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EQUITIESIntellectualPropertyGlobalInfrastructure
Inside2Q19guidetoyieldinvesting
Macquarie'sglobalinfrastructurepicks2
1Q19guidetoyieldinvesting6Keypoints
Macquarie*sfundamentalviews10Lowerperceivedriskofrisingratesisdrivingutilitysharepriceperformancein
EuropeandtheUS.
Utilities13
WecontinuetothinkUStelecomshavetoworkhardertopreservetheir
Telecom21premiumsover2yr/1OyrTreasuries.
TransportationInfrastructure41»ICTPM.PLNGINand2778HKhaveOPratingsandarethetop-ratedinfra
RealestateandREITS53stocksbyourquantteam.
Yieldsummarycharts62
Thefundamentalview
Highestcurrentdividendyields67
Macro:Aspricegrowthaccelerates,ourEconomicsDeskStrategyteamexpectsthe
Fastestdividendgrowth68
Fedwillregainitshikingbiasin2H19,supportingourforecastforonehikebytheend
MacquarieAlphaModel69oftheyearandanotherin2020.OureconomistsbelievetheUS10-yearTyield
EnergyInfrastructure76shouldrisegraduallyto2.85%byend-19and3.25%byend-20.Itremainstobeseen
whethertheglobaleconomicslowdownisthebeginningofthenextglobalrecession,
Utilities78
oratemporarydipthatwillquicklyreverse,butoureconomicsteamtakescomfort
TelecommunicationInfrastructure81fromthefactthatmajorcentralbankshaveturnedonadimeandarenowactingto
TransportationInfrastructure84shoreupgrowth.
RealEstate87Topideasfor2Q19:(1)AmongUSregulatedelectricutilitieswefavorlarge-cap
valuestocks,AEPUSandSOUSinparticular.AESUSandEXCUSremainourtop
MacquarieDataSet90
picksamongdiversifiedutilities.InEurope,lowerperceivedriskofrisingratesis
drivingutilityperformance,benefitingregulatednamesandutilitiesleveringupwith
organiccapex.OurtoppicksinEuropeareNTGYSM,TRNIM,andEDPPL.Wepick
ASTAUamongAustralianregulatedutilities,andORGAUamongunregulated
names.InJapan,9505JPisourfavorite,and9513JPleastfavorite.InMalaysia,our
favoriteremainsTNBMKandinNewZealand-MELNZandCENNZ.(2)OfUS
telecomswecontinuetofavorTUSalthoughwethinktheyieldtelecomshaveto
workhardertopreservetheirpremiums.InEurope,wepickORAFPfordeliveryand
strategicshiftandINWIMforstrongdividendoutlookandscale.WelikeCNUNZin
NewZealandandSTSPinSingapore.(3)IntheAustralianinfrastructuresector,our
toppickisALXAU,andinNewZealandwelikeZELNZ.(4)Forrealestate,welike
GMTNZinNewZealand,MSPSJinSouthAfrica,andPHNXINinIndia.
Thequantview
Thetopquantpickgoesto87001HKwithanalphascoreof2.1,followedbyICTPM,
PLNGIN,600009CH,and2778HK.MoredetailsstartingonP69.
Ourtopglobalstockcalls
Wherefundamentalsandquantoverlap:ICTPM,PLNGINand2778HKhaveOP
ratingsandarethetop-ratedinfrastocksbyourquantteam,whileGLOPM,ILDFP
andBGRIMTBhavedualnegativeconviction(P74).
AnalystsWhereqrowthandyieldoverlap:ZELNZ,ATLIM,DRIGR,ENBCNandVKESJ
MacquarieCapital(USA)Inc.arestocksofferingastrongcombinationofbothNTMyields(5.5-9.8%)andDPS
AngieStorozynski+12122312569growth(6-50%pa)(P66).
angie.storozynski@
Pleaserefertopage98forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite
/research/disclosures.
MacquarieResearchGlobalInfrastructure
Macquarie'sglobalinfrastructurepicks
Fig1Favouritesandleastfavourites(seecommentsstartingonpage7)
Favorites
CompanyTickerRatingRegionPriceTP
Utilities
ContactEnergyCENNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$6.81NZ$6.26
NaturgyEnergyGroupNTGYSMOutperformEurope€25.3€25.5
TernaTRNIMOutperformEurope€5.59€5.9
EDP-EnergiesdePortugalEDPPLOutperformEurope€3.52€3.8
HokurikuElectricPowerCompany9505JPOutperformJapan¥851¥1060
TenagaNasionalTNBMKOutperformMalaysiaRM12.6RM15.8
SouthernCompanySOUSOutperformUnitedStates$51.4$52
AmericanElectricPowerAEPUSOutperformUnitedStates$82.88$85
TelecommunicationServices
OrangeORAFPOutperformEurope€14.82€16.3
AT&TTUSOutperformUnitedStates$32.29$35
SingTelSTSPOutperformSingaporeS$3.06S$4.12
InwitINWIMOutperformEurope€7.96€9
ChorusCNUNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$6NZ$5.25
RealEstateandREITs
GoodmanPropertyTrustGMTNZOutperformNewZealandNZ$1.7NZ$1.78
MASRealEstateMSPSJOutperformSouthAfricaR22R25
PhoenixMillsPHNXINOutperformIndiaRS645.7RS700
TransportationInfrastructure
AtlasArteriaALXAUOutperformAustraliaA$7.11A$7.31
AucklandInternationalAirportAIANZOutperformNewZealandNZ$8.05NZ$8.02
EnergyInfrastructure
ZEnergyZELNZOutperformNewZealandNZ$6.34NZ$7.14
LeastFavorites
CompanyTickerRatingRegionPriceTP
Utilities
ElectricPowerDevelopmentCo9513JPNeutralJapan¥2681¥2740
PPLPPLUSUnderperformUnitedStates$31.83$27
DukeEnergyDUKUSNeutralUnitedStates$89.88$88.5
VectorVCTNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$3.51NZ$3.5
TelecommunicationServices
CenturyLinkCTLUSUnderperformUnitedStates$12.4$12
DiGDIGIMKUnderperformMalaysiaRM4.7RM4.02
TelstraCorporationTLSAUUnderperformAustraliaA$3.27A$2.9
RealEstateandREITs
VitalHealthcarePropertyTrustVHPNZUnderperformNewZealandNZ$2.14NZ$2.07
FortressREITFFASJUnderperformSouthAfricaR18.7R17.9
TransportationInfrastructure
SydneyAirportSYDAUUnderperformAustraliaA$7.27A$6.69
Source:FactSet,MacquarieCapital(USA),April2019.AllpricesareasofApr8,2019.
9April20192
M
a
TheMacquarieInfrastructureIndexoutperformedMSCIin1Q19c
q
u
a
Rebalancedquarterlyandequallyweighted,theindexgoeslongallcoveredglobalinfrastockswithmktcaps>US$1bnandNTMyields>1%whichhadOutperformn
ratings(93)andshortthosewithUnderperformratings(19).e
eR
In1Q19,theIndexreturnedanet9.7%vstheMSCIWorldInfrastructurebenchmark's+8.9%.Sinceinceptionatthebeginningof1Q16,theIndexhasreturned+37%es
(+10%annualized)vs+13%(+4%annualized)forthebenchmark.a
cr
h
Fig2Macquariehas272infrastructurestocksundercoverageworldwide,coveredby44fundamentalanalystsacross16countries
UK/EUROPE—ASIA
UNITEDSTATES
,5analystsHongKong/CtwiaMalaysia
-2
•40infrastructurestocks.4anatysts•3analysts
-40inhirestocks
-20vifrastiucturestocks•17hfrastiucturestocks
tmfia
-3analysts•3analysis
•2
11tifrastmctunestocks•7rifrastiucturestocks
•13iiturest
MonesiaS^igapore
-2analysts•2analysis
•6infrastiiJdurestocks•9nfrastiucturestocks
JapanIhaiand
•3analysts•2analysts
•17rifrastnjcturestocks•1rifrastiucturestocks
Korea
-1analyst
•1infrastmcturestock
AUSTRALIA
•7analysts
-36iifrastmctufestocks
SOUTHAFRICA
NEWZEALAND
•2analysts
•3analysts
•30vifrastiucturestocks
•18infrastnjchimstocks
Source:MacquarieCapital(USA),April2019
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MacquarieCapital(USA)Inc.MacquarieCapital(Europe)LimitedMacquarieEquitiesSouthAfrica(Pty)Ltdr
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AngieStorozynskiJoseRuizMahirHamdulayR
se
+12122312569angie.storozynski@+442030371912jose.ruiz@+27218132705mahir.hamdulay@e
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