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ccy,1-wk,-1.6,1.3,9.2,3.8,0.0,2.6,11.3,4.2,4.9,7.1,16.6,23.3,8.5,6.8,10.5,4.8,4.8,7.2,roe,ev/ebitda,2012e,(x),3.0,2.9,2.7,2.6,2.8,3.9,2.5,3.4,january 24, 2013 china: energy: gas equity research rising lng price in january; utilization rebounded; tariff pass-through in chengdu completed,asp continued to surge with tight gas,lng vehicles roll-out hastened in various cities,supply; utilization rebounded slightly,with a collective roll-out of lng vehicle plans in,gas sector share price performance share absolute share price,we estimate total capacity of lng liquefaction,dec/jan, we estimate c.76,000 vehicles will be in,ticker,company rating,price 23-jan-12,performance (%) 1-mo 3-mos ytd,plants increased to the current 22.1mn m3/day from,place by 2015, based on all the plans launched so far,0384.hk 0135.hk,china gas buy* kunlun buy,hkd hkd,6.88 16.7,11.1 3.7,64.2 20.5,12.8 3.2,21.9mn m3/day in early december, based on sci data. the industrys weighted average utilization has rebounded from a recent low in end-december (35%) to 47% now, as the gas supply shortage slightly eased following the recent temperature,(vs. 61,864 up to nov 2012). notably, beijing will add 3,100 lng buses in 2013; c.6,000 vehicles will be converted to lng vehicles and 1,500 lng trailers will be added in shenzhen by 2014; nanjing will also put 1,500 lng vehicles in operation by 2014. as lng,1193.hk cr gas neutral hkd 16.76 2688.hk enn energy neutral hkd 37.3 0392.hk behl neutral hkd 52.9 overall gas sector source: bloomberg, goldman sachs research estimates gas sector valuation comparison p/e (x) p/b (x) (%) company 2012e 2013e 2012e 2013e 2012e,increase. kunlun plants weighted average utilization edged up to 42% now vs. the december,vehicle is a key growth driver for buy-rated kunlun, these developments bode well for the company.,china gas * kunlun cr gas enn energy,22.4 19.3 20.4 21.2,17.7 17.3 18.4 18.5,13% 18% 16% 20%,10.5 9.9 10.3 10.8,average of 46%, as the bayan nuur plant resumed,behl,17.6 19.9,15.2 17.2,1.6 2.4,1.4 2.2,9% 13%,15.3 12.1,production. we expect it to further improve in the coming weeks as guangan plant has also resumed production. meanwhile, the industry asp further surged to rmb3.41/m3 in the week ended january 19, from rmb3.04/m3 in end-december as gas supply remained tight. looking ahead, we expect utilization to edge up gradually as temperature,tariff pass-through in chengdu completed the pass-through was completed in chengdu on december 31 with tariff for non-residential users lifted from rmb2.59/m3 to rmb2.86/m3 after sichuan announced city gate price unifying on december 7. it took cr gas roughly 3 weeks to complete the process. we believe cr gas (neutral-rated), as the,* the stock is on our conviction list * fiscal year-ended march, adjusted to reflect calendar year end. source: bloomberg, goldman sachs research estimates related research china gas holdings: proposed acquisition targets path to hk$400mn 2014 profit pledge, december 19, 2012 china gas holdings: first take: acquisition of fortune gas a strategic milestone, december 18, 2012,further trends up, which may lead to asp pressure, in our view. in the medium term, we project that 22.6mn m3/day additional capacity will be launched in the next 12-18 months, which we believe should limit further pricing and utilization increase. frank he +852-2978-7414 goldman sachs (asia) l.l.c. simon cheung, cfa +852-2978-6102 goldman sachs (asia) l.l.c. alex ye +852-2978-6666 goldman sachs (asia) l.l.c. janet lu +852-2978-1642 goldman sachs (asia) l.l.c. the goldman sachs group, inc.,largest player in sichuan, is set to benefit. we also saw more frequent downstream price adjustments lately, e.g., zhenjiang and xuzhou both lifted the residential gas tariff in december. we believe this signals further upstream price reform ahead. goldman sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. as a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. for reg ac certification and other important disclosures, see the disclosure appendix, or go to /research/hedge.html. analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with finra in the u.s. global investment research,jan09,mar09,may09,jul09,sep09,nov09,jan10,mar10,may10,jul10,sep10,nov10,jan11,mar11,may11,jul11,sep11,nov11,jan12,mar12,may12,jul12,sep12,nov12,sep10,sep11,mar11,may11,mar12,nov10,nov11,may12,sep12,jul10,jul11,jan11,jan12,jul12,jan08,mar08,may08,jul08,sep08,nov08,jan09,mar09,may09,jul09,sep09,nov09,jan10,mar10,may10,jul10,sep10,nov10,jan11,mar11,may11,jul11,sep11,nov11,jan12,mar12,may12,jul12,sep12,nov12,feb11,apr11,sep11,apr12,jun11,jul12,nov12,mar12,dec11,aug12,aug11,may12,may11,nov12,dec12,oct11,oct12,jan12,2,january 24, 2013 exhibit 1: imports accounted for 28% of total gas demand in november natural gas apparent demand breakdown by source,china: energy: gas exhibit 2: gas apparent demand in nov. grew 15.1% yoy, vs. 14.7% in 11m12 natural gas demand vs. power generation monthly growth and pmi,(bn cubic meters),30.0%,56.0%,16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0,35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%,25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%,55.0% 54.0% 53.0% 52.0% 51.0% 50.0% 49.0% 48.0% 47.0% 46.0% 45.0%,domestic production,import,% from import,natural gas demand (yoy) (lhs) pmi (rhs),power generation (yoy) (lhs),exhibit 3: average lng import prices stayed flat mom in december average import lng prices in china vs. brent,exhibit 4: ex-factory lng prices further rebounded to rmb3.41/m3 in january ex-factory lng prices and capacity utilization of domestic lng plants,(us$/bbl),(rmb/cum),(rmb/cum),140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 wti spot price (lhs) source: ceic, goldman sachs research.,lng import price (rhs),3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 ,3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 avg domestic lng exfactory price (lhs) source: sci, goldman sachs research.,80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% lng capacity utilization (rhs),goldman sachs global investment research,3,3,january 24, 2013,china: energy: gas,exhibit 5: the average utilization of lng liquefaction plants in china rebounded to 47% as of january 18, due mainly to a slight ease of the gas supply shortage as temperature went up; kunluns utilization edged up to 42% as well, as the bayan nuur plant resumed production; average selling prices further surged to rmb2.96/m3 for kunlun with prices up broadly across its plants utilization and average selling prices of lng liquefaction plants in china,plant utilization (%),average selling price (rmb per m3),project,province,capacity,week ending,week ending,000 m per day 9-nov 16-nov 23-nov 30-nov,7-dec 14-dec 21-dec 28-dec,4-jan 11-jan 18-jan,10-nov 17-nov 24-nov,1-dec,8-dec,15-dec,22-dec,29-dec,5-jan,12-jan,19-jan,guanghui kunlun borui china city natural gas kunlun geermu ningxia clean energy ningxia hanasi xinlianhai kunlun lanzhou yongjing saipu shitai hengtai shiyi hengtong xinsheng wante kunlun bayan nuur xianghuangqi green energy xingxing energy xinyuan jingbian xilan zhongyuan green energy yanchang group - nanniwan yanchang group - ganguyi huayou ansai qinshui xinao shanxi yigao liansheng huixin kunlun guangan datong guangyuan ph 1 chongqing minsheng huagang gas green energy hi-tech henan ancai sainty natural gas taian shenzhen natural gas suzhou huafeng lng jiangsu jiangyin cnooc gas & power kunlun shennan tiande tianji tianxiang jilin jixing qujing huaxin total - simple average total - weighted average kunlun - weighted average,xinjiang xinjiang qinghai qinghai ningxia ningxia gansu gansu gansu inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia inner mongolia shaanxi shaanxi shaanxi shaanxi shaanxi shanxi shanxi shanxi sichuan sichuan sichuan chongqing hebei henan henan tianjin shandong jiangsu jiangsu guangdong hainan jilin jilin jilin jilin yunnan,1500 300 450 350 600 3000 480 300 200 300 300 100 300 150 100 300 90 1000 300 500 1000 500 1000 2000 200 900 500 1000 1000 300 150 300 300 100 120 150 105 50 600 430 150 200 50 200 200 22,125 22,125 4,530,67% 50% 56% 71% 50% 33% 38% 50% 75% 90% 90% 100% 67% 93% 100% 100% 100% 90% 33% 80% 90% 80% 80% 100% 80% 78% 40% 70% 80% 67% 67% 83% 50% 80% 83% 80% 70% 100% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 69% 66% 80%,67% 50% 44% 71% 83% 43% 38% 50% 75% 90% 90% 100% 67% 93% 100% 100% 100% 40% 33% 80% 90% 80% 80% 75% 80% 78% 40% 50% 80% 60% 67% 50% 50% 80% 83% 80% 70% 60% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 64% 62% 69%,67% 50% 44% 57% 83% 33% 38% 33% 75% 80% 0% 100% 67% 100% 100% 83% 100% 90% 33% 80% 80% 80% 80% 75% 80% 78% 40% 50% 80% 60% 67% 60% 83% 80% 83% 80% 56% 0% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 63% 61% 67%,67% 50% 44% 57% 83% 33% 38% 33% 75% 90% 0% 100% 67% 100% 100% 83% 100% 90% 33% 80% 80% 80% 80% 75% 80% 78% 40% 50% 80% 60% 67% 60% 83% 80% 83% 80% 56% 0% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 57% 61% 67%,67% 50% 13% 57% 50% 27% 0% 33% 0% 90% 83% 100% 50% 100% 0% 83% 100% 70% 33% 60% 55% 80% 80% 75% 80% 67% 18% 50% 80% 50% 67% 30% 67% 80% 83% 47% 56% 40% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 54% 53% 66%,67% 50% 56% 86% 50% 27% 0% 33% 0% 33% 50% 50% 17% 67% 0% 60% 67% 60% 33% 60% 45% 80% 80% 75% 80% 67% 18% 45% 70% 33% 67% 30% 67% 80% 83% 0% 56% 80% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 49% 50% 62%,67% 50% 56% 86% 50% 3% 0% 33% 0% 67% 50% 50% 17% 80% 0% 83% 67% 60% 33% 60% 45% 80% 50% 60% 80% 61% 18% 45% 70% 33% 67% 67% 67% 80% 83% 0% 56% 80% 0% 0% 71% 50% 100% 80% n.a. 47% 45% 57%,87% 50% 33% 86% 50% 7% 0% 33% 0% 67% 50% 50% 17% 20% 0% 0% 67% 60% 20% 60% 30% 80% 50% 15% 80% 61% 18% 45% 70% 0% 67% 67% 67% 80% 83% 33% 22% 0% 0% 0% 71% 35% 0% 50% n.a. 35% 39% 33%,87% 50% 33% 86% 50% 7% 0% 30% 0% 67% 67% 0% 0% 80% 0% 0% 44% 60% 0% 60% 30% 80% 50% 15% 60% 61% 18% 45% 0% 0% 67% 67% 50% 80% 83% 67% 0% 40% 0% 0% 33% 35% 0% 50% n.a. 37% 35% 19%,67% 17% 0% 86% 50% 23% 0% 30% 0% 50% 67% 0% 0% 67% 0% 0% 33% 60% 0% 60% 60% 0% 90% 60% 60% 61% 18% 60% 0% 0% 67% 33% 50% 80% 83% 67% 0% 60% 0% 0% 33% 30% 80% 80% n.a. 42% 40% 36%,67% 0% 0% 86% 50% 33% 0% 30% 0% 67% 83% 20% 17% 93% 0% 100% 50% 60% 10% 60% 60% 80% 90% 60% 60% 61% 18% 15% 0% 0% 67% 80% 50% 80% 83% 67% 22% 60% 0% 0% 71% 30% 80% 80% n.a. 47% 45% 42%,2.41 1.83 2.21 1.94 2.27 2.25 2.27 2.38 2.31 2.33 2.54 2.46 2.56 2.28 2.53 2.45 2.75 2.38 2.62 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.35 2.30 n.a. 2.66 2.66 2.80 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.75 2.89 3.07 2.91 3.50 3.36 n.a. n.a. 3.24 3.34 3.21 3.37 n.a. 2.64 2.52 2.43,2.41 1.83 2.21 1.94 2.27 2.25 2.27 2.38 2.31 2.33 2.54 2.45 2.53 2.28 2.53 2.45 2.75 2.38 2.61 2.36 2.36 2.32 2.32 2.30 n.a. 2.66 2.66 2.78 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.98 2.75 2.90 3.09 2.91 3.50 3.36 n.a. n.a. 3.24 3.36 3.21 3.37 n.a. 2.63 2.51 2.45,2.41 1.83 2.21 1.94 2.27 2.25 2.27 2.38 2.31 2.33 2.54 2.45 2.53 2.28 2.53 2.45 2.75 2.38 2.61 2.36 2.36 2.28 2.28 2.30 n.a. 2.66 2.66 2.76 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.98 2.77 2.93 3.20 2.91 3.50 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.24 3.36 3.21 3.37 n.a. 2.62 2.51 2.46,2.41 1.83 2.21 1.94 2.28 2.27 2.28 2.38 2.31 2.34 2.54 2.45 2.53 2.28 2.53 2.45 2.75 2.40 2.61 2.37 2.37 2.29 2.29 2.41 n.a. 2.67 2.67 2.74 2.98 2.97 2.97 3.03 2.79 2.95 3.23 3.06 3.51 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.24 3.36 3.21 3.38 n.a. 2.63 2.54 2.53,2.41 1.83 2.21 1.94 2.32 2.42 2.36 2.38 n.a. 2.46 2.54 2.47 2.55 2.28 n.a. 2.46 2.75 2.55 2.63 2.45 2.45 2.52 2.52 2.49 n.a. 2.82 2.76 2.74 3.15 3.05 3.02 3.04 2.96 3.07 3.38 3.14 3.59 3.50 n.a. n.a. 3.31 3.43 3.29 3.42 n.a. 2.73 2.62 2.61,2.41 1.83 2.35 2.03 2.43 2.52 2.50 2.38 n.a. 2.65 2.54 2.56 2.72 2.40 n.a. 2.60 2.91 2.84 2.79 2.53 2.53 2.70 2.70 2.57 n.a. 3.11 2.93 3.00 3.27 3.20 3.02 3.04 3.16 3.26 3.58 3.28 3.69 3.56 n.a. n.a. 3.35 3.43 3.32 3.44 n.a. 2.85 2.72 2.64,2.41 1.83 2.54 2.28 2.47 2.52 2.54 2.38 n.a. 2.80 2.73 2.66 2.90 2.53 n.a. 2.68 3.05 2.96 2.99 2.71 2.71 2.70 2.70 2.68 n.a. 3.16 3.11 3.13 3.36 3.42 3.14 3.14 3.25 3.34 3.64 3.42 3.73 3.71 n.a. n.a. 3.53 3.53 3.50 3.54 n.a. 2.96 2.84 2.77,2.41 1.84 2.54 2.34 2.47 2.52 2.54 2.38 n.a. 2.88 2.78 2.69 3.10 2.55 n.a. 2.69 3.20 3.03 3.01 2.92 2.92 2.70 2.70 2.70 n.a. 3.16 3.20 3.32 3.37 3.46 3.40 3.33 3.47 3.54 3.82 3.60 3.73 3.71 n.a. n.a. 3.60 3.57 3.57 3.84 n.a. 3.04 2.89 2.88,2.41 1.84 n.a. 2.49 2.66 2.66 2.81 2.72 n.a. 2.98 3.04 n.a. 3.13 2.74 n.a. 2.90 3.43 3.45 3.22 3.08 3.08 2.89 2.89 2.97 n.a. 3.36 3.33 3.75 3.37 3.46 3.76 3.47 3.55 3.64 3.99 3.80 n.a. 3.96 n.a. n.a. 3.60 3.57 3.57 4.03 3.36 3.22 2.96 2.70,2.41 1.84 n.a. 2.54 2.94 2.92 2.81 2.72 n.a. 2.98 3.10 n.a. n.a. 2.87 n.a. 2.93 3.55 3.45 n.a. 3.08 3.08 2.97 2.97 2.97 n.a. 3.57 3.33 3.88 n.a. n.a. 3.76 3.64 3.55 3.68 4.34 3.80 n.a. 3.96 n.a. n.a. 4.32 4.29 4.29 4.16 3.36 3.33 3.14 2.91,2.41 1.84 n.a. 2.66 2.94 2.93 n.a. 2.82 n.a. 2.98 3.10 n.a. n.a. 2.92 n.a. 2.97 3.55 3.45 n.a. 3.08 3.08 n.a. n.a. 2.97 n.a. 3.57 3.33 3.88 n.a. n.a. 3.76 3.64 3.55 3.71 4.34 3.80 4.08 3.96 n.a. n.a. 4.32 4.29 4.29 4.16 3.36 3.41 3.14 2.96,source: sci, goldman sachs research. goldman sachs global investment research,-,-,-,9,4,january 24, 2013 exhibit 6: lng import volumes and prices on average have increased 20% and 24% ytd (up to november) respectively lng import volumes and prices by receiving terminals and country lng import volume (tonnes),lng import volume yoy,china: energy: gas,terminal,jan-12,feb-12,mar-12,apr-12,may-12,jun-12,jul-12,aug-12,sep-12,oct-12,nov-12,ytd,jan-12 feb-12 mar-12 apr-12 may-12 jun-12 jul-12 aug-12 sep-12 oct-12 nov-12 ytd,shenzhen-dapeng,415,125,349,302,552,027,415,046,479,606,625,655,434,663,635,307,508,318,518,071,352,155,5,285,273,-7%,-13%,8%,-16%,-19%,16%,-34%,10%,-23%,8%,-39% -11%,fujian- putian,243,443,190,314,182,458,240,851,182,529,242,778,307,712,271,584,187,953,303,039,181,594,2,534,256,101%,52%,52%,-1%,40%,-17%,4%,-25%,-24%,67%,-25%,7%,shanghai,111,698,180,158,164,649,59,760,249,618,117,028,246,330,66,260,250,302,177,810,143,567,1,767,179,-55%,36%,-20%,-46%,39%,-16%,43%,16% 281%,37%,-18%,9%,jiangsu-rudong,407,550,112,618,113,014,227,203,113,970,113,314,228,082,225,628,114,441,176,464,1,832,284,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,79%,61% 288%,n/a,26%,81%,-26%,n/a,dalian,125,435,114,384,114,131,113,766,112,539,114,568,113,977,112,932,114,730,228,601,1,265,063,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a 263%,n/a,ningbo,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,93,819,93,639,-,187,457,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,total,1,303,252,832,392 1,126,532 1,056,991 1,139,489 1,211,314 1,331,355 1,087,128 1,378,951 1,321,729 1,082,381 12,871,513,60%,26%,34%,24%,18%,16%,13%,4%,20%,55%,-16% 20%,terminal,average lng import price (us$/tonne),average lng import price yoy,shenzhen-dapeng,466,373,505,349,437,633,628,518,543,328,367,479,46%,6%,12%,-35%,3%,38%,35%,11%,-4%,-24%,-30%,4%,fujian- putian,222,467,207,218,228,202,279,494,503,206,217,292,6%,22%,-7%,-31%,-54%,-33%,-15%,-5%,32%,2%,4% -14%,shanghai jiangsu-rudong dalian,406 937 870,404 961 n/a,403 965 966,405 985 984,411 1,005 1,006,410 1,050 1,044,431 1,067 1,066,451 1,051,455 981 980,436 920 920,459 886 924,426 973 975,22% n/a n/a,-23% n/a n/a,-20% n/a n/a,18% n/a n/a,15% 31% n/a,5% 46% n/a,14% 42% n/a,16% n/a n/a,-4% 25% n/a,-2% 10% n/a,5% -4% -1%,3% n/a n/a,ningbo,982,921,-,952,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,total,602,481,535,528,511,602,624,564,659,459,556,561,96%,23%,24%,18%,15%,42%,44%,14%,19%,11%,2% 24%,country,lng import volume (tonnes),lng import volume yoy,qatar,498,284,202,704,320,198,431,709,320,697,409,033,525,541,387,480,612,542,322,810,435,888,4,466,884,708%,118%,75%,136%,105% 151%,n/a 113%,124%,110%,21% 147%,australia,259,378,259,216,260,213,324,671,323,724,259,168,255,135,388,873,259,620,388,662,259,415,3,238,077,33%,-1%,-2%,26%,0%,-20%,-21%,20%,-20%,19%,-20%,0%,indonesia,243,443,125,151,182,458,240,851,182,529,242,778,242,693,239,519,60,542,303,039,181,594,2,244,598,101%,110%,52%,33%,201%,0%,4%,32%,-67%,67%,-25% 24%,malaysia,111,698,180,158,113,661,59,751,249,618,117,028,185,162,8,306,250,284,177,810,143,567,1,597,043,-41%,n/a,-21%,-46%,39%,-35%,-19%,-85%,104%,37%,-18%,5%,others,190,448,65,163,250,001,62,920,183,308,122,823,62,949,195,964,129,408,61,917,1,324,909,-23%,-74%,94%,-100%,-75%,39%,-69%,-79%,-20%,108%,-68% -43%,total,1,303,252,832,392,1,126,532,1,056,991,1,139,488,1,211,314 1,331,355 1,087,127,1,378,951,1,321,729,1,082,381,12,871,513,60%,26%,34%,24%,18%,16%,13%,4%,20%,55%,-16% 20%,country,average lng import price (us$/tonne),average lng import price yoy,qatar australia indonesia malaysia others total,938 172 222 406 920 603,960 169 215 404 952 481,966 168 207 402 663 535,985 171 218 405 1,395 528,1,000 173 228 411 983 511,1,038 187 202 410 871 602,1,063 236 202 437 667 624,1,059 174 262 619 1,063 564,981 174 203 455 694 659,920 169 206 436 804 459,919 169 217 459 847 556,987 177 217 427 805 561,152% 2% 6% 22% 114% 96%,40% 1% -1% n/a 70% 23%,32% -6% -7% -15% 1% 24%,28% -38% 0% 17% 80% 18%,28% -3% 2% 15% 42% 15%,27% -4% -3% -22% 16% 42%,n/a 34% -3% -14% -9% 44%,9% 3% 25% 60% 42% 14%,-1% 3% -3% -26% -13% 19%,0% 0% 2% -2% -19% 11%,-5% 0% 4% 5% -6% 2%,15% -3% 3% -4% 14% 24%,source: sci, goldman sachs research. goldman sachs global investment research,5,january 24, 2013,exhibit 7: the development of lng stations and vehicles is on track with our expectations recent development progress of lng stations and vehicles in china,china: energy: gas,date 14-jan-13 10-jan-13 7-jan-13 4-jan-13 31-dec-12 24-dec-12 18-dec-12 18-dec-12 17-dec-12 11-dec-12 7-dec-12 7-dec-12 29-nov-12 28-nov-12 21-nov-12 12-nov-12 12-nov-12 12-nov-12 7-nov-12 6-nov-12 5-nov-12 2-nov-12 30-oct-12 19-oct-12 19-oct-12,city guangdong - shenzhen beijing liaoning-dalian jiangsu - nanjing jiangsu - suzhou

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