巨涛海洋石油服务(03303.HK)：海底装备市场将有庞大的机遇-2013-02-01.ppt

买入 (首次) -20% 公司报告 巨涛海洋石油服务 (03303.hk) 海底装备市场将有庞大的机遇 目标价：hk$ 1.50 巨涛海洋石油服务 (“巨涛”或“公司”)提供石油、水及天然气处 理装备，该等装备为油/气田开发及生产的必需品。集团已由过往单 现价：hk$1.05 纯的代工厂演变为一间可以向高端客户提供一站式设计、采购及製 招商证券(香港)研究部 造服务(epc)的企业。 郁明德 (852) 31896123 新珠海厂房提升产能并可提供海底装备产品巨涛新珠海厂房第 二期建设工程的完工，不单把巨涛的生产能力提升了 200%，同时让 2013 年 1 月 31 日 巨涛能够向客户提供海底装备产品。巨涛为中国唯一一间油气海底装 备产品供应商。 基础数据 恒生指数23,822.06 发展油田的投放增加导致蓬莱巨涛的贡献回升。巨涛拥有蓬莱巨涛， 一间油台製造及设计服务供应商，30%的股权，为其最大的股东。其 主要客户为中海油及中海油服。故此，随著中海油增加投放于油气田 开发的资本开支增加，蓬莱巨涛的贡献将会上升。 向雪佛龙的 wheatstone 项目供应海底装备产品。巨涛通过其战略合 作夥伴 fmc technologies，正为雪佛龙于西澳洲、总额达 290 亿美元 的 wheatstone 液化天然气项目建造水下管汇。我们预计在 2013 年至 2014 年末，巨涛将向 fmc technologies 供应最少三套水下管汇。 h 股指数 总股数（百万股） 港股股数（百万股） 港股市值(港元百万) 每股净资产（港元） 主要股东 lishan wang 自由流通量 行业 股价表现 12,172.24 628.80 628.80 647.66 $1.36 持股() 63.12% 33.38% 石油/天然气 %1m6m12m 估值 我们首次给予巨涛买入评级，基于2013年的15.0倍市盈 率，目标价为港币1.50元。 绝对表现 相对恒指表现 (15.6) (20.3) 77.6 57.7 119.1 102.8 % 230% 03303.hkhsi index 盈利预测及估值 180% sino land (23.hk) price 人民币百万元 营业额 同比增长(%) 2010 428 8% 2011 493 15% 2012e 522 6% 2013e 648 24% 2014e 800 23% 130% 80% 30% 净利润709295564 jan 12apr 12jul 12oct 12jan 13 同比增长(%) 每股盈利（元） 每股股息（元） 市盈率（x） 市净率（x） roe（%） -6% 0.14 0.03 6.3 0.6 10% -87% 0.02 0.00 50.5 0.5 1% 210% 0.04 0.00 20.7 0.6 3% 92% 0.08 0.00 10.8 0.6 6% 15% 0.09 0.00 9.4 0.6 6% 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 25 (initial) buy 1 8 180% 130% -20% company report jutal offshore oil services (03303.hk) subsea equipment market provides vast potential jutal offshore oil services (“jutal” or “company”) provides oil, water, and natural gas processing equipment that are vital to oil/gas field development and production. the company has evolved from a pure oem provider to one that can provide one-stop engineering, procurement, and construction services (epc) for its high-end equipment clientele. tp：hk$ 1.50 current price hk$1.05 china merchants securities (hk) michael yuk (852) 31896123 new zhuhai plant increases production capacity to include subsea equipment completion of phase ii construction at jutals new zhuhai plant not only increases production capacity by 200% but also allows jutal to 31 jan 2013 key data add subsea production equipment to its product offering. jutal is the only manufacturer of oil gas processing platform fixed at 73m of water depth and topsides that have total deck area of 20,000square meters and include separation, compression, and dehydration facilities; a 225km export trunkline that will deliver the gas onshore for further processing at ashburton north. downstream facilities include the management and delivery of the onshore lng and domestic gas facilities, site preparation and accommodation. from the 225km trunkline, the gas and condensate will be further processed and stored for export. figure 23: typical subsea structure system source: chevron australia please see important notice on the last page. 23 of 25 8 company report appendix: financial summary statement of financial positionstatement of comprehensive income rmbmn20102011 2012e 2013e 2014e rmbmn20102011 2012e 2013e 2014e current assets270298299327360revenues428493522648800 cash & equivalents8869575760cost of sales(332)(393) (418) (519) (640) trading investments trade notes 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 sales taxes op expenses 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (2) 0 (2) 0 (2) trade receivables152192203222241admin exp(69)(83)(89) (110) (136) other receivables inventories other current assets non-current assets investment property ppe intangible assets other non-current assets total assets liquid liabilities bank loans trade payables 18 7 3 554 0 95 5 454 823 149 38 72 27 8 2 762 0 309 3 450 1060 212 97 71 29 8 2 849 0 364 3 482 1148 217 131 76 36 10 2 970 0 419 3 549 1297 269 162 94 44 12 2 1102 0 474 3 625 1462 331 200 116 financial costs impairments fv changes others op profit non-op inc non-op exp pbt taxes net profit nci parents (5) 0 0 19 44 0 0 82 (12) 70 2 67 (4) 0 0 2 19 0 0 17 (8) 9 0 9 (7) 0 0 0 14 0 0 38 (10) 29 0 29 (10) 0 0 0 18 0 0 74 (18) 55 0 55 (12) 0 0 0 22 0 0 85 (21) 64 0 64 prepaid accounts00000eps - (hk$)0.140.020.040.08 0.09 other liquid liabilities long term liabilities 39 18 44 23 11 23 12 43 15 58 ratios loans others 0 18 0 23 0 23 20 23 35 23 yoy growth rate 20102011 2012e 2013e 2014e total liabilities issued capital retained earnings 167 5 233 234 6 241 240 6 270 311 6 325 388 6 389 revenue op profit net profit 8.1% 15.3% 5.9% 24.1% 23.4% -3.8% -57.0% -25.9% 24.1% 23.4% -5.6% -86.6% 209.5% 91.9% 15.0% reserves419578632654678 profitability nci parents 0 656 0 825 0 908 0 986 0 1073 gross margin np margin 22.4% 16.3% 20.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 1.9% 5.5% 8.5% 7.9% total equity and liabilities8231060114812971462roe10.3%1.1%3.2%5.6% 5.9% roic5.3%1.1%1.0%1.1% 1.2% statement of cash flowsliquidity rmbm20102011 2012e 2013e 2014ed/a4.6%9.2% 11.4% 14.0% 16.1% cf from oa18(19)836nd/a-6.1%2.6% 6.4% 9.7% 12.0% pbt d&a 82 14 17 11 38 13 74 15 85 17 liquid ratio quick ratio 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 finance costs(5)(4)(7)(10)(12) operating efficiency investment income00000asset turnover0.50.5 changes of wc others cf from ia (22) (51) 109 (43) (0) (42) (9) (28) (55) (10) (66) (55) (8) (76) (55) inventory turnover ar turnover ap turnover 39.3 129.5 378.4 33.0 141.8 312.2 33.0 141.8 312.2 33.0 33.0 125.0 110.0 312.0 312.0 capital expenditure(11)(44)(55)(55)(55) per share ratios(rmb) other investments cf from fa borrowings share capital 120 (75) (31) 0 2 46 59 0 0 34 34 0 0 52 52 0 0 53 53 0 eps cfs bvps dps 0.14 0.01 1.32 0.03 0.02 0.02 1.57 0.00 0.04 (0.07) 1.45 0.00 0.08 0.09 (0.07) (0.07) 1.41 1.53 0.00 0.00 changes of reserves54295564 valuation ratios dividends others net cash flow 0 (97) 49 (13) (9) (16) 0 (29) (13) 0 (55) 0 0 (64) 4 pe pb ev/ebitda 6.3 0.6 17.1 50.5 0.5 36.5 20.7 0.6 52.5 10.8 0.6 45.2 9.4 0.6 38.9 source: company data, cms(hk) estimates please see important notice on the last page. 24 of 25 buy sell company report rating definition & disclaimer rating outperform neutral underperform definition expected to outperform the market index by 20% over the next twelve months expected to outperform the market index by 10-20% over the next twelve months expected to outperform or underperform the market index by 20% over the next twelve months disclaimer: this document is prepared by china merchant securities (hk) co., limited (“cms”). cms is a licensed corporation to carry on type 1 (dealing in securities), type 2 (dealing in futures), type 4 (advising on securities), type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and type 9 (asset management) regulated activities under securities and futures ordinance (chapter 571). this document is for information purpose only. neither the information nor opinion expressed shall be construed, expressly or impliedly, as an advice, offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement, recommendation or representation of any kind or form whatsoever or any financial instrument in any jurisdiction where such advice, offer, invitation, advertisement or solicitation would be illegal. the information and opinions, and associated estimates and forecasts, contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable. cms, its holding or affiliated companies, or any of its or their directors, officers or employees (“cms group”) do not represent and warrant that it is accurate or correctness or complete and it should be relied upon. cms group will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this document or any of the content thereof. the contents and information in this document will be subject to change without prior notice. use of any information herein shall b