公司估值终稿.doc

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五、企业价值评估（一）主要财务比率与行业比较1、净利润率对比上图是广电网络净利润率与行业对比折线图。从行业看，2006年6月到2011年3月，广播电影电视业的净利润率呈曲折上升趋势。2007年前，广电网络净利润率低于行业净利润率，2007年9月到2008年6月，公司净利润经历了快速增长，并超过行业净利润率，2008年6月后，公司的净利润率增长趋于稳定，并且始终保持在行业净利润率之上，其波动幅度远低于行业。从净利润率来看，公司在行业中具有竞争力。2、净资产收益率对比2006年6月到2011年3月，公司净资产收益率与行业净资产收益率同周期波动，且几乎一直处在低于行业净资产收益率的水平波动。行业净资产收益率波动很大，而公司的净资产收益率则平稳得多。3、每股净资产对比2008年6月后，公司净资产开始低于行业平均水平，并且呈现逐渐下降的趋势，而行业平均每股净资产在2008年底达到了一个峰值，尔后回到平稳增长的轨道。4、每股收益对比公司在2006年6月到2011年3月间每股收益大致围绕一个平均值波动，并无显著的增长的趋势，其平均水平要低于行业的每股收益水平，波动幅度则远低于行业水平，5、每股现金含量对比2007年3月开始，公司每股现金含量逐渐走高，并在2008年超过行业平均水平。从总体上看，公司每股现金含量略高于行业平均水平，二者呈现同周期波动。 （二）现金流折现模型现金流贴现法又称拉巴鲍特模型法，是在考虑资金的时间价值和风险的情况下，将发生在不同时点的现金流量按既定的贴现率统一折算为现值再加总求得目标企业价值的方法。 由于广电网络经营业绩具有波动性，本文采用两阶段估计法评估企业价值。首先预测公司的销售收入。广电网络近两年业绩呈现不断增长的趋势，考虑到各种其他宏观和微观因素的影响，以公司2008年到2010年的平均销售增长率为基础确定预测期的销售增长率为31.83%；预计五年后公司进入稳定增长期，选取21.83%为增长率估计后续期现金流。其次，确定预测期间。本文确定的基期是2010年，详细预测期为2011年到2015年，后续期为2016年及以后会计年度。第三，利用以前期间的财务和会计数据确定销售成本率、长期资产增长率、长期资产增长率等假设，然后预测利润表和资产负债表，具体数据如下：预计利润表年份2010201120122013201420152016预测假设：销售增长率31.83%31.83%31.83%31.83%31.83%21.83%销售成本率61.03%61.03%61.03%61.03%61.03%61.03%销售和管理费用/销售收入21.71%21.71%21.71%21.71%21.71%21.71%短期债务利率5.58%5.58%5.58%5.58%5.58%5.58%5.58%长期债务利率6.12%6.12%6.12%6.12%6.12%6.12%6.12%平均所得税税率30%30%30%30%30%30%30%利润表项目税后经营利润：一、销售收入1,222,144,526.801,611,102,552.172,123,849,820.292,799,783,324.213,690,838,489.434,865,479,638.115,927,412,488.99减：销售成本716,172,582.47983,220,912.571,296,139,439.201,708,646,982.972,252,438,606.612,969,296,599.673,617,371,165.32销售和管理费用312,208,574.98349,770,364.08461,087,795.99607,832,959.69801,281,036.061,056,295,629.431,286,841,251.36二、税前经营利润193,763,369.35278,111,275.53366,622,585.11483,303,381.55637,118,846.76839,887,409.011,023,200,072.31减：经营利润所得税58,129,010.8183,433,382.66109,986,775.53144,991,014.47191,135,654.03251,966,222.70306,960,021.69三、税后经营利润135,634,358.55194,677,892.87256,635,809.57338,312,367.09445,983,192.73587,921,186.31716,240,050.62金融损益：四、短期借款利息18,693,000.0028,609,285.1337,714,436.6247,831,659.1858,271,330.9068,075,984.3876,126,556.06加：长期借款利息32,032,080.0049,024,496.3464,626,964.6981,963,704.7799,852,989.52116,654,115.32130,449,469.52五、利息费用合计50,725,080.0077,633,781.47102,341,401.30129,795,363.95158,124,320.42184,730,099.70206,576,025.58减：利息费用抵税15,217,524.0023,290,134.4430,702,420.3938,938,609.1947,437,296.1355,419,029.9161,972,807.67六、税后利息费用35,507,556.0054,343,647.0371,638,980.9190,856,754.77110,687,024.30129,311,069.79144,603,217.91七、税后利润合计100,126,802.55140,334,245.84184,996,828.66247,455,612.32335,296,168.44458,610,116.52571,636,832.71加：年初未分配的利润189,056,118.97271,293,260.48386,097,455.46481,084,742.56589,860,653.60727,977,612.97916,544,150.75八、可供分配的利润289,182,921.52411,627,506.32571,094,284.12728,540,354.88925,156,822.041,186,587,729.491,488,180,983.46减：应付普通股股利17,889,661.0325,530,050.8690,009,541.56125,847,910.80147,715,533.05145,359,734.16109,153,343.73九、未分配利润271,293,260.48386,097,455.46481,084,742.56589,860,653.60727,977,612.97916,544,150.751,180,806,737.65预计利润表年份2010201120122013201420152016预测假设：销售收入1,222,144,526.801,611,102,552.172,123,849,820.292,799,783,324.213,690,838,489.434,865,479,638.115,927,412,488.99经营现金21.28%21.28%21.28%21.28%21.28%21.28%21.28%其他经营流动资产15.59%15.59%15.59%15.59%15.59%15.59%15.59%经营流动负债82.03%82.03%82.03%82.03%82.03%82.03%82.03%长期资产增长率114.00%114.00%114.00%114.00%114.00%114.00%短期借款/投资资本15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%长期借款/投资资本24.01%24.01%24.01%24.01%24.01%24.01%24.01%盈余公积/本年利润15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%项目净经营资产：经营现金336,423,177.15342,842,623.10451,955,241.76595,793,891.39785,410,430.551,035,374,066.991,261,353,377.66其他经营流动资产120,041,084.59251,170,887.88331,108,186.98436,486,220.24575,401,720.50758,528,275.58924,083,607.03减：经营流动负债995,713,790.721,321,587,423.551,742,194,007.592,296,662,260.853,027,594,812.883,991,152,947.144,862,256,464.72经营营运资本-539,249,528.98-727,573,912.56-959,130,578.84-1,264,382,149.21-1,666,782,661.83-2,197,250,604.57-2,676,819,480.03经营性长期资产2,719,343,853.833,100,051,993.373,534,059,272.444,028,827,570.584,592,863,430.465,235,864,310.725,968,885,314.23减：经营长期负债0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00净经营长期资产2,719,343,853.833,100,051,993.373,534,059,272.444,028,827,570.584,592,863,430.465,235,864,310.725,968,885,314.23净经营资产总计2,180,094,324.852,372,478,080.812,574,928,693.592,764,445,421.372,926,080,768.633,038,613,706.153,292,065,834.20金融负债：短期借款335,000,000.00364,562,279.72395,671,463.62424,793,186.97449,630,571.63466,922,728.97505,868,962.59长期借款523,400,000.00569,587,752.85618,192,370.33663,691,803.17702,497,436.39729,514,496.54790,363,626.92金融负债合计858,400,000.00934,150,032.571,013,863,833.961,088,484,990.151,152,128,008.021,196,437,225.501,296,232,589.51金融资产0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00净负债（净金融资产）858,400,000.00934,150,032.571,013,863,833.961,088,484,990.151,152,128,008.021,196,437,225.501,296,232,589.51股本563,438,537.00563,438,537563,438,537563,438,537563,438,537563,438,537563,438,537资本公积433,743,383.37433,743,383.37433,743,383.37433,743,383.37433,743,383.37433,743,383.37433,743,383.37盈余公积33,998,535.5355,048,672.4182,798,196.70117,991,769.98160,866,643.84210,955,584.63266,967,974.23年初未分配利润189,056,118.97271,293,260.48386,097,455.46481,084,742.56560,786,740.87615,904,196.40634,038,975.64本年利润100,126,802.55140,334,245.84184,996,828.66234,623,821.84285,832,492.42333,926,271.94373,415,930.63本年股利17,889,661.0325,530,050.8690,009,541.56154,921,823.53230,715,036.90315,791,492.69275,771,556.18年末未分配利润271,293,260.48386,097,455.46481,084,742.56560,786,740.87615,904,196.40634,038,975.64731,683,350.09股东权益合计1,321,694,324.851,438,328,048.241,561,064,859.641,675,960,431.221,773,952,760.611,842,176,480.651,995,833,244.69净负债及股东权益合计2,180,094,324.852,372,478,080.812,574,928,693.592,764,445,421.372,926,080,768.633,038,613,706.153,292,065,834.20 第四，采用两阶段增长模型估计股权价值，确定的折现率是7.52%。预测结果如下表所示：年份2010201120122013201420152016现金流量：税后经营利润135,634,358.55194,677,892.87256,635,809.57325,480,576.61412,793,545.55523,528,970.68663,970,127.67减：本期净投资192,383,755.96202,450,612.79189,516,727.77161,635,347.27112,532,937.52253,452,128.04实体现金流量2,294,136.9154,185,196.79135,963,848.83251,158,198.28410,996,033.16410,517,999.62资本成本7.52%7.52%7.52%7.52%7.52%7.52%折现系数0.93010.86500.80450.74820.69590.6959成长期现值632,333,107.482,133,683.8846,870,775.97109,384,474.03187,927,499.87286,016,673.72后续期价值3,068,571,481.284,409,430,715.61实体价值合计3,700,904,588.75净债务价值858,400,000.00股权价值2,842,504,588.75股数563,438,537.00每股价值5.04 股权现金流折现结果得到广电网络的每股价值是5.04元。2010年12月31日广电网络的收盘价是10.3元，这与光电网络的预测价值差别较大。这是因为从财务报表中的到得数据不够具体，不能完全反映公司的真实状况。尽管本文的假设考虑的公司的历史业绩表现，但可能因为一些数据的不可获得性使得这些假设在具体情况中并不够合理。 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