商品行业：重大事件的演变重塑大宗商品的风险格局

商品行业重大事件的演变重塑大宗商品的风险格局2011年3月29日全球商品市场观察研究报告重大事件的演变重塑大宗商品的风险格局我们对SPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEX的12个月回报率为143的预测面临上行风险。2011年的风险格局正趋于转变为石油供求偏紧而基本金属供求偏松中东/北非的政治骚乱以及日本地震等事件的演变已大大改变了大宗商品的风险格局，一方面加大了石油市场周期性供求偏紧提前到来的风险、加大了工业金属市场周期性供求偏紧推迟出现的风险，另一方面进一步增加了黄金和农产品价格的上行风险。虽然我们的主要观点仍是油价有望小幅下降，除大豆之外的农产品价格也将下降，而金属价格有望大幅上涨，但目前面临的风险却显示这些产品的价格可能向相反方向变动。这一信息对指数投资者而言非常重要，因为能源和农产品通常在指数中所占权重最大。因此，虽然我们维持对SPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEX12个月回报率为143的预测，但同时认为该预测面临的风险明显趋于上行。随着各国政府开始着手应对，大宗商品市场暂作休整我们看到，在近期出现一系列市场动态的背景下，主要大宗商品的交易量大幅下降。我们认为这反映了市场在评估政府的应对举措时采取了观望态度，这进一步加大了市场的不确定性。ALLISONFNATHAN2123577504ALLISONNATHANGS4高盛集团杰夫可瑞442077746112JEFFREYCURRIEGS高盛国际DAVIDGREELY2129022850DAVIDGREELYGS高盛集团DAMIENCOURVALIN2129023307DAMIENCOURVALINGS高盛集团JOSHUACRUMB442077742535JOSHUACRUMBGS高盛国际SAMANTHADART442075529350SAMANTHADARTGS高盛国际JOHANSPETZ442075525946JOHANSPETZGS高盛国际高盛集团与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。关于重要的信息披露，请参阅信息披露之前的部分或登陆GS/RESEARCH/HEDGEHTML或请与您的投资代表联系。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2HEDGINGANDTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSPETROLEUMHEDGINGRECOMMENDATIONSCONSUMERSGLOBALINVENTORIESDREWSUBSTANTIALLYIN2H2010,ANDWEEXPECTUSINVENTORIESTOCONTINUETODRAWTOMORENORMALLEVELSIN2011WITHTHESUPPLYDEMANDBALANCEINASEASONALLYADJUSTEDDEFICITANDROBUSTWORLDECONOMICGROWTHEXPECTEDIN2011AND2012,WEEXPECTOPECSPARECAPACITYWILLNEEDTORETURNTOTHEMARKETIN2011ASOPECSPARECAPACITYISDRAWNDOWN,WEEXPECTASTRUCTURALBULLMARKETTORETURNTOTHEOILMARKET,WITHSUBSTANTIALLYHIGHERPRICESCONSEQUENTLY,WEBELIEVETHATFORWARDPRICELEVELSOFFERGOODHEDGINGOPPORTUNITIESFORCONSUMERSINCALENDAR2011/2012,DESPITETHERECENTRALLYREFINERSREFININGMARGINSHAVERECENTLYSHOWEDCOUNTERSEASONALSTRENGTHAFTERAPERIODOFWEAKNESSFOLLOWINGTHESHARPMAYSELLOFFHOWEVER,WEEXPECTREFININGMARGINSTOREMAINUNDERPRESSUREOWINGTOTHELARGEINCREASEINREFININGCAPACITYINASIAASTHELIGHTHEAVYSPREADSHAVEALREADYWIDENED,WEEXPECTCOMPLEXOILREFINERSTORETURNFROMMAINTENANCEANDINCREASEPRODUCTION,WHICHWOULDPUTPRESSUREONSIMPLEREFININGMARGINSRELATIVETOWTIPRICESASARESULT,WEWOULD6VIEWANYRENEWEDRISEINLONGDATEDREFINERYMARGINSIN2011ASASELLINGOPPORTUNITYFORREFINERYHEDGERSFOR2011ANDBEYOND,WEBELIEVETHATCRUDEWILLBETHEBOTTLENECKINTHESYSTEM,RATHERTHANREFININGTHISWOULDSQUEEZEMARGINSFROMTHECRUDESIDETHROUGHBACKWARDATION,SUGGESTINGTHATREFINERSSHOULDALSOTHENLOOKFORPOTENTIALTIMESPREADHEDGESPRODUCERSWHILEWECONTINUETOEXPECTCRUDEOILPRICESTOMOVEHIGHERIN2011,LIMITINGTACTICALOPPORTUNITIES,THERISKREWARDTRADEOFFSFORPRODUCERRISKMANAGEMENTPROGRAMSWILLLIKELYIMPROVEAGAINASPRICESMOVEHIGHEROVERTHECOMINGMONTHSTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSLONGGASOILBUYAPRIL2011EUROPEANICEGASOILCURRENTVALUE97975/MTFIRSTSUGGESTEDAT95325/MT23450/MTGAININCLUDINGA20800/MTROLLGAINWECONTINUETOEXPECTIMPROVINGFUNDAMENTALSTOPROVIDEADDITIONALSUPPORTTOPRICESNATURALGASHEDGINGRECOMMENDATIONSCONSUMERSWEBELIEVETHATTHEOPPORTUNITIESFORCONSUMERHEDGINGINTHELONGENDOFTHENYMEXNATURALGASCURVE,PARTICULARLYINCALENDAR2015AND2016CONTRACTS,HAVEDIMINISHEDAFTERPRICEGAINSINRECENTWEEKSALTHOUGHTHERENEWEDNUCLEARSAFETYDEBATEMAYADDFURTHERUPSIDETOLONGERTERMNATURALGASDEMAND,WEVIEWTHERISKSTOLONGDATEDPRICESASMOREBALANCEDNOWCOMPAREDTOEARLIERTHISYEARINTHEUKMARKETWEBELIEVEOPPORTUNITIESFORCONSUMERHEDGINGAREEQUALLYLIMITEDATTHISPOINT,ASEUROPEANPRICESALSOHAVEPOSTEDLARGEGAINSRECENTLYASTHEYAREMOREDIRECTLYEXPOSEDTOTHERECENTEVENTSINTHEMENAREGIONANDJAPANPRODUCERSGIVENTHERECENTPRICEGAINS,WESEEHEDGINGOPPORTUNITIESOPENINGUPFORUSPRODUCERS,BOTHFORTHERESTOFTHISYEARANDESPECIALLYIN2012,WHERETHECALENDARSWAPISCURRENTLYAT512/MMBTU,COMPAREDTOOUR2012AVERAGEPRICEFORECASTOF425/MMBTUTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSWEHAVENONATURALGASTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSOPENATTHISTIME渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3BASEMETALSHEDGINGRECOMMENDATIONSCONSUMERSWEBELIEVETHATAPOTENTIALRETURNOFCHINESEBUYINGAND“COSTPUSH”SUPPORTSTEMMINGFROMTIGHTENINGHYDROCARBONMARKETSWILLLIKELYKEEPPRICESELEVATEDINTHENEARTERMHOWEVER,WEBELIEVETHATFURTHERUPSIDEISLIKELYLIMITEDFROMCURRENTLEVELSACROSSMETALSASARESULT,WESEELESSURGENCYFORCONSUMERBUYINGATTHESELEVELSNEVERTHELESS,WECONTINUETOSEECYCLICALTIGHTNESSDEVELOPINGINTHESEMARKETSOVERTHEMEDIUMTERM,ASWELLASFURTHERENERGYANDFXRELATEDMARGINALCOSTINFLATION,SUGGESTINGTHATFUNDAMENTALHEADWINDSINCOMINGQUARTERSCOULDOFFERSOMEOPPORTUNITIESFORLONGERDATEDPURCHASESPRODUCERSWEMAINTAINTHATTHECURRENTPRICEENVIRONMENTLOOKSATTRACTIVEFORPRODUCERHEDGINGACROSSMETALS,PARTICULARLYGIVENINCREASINGDOWNSIDERISKSFOLLOWINGRECENTMARKETDEVELOPMENTSWEDONOTBELIEVETHATNICKELORALUMINUMPRICESHAVESTRONGUPSIDEPOTENTIALOFFTODAYSLEVELSFURTHER,WENOWBELIEVETHATEXTREMECYCLICALTIGHTNESSORIGINALLYEXPECTEDTODEVELOPLATERTHISYEARINCOPPERMAYBEDEFERRED,REINFORCINGOURVIEWTHATSTILLNEARRECORDHIGHPRICESAREOFFERINGACOMPELLINGHEDGINGOPPORTUNITYTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSLONGCOPPERDECEMBER2011CURRENTVALUEAT9,708/MTFIRSTSUGGESTEDAT8,024/MT1,685/MTGAINWECONTINUETOBELIEVETHATSTRONGCOPPERDEMANDGROWTHWILLOUTPACESUPPLYGROWTH,GENERATINGACYCLICALLYTIGHTCOPPERMARKETHOWEVER,RECENTEVENTSPOSEDOWNSIDERISKSTODEMAND,POTENTIALLYDEFERRINGOURCRITICALLYLOWINVENTORYSCENARIOASARESULT,THERISKREWARDINTHISPOSITIONHASDIMINISHED,ANDWEWILLBEWATCHINGDEVELOPMENTSINDEMANDCLOSELYPRECIOUSMETALSHEDGINGRECOMMENDATIONSCONSUMERSWEEXPECTGOLDPRICESTOCONTINUETOCLIMBIN2011ASTHERESUMPTIONOFQUANTITATIVEEASINGSHOULDKEEPUSREALINTERESTRATESLOWHOWEVER,WITHTHECURRENTROUNDOFQESETTOENDINJUNE2011,ANDOURUSECONOMICSTEAMNOWFORECASTINGSTRONGUSECONOMICGROWTHIN2011AND2012,WEEXPECTUSREALINTERESTRATESTOBEGINTORISEINTO2012,LIKELYCAUSINGGOLDPRICESTOPEAKIN2012CONSEQUENTLY,WERECOMMENDNEARDATEDCONSUMERHEDGESINGOLD,BUTMORESOINPGMSWHERERECOVERINGGLOBALAUTOMOBILEDEMANDWILLLIKELYCONTINUETOPUTUPWARDPRESSUREONAUTOCATALYSTDEMANDANDTHEREFOREONPLATINUMANDPALLADIUMPRICESPRODUCERSWHILEWEEXPECTGOLDPRICESTOINCREASEIN2011,OURVIEWTHATDOWNSIDERISKSWILLLIKELYINCREASEHEADINGINTO2012SUGGESTSTHISISAGOODTIMEFORGOLDPRODUCERSTOBEGINSCALEDUPHEDGINGOFFORWARDPRODUCTION,PARTICULARLYFORCALENDAR2012ANDBEYONDTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSLONGPLATINUMBUYOCTOBER2011NYMEXPLATINUMCURRENTVALUEAT1,7522/TOZ5864/TOZGAININCLUDINGROLLSWECONTINUETOEXPECTTHATLOWREALRATESANDTHEECONOMICRECOVERYWILLLENDFURTHERSUPPORTTOPLATINUMPRICESTHISTRADEWASFIRSTINITIATEDINJULY2009SEEOURJULY15,2009,COMMODITYWATCHLONGGOLDBUYDECEMBER2011COMEXGOLDCURRENTVALUEOF1,4320/TOZ678/TOZGAINWEEXPECTGOLDPRICESTOCONTINUETOCLIMBIN2011ASTHERESUMPTIONOFQUANTITATIVEEASINGWILLKEEPUSREALINTERESTRATESLOW渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究4AGRICULTUREHEDGINGRECOMMENDATIONSCONSUMERSOUREXPECTATIONFORFURTHERSOYBEANPRICEUPSIDEANDTHEBACKWARDATEDFUTURESCURVEOFFEROPPORTUNITIESFORCONSUMERSTOLAYERINUPSIDEPROTECTIONFORCORNANDCOTTON,WERECOMMENDCONSUMERSTAKEADVANTAGEOFPOTENTIALLYLOWERPRICESINTHECOMINGMONTHS,ASSUMINGNORMALPLANTINGWEATHERINTHEUS,TOLAYERINASYMMETRICUPSIDEHEDGESFORDEC11MATURITIESANDBEYONDWEBELIEVETHATWHILEAVERAGEWEATHERCONDITIONSWILLBRINGBOTHCROPPRICESLOWER,ANYWEATHERDISAPPOINTMENTWILLLIKELYSENDPRICESSHARPLYHIGHERPRODUCERSOUREXPECTATIONFORLOWERPRICESOVERTHEMEDIUMTERMPOINTSTOOPPORTUNITIESFORPRODUCERSTOTAKEADVANTAGEOFTHECURRENTHIGHERLEVELSANDIMPLEMENTLONGDATEDHEDGEPROGRAMSTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSLONGSOYBEANSBUYNOVEMBER2011CBOTSOYBEANSCURRENTVALUEOF1350/BU190/BUGAINWERECOMMENDHOLDINGLONGNOV11SOYBEANPOSITIONSASWESEESOYBEANSASTHECROPMOSTLIKELYTOREMAININADEFICITIN2011/12ONSTRONGDEMANDANDACREAGELOSSTOCORNANDCOTTONBASKETTRADINGRECOMMENDATION“BACKTOTHEUSSR”CCCPLONGABASKETOFCRUDEOIL,COPPER,COTTON/SOYBEANSANDPLATINUM,INDEXEDAT100CURRENTVALUEAT1198198GAINAFTERADECADEOFHIGHCOMMODITYPRICES,THEKEYMARKETSTHATREMAINSTRUCTURALLYSUPPLYCONSTRAINED,INOURVIEW,ARECRUDEOIL,COPPER,COTTON/SOYBEANSANDPLATINUMOWINGTOTHENARROWGEOGRAPHICDISTRIBUTIONOFSUPPLYINTHESEMARKETS,THEYCONTINUETOFACESIGNIFICANTPOLITICALANDGEOLOGICALCONSTRAINTSONTHEFREEFLOWOFCAPITAL,LABORANDTECHNOLOGY,WHICHINTURNCONSTRAINSSUPPLYGROWTHREGARDLESSOFPRICEOREXPECTEDRETURNITISNOCOINCIDENCETHATTHESESUPPLYCONSTRAINEDMARKETSAREALSOTHESAMECOMMODITYMARKETSTHATCHINAISEXTREMELYSHORT,ASITSABILITYTOINVESTINCAPACITYEXPANSIONISSEVERELYRESTRICTEDRELATIVETOOTHERCOMMODITYMARKETS,WHICHFURTHERUNDERSCORESTHESTRUCTURALNATUREOFTHESECONSTRAINTSACCORDINGLY,WEBELIEVETHATTHESECOMMODITIESAREBESTPOSITIONEDTOCAPTURETHETHEMEOFRESOURCEREALIGNMENT,WHICHISTHENEEDTOREDIRECTRESOURCESTHATAREINLIMITEDSUPPLYAWAYFROMTHEDEVELOPEDMARKETSANDTOWARDSTHEEMERGINGMARKETSWEBELIEVETHISREDIRECTIONORRATIONINGOFLIMITEDSUPPLIESCANONLYCOMEABOUTTHROUGHHIGHERPRICESANDWITHUSGROWTHLIKELYTOBEONMORESOLIDFOOTING,THISDYNAMICWILLLIKELYBECOMEMOREPRONOUNCEDIN2011WHENUSDEMANDISEXPECTEDTORECOVERTOWARDPRECRISISLEVELSANDBUMPUPAGAINSTACHINATHATISNOWCONSUMING23MOREOIL,63MORECOPPER,18MORECOTTONANDSOYBEANSAND29MOREPLATINUMTHANITDIDIN2007WERECOMMENDIMPLEMENTINGTHISTRADEWITHABASKETCOMPRISEDOFDEC11WTIWEIGHT40,DEC11LMECOPPER20,NOV11CBOTSOYBEANS10,DEC11NYBCOTTON10ANDASPGSCITYPEROLLINGFRONTMONTHPLATINUMINDEX20WEINITIATEDTHISRECOMMENDATIONONDECEMBER1,2010SEEGLOBALVIEWPOINTISSUENO10/25WITHA12MONTHEXPECTEDRETURNOF28渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究5CURRENTTRADINGRECOMMENDATIONSSOURCEGOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCHLONGEUROPEANGASOILBUYAPRIL2011EUROPEANICEGASOILNOVEMBER10,2010ENERGYWEEKLY95325/MT97975/MT23450/MTROLLEDONMARCH10,2011FROMABUYMARCH2011EUROPEANICEGASOILFORA20800/MTGAINLONGCCCPBASKETBUYDEC11WTIWEIGHT40,DEC11LMECOPPER20,NOV11CBOTSOYBEANS10,DEC11NYBCOTTON10,SPGSCIPLATINUMINDEX20DECEMBER1,2010GLOBALVIEWPOINT10001198198LONGSOYBEANSBUYNOVEMBER2011CBOTSOYBEANNOVEMBER18,2010AGRICULTUREUPDATE1160/BU1350/BU190/BULONGGOLDBUYDECEMBER2011COMEXGOLDOCTOBER11,2010PRECIOUSMETALS1,3642/TOZ1,4320/TOZ678/TOZLONGCOPPERBUYDECEMBER2011COPPEROCTOBER4,2010METALSWATCH8,024/MT9,708/MT1,685/MTLONGPLATINUMLONGOCTOBER2011NYMEXPLATINUMJULY15,2009COMMODITYWATCH1,7918/TOZ1,7522/TOZ5864/TOZASOFCLOSEONMARCH25,2011INCLUSIVEOFALLPREVIOUSROLLINGPROFITS/LOSSESCURRENTPROFIT/LOSS1ROLLEDONFEBRUARY18,2011FROMALONGJANUARY2011NYMEXPLATINUMFORA6260/TOZGAINCURRENTTRADESFIRSTRECOMMENDEDINITIALVALUECURRENTVALUE渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究6PRICEACTIONS,VOLATILITIESANDFORECASTSUNITS25MARCHANGEIMPLIED2CHANGEREALIZED2CHANGE3Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q103M6M12MENERGY6118369816044602760546764INDUSTRIALMETALS4611361051600113PRECIOUSMETALS626648AGRICULTURE296606106175391316496021MONTHLYCHANGEISDIFFERENCEOFCLOSEONLASTBUSINESSDAYANDCLOSEAMONTHAGO2MONTHLYVOLATILITYCHANGEISDIFFERENCEOFAVERAGEVOLATILITYOVERTHEPASTMONTHANDTHATOFTHEPRIORMONTH3MOATMIMPLIEDVOLATILITY,1MOREALIZEDVOLATILITY3PRICEFORECASTSREFERTOPROMPTCONTRACTPRICEFORECASTSIN3,6,AND12MONTHSTIME4BASEDONLMETHREEMONTHPRICES578697819797N/A25757537CMELEANHOGCENT/LB925N/A10051150CMELIVECATTLECENT/LB1186N/A105095071295083690593795011501200N/A22277854236244155202897630134206NYBOTSUGARCENT/LB27940228562700NYBOTCOCOA/MT3242N/A200200290300325930702987286324002400N/A336602867139134140174N/A34264125NYBOTCOFFEECENT/LB269N/A128150NYBOTCOTTONCENT/LB204N/A17517520520071768187125125N/A4787560386370355422421421128327CBOTCORNCENT/BU69041812451500CBOTSOYBEANCENT/BU1358289600580562620100295595710351575157521429314104952249646765305544237485CBOTWHEATCENT/BU733397264247LONDONSILVER/TROYOZ377363750750707775176169183190261282325474146147109911101197122801714023962LONDONGOLD/TROYOZ142616123332400LMEZINC/MT237732515651690137014802241230720522043240031001583421717801759320163224312127105938516517576LMENICKEL/MT2705034686148800LMECOPPER/MT96852871950019500236191950066777274704272788800110000722664158562037219921222110015198011836LMEALUMINUM/MT264123451743890UKNBPNATGASP/TH620627422002200236522003183333537484268405044701363441102348493499435423115407111344NYMEXNATGAS/MMBTU440341231286USGCHEATINGOIL/GAL30133619420120720128929862523216173375450398400VOLATILITIESANDMONTHLYCHANGES2PRICESANDMONTHLYCHANGES1WTICRUDEOIL/BBLPRICEFORECASTS310540356700278HISTORICALPRICES682476131091030076218524995010050105001050078887805773779417696874510650BRENTCRUDEOIL/BBL115593719572895368877554551418109186RBOBGASOLINE/GAL304346262278217200194211222275SOURCEGOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCHSPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEXANDSTRATEGIESTOTALRETURNANDFORECASTS11YTDRETURNSTHROUGHFEBRUARY28,2011SOURCESTANDARDPOORS,GOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCH200920102011YTD12MOFORECASTSPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEX100021612289143ENERGY67223859103150INDUSTRIALMETALS8282716545210PRECIOUSMETALS3025234506130AGRICULTURE1743633789110LIVESTOCK421131852850渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究7UNFOLDINGEVENTSRESHAPETHERISKPROFILEACROSSCOMMODITIESUNFOLDINGEVENTSHAVEDRAMATICALLYRESHAPEDTHERISKPROFILEACROSSCOMMODITIES,INCREASINGTHERISKOFPULLINGFORWARDCYCLICALLYTIGHTOILMARKETSANDPUSHINGOUTCYCLICALLYTIGHTINDUSTRIALMETALSMARKETS,WHILEGENERATINGFURTHERUPSIDERISKTOGOLDANDAGRICULTUREWEBELIEVETHATTHESESHIFTSLEAVERISKTOOUR14312MONTHRETURNFORECASTFORTHESPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEXSUBSTANTIALLYSKEWEDTOTHEUPSIDEHOWEVER,WENOTETHATTRADINGVOLUMESACROSSKEYCOMMODITIESHAVEDECLINEDSHARPLYINTHERECENTPERIODASTHEMARKETISWAITINGANDWATCHINGFORGOVERNMENTRESPONSESTORECENTEVENTS,FURTHERHEIGHTENINGMARKETUNCERTAINTYSEEEXHIBIT1EXHIBIT1VOLUMESOFWTICRUDEOILFUTURESCONTRACTSTRADEDDROPPEDTOTHELOWESTPOINTOFTHEYEARLASTWEEK,AFTERANEVENTFULNUMBEROFMONTHSNYMEXWTICONTRACTVOLUME,000CONTRACTSSOURCENYMEXANDGOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCHINPARTICULAR,ONGOINGPHYSICALDISRUPTIONSTOLIBYANOILSUPPLYANDINCREASEDJAPANESEHYDROCARBONDEMANDTOCOMPENSATEFORNUCLEAROUTAGESHAVEBEGUNTOFURTHERTIGHTENGLOBALOILBALANCES,WHICHHAVEALREADYPUSHEDINVENTORIESDOWNTOAVERAGELEVELSWITHOPECSPARECAPACITYDIMINISHINGTOHELPMAKEUPFORTHELIBYANSHORTFALLANDMILITARYACTIONACCELERATINGINTHEREGION,THERISKOFSUBSTANTIALLYTIGHTEROILFUNDAMENTALSANDSIGNIFICANTLYHIGHERPRICESINCOMINGMONTHSHASRISEN,ANDRISKSTOOURCURRENTOILPRICEFORECASTSTHATASSUMENOFURTHERCONTAGIONOFUNRESTINMAJOROILPRODUCINGSTATESHAVEBECOMEINCREASINGLYSKEWEDTOTHEUPSIDESIMILARLY,THEDECLINEINREALRATESFOLLOWINGTHEMENAANDJAPANEVENTSHASAGAININCREASEDUPSIDERISKTOGOLDPRICES,LEADINGUSTOREITERATEOURCONSTRUCTIVEGOLDPRICEVIEWSANDSHIFTINGRISKSTOTHESEVIEWSALSOTOTHEUPSIDETHISISESPECIALLYTHECASEASDEMANDFORPHYSICALGOLDFROMGOLDETFSANDGOVERNMENTCENTRALBANKSCONTINUESTORISEINCONTRAST,THESUPPLYSHOCKNATUREOFOILRISKSISBROADLYTRANSLATINGINTONEGATIVEDEMANDSHOCKRISKSFORINDUSTRIALMETALSSPECIFICALLY,WHILEGLOBALECONOMICGROWTHISSTILLEXPECTEDTOBEROBUST,RISINGENERGYPRICESHAVETHEPOTENTIALTOSLOWTHISGROWTHAND/ORPROMPTMONETARYTIGHTENING,WORSENINGTHEMACROBACKDROPFORMETALSDEMANDINADDITION,WHILETHENETIMPACTOFJAPANESEDISRUPTIONSISLIKELYTOTIGHTENHYDROCARBONBALANCES,ITWILLLIKELYSOFTENMETALSBALANCESGIVENTHEHITTOJAPANESEMANUFACTURINGCAPACITYANDTHEBROADERNEGATIVEIMPACTONGLOBALINDUSTRY0200400600800100012001400160021DEC1005JAN1120JAN1104FEB1119FEB1106MAR1121MAR11SECRETARYOFSTATEHILLARYCLINTONCALLSFORANENDTOVIOLENCEAGAINSTLIBYANCIVILIANS,MUAMMARMUHAMMADALQADDAFISPEAKSONTVFORTHEFIRSTTIMEPROTESTORSDECLARELIBERATIONOFBENGHAZIFRIDAYOFANGERINEGYPTDAYOFREVOLTTENSOFTHOUSANDSPROTESTINCAIROMUHAMMADHOSNISAYYIDMUBARAKRESIGNSZINEELABIDINEBENALIFLEESTHECOUNTRYMOHAMEDBOUAZIZI,THEMANWHOSETHIMSELFONFIREWHICHTRIGGEREDTHEPROTESTSINTUNISIA,DIESINHOSPITALMUAMMARMUHAMMADALQADDAFILAUNCHESOFFENSIVEINTOLIBYASEASTUNPASSESRESOLUTION1973JAPANHITBYEARTHQUAKECOALITIONFORCESBEGINAIRSTRIKES渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究8STEMMINGFROMJAPANSIMPORTANCEASAGLOBALPARTSSUPPLIERASARESULT,WHILEWEEXPECTINDUSTRIALMETALSPRICESTOREMAINELEVATEDATHISTORICALLYHIGHLEVELS,RISKSHAVEFUNDAMENTALLYSHIFTEDTOTHEDOWNSIDEANDCYCLICAL“BREAKOUTS”THATWEHAVEBEENEXPECTINGFORCOPPERANDZINCINPARTICULARLATERTHISYEARMAYBEPUSHEDOUTTHISISESPECIALLYTHECASEASINVENTORIESARETRACKINGSOMEWHATHIGHERTHANWEANTICIPATEDASCHINESECONSUMERSCONTINUETOOPERATEHANDTOMOUTHINRESPONSETOHIGHPRICESANDTIGHTCREDITALTHOUGHLESSDIRECTLYEXPOSEDTOMENAANDJAPAN,WEALSOMAINTAINTHATTHETIGHTINVENTORYSITUATIONACROSSTHEMAJORGRAINSLEAVESTHESEMARKETSVULNERABLETOUPSIDESPIKESDURINGTHEUPCOMINGNORTHERNHEMISPHEREPLANTINGANDGROWINGSEASONS,WITHSOYBEANSMOSTLIKELYTOSEEFURTHERUPSIDEINTHENEARTERM,BUTCORNALSOPARTICULARLYSUSCEPTIBLETOUPSIDESPIKESONNET,WHILEOURMAINLINEVIEWSPOINTTOMODESTLYLOWEROILPRICES,LOWERAGRICULTURALPRICESWITHTHEEXCEPTIONOFSOYBEANS,ANDSUBSTANTIALLYHIGHERPRICESFORMETALS,THERISKSKEWISPOINTINGSHARPLYINTHEOPPOSITEDIRECTIONSTHISISIMPORTANTFORINDEXINVESTMENTSASENERGYANDAGRICULTURETYPICALLYCOMPRISETHELARGESTWEIGHTSASARESULT,WHILEWECONTINUETOFORECASTA14312MONTHGAININTHESPGSCIENHANCEDCOMMODITYINDEX,WEBELIEVETHATRISKSTOTHISFORECASTARESUBSTANTIALLYSKEWEDTOTHEUPSIDE渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2011年3月29日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究9ENERGY159YTDTHROUGHMARCH25,2011PETROLEUM168YTDTHROUGHMARCH25,2011WHILETHEONGOINGECONOMICRECOVERYHASNOWDRAWNOECDTOTALPETROLEUMINVENTORIESBACKTOFIVEYEARAVERAGELEVELSSEEEXHIBIT2,THEOILMARKETREMAINSJUSTIFIABLYFOCUSEDONTHERISKSTOTHEFORWARDSUPPLYDEMANDBALANCEPOSEDBYTHEDRAMATICEVENTSUNFOLDINGACROSSTHEGLOBE,NAMELY,THERISKSTOOILSUPPLYFROMTHEONGOINGPOLITICALUNRESTINMENAANDTHEIMPACTONOILDEMANDFROMTHEDAMAGEDNUCLEARREACTORSINJAPANINSUCHANENVIRONMENT,ITISNOTSURPRISINGTHATNETSPECULATIVELONGPOSITIONSINWTICRUDEOILREACHEDANEWRECORDHIGHOF391MILLIONBARRELSINCOMPARISON,WHENWTICRUDEOILPRICESPEAKEDATOVER145/BBLINJULY2008,THENETSPECULATIVELONGPOSITIONINTHELIGHTSWEETCRUDEOILCONTRACTFUTURESANDOPTIONSWASLESSTHAN100MILLIONBARRELSWEESTIMATETHATEACHMILLIONBARRELSOFNETSPECULATIVELENGTHTENDSTOADD810CENTSTOTHEPRICEOFABARRELOFCRUDEOILGIVENTHATNETSPECULATIVELENGTHHASBEENABOUT100MILLIONBARRELSHIGHERSINCETHEPOLITICALPROTESTSSPREADFROMTUNISIAANDEGYPTTOLIBYASEEEXHIBIT3,THISSUGGESTSTHATTHEOILMARKETHASBEENPRICINGA10/BBLRISKPREMIUMINTOTHEPRICEOFCRUDEOILDUETOCONCERNSOVERPOTENTIALPOLITICALCONTAGIONTOOTHEROILPRODUCINGSTATESINTHEMENAREGIONTHISISCONSISTENTWITHTHEFACTTHATBRENTCRUDEOILHASBEENTRADINGNEAR115/BBLINTHERECENTPERIOD,10/BBLABOVEOUR3MONTHTARGETWITHREPORTSOFPROTESTSINSYRIAANDYEMEN,HOSTILITIESATTHEGAZA/ISRAELBORDER,ANDSAUDITROOPSINBAHRAIN,THERISKOFPOLITICALCONTAGIONREMAINSEXHIBIT2OECDTOTALPETROLEUMINVENTORIESHAVEDRAWNBACKTOFIVEYEARAVERAGELEVELSMILLIONBARRELSEXHIBIT3ANDTHEMARKETISUNDERSTANDABLYFOCUSEDONTHERISKSTOTHEFORWARDSUPPLYDEMANDBALANCE/BBLLEFTAXISMILLIONBARRELSRIGHTAXISSOURCEIEAANDGOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCHSOURCENYMEX,CFTC,ANDGOLDMANSACHSGLOBALECSRESEARCHFURTHER,WEEXPECTTHATTHEINCREASEDDEMANDFOROILDUETOTHELOSSOFNUCLEARGENERATIONCAPACITYINJAPANWILLFAROUTWEIGHTHEDEMANDLOS