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,高盛国际,2013 年 2 月 22 日 欧洲,策略焦点,证券研究报告,支出的回报正在上升 资本开支预期增幅最高的一类企业在过去几个月中表现领先。这与 2011 年和 2012 年初的情形形成了对 比:当时将资金用于投资的企业表现并不突出,有的企业甚至因财务实力被削弱而处于不利局面。在我们 看来,此类投资回报是鼓励企业使用超额现金并提升资本开支的关键,这对于仍处历史低点的并购活动也 同样适用。我们的资本开支受益组合(gsstcapx)也已开始领先。,最近几年企业投资不足 大多数板块的资本开支/销售比和资本开支/现金流比都较低。在避险情绪高涨的驱 使下,企业管理层纷纷倾向于保存现金,而且欧洲增长乏力和不确定性令投资面 临格外高的风险。我们认为这些因素将在未来几年随着股市风险溢价的下滑和全 球增长的改善而消退。,sharon bell, cfa +44(20)7552-1341 彼得欧品海默 +44(20)7552-5782 ,高盛国际 资源:投资将流向何方,石油与采矿占资本开支的比重从 90 年代的 10%上升到了目前接近 30%的水平。 我们预计这一不平衡状态将得到调整。随着大宗商品超级周期的消退、加之现金 和财务力量有限,尤其是在石油业,我们预计对大宗商品的相关投资将下降,而 对资本开支/现金流比依然较低的其它领域的投资将上升。 企业拥有现金但他们会用于投资吗?,christian mueller-glissmann, cfa +44(20)7774-1714 christian.mueller- 高盛国际 anders nielsen +44(20)7552-3000 ,average capex to,current as a % of,高盛国际,sector oil & gas utilities auto & parts con & mat travel & leis retail,capex cost high in utilites and oil,capex to fcf (%) 47 46 43 42 41 40,fcf since 1995 (%) 44 47 50 44 48 48,average 107 98 85 96 85 82,matthieu walterspiler +44(20)7552-3403 高盛国际,basic resource chemicals telecom inds gds & svs food & bev technology pers & h/h gds media health care market ex resoruces,37 33 33 33 27 25 23 22 17 31,capex to cash flow low in most sectors,40 40 39 40 30 30 27 32 27 36,92 82 85 81 90 81 85 68 64 86,资料来源:worldscope、datastream、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本 报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅 /research/hedge.html。 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 finra 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,2,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲,the reward for spending is rising after many years of caution and concern about taking risks there is some evidence that investors are starting to reward corporates for investing their money rather than retaining it on their balance sheets. exhibit 1 shows the average stock price performance since the summer of last year broken up into different bands depending on estimated capex growth (based on consensus 2013 figures). the companies in the highest categories have generally outperformed those with the lowest capex projections. exhibit 1: since july there has been a tendency for investors to reward more capex. bands based on consensus 2013 capex growth estimates for stoxx europe constituents,26.0 24.0 22.0,performance since july 2012 (%),22.0,21.7,22.1,23.9,20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0,13.1,19.5,16.5,-20,-20 to -10,-10 to 0,0 to 5,5 to 10,10 to 20,20 to 100,capex growth (%) , 2013 source: i/b/e/s, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. this is in stark contrast to 2011 when there was no obvious reward for investment activity; and the companies expected to grow capex the most were some of the weakest performers. exhibit 2: .in contrast to 2011 when there was no obvious reward to investment bands based on consensus 2013 capex growth estimates for stoxx europe constituents 0 -5 -5.5,-10,-11.2,-10.0,-15 -20,-14.7,-13.0,-13.6,2011 performance (%),-20.2 -25,-20,-20 to -10,-10 to 0,0 to 5,5 to 10,10 to 20,20 to 50,capex growth (%) , 2012 source: i/b/e/s, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲 this reluctance up until recently for the market to clearly reward investment combined with low end demand growth and a difficult environment for financing has pushed capex to sales ratios down and although they have risen over the last two years they remain very low (exhibit 3). the same is true for m whether companies choose to grow organically or via acquisition they are making decisions about growth, risks and financing which are very similar. exhibit 3: companies have been reluctant to use cash for growth either organically or via acquisitions capex to sales for europe ex financials,9.5%,5.0%,9.0% 8.5% 8.0%,capex to sales:,m&a as a % of mcap (rhs) capex to sales,4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%,2.5%,7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0%,2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%,q1 1995 q1 1997 q1 1999 q1 2001 q1 2003 q1 2005 q1 2007 q1 2009 q1 2011 source: worldscope, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. we see three potential barriers to greater investment by corporates: (i) risk appetite by managements, (ii) financing availability and costs, and (iii) a lack of demand for the end product. we think that all three of these will ease through 2013 and continue to get progressively easier beyond that. however, we do not forecast a capex boom over the next year. the improvements we foresee are likely to be slight and the shifts in the way companies spend their cash very cautious given the continued slow pace of growth (especially in europe) and low appetite for risk. we do however believe that bottom-up analysts are too cautious in their forecasts for capex, which on average stand at just 1% year-on-year for 2013. 1) financing: boom in debt markets bank lending activity has historically had a good relationship with capex but in recent years capex to sales has stabilized albeit at low levels while bank lending has continued to fall (exhibit 4). 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,-20,4,2013 年 2 月 22 日,exhibit 4: capex growth has been modest but far outpaced loan growth. capex to sales ex financials,欧洲,16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0,9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0,-2.0 -4.0,bank lending growth to non-financial corporates, advanced one year capex to sales (rhs),5.5 5.0,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,13,source: haver, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. partly companies have benefited from strong cash flows generated organically by their businesses which have enabled them to continue to invest without recourse to external financing. but the availability of external funding via the debt markets, where yields are historically low, has also enabled companies to invest and we think this will be a major factor supporting investment activity in the next few years. exhibit 5: .corporates benefiting from low yields and a boom in debt issuance euro area non-financial corporate 12m rolling issuance of long term debt and equity 180,160 140 120,debt issuance equity issuance equity boom,debt boom,100 80 60 40 20 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 source: ecb, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. over the last 12 months in the euro area alone net debt issuance has amounted to 100 bn. at the peak of the tech bubble in 1999-2000 when companies were financing via equity (which as a form of finance was historically cheap at the time) the peak over 12 months was 120 bn of net equity issuance. in other words the debt-issuance boom over the last year is comparable with the 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲 equity supply boom seen in the 1999-2000 period. as an aside this was a great time for equity issuers but it was a very bad time for equity investors as returns over the subsequent decade were negative. we discussed this in goal - global strategy paper: no. 4 - the long good buy; the case for equities, march 20, 2012. equity market investors have increasingly recognized the benefits of relatively cheap debt issuance. the correlation between the amount of debt issued and equity market performance over the last two years has been +40% i.e. increased debt funding has been good on average for equities. exhibit 6: cost of debt remains very attractive,12 10 8 6 4 2 0,cost of equity cost of debt difference (rhs),8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,source: datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. corporate yields remain low and the gap between the cost of equity and the cost of debt funding remains historically high (exhibit 6). this reward for debt financing can also been seen in the performance of our financial leverage basket which has outperformed stoxx europe 600 by 3% over the last 6 months. 2) risk appetite: still a hurdle but becoming less so the propensity of companies to retain cash on their balance sheet is highly correlated with the equity risk premium (exhibit 6). the sharp rise in the erp since 2007 has coincided with a move up in the amount of cash companies keep on their balance sheet. it is not surprising the two are linked; when the risk premium is high investors are nervous about equities and prefer companies with higher cash balances, also a higher risk premium is associated with lower growth and this will mean companies are less willing or able to spend their cash productively. we believe that over the medium term the risk premium will gradually normalize as europe creates better structures for debt sustainability and bank supervision, and as global growth improves (see strategy matters: why the risk premium could unlock so much value, january 7, 2013). it has already fallen since the summer of last year and this should mean more willingness to put cash to use by corporate. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1,6,2013 年 2 月 22 日,exhibit 7: heightened risk aversion has lead to companies hoarding cash,欧洲,13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5,9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2,9.0 8.5 8.0,cash to asset ratio,market implied erp (rhs, %),0 -1,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,source: ecb, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. 3) global demand improving global demand is still lacklustre although it is improving and we would expect coincident with that improvement to see companies starting to invest more for growth. in exhibit 8 we plot capex growth estimates from the consensus for the stoxx europe index with the month-on-month change in our global leader indicator (gli). exhibit 8: as global growth recovers expect capex to pick-up,2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1,6 5 4 3 2 1,-1.5 -2 -2.5 -3,gli momentum stoxx europe: average fy2 capex growth estimate (rhs),0 -1 -2 -3,dec-06,dec-07,dec-08,dec-09,dec-10,dec-11,dec-12,source: i/b/e/s, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. the gli is designed to anticipate moves in the global industrial cycle and consistent with that it seems to slightly lead the european capex cycle for companies. in recent months gli momentum has improved modestly and we would expect to see analysts revising up their estimates for the 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲 amount of capital spending over this next year. albeit that given the continued weak pace of recovery, especially in europe, the rise in investment spend is still likely to be muted. our us economists also expect a rise in investment spending in 2013 and beyond after weakness in 2012 (see us economics analyst: 13/07 - brighter prospects for capital spending, february 15, 2013). their model points to a robust investment growth rate of about 9%-10% for 2013-2014, contributing about one percentage point to gdp growth. the strength is driven by a high profit rate, easier credit conditions, and the low base level of investment. resources vs. the rest of the market: the spend and the spend nots resources companies both oil and mining have dominated capex in europe in recent years. exhibit 9 shows the proportion of european capital spending done by oil and basic resources companies. this has risen from around 10% in the 1990s to over 25% currently. capital projects clearly take a long time to plan and pursue so we would not expect a relationship between changes in capex and changes in commodity prices over short periods (such as a year or two) but over time the super-cycle in commodity demand and prices has driven the boom in investment. exhibit 9: the commodity super cycle has driven the need for capex in resources sectors,30,1000 900,25 20 15 10 5,proportion of european capex by resources sectors (%) s&p gsci commodity index (rhs),800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0,90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 source: worldscope, datastream. exhibit 10 shows capex to sales for the market split into resources sectors and the market ex resources. in the case of the latter the ratio has been low and flat for three years whereas for the resources companies capex has been more volatile but generally on a rising trend over the last decade. the dynamics of these two parts of the market are likely to remain very different. for resources and particularly for the big oil majors we expect capex growth to peak in 2013 and although capex may still grow slightly over the next few years the pace is likely to be muted. our oil analysts have argued that weak free cash flow means that they have insufficient funds to both pay dividends and grow their capital spending over the next few years. for a recent piece on this topic see europe: energy: oil integrated: another tough year for integrated oils: eni and bg better positioned, january 11, 2013. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,13,12,80,8,2013 年 2 月 22 日,exhibit 10: a sharp divergence in spending by resources and non-resources sectors capex to sales (%),欧洲,11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4,capex to sales:,resources non resources,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,source: worldscope, datastream. the mining companies too have suffered in recent years under the weight of their capex requirements. indeed company managements have increasingly been put under pressure by shareholders to restrain spending. however although promises of spending cuts have been made we are doubtful that these will be delivered. projects have a tendency to overrun on costs and analysts (and companies) consistently underestimate the true amount of spend. exhibit 11: consensus underestimates mining capex; in particular in times of economic recovery consensus expectation of the big five miners capex big- 5 miners capex ($bn) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0,jan-09,jul-09,jan-10,jul-10,jan-11,jul-11,jan-12,jul-12,jan-13,fy11,fy12,fy13,fy14,source: i/b/e/s consensus, goldman sachs research. our capital goods analysts have noted that the consensus has been expecting the next years mining capex to fall for the better part of the last decade, so far it has only happened once, in 2009, and over the decade capex has increased 7x. they argue this systematic forecasting error is partly due to mining majors persistent cost overruns and partly due to analysts failure to 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,9,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲 incorporate new projects. this forecasting error has been particularly high in times of high or accelerating gdp growth. see europe: capital goods: multiple reasons to remain positive; we prefer global growth, january 17, 2013. as a notable example anglo american plc recently reported a c.$5 bn write-down on its minas rio (brazilian iron ore) project. the company press release expressly stated the issues behind the write-down as increased capex. although we would expect the investment activity of the rest of the market to pick-up over the next one to two years clearly the activity of the resources companies will remain crucial and this is likely to be constrained especially for the oil majors where cash flow is a consideration. most sectors are spending well below average on investment we show in the table below capex to cash flow for all the sectors and comparisons with their averages since 1995. oil is the only sector where capex to free cash flow (pre-capex) is both high in comparison to other sectors and is above its own historical average. utilities is not far behind they spend almost as much of their cash flow on capex as the oil sector and their current spending is only slightly below the long term average. for most sectors though capex represents a much lower proportion of cash flow usage than in the past and we would expect this to change as global growth picks-up. exhibit 12: capex to cash flow is low for most sectors oil and utilities are exceptions capex to fcf (before capex),average capex to,current as a % of,sector,capex to fcf (%),fcf since 1995 (%),average,oil & gas utilities auto & parts con & mat travel & leis retail,capex cost high in utilites and oil,46.6 46.2 42.6 42.4 41.2 39.5,43.6 47.3 49.9 43.9 48.3 48.2,106.7 97.6 85.4 96.4 85.3 81.9,basic resource chemicals telecom inds gds & svs food & bev technology pers & h/h gds media health care europe (ex financials) market ex resoruces,37.1 32.9 32.8 32.7 27.1 24.6 22.7 22.0 17.4 39.9 30.5,capex to cash flow low in most sectors,40.4 40.4 38.7 40.3 30.1 30.5 26.5 32.3 27.0 41.3 35.6,91.8 81.6 84.8 81.1 90.2 80.8 85.5 68.2 64.4 96.8 85.8,source: worldscope, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. companies focus on em for investment we expect european growth to remain muted, our economists forecast euro area gdp to contract by 0.4% in 2013 and expand by a mere 0.9% in 2014 will this prevent a pick-up in spending? we think not as in our view the main driver is global growth and demand. a rising proportion of capex by european companies has been going into asia and emerging markets and 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,10,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲 we expect this to continue (exhibit 13). the recent rise in the euro in many ways increases this imperative as companies see the advantage of matching their costs and sales in the same location. exhibit 13: a large proportion of capex by european companies goes into growth regions 30%,25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%,capex in em,capex in asian region,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,source: worldscope, datastream, goldman sachs global ecs research. capex-geared stocks: expect long term outperformance we do not believe that a pick-up in capex has been priced. our capex basket (gsstcapx) includes european companies where their sales growth is highly correlated with global investment spending growth. this basket has outperformed since the summer but it has lagged behind other cyclically-geared baskets. our financial leverage (gsstfnlv) and operational leverage (gsstoplv) baskets have outperformed since the summer 2012 as investors become less risk averse and moved into more cyclical sectors as their confidence in growth rose. we would expect capex to be a little later in the cycle given that it takes time for managements to regain confidence and equally time for them to implement new investment plans of cou
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