.SummaryandConclusionsThisessayexaminestheimpactofshareissueprivatizationsSIPsonthegrowthofworldcapitalmarketsespeciallystockmarkets.Ibeginbydocumentingtheincreasingimportanceofcapitalmarkets,andthedecliningroleofcommercialbanks,incorporatefinancialsystemsaroundtheworld.IthenshowthatprivatizationprogramsparticularlythoseinvolvingpublicshareofferingshavehadadramaticimpactbothonthedevelopmentofnonUSstockmarketsandontheparticipationofindividualandinstitutionalinvestorsinthosestockmarkets.Thishastoldthereasonofthefastgrowthofglobalcapitalmarket.AndthenIsuccinctlyindicatedthecontinuanceoftherapidgrowth,thegreatfuture.Thelastbutnottheleastistherecommendation.Icanconfidentlyassertthat,ifexecutedproperly,aseriesofshareissueprivatizationscanindeedpromotethegrowthofglobalcapitalmarket,whichwillyieldeconomicandpoliticaldividendsformanyyearstocome.ThatmeansthereisaneedtoencouragethedevelopmentofSIPsinordertogaingrowth
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