【戴德梁行】2008年第二季度上海工业房地产市场分析报告.pdf

map of shanghai ? contents ? 01 market overview ? 03 supply ? 04 demand ? 07 forecast ? 09 map of china ? q2 2008 experienced steady growth across all segments of the industrial real estate market. the steady growth in rental rates, take-up and new supply indicates by all accounts that the current state of the world economy is not impacting this market with the severity as many predicted. chinas economy and specifi cally its manufacturing base has recently suffered signifi cant production cost increases, infl ation, growing labour costs, and escalating land prices that many thought would affect the industrial real estate market. these negative factors have contributed to some companies relocating premises in search of lower cost options, but they have certainly not caused a cooling of the market or general decrease in activity. in many regards, however, the last quarter proved this not to be the case. the strongest indicator that the market remains healthy is high levels of absorption across all three market segments (r they prefer higher income generating activities like r&d centers or business parks which are now an encouraged market segment under the central governments most recent initiatives. on the other hand, logistics is an encouraged industry and vital part of the growing chinese economy. demand for space is high and both rents and yields remain attractive. we anticipate that this dichotomous position will result in capital rich developers still acquiring the prime plots nearest to the city center, while smaller developers will look to cheaper alternative options further from shanghai. we foresee continued investment and development of the yangtze river delta tier 2 cities such as jiaxing, wuxi, wujiang, kunshan, taicang, changshu, nantong and many others. the impact of recent labour law changes, escalating land prices will make locating to the smaller cities of the yangtze river delta more attractive. furthermore, several recently announced or completed infrastructure projects will increase the attractiveness of the yangtze river deltas tier 2 cities. these are the hangzhou bay bridge, the sutong bridge crossing the yangtze river, the high speed track connecting shanghai hongqiao and nanjing with stops in kunshan, suzhou, changzhou and wuxi, and fi nally a similar train planned to connect hangzhou and shanghai. these projects will greatly increase the accessibility of tier 2 and 3 cities in the yangtze river delta and further integrate the region. finally, rising land prices combined with an increasingly attractive investment environment for the aforementioned factors will cause many investors and developers to consider these tier 2 cities as potential destinations for investment. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 07 forecast ? 0.97-1.62 0.80 0.47 0.7-0.97 0.4-0.53 0.6-0.8 0.4-0.5 0.4-0.5 0.5-1.3 0.6 0.4 0.33-0.47 0.33-0.4 0.6-0.7 1.0-1.8 zones ? factory rent (rmb/ sq m/day) ? land sale price (usd/sq m) ? beijing economic and technological development area ? tianjin economic and technological development area ? qingdao economic & technological development zone ? suzhou industrial park ? wuxi hi-tech industry development zone ? hangzhou economic & technological development area ? ningbo economic & technical development zone ? nanjing economic & technological development zone ? guangzhou development district ? shenzhen grand zone ? chongqing economic & technological development zone ? chengdu economic & technological development zone ? wuhan economic & technological development zone ? dalian development area ? dalian hi-tech industrial zone ? 60 39-50 33 44 38 33 38 38 79 79 38 25 25 44 44 latest rental and sales price of major development zones (excluding shanghai)? ? ? ? ?+86 10 85198012 ? ? ? ?+86 755 82461740 ? north china, beijing offi ce peter zhang tel?+86 10 85198012 email? south and west china, shenzhen offi ce grace gu tel?+86 755 82461740 email? for further information, please contact: dtz industrial department east and central china, shanghai offi ce tony su tel?+86 21 22080255 email? ? dtz? ? ? ?+86 21 22080255 ? 08 09 9 01 21 11 31 8 54 6 7 3 2 51 41 1 map of china 中 国 地 图 1. beijing economic and technological development area 北京经济技术开发区 2. tianjin economic and technological development area 天津经济技术开发区 3. qingdao economic & technological development zone 青岛经济技术开发区 4. suzhou industrial park 苏州工业园 5. wuxi hi-tech industry development zone 无锡高新技术产业开发区 6. hangzhou economic & technological development area 杭州经济技术开发区 7. ningbo economic & technical development zone 宁波经济技术开发区 8. nanjing economic & technological development zone 南京经济技术开发区 9. guangzhou development district 广州开发区 10. shenzhen grand zone 深圳大工业区 11. chongqing economic & technological development zone 重庆经济技术开发区 12. chengdu economic & technological development zone 成都经济技术开发区 13. wuhan economic & technological development zone 武汉经济技术开发区 14. dalian development area 大连开发区 15. dalian hi-tech industrial zone 大连高新技术产业开发区 ?dtz? ? ? dtz? dtz july 2008 disclaimer and confi dentiality clause this report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specifi c, qualifi ed, professional advice. whilst facts have been rigorously checked, dtz can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. any such reproduction should be credited to dtz. dtz? dtz dtz has over 12,500 staff operating from 150 cities in 45 countries. .hk .tw huathong_.sg researchdtz.co.id brian_.my choonfah_.sg noboru.hirabayashidtz.co.jp +852 2507 0507 +86 10 6510 1388 +86 28 8665 3048 +86 23 6383 8405 +86 411 8886 5288 +86 20 3877 0878 +86 571 8577 9946 +86 411 8886 5288 +86 21 2208 0213 +86 411 8886 5288 +86 755 8212 5111 +86 22 2313 9751 +86 27 6885 0868 +86 29 8720 3690 +886 2 8788 3288 +91 98459 96299 +91 98181 44544 +91 98200 40025 +662 257 0499 +6221 576 3838 +603 2161 7228 +65 6293 3228 +813 3505 8850 david ji ? benjamin pollock ? roy lee ? ricky won