交通规划课程设计.doc

交 通 规 划 课 程 设 计 专业班级：交通 班 姓 名： 学 号：310802030317 指导老师：李香红交通规划一：居民出行发生、吸引的交通量预测交通的发生与吸引是交通需求预测四阶段预测中的第一阶段。发生与吸引交通量的预测方法也分原单位发、增长率法、聚类分析法和函数法。根据本课程设计的要求我们采用原单位法。原单位法：利用原单位法预测发生与吸引交通量时，首先需要分别计算发生原单位和吸引原单位，然后根据发生原单位和吸引原单位与人口、面积等属性的乘积预测得到发生与吸引交通量的值，分别可用下式表示： ,（1-1）其中，i, j：交通小区；x：属性变量，常用常住人口、白天人口，从业人口、土地利用类别、面积等；b：某出行目的的单位出行发生次数（次/日人）；c：某出行目的的单位出行吸引次数（次/日人）。 ：小区i的发生交通量； ：小区j的吸引交通量。一般，在交通需求预测时，要求各小区的发生交通量之和与吸引交通量之和相等，并且各小区的发生交通量之和均等于生成交通量。如果他们之间不满足上述关系，我们采用调整系数法进行调整，一般认为所有小区出行发生总量（o=）可靠些。从而，可将吸引总量乘以一个调整系数。这样可以确保出行吸引总量等于出行发生总量。 （1-2）表1 现状od表o d1234567发生量120310222880329404419225512718629440725554吸引量21270287213998419040313112476121286=20310+22880+29404+19225+12718+29440+25554=159531=21270+28721+39984+19040+31311+24761+21286=186373所以要进行调整f=159531/186373=0.855977=21270*f=18207=28721*f=24585=39984*f=34225=19040*f=16298=31311*f=26801=24761*f=21195=21286*f=18220调整后的=+=159531=满足则：调整后的出行量吸引量分布如下表二调整后的吸引量出行量o d1234567发生量120310222880329404419225512718629440725554吸引量18207245853422516298268012119518220159531二：交通分布预测交通的分布预测是交通规划四阶段预测的第二阶段。我们运用底特律法对小区将来的交通分布进行计算底特律法：底特律法的原理是假设i；j小区间分布交通量的增长系数与i小区出行发生量和j小区出行吸引量增长系数之积成正比，与出行生成量的增长系数成反比，即： =* （2-1）对小区现状的交通量分布情况，根据要求自行给出，则分布如下： 表3现在小区交通量分布o d1234567发生量132003500343016003600340015802031023180364034003700320038201940228803260048615200430046003719412429404416003240380016003225276030001922552200210020641200210017541300127186362052006300240046003760356029440718072044100311498 54761982271625554吸引量18207245853422516298268012119518220小区将来的发生量与吸引量如下：表4将来的发生与吸引交通量o d1234567发生量134505231874337810429510522445639214736185吸引量32337357894625720786362503058129543231543发生交通量增长系数f和吸引交通量系数分别如下： =34505/20310= 1.699 =31874/22880=1.393=37810/29404=1.286 =29510/19225=1.535=22445/12718=1.764 =39214/29440=1.332=36185/25554=1.416 =32337/18207=1.776=35789/24585=1.456 =46257/34225=1.351=20786/16298=1.275 =36250/26801=1.353=30581/21195=1.443 =29543/18220=1.621生成交通量增长系数的倒数：=159531/231543=0.689第一次近似：=*=2107*1.776*1.699*0.689=4380.376=3310*1.699*1.456*0.689=5640.179=3500*1.699*1.351*0.689=5537.167=2430*1.699*1.275*0.689=3627.675=3601*1.699*1.353*0.689=5701.192=3830*1.699*1.443*0.689=6468.485=1532*1.699*1.621*0.689=2907.706=3300*1.393*1.776*0.689=5625.605=3775*1.393*1.456*0.689=5274.609=4400*1.393*1.351*0.689=5707.957=2300*1.393*1.275*0.689=2815.519=4600*1.393*1.353*0.689=5971.849=2305*1.393*1.443*0.689=3192.149=2200*1.393*1.621*0.689=3423.914=3300*1.286*1.776*0.689=5192.649=3300*1.286*1.456*0.689=4256.053=7900*1.286*1.351*0.689=9459.644=2908*1.286*1.275*0.689=3285.827=5400*1.286*1.353*0.689=6470.897=3540*1.286*1.443*0.689=4525.173=3.56*1.286*1.621*0.689=4390.088=1800*1.535*1.776*0.689=3381.039=3500*1.535*1.456*0.689=5388.448=3120*1.535*1.351*0.689=4459.692=1500*1.535*1.275*0.689=2023.225=2100*1.535*1.353*0.689=3003.949=4100*1.535*1.443*0.689=6256.312=3105*1.535*1.621*0.689=5324.565=1700*1.764*1.776*0.689=3671.339=1200*1.764*1.456*0.689=2124.099=2100*1.764*1.351*0.689=3451.179=1100*1.764*1.275*0.689=1705.861=1900*1.764*1.353*0.689=3124.819=2518*1.764*1.443*0.689=4417.619=2200*1.621*1.764*0.689=4337.536=3100*1.332*1.776*0.689=5052.889=5400*1.332*1.456*0.689=7214.228=8100*1.332*1.351*0.689=10046.99=3150*1.332*1.275*0.689=3686.922=5500*1.332*1.353*0.689=6827.106=1690*1.332*1.443*0.689=2237.802=2500*1.332*1.621*0.689=3720.172=2900*1.416*1.776*0.689=5044.135=4100*1.416*1.456*0.689=5822.9945105*1.416*1.351*0.689=6731.5162910*1.416*1.275*0.689=3620.8683700*1.416*1.353*0.689=4882.4963212*1.416*1.443*0.689=4521.4423627*1.416*1.621*0.689=5737.688计算后得表51234567发生量14380.37625640.1795537.1673627.6755701.1926468.4852907.70634262.7825625.60525274.6095707.9572815.5195971.8493192.1493423.91432011.635192.6494256.0539459.6443285.8276470.8974525.1734390.08837580.3343381.03865388.4484459.6922023.2253003.9496256.3125324.56529837.2353671.33892124.0993451.1791705.8613124.8194417.6194337.53622832.4565052.88957214.22810046.993686.9226827.1032237.8023720.17238786.175044.13455822.9946731.5163620.8684882.4964521.4425737.68836361.14吸引量32348.03235720.6145394.1420765.935982.331618.9829841.67231671.6重新计算和=34505/34262.78= 1.007069 =31874/32011.6=0.995702=37810/37580.33=1.006111 =29510/29837.23=0.989033=22445/22832.45=0.983031 =39214/3720.172=1.011032=36185/5737.688=0.995156 =32337/32348.032=0.999659=35789/35720.61=1.001915 =46257/45394.14=1.019008=20786/20765.9=1.000968 =36250/35982.3=1.00744=30581/31618.98=0.967172 =29543/29841.67=0.989992收敛判定由于和部分系数大于3%的误差，因此需要重新进行迭代生成交通量增长系数的倒数 =231671.6/231543=1.000555第二次近似：=* 4380.3762*1.007*0.999*1.000555=4412.284=5640.179*1.007*1.001*1.000555=5694.085=5537.167*1.007*1.019*1.000555=5686.249=3627.675*1.007*1.000*1.000555=3658.885=5701.192*1.007*1.007*1.000555=5787.421=6468.485*1.007*0.967*1.000555=6303.859=2907.706*1.007*0.9899*1.000555=2900.563=5625.6052*0.995*0.999*1.000555=5602.624=5274.609*0.995*1.001*1.000555=5264.917=5707.957*0.995*1.019*1.000555=5794.669=2815.519*0.995*1.000*1.000555=2807.689=5971.849*0.995*1.007*1.000555=5993.746=3129.149*0.995*0.967*1.000555=3075.794=3423.914*0.995*0.9899*1.000555=3376.952=5192.649*1.006*0.999*1.000555=5225.498=4256.053*1.006*1.001*1.000555=4292.643=9459.644*1.006*1.019*1.000555=9703.742=3285.827*1.006*1.000*1.000555=3310.943=6470.897*1.006*1.007*1.000555=6562.518=4525.173*1.006*0.967*1.000555=4405.81=4390.088*1.006*0.9899*1.000555=4375.138=3381.0386*0.989*0.999*1.000555=3344.674=5388.448*0.989*1.001*1.000555=5342.522=449.692*0.989*1.019*1.000555=4494.092=2023.225*0.989*1.000*1.000555=2004.085=3003.949*0.989*1.007*1.000555=2994.77=6256.312*0.989*0.967*1.000555=5987.891=5324.565*0.989*0.9899*1.000555=5216.36=3671.3389*0.983*0.999*1.000555=3609.812=2124.099*0.983*1.001*1.000555=2093.215=3451.179*0.983*1.019*1.000555=3459.021=1705.861*0.983*1.000*1.000555=1679.469=3124.819*0.983*1.007*1.000555=3096.365=4417.619*0.983*0.967*1.000555=4202.427=4337.536*0.983*0.9899*1.000555=4223.602=5052.8895*1.011*0.999*1.000555=5109.725=7214.228*1.011*1.001*1.000555=7311.839=10046.99*1.011*1.019*1.000555=10356.65=3686.922*1.011*1.000*1.000555=3733.275=6827.103*1.011*1.007*1.000555=6957.633=2237.802*1.011*0.967*1.000555=2189.431=3720.172*1.011*0.9899*1.000555=3725.637=5044.1345*0.995*0.999*1.000555=5020.774=5822.994*0.995*1.001*1.000555=5809.1076731.516*0.995*1.019*1.000555=6830.033620.868*0.995*1.000*1.000555=3608.8184882.496*0.995*1.007*1.000555=4897.7124521.442*0.995*0.967*1.000555=4354.2445737.668*0.9899*0.995*1.000555=5655.887计算后得表61234567发生量14412.2845694.0855686.2493658.8855787.4216303.8592900.56334443.3525602.6245264.9175794.6692807.6895993.7463075.7943376.95231916.3935225.4984292.6439703.7423310.9436562.5184405.814375.13837876.2943344.6745342.5224494.0922004.0852994.775987.8915216.3629384.3953609.8122093.2153459.0211679.4693096.3654202.4274223.60222363.9165109.7257311.83910356.653733.2756957.6332189.4313725.63739384.1975020.7745809.1076830.033608.8184897.7124354.2445655.88736176.57吸引量32325.3935808.3346324.4620803.1636290.1730519.4629474.14231545.1重新计算和=34505/34443.35=1.00179 =31874/31916.39=0.998672=37810/37876.29=0.99825 =29510/29384.39=1.004275=22445/22363.91= 1.003626=39214/39384.19=0.995679=36185/36176.57=1.000233 =32337/32325.39=1.000359=35789/35808.33=0.99946 =46257/46324.46=0.998544=20786/20803.16=0.999175 =36250/36290.17=0.998893=30581/30519.468=1.002016 =29543/29474.14=1.002336收敛判定，由于和各项系数误差均小于3%，因此不需要继续迭代。因此表6即为底特律法所求将来分布的交通量。三：交通方式划分 交通方式划分是四阶段预测中的第三阶段。对于交通方式划分的模型有logit模型、probit模型以及非集计模型，在本设计中根据要求我们采用logit模型方式进行计算。 logit模型：logit模型假设效益函数u（k）的随机项e（k）相互独立，且服从同一的干贝尔分布。用概率变量x表示e（k），作为参数，随机项的分布函数可表示如下：（x）=exp-exp（-x） ，（0，x为任意值）将上式通过数学推导可以建立下述logit模型： p（k）=即： （3-1） （3-2）=*+ （3-3）=*+ （3-4）其中 汽车和公共汽车的划分率； ，汽车和公共汽车的行驶时间，min； ，汽车和公共汽车的费用，元； ，未知常数。表七 公共汽车行驶时间（min）tijbus1234567130405050454050240304050504050350403040505060450504030405050545505040304040640405050403040750506050404030表八 小汽车行驶时间（min）tijcar1234567120273333302733227202733332733333272027333340433332720273333530333327202727627273333272027733334033272720表九 公共汽车票价（元）cijbus1234567110131717151317213101317171317317131013171720417171310131717515171713101313613131717131013717172017131310表十 小汽车行驶费用（元）cijcar1234567120273333302733227202733332733333272027333340433332720273333530333327202727627273333272027733334033272720表十一 logit模型中系数取值情况0.080.0360.022公共汽车的效用0.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*45+0.036*15=4.140.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*60+0.036*20=5.520.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*45+0.036*15=4.140.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.760.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*60+0.036*20=5.520.08*50+0.036*17=4.6120.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*40+0.036*13=3.6680.08*30+0.036*10=2.76小汽车的效用0.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*30+0.036*30+0.022=3.5020.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*40+0.036*40+0.022=4.6620.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*30+0.036*30+0.022=3.5020.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.3420.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*40+0.036*40+0.022=4.6620.08*33+0.036*33+0.022=3.850.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*27+0.036*27+0.022=3.1540.08*20+0.036*20+0.022=2.342则公共汽车与小汽车的效用如下表表十二 公共汽车的效用 1 2 3 4 5 6 712.763.6684.6124.6124.143.6684.61223.6682.763.6684.6124.6123.6684.61234.6133.6682.763.6684.6124.6125.5244.6124.6123.6682.763.6684.6124.61254.144.6124.6123.6682.763.6683.66863.6683.6684.6124.6123.6682.763.66874.6124.6125.524.6123.6683.6682.76表十三 小汽车的效用 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12.3423.1543.853.853.5023.1543.85 23.1542.3423.1543.853.853.1543.85 33.853.1542.3423.1543.853.854.662 43.853.853.1542.3423.1543.853.85 53.5023.853.853.1542.3423.1543.154 63.1543.1543.853.853.1542.3423.154 73.853.854.6623.853.1543.1542.342将表十二和十三中的值分别代入式3-1，再利用3-2可得表十四，十五0.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.6543010.6257440.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.6257440.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.7022430.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.6543010.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6257440.6257440.6257440.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.7022430.6817880.6257440.6257440.603005则公共汽车划分率如下表表十四 公共汽车的划分率 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.6543010.6257440.681788 20.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.6257440.681788 30.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.6817880.702243 40.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.6817880.681788 50.6543010.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.6257440.625744 60.6257440.6257440.6817880.6817880.6257440.6030050.625744 70.6817880.6817880.7022430.6817880.6257440.6257440.603005表十五 小汽车的划分率 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10.3969950.3742560.3182120.3182120.3456990.3742560.318212 20.3742560.3969950.3742560.3182120.3182120.3742560.318212 30.3182120.3742560.3969950.3742560.3182120.3182120.297757 40.3182120.3182120.3742560.3969950.3742560.3182120.318212 50.3456990.3182120.3182120.3742560.3969950.3742560.374256 60.3742560.3742560.3182120.3182120.3742560.3969950.374256 70.3182120.3182120.2977570.3182120.3742560.3742560.396995四：交通流分配 交通流分配是交通需求四阶段预测的最后阶段，根据设计要求我们使用全有全无分配法，和增量分配法分别对其进行分配，然后择其比较好的。 全有全无分配方法：全有全无方法，简称0-1分配法，是最简单的分配方法，该方法不考虑路网的拥挤效果，取路阻为常数，即假设车辆的路段行驶速度、交叉口延误不受路段、交叉口交通负荷的影响。每一个od点对的od交通量被全部分配在连接od点对的最短径路上，其他径路上分配不到交通量。 全有全无分配法算法思想是将od交通量t加载到路网的最短径路树上，从而得到路网中各路段流量的过程。 全有全无分配法的计算步骤： 步骤0 初始化，使路网中所有路段