戴德梁行：2010年二季度日本房地产市场研究.pdf

property times tokyo/osaka 東京 / 大阪 q2 2010 office market in adjustment 14 july 2010 contents executive summary 1 economic overview 2 offices tokyo 3 offices major new supply 5 offices osaka 6 investment 7 j-reit 8 definitions 9 map tokyo and osaka 10 contacts 11 author kayoko hirao head of research, japan +81 (0)3 5512 8213 contacts david green-morgan head of research, asia pacific +61 (0)2 8243 9913 tony mcgough global head of forecasting however the pace of decline slowed. all grade offices continued to suffer from increasing vacancy and declining rents as june vacancy for cbd tokyo rose to 9.14% from 8.75% in march, while rents declined 1.3% q-on-q to jpy 18,035 according to data from miki shoji. most corporates are focusing on office consolidation and cost reduction, with very few cases of expansion. landlords have succeeded in reducing available space since last september by offering lower rents. however, the market has stagnated and likely postponed the adjustment period in the market cycle. the slowing pace of rent decline may encourage some tenants to take action earlier including relocations to better premises before rents begin to rise although such actions are not commonplace at this moment. our outlook for grade a remains the same; vacancy begins to decline soon again and rents on a gradual decline at least until the end of 2010. however, concern remains as to the extent of the recent debt crisis which may lead to a global double dip, which will affect the office market. without a sustainable economic recovery followed by an improvement in corporate performance, the real upturn in the office market will not be realized. 45 offices major new supply table 1 tokyo major new supply date building location gfa (sq m) (tsubo) storey 竣工 名 所在地 延床面積 (m2 ) （坪） 階数 jul 10 smbc main branch building chiyoda-ku, 1 marunouchi 80,047 24,214 23 / 4 三井住友銀行本店 千代田区丸内 1 丁目 aug 10 sumitomo fudosan shibuya first building shibuya-ku, 1 higashi 52,753 15,957 25 / 3 住友不動産渋谷 渋谷区東 1 丁目 (residential inclusive) aug 10 tokyu capitol tower chiyoda-ku, 2 nagatacho 31,000 9,378 29 / 4 東急 千代田区永田町 2 丁目 sep 10 muromachi east mitsui building chuo-ku, 1 nihonbashi muromachi 40,429 12,229 22 / 4 室町東三井 中央区日本橋室町 1 丁目 sep 10 nihonbashi muromachi nomura building chuo-ku, 1 nihonbashi muromachi 46,397 14,035 21 / 4 日本橋室町野村 中央区日本橋室町 1 丁目 nov 10 shinagawa chunichi building minato-ku, 2 konan 72,621 21,967 19 / 3 品川中日 港区港南 2 丁目 table 2 osaka major new supply date building location gfa (sq m) (tsubo) storey 竣工 名 所在地 延床面積 (m2 ) （坪） 階数 apr 10 midosuji kita-kyuhoujimachi building chuo-ku, 3 kita-kyuhoujimachi 9,976 3,018 13 / 1 御堂筋北久宝寺 中央区北久宝寺町 3 丁目 apr 10 umeda hankyu bldg. office tower kita-ku, 8 kakudacho 103,000 31,157 41 / 2 梅田阪急 北区角田町 8 番地 jun 10 hommachi garden city chuo-ku, 3 honmachi 50,153 15,171 27 / 2 本町 中央区本町 3 丁目 (hotel inclusive) oct 10 osaka fukoku life insurance building kita-ku, 2 komatsubaracho 68,494 20,719 28 / 4 大阪富国生命 北区小松原町 2 丁目 67 offices osaka new supplynet absorption osaka grade a office new supply and net absorption 新規供給 / source: miki shoji出所：三鬼商事 figure 7 2009 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 10,000 0 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 tsubo figure 8 jpy/tsubo/month osaka grade a office rent and vacancy rentvacancy source: miki shoji出所：三鬼商事 % 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 12.0 8.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 賃料 / 空室率 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 q2 2010 q1 2010 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 大阪 2 棟大型竣工。一、 梅田阪急 （延床面積：103,000m2）、大阪 梅田駅前完成阪急百貨店再開発 。地上 41 階建高層、低層階（b2-13f）阪急 百貨店本店、上層階（15-41f） 。新日本有限責任監査法人、toto 入居 。 1 棟、積水開発進本町 。地上 27 階建（延床面積 ： 50,153m2）、 上層階（11-27f）日本初進出、中 層階 （3-10f） 、 低層階店舗。 岩谷産業決定。 2010 年第 2 四半期大阪 cbd a 空室率、前期比 1.24 増 10.24、 10大台超。 上昇11期連続。 、 a 賃料、前期比 0.4減前年 同期比 1.7減月坪 15,963 円。 大阪賃貸市場、引続厳状況続 。竣工時間経過未入居状態続 増加、新規供給加、募集面 積状態続。2010 年上期比、 下期新規供給数限、側期間 利用、柔軟対応獲得進肝要 。、東京同様、需要伸悩中、 好転時間要予想。 major buildings completed in this quarter in the osaka cbd include umeda hankyu building office tower (office gfa: 103,000 sq m) in front of osaka/umeda station. this is the redevelopment project of hankyu department store which opened on the lower floors, while the office floor spreads from 15 to 41f. ernst chiyoda-ku, chuo-ku, minato-ku, shinjuku-ku and shibuya-ku. tokyo grade a office a large scale office building with gfa above 30,000 sq m, and located within the selected parts of cbd tokyo. osaka cbd the cbd osaka is divided into six sub-markets; umeda area, minamimorimachi area, yodoyabashi/honmachi area, semba area, shinsaibashi/namba area, shin- osaka area. osaka grade a office a large scale office building with gfa above 4,000 tsubo, and located within cbd osaka. new supply refers to the supply of new grade a office buildings which are confirmed. net absorption the change in the total of occupied floorspace over a specified period of time, either positive or negative. rents average grade a office fixed rents exclusive of management cost and all other costs. vacancy rate refers to the percentage of total grade a office vacant spaces. measurement 1 tsubo = 3.3 sq m 東京 cbd 東京都内主要 5 区；千代田区、中央区、港区、新宿区、渋谷区 東京 延床 30,000m2以上、且主要区内特定地域位置 事務所 大阪 cbd 大阪地区主要 6 地区；梅田、南森町、淀屋橋本町、 船場、心斎橋難波、新大阪地区 大阪 延床 4,000 坪以上、上記主要 6 地区内位置事務所 新規供給 確認新築 一定期間内稼働床面積差異 賃料 平均賃料（共益費等除） 空室率 合計空室面積値割合 1011 map tokyo and osaka shinagawa-ku shinagawa hamamatsucho shimbashi tokyo akihabara yurakucho ginza akasaka-mitsuke tameike-sanno roppongi ebisu shibuya harajuku omote-sando shinjuku meguro-ku minato-ku chuo-ku chiyoda-ku shinjuku-ku shibuya-ku osaki dtz daiba n s 012km osaka kyobashi higobashi yodoyabashi umeda kitahama tsuruhashi tennoji namba nipponbashi shinsaibashi yotsubashi honmachi shin-osaka fukushima-ku konohana-ku minato-ku taisho-ku nishinari-ku naniwa-ku nishi-ku tennoji-ku ikuno-ku higashinari-ku chuo-ku joto-ku asahi-ku miyakojima-ku kita-ku higashi- yodogawa-ku yodogawa-ku n s dtz012km central tokyo central osaka 1011 investment group noboru hirabayashi 平林 昇 consulting & research group kayoko hirao 平尾 佳誉子 cre solutions group hiroyasu odagi 小田木 弘康 occupier service department mitsuru kobayashi 小林 充 commercial & logistics department minoru sugiyama 杉山 実 crem development department hitoshi kumagai 熊谷 比斗史 valuation group yasuhiro takebe 武部 康博 contacts dtz