水文预报课程设计计算说明书

1、大连海洋大学 海洋与土木工程学院水文预报课程设计专业班级：水文与水资源工程专业姓 名：苗*学 号：14040*指导教师：黄*目录1. 方案采用的技术途径21.1蒸散发方案21.2产流方案21.3水源划分21.4汇流方案21.5预报模式32. 流域概况33. 基本资料44. 流域产流方案制作步骤44.1流域蒸发量的推求44.2降雨径流经验关系点的计算54.3产流方案调试194.4产流方案误差评定195. 水源划分216. 流域汇流方案制作步骤216.1制作地下径流汇流方案216.2制作直接径流汇流方案247. 流域预报方案校核及误差评定307.1校核预报307.2次洪预报误差评定308. 心得体

2、会：422题目:制作某水库干流入库站的流域预报模型方案1. 方案采用的技术途径1.1蒸散发方案通过对大量的实测资料的检验分析，发现流域蒸发能力Ep与水面蒸发E0间可粗略概化为线性关系，即Ep=KC* E0。其中Kc为蒸发折算系数。同时流域的蒸发量采取三层蒸发的计算模式，将流域土壤分为上层、下层和深层。相关参数有：1 三层土壤含水量 WU，WL和WD2 三层土壤含水容量WUM，WLM和WDM3 蒸发扩散系数 C1.2产流方案根据流域的自然地理情况和气候条件,以及洪水流量过程线的分析,可知流域产流规律符合湿润地区的蓄满产流特征。采用蓄满产流的降雨径流相关图形式表达方案。用三层蒸发模型计算蒸发。计算

3、时段为3小时。蓄满产流方案可由流域蓄水容量曲线表达，曲线共有两个参数：1 域蓄水容量WM；2 流域蓄水容量曲线指数b。 根据 “水文预报”知识，流域蓄水容量曲线的参数确定后，可将流域蓄水容量曲线转化为蓄满产流的降雨径流相关图。因此，蓄满产流的产流方案也可用蓄满产流的降雨径流相关图表达。1.3水源划分采用稳定下渗率Fc作两水源划分。1.4汇流方案分析经验单位线作直接径流汇流方案。采用线性水库演算作地下径流汇流方案。1.5预报模式流域平均降水量预报模式见图1。蒸发模型： 产流方案水源划分：地面径流汇流计算(经验单位线汇流)地下径流汇流计算(线性水库汇流) 本次降雨的流域出口断面流量图1 预报模式示

4、意图2. 流域概况某水库入库站流域控制面积为1067km2，干流河的长度约为93km。流域为低山丘陵区，上游部分覆盖有部分的原始森林；中游部分为山间盆地，适宜农作物生长，流域植被率高。地下水出流区常有泉水出露、涌水量较大者可达每秒数升左右。流域地区的气候为温暖湿润，年降雨量为1700-1800mm之间。可判断流域地区为蓄满产流模型的适用地。图2 预报流域水系示意图3. 基本资料水库流域图示意图。研究流域两场洪水实测资料，进行预报检测。67701号洪水流量过程及时段雨量摘录资料,表21。研究流域的14场洪水退水资料,表22。研究流域33场实测降雨径流资料,表23。根据产流模型绘制降雨径流关系曲线

5、。根据给出的时段径流量，推算单位线。稳定渗透系数fc=0.8。研究流域2场典型洪水径流过程，表26。4. 流域产流方案制作步骤4.1流域蒸发量的推求流域蒸散发量计算是产流计算的重要内容，特别是对于长时期的产流量估计，蒸发常是决定性因素。蒸散发决定了无雨期土壤含水量的消耗量，也影响降雨期的产流量。4.1.1 蒸发能力的确定流域蒸发能力Ep可以通过水面蒸发E0乘上蒸发折算系数Kc求得。4.1.2 蒸发量的推求流域时段蒸发量的推求采取三层蒸发计算模式，公式如下和本文图1中均有列出。WU+P-R-EUWUM，1=WU+P-R-EU-WUM，01+WL-ELWLM，2=1+WL-EL-WLM，02+WD

6、-EDWDM，3=2+WD-ED-WDM，010，WU=WUM，P+WU-EU-R20，WL=WLM，1+WL-EL30，WD=WDM，2+WD-ED计算模式需要的相应参数取值如下表所示：表格 1 初始给定计算参数Kc参数预报检测洪水WMWUMWLMBC1.012020600.430.1667701+1初始蓄水系数WWUWLWD450540注：WM=WUM+WLM+WDM4.2降雨径流经验关系点的计算在以下的计算过程中，涉及到降雨时间的步骤，为了计算简洁，采用的都是降雨时段。4.2.1退水曲线制作根据收集的14场退水资料制作退水曲线。据表22的14场退水资料点绘Qtt退水线、观察流域退水规律。

7、图3 14场洪水退水曲线1 据表3的退水资料点绘QtQt+1退水线图、在图上定出一条标准QtQt+1地下水退根据表22的退水资料点绘QtQt+1退水线图、在图上定出一条标准QtQt+1地下水退水线（QtQt+1外包线）；QtQt+1退水线计算过程见表27。图4 QtQt+1退水线图2 由标准QtQt+1地下水退水线分析求解地下径流消退系数Cg（本流域0.98 Cg 0.99 ）；51表2 计算地下径流消退系数Cg 3 根据表22的退水资料点绘QtQt+1退水线图、在图上定出一条QtQt+1流域平均退水线。表3 流域平均退水曲线表4 Qt初始设置为200时流域平均退水曲线Qt流域平均退水曲线Qt

8、Qt+10200169.65057873169.6505787144.73929146144.7392914124.29171099124.2917109107.508011912107.508011993.731685041593.7316850482.423857051882.4238570573.142212142173.1422121465.52369052465.523690559.270286882759.2702868854.137393813054.1373938149.924233613349.9242336146.466004773646.4660047743.627435

9、583943.6274355841.297492894241.2974928939.385038894539.3850388937.815266274837.8152662736.526771955136.5267719535.469155345435.4691553434.601046825734.6010468233.888489556033.8884895533.30361122表5 Qt地下水退水曲线12019.3077834118.800570512318.800570518.3066820212618.3066820217.8257679212917.8257679217.3574

10、873613217.3574873616.9015084813516.9015084816.457508113816.457508116.0251715514116.0251715515.6041924214415.6041924215.1942723714715.1942723714.7951208515014.7951208514.4064549915314.4064549914.0279993415614.0279993413.6594856615913.6594856613.3006527916213.3006527912.9512464116512.9512464112.611018

11、8916812.6110188912.279729117112.279729111.9571422517411.9571422511.6430297117711.6430297111.3371688718011.3371688711.0393429518311.0393429510.7493408818610.7493408810.4669571318910.4669571310.1919915519210.191991559.9242492911959.9242492919.6635405821989.6635405829.4096806562019.4096806569.162489597

12、2049.1624895978.9217922142078.9217922148.6874179192108.6874179198.4592006062138.4592006068.2369785312168.2369785318.02059422198.02059427.8098942572227.8098942577.6047293742257.6047293747.4049541452287.4049541457.2104269842317.2104269847.0210100262347.0210100266.8365690272376.8365690276.6569732682406

13、.6569732686.4820954652436.4820954656.311811679Qt地下水退水曲线QtQt+105654.52888743354.5288874353.09642079653.0964207951.70158486951.7015848650.343391091250.3433910949.020876881549.0208768847.733104951847.7331049546.479162622146.4791626245.258161182445.2581611844.069235292744.0692352942.911542333042.9115423

14、341.784261813341.7842618140.686594793640.6865947939.617763353939.6177633538.577009964238.5770099637.563597034537.5635970336.576806324836.5768063235.615938475135.6159384734.680312495434.6803124933.769265285733.7692652832.882151166032.8821511632.018341426332.0183414231.177223836631.1772238330.35820236

15、930.358202329.560696357229.5606963528.784140797528.7841407928.027985247828.0279852427.29169388127.291693826.574744638426.5747446325.876629628725.8766296225.196854019025.1968540124.5349369324.53493623.89040659623.890406523.26280879923.262808722.651697810222.651697822.0566407210522.0566407221.47721571

16、0821.477215720.913012111120.913012120.3636300511420.3636300519.828680211719.82868023482.5530937832.4860243493512.4860243492.420716823542.420716822.3571249113572.3571249112.2952035533602.2952035532.2349088613632.2349088612.1761981033662.1761981032.1190296683692.1190296682.0633630413722.0633630412.009

17、1587683752.0091587681.9563784343781.9563784341.9049846333811.9049846331.854940943841.854940941.8062118883871.8062118881.7587629423901.7587629421.7125604743931.7125604741.6675717383961.6675717381.623764853991.623764851.5811087634021.5811087631.5395732464051.5395732461.4991288624081.4991288621.4597469

18、464111.4597469461.4213995884141.4213995881.384059614171.384059611.3477005484201.3477005481.3122966344231.3122966341.2778227764261.2778227761.2442545414291.2442545411.211568144321.211568141.1797404064351.1797404061.1487487834381.1487487831.11857130519.307783412466.3118116796.1460012262496.1460012265.

19、9845465912525.9845465915.8273333482555.8273333485.6742500762585.6742500765.5251882812615.5251882815.380042322645.380042325.2387093242675.2387093245.1010891272705.1010891274.9670841942734.9670841944.8365995532764.8365995534.7095427262794.7095427264.5858236642824.5858236644.4653546872854.4653546874.34

20、80504132884.3480504134.2338277072914.2338277074.1226056162944.1226056164.0143053152974.0143053153.9088500483003.9088500483.8061650773033.8061650773.7061776273063.7061776273.6088168343093.6088168343.5140136953123.5140136953.4217010233153.4217010233.3318133923183.3318133923.2442870973213.2442870973.15

21、90601073243.1590601073.0760720183273.0760720182.9952640153302.9952640152.9165788283332.9165788282.839960693362.839960692.76535533392.76535532.6927097843422.6927097842.6219726563452.6219726562.553093783图5 平均退水曲线图6 退水径流深4.2.2次洪量划分计算平割法计算本场洪水的R实。 1 根据表21的次洪流量资料点绘67701号洪水流量过程线。2 洪水流量过程线上分割后期洪水径流（利用流域平均退

22、水关系线分割）。图7 67701号洪水流量过程线及径流分割计算相应次洪水的径流总量R实。利用平割法计算径流深R0的计算式为：R0=i=1n-13.6Qit/A利用蓄泄关系法计算径流深R0的计算式为：R0=3.6ti=2n-1Qi+(Q1+Qn)/A+Re末-Re初直接径流终止点的时距N的公式：N=0.84F0.2F=1067km2直接径流终止点可用流域地下水退水曲线来确定：使退水曲线与流量过程线退水尾部重合，而流量过程与退水曲线的分叉点即视为直接径流终止点（如图7所示），计算值见表6。表6 计算N值时段流量3133738N81.30615计算直接径流终止点在实际工作中也采用经验方法，即通过对实

23、测资料的分析后，确定洪峰时间到直接径流终止点的时距N，并认为同一流域的N值为常数（见表7）。表7 从洪峰流量到退水过程t日期时间流量07101018900311700314450317300320350323270322063517038146311126314116317102320953238032703565.753861.531157.253145331750.7532048.532346.2532443542.753841.531140.0531439317382037822336235534833113214311730.752030.52330.25230根据斜线分割法计算出的N

24、值为81.30615，根据经验方法计算出来的N值为82，存在误差较小，在允许范围内，可进行下一步计算。图8 Q0Re关系示意图表8tQ0Re007850.18275538978100.72643568645151.25361469333201.79485180624252.30094365321302.84218076618353.39044693315403.91762593912454.39560157212504.92980963212555.520250119表9 计算径流深R0QRe130.92324383.6097蓄泄关系法计算R074.96953404平割法计算R072.0654

25、5平割法计算地表径流63.28982地下径流11.679714.2.3降雨产流量计算根据给定的初始参数（表21），点绘制作流域蓄水容量曲线。计算公式为：=1-（1-WMWMM)bWM=WMM1+ba=WMM1-(1-WWM)1/(1+b)W=WM1-(1-aWMM)b+1根据流域蓄满产流的各个公式和已给定的初始参数，构建初始降雨产流量的计算模型,并填写表24(降雨径流关系节点表),结合流域蓄水容量曲线点绘降雨径流关系示意图。表10 三层蒸发模型表11 包气带蓄水容量曲线WM、0050.012635100.025488150.038569200.051891250.065466300.07930

26、7350.09343400.107851450.122587500.137659550.153089600.1689650.185121700.201781750.218916800.236564850.25477900.273586950.2930711000.3132951050.334341110图9 包气带容量曲线0.3563091150.3793191200.4035191250.4290951300.456291350.4854181400.5169161450.5514031500.5898221550.6337281600.686041650.7536451700.866054

27、表12降雨径流关节点W020406080100120A020.5412942.3660725365.916692.00862122.582171.6PERRRRRRR0000.6110097850.9823751.4557742.147975550.0314980.300641.2973380572.049663.0123064.43213110100.1267110.6699582.0607700093.2043594.6736656.86219515150.2867561.1093332.9032124764.4491886.4444119.45009120200.5128041.6202

28、223.8267081365.7871138.32969212.2108925250.8060882.2041664.8334521057.22138110.3353915.1644930301.1679072.8628065.9258114968.75557412.4682918.3387435351.5996293.5978847.10634866110.3936714.7363721.7767640402.1027024.4112628.37784901912.1401117.1491425.5591845452.6786615.304939.74335474113.999919.718

29、253050503.3291326.28102711.2062059415.9787522.458323555554.0558477.34185512.7700916518.0832425.388584060604.8606558.489914.4391138320.3210428.535734565655.7455319.72786516.217868922.701331.940495070706.71259711.0586918.1115536125.2351435.676715575757.76413512.4856120.1261052427.93642406080808.902612

30、14.0121722.2683919630.823194565858510.130715.6423224.5464789633.920145070909011.4513317.3804626.9700137537.2645575959512.8676819.2315529.5508093740.91815608010010014.3832721.2012532.303778145.0444658510510516.00223.2960535.2485426850709011011017.7282225.5235538.4125256255759511511519.5668227.8927741

31、.83790969608010012012021.5233930.4146345.60264924658510512512523.604333.1027850709011013013025.8170335.9748855759511513513528.1704239.05497608010012014014030.6751542.37859658510512514514533.3445446.00606709011013015015036.195750.08303759511513515515539.25183558010012014016016042.54681608510512514516

32、516546.13702659011013015017017050.14987709511513515517517555751001201401601801806080105125145165185图10 降雨径流关系示意图W=0 20 40 60 80 100 1204.3产流方案调试应用实测数据资料率定模型参数Kc和 B共需要三组实测数据来率定模型的两个参数。其一为表1中指定的67701号洪水实测数据，同时根据表23中给出的实测降雨产流数据，各组任选其2，共三组。其中67701号洪水的实测净流总量R实已经在4.2.2步骤中求取完成。用初始降雨径流计算模型计算总径流量与实测径流量对比，如果差

33、异较大，则相应调整参数Kc和 B的值。 参数Kc的优选范围:0.90-1.30；参数B的优选范围:0.4-0.44在三层蒸发模型中，通过调整Kc取值为1，B的值为0.43。4.4产流方案误差评定优选原则：计算的2年资料的Kc和B值应相同并使得2年内每年的年径流相对误差尽可能不超过20。绝对误差： 相对误差：表13 产流方案误差评定编号洪号PEW0R实R算检验164529115.86967.464.8-2.63.86%合格26460229.3117.124.526.41.97.76%合格36462295.7102.38878-1011.36%合格46551025.496.511.81.9-9.9

34、83.90%不合格56552555.5100.136.335.6-0.71.93%合格66562617.511512.312.50.21.63%合格76640835.29717.412.2-5.229.89%不合格86762325.960.37.30-7.3100.00%不合格97040161.7107.749.149.40.30.61%合格107041723.910513.28.9-4.332.58%不合格117041815.510511.90.5-11.495.80%不合格127042050.5109.542.340-2.35.44%合格137050638.9112.434.831.3-3

35、.510.06%合格147052444.9118.144.743-1.73.80%合格157080738.762.810.60-10.6100.00%不合格167151174.160.930.115-15.150.17%不合格177191243.192.118.715.2-3.518.72%合格187242935110.225.225.200.00%合格197250766.2109.95756.1-0.91.58%合格207281987.274.242.441.4-12.36%合格2172101216.1845.30-5.3100.00%不合格2272110975.671.428.827-1.

36、86.25%合格237352013.611510.78.6-2.119.63%合格247461460.19029.530.10.62.03%合格257470438.2113.130.931.30.41.29%合格267491340.585.217.65.7-11.967.61%不合格277550425.911221.317.9-3.415.96%合格287560519.9108.210.38.1-2.221.36%不合格297560774.511166.165.5-0.60.91%合格307580850.5100.831.731.3-0.41.26%合格3175100445.3101.327.

37、326.6-0.72.56%合格3275100669.3115.565.664.8-0.81.22%合格337652715.599.510.10-10.1100.00%不合格评定结果：合格率为66.7% 不合格率为33.3%5. 水源划分本方案采用稳定下渗率fc=0.8作两水源划分计算,供相应洪号的直接径流汇流计算使用。根据67701号洪水原始资料进行计算：表14 调整FC 计算RGFcRG时段tPER产流面积R/PE0.80.780.80.78136.631.0795922620.1628344290.3908030.3810325630.3908030.3810332350.0413.14

38、6178880.2627134070.6305120.6147493720.6305120.6147493351.3226.241707060.51133491.2272041.1965236661.2272041.1965244213.6811.953849980.8738194431.3981111.3631583311.3981111.363158519.59.510.80.780.80.78635.325.3212.42.342.42.34730.810.8112.42.340.812.34836.156.1512.42.342.42.3410.0566311.355466. 流域汇流

39、方案制作步骤6.1制作地下径流汇流方案采用线性水库演算法作地下径流汇流方案。取 ；Cg是流域地下水退水系数,可由流域地下水退水曲线分析。取为0,可用水源划分计算的演算出次洪地下径流过程。 通过计算：Kg=37.5642表15 计算Rg及地表径流Rs时段tKkg1-KkgURg,tQg,tQg,t+1RRs130.9232030.07679798.79629630.38103256302.8909792181.0795922620.698559699230.9232030.07679798.79629630.6147493722.8909797.33320261413.1461788812.53

40、142951330.9232030.07679798.79629631.1965236667.33320315.8483297726.2417070625.04518339420.9481380.051862148.19444441.36315833115.8483325.5030932911.9538499810.59069165510.9737290.026271296.38888890.7825.5030930.906600749.58.72630.9232030.07679798.79629632.3430.906646.287180675.322.98730.9232030.0767

41、9798.79629632.3446.2871860.486583760.810830.9232030.07679798.79629632.3460.4865873.595520416.153.81930.9232030.07679798.7962963073.5955267.94363181030.9232030.07679798.7962963067.9436362.725789241130.9232030.07679798.7962963062.7257957.908659441230.9232030.07679798.7962963057.9086653.461469031330.92

42、32030.07679798.7962963053.4614749.355807891430.9232030.07679798.7962963049.3558145.565447731530.9232030.07679798.7962963045.5654542.066174491630.9232030.07679798.7962963042.0661738.835633681730.9232030.07679798.7962963038.8356335.853187541830.9232030.07679798.7962963035.8531933.099783241930.9232030.

43、07679798.7962963033.0997830.5578311320120.7245450.27545524.69907407030.5578322.1405092721120.7245450.27545524.69907407022.1405116.041784822120.7245450.27545524.69907407016.0417811.6229873623120.7245450.27545524.69907407011.622998.42137186724120.7245450.27545524.6990740708.4213726.10165888725120.7245450.27545524.6990740706.1016594.42092354626120.7245450.27545524.6990740704.4209243.20315595527120.7245450.27545524.6990740703.2031562.32082911328120.7245450.27545524.6990740702.3208291.68154402929120.7245