可替代能源Q2：首选依然是FSLR、TPIC、HASI与BE

1、Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 AlternativeEnergyCoverage3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 StockCoverage3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 StockPerformance3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 BloomEnergy7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Canadian Solar10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 FirstSolar,Inc14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 HannonArmstron

2、g17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Ormat Technologies21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 SolarEdge Technologies25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 SunPowerCorporation29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 TerraFormPower,Inc.33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 TPI Composites36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 10 Years of De-Carbonization andSomeElectrificat

3、ion39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 BloombergNEF 2019 New Energy Outlook45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 United States ITC and PTC Update46Alternative Energy CoverageOur top picks heading into 2019 are Overweight-rated Bloom Energy (BE), First Solar (FSLR), Hannon Armstrong (HASI), and TPI Composites (TPIC). We

4、 are also overweight TerraForm Power (TERP) and Solar Edge (SEDG).Stock CoverageTable 1: J.P. Morgan Ratings and PriceTargetsCompanyTickerAnalystRatingYE20 PTPrior YE19 PTBloom EnergyBECosterOverweight$33.00$30.00Canadian SolarCSIQStrouseNeutral$25.00$25.00First SolarFSLRCosterOverweight$74.00$72.00

5、Hannon ArmstrongHASIStrouseOverweight$31.00$28.00Ormat TechnologiesORACosterNeutral$66.00$60.00SolarEdge TechnologiesSEDGStrouseOverweight$71.00$63.00SunPowerSPWRStrouseNeutral$9.50$7.00TerraForm PowerTERPStrouseOverweight$16.00$16.00TPI CompositesTPICCosterOverweight$37.00$34.00Source: J.P. Morgan.

6、Within solar, our top pick is First Solar (FSLR). Alan Hon, J.P. Morgans Asia- based Utilities and Environment analyst, favors Overweight-rated LONGi (601012.CH). In November 2018 we published a report recommending FSLR and LONGi (see HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2845982-0 report), which highligh

7、ted the progress that thin film is making in terms of energy density (First Solar) and the progress that Mono is making in terms of cost/watt (LONGi).Stock PerformanceAlt Energy Stocks under coverage have posted positive returns YTD, mostly outperforming the S&P 500. Three of our top four picks have

8、 posted very strong returns: FSLR is up 58%, HASI is up 49%, and BE is up 30%. TPIC is up just 2% following the unexpected headwinds experienced in 1Q, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 19%.Figure 1: Covered Solar Stock Indexed Performance, YTDSource: Bloomberg, J.P .Morgan.Year-on-year returns

9、are more mixed: HASI and FSLR have outperformed y/y, but BE and TPIC are down y/y.Figure 2: Stocks under Coverage, Indexed Y/Y PerformanceSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.Figure 3: YTD Stock Performance for Select Alternative Energy StocksEnphase EnergySunPower Jinko Nordex SE SolarEdge TechnologiesFi

10、rst Guggenheim Solar LONGi Green Energy TechnologyHannonArmstrong Canadian Brookfield Renewable PartnersSiemens Gamesa TerraForm Pattern Energy Bloom EnergyAdvanced Energy IndustriesAtlantica YieldVestas Ormat S&P 500NextEra Energy PartnersRenesola TPICompositesGuodian Technology & Environment GCL-P

11、oly Energy HoldingsSenvion SA-69.0%-3.5%-9.5%88.4%82.0%77.4%57.8%56.5%54.3%52.6%51.1%42.8%40.3%33.6%31.4%29.8%21.2%21.2%20.7%20.3%19.9%17.7%12.6%1.5%149.9%124.5%-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%Source: Bloomberg.Trading multiples for selected comparable companiesFigure 4: Comp TableTrading multiple

12、s for selected comparable companies$ in millions, except per share data and as indicatedJPMRating AnalystPriceMkt CapEVP/EEV / EV / EBITDACY19ECY20ECY19ECY20ECY19ECY20EChina-based Solar DevCosCanadian SolarNeutralStrouse21.67$1,288$3,2389.4x7.8x0.9x0.8x7.9x7.1xJinko SolarNCN/A22.22$964$3,27811.5x9.8

13、x0.8x0.7x10.8x9.6xLONGi Green EnergyOverweightHon21.67$11,399$11,173nmnm2.5x1.8x13.0 x9.9xChina Solar DevCos Mean10.5x8.8x1.4x1.1x10.6x8.8xChina Solar DevCos Median10.5x8.8x0.9x0.8x10.8x9.6xNorth American-based Solar DevCosFirst SolarCoster66.99$7,058$5,65627.4x18.0 x1.6x1.7x11.1x7.8xSunPowerNeutral

14、Strouse12.42$1,768$2,612nmnm1.3x1.2xnm14.9xNorth Ame rican Solar DevCos Mean27.4xnm1.5x1.5x11.1x11.3xNorth Ame rican Solar DevCos Median27.4xnm1.5x1.5x11.1x11.3xInverters SolarEdgeOverweightStrouse62.27$2,961$2,69320.7x17.7x2.2x2.0 x13.7x11.6xEnphase EnergyNCN/A20.38$2,246$2,24741.7x26.8x4.6x3.7x29.

15、7x19.5xABB Ltd.Willi18.69$40,523$47,19917.5x14.5x1.6x1.6x13.7x11.2xSMA Solar Technology AGNCN/A21.10$948$506nmnm0.5x0.5x11.1x7.3xInverters Mean26.6x19.7x2.2x1.9x17.1x12.4xInverters Median20.7x17.7x1.9x1.8x13.7x11.4xYieldCo/Total Return TerraForm PowerOverweightStrouse14.56$3,045$9,412nmnm9.3x9.1x12.

16、4x12.2xHannon ArmstrongOverweightStrouse28.36$1,811$2,99820.4x19.7xnmnm24.2x21.5xBrookfield Renewable PartnersNCN/A46.80$10,998$30,851nmnmnmnm14.7x14.7xPattern EnergyNeutralTurnure23.57$2,316$5,752nm48.4xnm10.0 x15.7x14.5xNextEra Energy PartnersNeutralTurnure49.58$2,784$9,66638.1x27.3x8.1x6.4x8.7x7.

17、5xAtlantica YieldNCN/A22.89$2,295$7,30826.3x16.4x6.4x5.8x8.5x7.5xYieldCo Mean28.3x27.9x7.9x7.8x14.0 x13.0 xYieldCo Median26.3x23.5x8.1x7.8x13.5x13.3xSolar IPPSunrunNCN/A19.81$2,281$4,196nmnm5.0 x4.5xnmnmSolar IPP Meannmnm5.0 x4.5xnmnmSolar IPP Mediannmnm5.0 x4.5xnmnmAsia-based Renewables IPPChina Lo

18、ngyuanNCN/A5.16$5,310$19,10555.0 x49.4x4.4x4.2x6.8x6.3xHuaneng RenewablesNCN/A2.22$3,004$10,95240.8x36.7x5.6x5.1x6.4x5.8xChina Datang RenewablesNCN/A0.78$726$8,94125.3x22.3x6.4x5.9x7.4x6.7xAsia-based Renewabless IPP Mean40.4x36.1x5.5x5.1x6.9x6.3xAsia-based Renewabless IPP Median40.8x36.7x5.6x5.1x6.8

19、x6.3xWind OEMsVestasGupta586.60$17,522$15,720nmnm1.2x1.1x8.9x7.8xSiemens GamesaGupta14.90$11,376$11,98916.2x12.4x1.0 x0.9x8.3x7.6xSenvionOverweightGupta0.68$56$332na2.0 x0.1x0.1x2.8x2.0 xNordexNCN/A14.29$1,553$1,829nm24.7x0.5x0.5x11.3x7.1xWind OEM Mean16.2x13.0 x0.5x0.5x7.5x5.5xWind OEM Median16.2x1

20、2.4x0.5x0.5x8.3x7.1xOve rall Mean26.9x22.1x3.2x3.2x11.8x10.0 xOve rall Median25.3x18.9x1.9x1.8x11.1x7.8xSource: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Note: Prices as of 7/9/19 close.Bloom EnergyOverweightBloom Energy Corporation (BE;BEUS)CompanyDataYear-end Dec ($)FY18AFY19EFY20EFY21ESharesO/S (mn)159Revenue ($ m

21、n)7428781,1421,46952-weekrange($)38.00-8.88Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)6978210270Market cap($mn)2,054.88EBITDA margin9.3%8.9%18.4%18.4%Exchangerate1.00Adj. net income ($ mn)(60)(45)87126Freefloat(%)80.3%Adj. EPS ($)(0.62)(0.39)0.710.993M - Avg dailyvol (mn)1.38BBG EPS ($)(0.72)(0.56)0.210.793M - Avg dailyval

22、($17.1Reported EPS ($)(2.48)(2.32)(0.60)0.01mn)DPS ($)Volatility(90Day)61Dividend yieldIndexRUSSELLAdj. P/ENMNM18.213.1BBGBUY|HOLD|SELL5|4|0Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.We maintain our Overweight rating ahead of BEs 2Q results. The stock has also outperformed YTD, up 30%, a

23、nd we expect the management narrative to remain constructive, particularly regarding 2H19 and into FY20 ahead of the Gen 7.5 server availability. Backlog, above all else, provides us with confidence that demand is strong, aided by the recently announced partnership with Duke Energy, justifying manag

24、ements outlook for a return to above 25% revenue growth and over 25% gross margin in 2H19. We are establishing a Dec 2020 price target of $33 from a 2019 price target of$30.We look for PF EBITDA of $13mm on revenue of $204mm(Street:$12mm/$208mm). We look for Acceptances of 265 (guidance of 250-280)

25、and PF gross margin of 21.5%. We estimate an ASP of $6,200/kW and total installed system cost of $5,025/kW versus guidance of $6,050-6,350/kW and $4,875- 5,175/kW, respectively.We expect 3Q19 guidance to align with our expectations. We look for 3Q Acceptances of 315, up 53% y/y. We estimate an ASP o

26、f $5,385/kW and a total installed system cost of $4,300/kW. Recall that Bloom looks for revenue growth to jump to above 25% y/y in 2H as the firm delivers on known backlog at known (flattish) ASPs and the mix shifts away from Korea. The company looks for gross margins to jump to above 25%. We believ

27、e investors should be in the stock ahead of thisinflection.Investment Thesis, Valuation and RisksBloom Energy Corporation (Overweight; Price Target: $33.00)Investment ThesisAt 28x CY19E EV/EBITDA (JPM), the multiple for this stock in our view only partly expresses future earnings power; roll forward

28、 one year and the stock is trading at a more interesting 10 x CY20E EV/EBITDA. A discounted approach to future- dated earnings or cash flows suggests to us the stock is undervalued.ValuationWe are establishing a Dec 2020 price target of $33 from a Dec 2019 price target of $30.00 based on a discounte

29、d forward EV/EBITDA valuation approach. We assume 30% annual revenue growth through 2023, implying FY23E revenue of$2.5bn. We assume PF operating margins of 14.5%, within the companys long- term target range of 13-15%, implying $460mm in PF EBITDA. We assign a 16x EV/EBITDA multiple to 2023E EBITDA,

30、 a premium multiple justified in our view by BEs growth opportunity, then discount back three years to YE20E using a discount rate of 10%, computing a $33 per share valuation based on 159 million shares.Table 2: Price Target Derivation2023Revenue$2,483EBITDA$460EV/EBITDA16x2022 EV$7,361Assigned WACC

31、10%EV Discounted to YE20$5,366Debt$566Cash$370Equity Value YE20$5,170Share Count158.56Share Price$32.61Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.Risks to Rating and Price TargetExecution risk. The company has a lot to do in the next two to three years to scale up, commercialize the Generation 7 servers, extend

32、FRU life, and expand sales capability. Execution risk could increase as the company goes international.Resource constraints. Blooms principal execution challenge relates to its ability to attract talent necessary to scale the business. The firm will need to build an indirect sales channel over time,

33、 but doing so could weigh on corporate gross margins.Government policy support could be withdrawn. The ITC expires in 2022 but could conceivably be withdrawn earlier. Also PUCs could oppose the introduction of DG resources if they believe they are de-stabilizing the grid.Gas costs could escalate, we

34、ighing on ASP/kWh relative to expectations. Gas supply could be disrupted in some locations. Gas infrastructure, including delivery systems, may not expand to Blooms target end markets.Competition could intensify. Bloom faces competition from other fuel cell companies, such as Fuel Cell Technologies

35、 and Doosan, and from traditional gas turbine companies, which may lower costs in response to Blooms products.Stock-based compensation, dual-class shares. Stock-based compensation is very elevated for the next three years, which could be more dilutive to earnings than anticipated. Also class B share

36、s carry 10-to-1 voting rights compared to 1-to-1 for Class A. Class B shares, representing 88% of the total outstanding, represent 98% of the voting power of the company. Therefore, Class A shareholders may be at risk if Class B holders do not act on behalf of all shareholders.Bloom Energy: Summary

37、of FinancialsIncome Statement-AnnualFY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Income Statement - Quarterly1Q19A 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19ERevenue3767428781,1421,469Revenue201A204211262COGS(394)(625)(744)(848)(1,057)COGS (185)A(175)(174)(210)Gross profitGross profitSG&A(71)(82)(100)(118)(162)SG&A (24)A(26)(24)(26)Adj. EB

38、ITDA(79)6978210270Adj. EBITDA3A132438D&A(48)(43)(48)(60)(80)D&A (11)A(12)(12)(13)Adj. EBIT(127)2631150190Adj. EBIT(9)A21226Net Interest(109)(83)(74)(64)(64)Net Interest (16)A(20)(20)(19)Adj. PBT(250)(78)(55)70110Adj. PBT(24)A(22)(11)3Tax(1)(2)(2)10Tax(0)A(1)(1)(0)Minority Interest1918161717Minority

39、Interest 4A444Adj. Net Income(232)(60)(45)87126Adj. Net Income(25)A(19)(8)6Reported EPS(2.97)(2.48)(2.32)(0.60)0.01Reported EPS(0.76)A(0.73)(0.53)(0.32)Adj. EPS(2.63)(0.62)(0.39)0.710.99Adj. EPS(0.22)A(0.16)(0.07)0.05DPSDPSPayout ratioPayout ratioShares outstanding8897115122128Shares outstanding112A

40、114117118Balance Sheet & Cash Flow StatementFY17AFY18AFY19EFY20EFY21ERatio AnalysisFY17AFY18AFY19EFY20EFY21ECash and cash equivalents148249385461549Gross marginAccounts receivable30856985109EBITDA margin(21.1%)9.3%8.9%18.4%18.4%Inventories90132109134172EBIT margin(33.8%)3.6%3.5%13.2%12.9%Other curre

41、nt assets151206100100100Net profit margin(61.8%)(8.1%)(5.2%)7.6%8.6%Current assets420673663780930PP&E498481463463483ROE70.8%17.3%66.8%(124.0%)1146.8%LT investmentsROA(38.0%)(4.6%)(3.3%)6.3%8.3%Other non current assets303236204204204ROCE(89.2%)5.4%4.7%20.9%23.3%Total assets1,2211,3901,3301,4471,617SG

42、&A/Sales18.9%11.1%11.4%10.3%11.0%Net debt/equityNM5.4Short term borrowings2030383838Payables4967687596P/E (x)NMNMNM18.213.1Other short term liabilities203183174174174P/BV (x)NM13.9110.621.19.4Current liabilities271280280287308EV/EBITDA (x)NM35.030.811.28.5Long-term debt921711730754778Dividend YieldO

43、ther long term liabilities529308307331355Total liabilities1,7221,2991,3161,3721,441Sales/Assets (x)0.81.0Shareholders equity(656)(34)(101)(39)62Interest cover (x)NM4.2Minority interests155125115115115Operating leverage-(124.1%)89.5%1292.0%92.8%Total liabilities & equity1,2211,3901,3301,4471,617BVPS(

44、5.66)0.930.120.611.38Revenue y/y Growth-97.4%18.3%30.1%28.7%y/y Growth-(116.5%)(87.4%)424.5%124.1%EBITDA y/y Growth-(187.2%)13.4%168.3%28.5%Net debt/(cash)793492383331267Tax rate(0.3%)(2.0%)(3.9%)1.3%0.1%Adj. Net Income y/y Growth-(74.2%)(24.4%)(292.5%)45.0%Cash flow from operating activities(67)(58

45、)79158210EPS y/y Growth-(76.6%)(36.2%)(281.4%)38.7%o/w Depreciation & amortization4643486080DPS y/y Growtho/w Changes in working capital78(68)66(10)(17)Cash flow from investing activities(32)(96)81(60)(100)o/w Capital expenditure(5)(15)(33)(60)(100)as % of sales1.4%2.0%3.7%5.3%6.8%Cash flow from fin

46、ancing activities62253(15)(22)(22)o/w Dividends paido/w Net debt issued/(repaid)79(20)(14)(16)(16)Net change in cash(37)981467688Adj. Free cash flow to firm3711123161174y/y Growth-(68.8%)977.6%31.1%7.8%Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fisc

47、al year ends Dec. o/w - out of whichCanadian SolarNeutralCanadian Solar Inc (CSIQ;CSIQ US)CompanyDataYear-end Dec ($)FY18AFY19EFY20EFY21ESharesO/S (mn)59Revenue ($ mn)3,7453,7053,8713,96552-weekrange($)25.89-12.30Adj. EBIT ($ mn)365246237251Market cap($mn)1,282.36EBIT margin9.7%6.6%6.1%6.3%Exchanger

48、ate1.00EBITDA margin13.2%9.8%10.8%11.4%Freefloat(%)76.8%Adj. EPS ($)3.862.292.502.703M - Avg dailyvol (mn)0.77BBG EPS ($)3.192.312.772.393M - Avg dailyval ($15.5Reported EPS ($)3.862.292.502.70mn)Dividend yieldVolatility(90Day)52Adj. P/E8.0IndexRUSSELLP/ BV1.01.00.90.8BBGBUY|HOLD|SELL3|3|1Source: Co

49、mpany data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.We maintain our Neutral rating ahead of CSIQs 2Q results. The stock has traded up 51% YTD versus a 19% increase in the S&P500 index. Although we expect a slow 2Q19 print owing to the sale of the low-margin Mustang project and Chinas solar policy revisions

50、, investors should keep this stock on their radar heading into 2H19 owing to project schedules, rush orders ahead of the 2020 US ITC step-down, ramping bi-facial capacity, which is no longer subject to Section 201 tariffs, and easier y/y comps. We are establishing a Dec 2020 price target of $25, unc

51、hanged from our Dec 2019 price target.We expect CSIQ to report EPS of $0.17 on revenue of $995mm compared to consensus of $0.31 on $990mm. We look for revenue of $582mm the Modules segment, up 12% y/y, and $433mm from Solutions, up 231%. We expect 2,007 MW to be recognized in revenue. We look for 2Q

52、 gross margin of 14.2%, weighed down by the sale of the low-margin Mustang project (300bp headwind).We look for FY19 guidance to be narrowed toward the upper end of the prior range. We look for FY19 revenue of $3.71bn, above the midpoint of guidance of $3.5-3.8bn (Street: $3.69bn). We believe there

53、could be upside risks if the company can quickly ramp bi-facial capacity for sale into the US, if company accelerates sales of NTP projects, the US ITC step-down accelerates demand ahead of expectations, or if China policy revisions provide stronger than expected support beginning in mid2019.Introdu

54、cing FY21 estimates. We look for FY21E EPS of $2.69 on revenueof$3.96bn. We look for gross margin of 18%, consistent with the average over the past five years.Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks Canadian Solar Inc (Neutral; Price Target: $25.00) Investment ThesisMaintain Neutral. CSIQ is trading

55、at a discount to our SOTP-based Dec 2020 pricetarget of $25. We are warming to the story and believe investors should await a pullback, or closer proximity to the late-2019 ramp, before potentially getting involved. We expect CSIQ to perform in line with the mean of our coverage universe over the ne

56、xt 6-12 months.ValuationCSIQ is currently trading at 8.7x our CY20 EPS forecast of $2.50, a discount to its Chinese solar peers. We view Jinko Solar (JKS/NC) as the closest comp for CSIQ given its manufacturing capacity and technology similarities. JKS trades at a premium to CSIQ on a FY20 P/E basis

57、, implying that CSIQ is modestly undervalued, though we note that CSIQ is trading slightly above its three-year and five-year average NTM P/Eranges.We are establishing a Dec 2020 price target of $25, unchanged from our Dec 2019 price target. We assign a 9x multiple to our FY21E EPS of $2.69. multipl

58、e is a slight premium to the one-year average NTM multiple of 8.6x. We assign a per share value of $0.42 to CSIQs ownership in the Japanese REITbased on the current shareprice.Risks to Rating and Price TargetOur price target and rating for CSIQ could be at risk to the upside for any of the following

59、 reasons:Capacity is withdrawn from the market, panel prices firm, margins spike, earnings exceed expectations, and the balance sheetstrengthens.CSIQ sells held-back projects at elevated prices, leading to higher cashproceeds than originallyanticipated.CSIQ raises funds to support growth and to supp

60、ort conversion of held-back projects into country-specificYieldCos.Tariffs are relaxed on Chinese panels imported into the US, Canada, andEurope.Government subsidies for solar capacity and production are increased, causing growth in demand in all affectedmarkets.Our price target and rating for CSIQ