东盟经济共同体对泰国香米的影响研究.docx

东盟经济共同体对泰国香米的影响研究 摘 要：泰国是世界上重要的大米生产国和出口国，但它已经失去了东盟大米市场冠军的地位，越南现在拥有最大的市场份额。不幸的是，虽然越南目前控制着东盟的大米市场，100%的农户都不明白AEC协议。泰国必须尽快了解这一点，并寻求更卓有成效的方法来使用协议。在东盟经济共同体成立一年之后，泰国在东盟市场的地位已经达到最高，出口增长率为39.5%。 关键词：泰国；东盟经济共同体 AEC；泰国香米 中图分类号：F74 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673-291X（2015）01-0259-07 1.What is AEC AEC stands for ASEAN Economic Community which comprises 10 nations in Southeast A into a single market and production base with a highly competitive advantage to make it a stable and prosperous regussalam，Cambodia，Indonesia，Laos，Malaysia，Myanmar，The Philippines，Thailand，Singapore and Vieters of the 10 ASEAN member countries agreed to hasten the establishment of the AEC by 2015.The ASEAN Leaders adopted the ASEAN Economic Blueprint at the 13th ASEAN Summit on 20 November 2007 in Singapore to serve as a master pingle Market and Production Base which shall comprise five core elements as follows： （1）Free flow of goods；（2）Free flow of services；（3）Free flow of investment；（4）Freer flow of capital；（5）Free flow of skilled labC blueprint： （1）Competition Policy；（2）Consumer Protection；（3）Intellectual Property Rights；（4）Infrastructure Development；（5）Taxation；（6）E-Commerise：SME Development；Initiative for ASEAN Integration D.Integration into the Global Economy comprising： （1）Cooperative Approach towards External Economic Relations；（2）Enhance Participation in Global Supply Netwoction and action plans many of which have timelicompleted，but most are underway and have to be ready by 2015. 2.AEC in Thailand The implementation of the Asian Economic Community in 2015 comes with both huge advantages and some serious challenges for many of the countries involan for other members due to the countrys unique history and lack of colonization leaving it with systems and processes that are more greatly removed from the rest of the community meaning a greater need to change and adapt for Thai people and businesnd with them all the people and businesses affected，the only way to truly take advantage of the benefits of the new systems and the greater flow of people，information，trade and business that will come is by being fully prepared in advaings - firstly，to find useful information and articles about AEC and related news and bring it to you via links or articof the changes they will have to deal with，especially in the area of language and the use of English in dealing with other members of the EC and do not have any secret information or advantage in this process，but we hope that with your help and contributions we can all feel a little bit more prepared for 2015. What is AEC：by Thailand Exhibition and Convention Bureau Thai & ASEAN Community The 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations （ASEAN） aims to create an ASEAN Economic Community （AEC） by 2020.The AEC would have a combined population of over 575 million and total trade exceeding US$ 1，400 bill20 aims to create a stable，prosperous and highly competitive ASEAN economic region，in which there is a free flow of goods，services，investment and capital，equitable economic development and reduced poverty and socio-economic disparities by 2020. Free Trade Area Underpinning the AEC is the ASEAN Free Trade Area （AFTA），a preferential tariff scheme to promote the free flow of goods within ASEAN that are manufactured locally within any ASEAN counrehensive Investment Area （ACIA） will encourage the free flow of investment within AS up for investment，with exclusions to be phased out according to schedules o National treatment is granted immediately to ASEAN investors with few exclusions o Elimination of investment impediments o Streamlining of investment process and procedures o Enhancing transparency o Undertaking investment facilitation measures Full realization of the ACIA with the removal of temporary exclusion lists in manufacturing，agriculture，fisheries，forestry and mining is scheduled by 2010 for most ASEAN members and by 2015 for Cambodia，Lao PDR，Myanmar and Vieters are negotiating intra-regional services liberalization in several sectors，including air transport，business services，construction，financial services，maritime transport，telecommunications and tourtion Market （SAM） will introduce an open-sky arrangement to the region by 2015.The ASEAN SAM will be expected to fully liberalize air travel between its member states，allowing ASEAN to benefit from the growth in air travel around the world，and encouraging tourism，trade，investment and services flows between member staSEAN has concluded free trade agreements with China，Korea，and Japan，and is negotiating FTAs with India，Australia/New Zealand，and the European Un ASEAN but needs to overcome diplomatic objections from Chio-Cultural Community envisages Southeast Asia bonded together in partnership as a strong community of caring societies and aimed at the vigorous development of regional identity and the preservation of the regions cultural heritward，Association of Southeast Asian Institutions of Higher Learning，Heritage Parks，Scholarship and University Netw integration，ASEAN will encourage investment in education，training，science and technology development，job creation，and social protectalth，especially the prevention and control of infectious and communicable disea food for domestic consumption and is also Thailands principal source of foreign inc011 reveals that Thai rice exports in 2010 had a value of US$5，399 million；Thailand had 47.41% of the world market share of global rice expoan 3.7 million households out of a total of 5.6 million agricultural households，which constitutes 66% of the total number of Thai agricultural househohe main export of Thailands neighboring countries in ASEAN，for example Myanmar，Vietnam，Singapore and Camboy of producing rice of Vietnam which is the strongest competitor in the ASEAN marher than Vietnams share of 48.4%.But in 2010 it was found the Thai share of the ASEAN market had decreased sharply to only 29.8%，while Vietnams market share had risen to 70.0% （as shown in the Chart 1）. 4.The impact of AEC on Thai rice According to the agreements of the ASEAN Economic Community （AEC） in 2010，Thailand，Indonesia，Malaysia，Singapore，Philippines and Brunei had to decrease their goods taxes to zam，Myanmar，Cambodia and Laos will also have to decrease their goods taxes to zill be totally eliminated by 2015 （UTCC，2011）. UTCC （2011） indicates that Thailand faces a serious obstacle and may receive fewer benefits from the AEC agreemeuse the agreements more fruitfuing of Thai farmers and millers revealed that fully 100% of the farmers surveyed neither know about nor understand what the AEC agreements about AEC，but only 10% of them said they understood what it mey，since if entrepreneurs lack understanding of AEC，it will be very difficult to comply with the agreemef rice customs duty to zero will impact to the Thai economy，rice export growth rate of Thailand，and Thai famers household income as the following； The rice customs duty decreases impact on Thai Economy An analysis and comparison of the impact of the customs duty decrease in the ASEAN Free Trade Area between Thailand and Vietnam by using the GTAP Model has the following resu 0，it is anticipated that the GDP of Thailand will increase 0.02%.However，when compared to Vietnam，it is seen that the total GDP of Vietnam can grow up to 0.2%，which is much higher than Thailands GDP groegories of paddy and rice，it is found that the customs duty decrease to 0 would make the GDP of Thai paddy and rice increase by 0.61% and 0.76% respectivwth rate of 1.72% and 7.13%.In the situation of Case 2，if there is a tax decrease in 2015 in accordance with the agreement，it is anticipated that the total GDP of Thailand will have a growth rate just 0.004%，while Vietnams be 0.03%.When looking at the GDP growth rate of Thai paddy and rice，it is found that they should have a growth rate of 0.10% and 0.12% respectively，while Vietnams growth rate is 0.28% and 1.17%.It can thus be seen that when there is a rice tax decrease in the ASEAN market，Vietnam will higher receive benefits and have more GDP growth rate than Thailand，and when the rice customs duty decreases to 0 in every AEC country，Thailand and Vietnam will both receive increased prof，it is anticipated that Thailand will receive only slight benefits as is shown in Table 1. Analysis of the Impact from the Tax Decrease on Export When analyzing and comparing the impact of the rice customs duty decrease according to the ASEAN Free Trade Agreements in Thailand and Vietnam，it is found that according to Case 1 when the customs duty of ASEAN countries become 0，Thailand to be able to export more rice to other countrrt growth rate is the Philippines，and it is anticipated the growth rate will be 35.70%.The second market is Indonesia，with a growth rate 25.31%.However，when comparing the growth rate between Thailand and Vietnam，it can be seen that Vietnam has a greater export growth rate in the Philippines，possibly by as much as 116.0% - approximately 3 times the Thai growth rxport market，the Philippines and Malaysia，it is seen that Thailand has a smaller growth rate than Vietnam for both markets，which have Vietnam dominating the markrt growth rate when compared to Vietnam，since Thailand is the rice market holder in that counhe overall Thai rice export growth rate，there are some markets where Thailand will have a decreasing export growth rate；for example，in Singapore and Brunei，since both two countries already have 0 customs duty rt growth rates of both Thailand and Vietnam will have decreasing figug export are Cambodia and Myanmar，as these two have not reduced their taxes as shown in table 2. Analysis of Impacts on the Distribution of Farmers Income Apart from the impacts of the rice tax decrease by the ASEAN Agreements on Thailands economic system，the rice tax decreases of ASEAN countries will also affect Thai farmers household incs household income will increase approximately by 1，403 baht per household，or 15.12% of the total increase of the households increases by 7，873 baht per household，or 84.88% of the total increase of the households incase approximately by 1，009 baht per household and the income of non-farmers who are involved increases by 5，665 baht per household，as is shown in Table 3 and Chart 2. From the studies results as shown above，it can be seen that Thai rice exports to the ASEAN market have strong competitor in Viets and has the same primary export markets as does Thaileral countries，especially the Philippines and Malayace under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreements，it will result in Vietnam receiving greater benefits than Thailand in production，export and farmers inc knowledge and understanding of opening free trade isse for the situattatus in ASEAN market After the opening of the Free Trade agreement under which the goods tax rates of ASEAN member countries in the ASEAN Economic Community will decrease，it is time to examine what the direction of Thailands international trade status will be. Trade value among ASEAN Countries Singapore is the main exporter in the ASEAN marore has always been at the top of total exports，providing nearly 50.0% of the total export value to the ASEAN market of all of the ASEAN countries combilion，an increase from the previous year of US$19，554 millndonesia in that order （Table 1 and Chart 1）.With imports it is the same as with expoith US$74，700 million，since Singapore emphasizes trading rather than product31，906 million and also having the highest surplus trade balance in ASEAN （Table 2 and Chart 2）.Second to Singapore was Malaysia，which had an import value from ASEAN in 2010 of US$44，694 million，which was an increase over 2009 by US$13，484 mille previous year of US$5，824 million and fell to third place behind Thailand，which had a surplus trade balance of US$13，650 million in 2010，as Thailands export value had increahe establishment of AEC，it can be seen that before AEC - that is in 2009 - Vietnam had the highest market share in the ASEAN group at 75.72%.The market share then decreased by 4.34%；nevertheless，Vietnam still has the largest market shrease after the AEC went into effect of 5.24%.Myanmar is now third，but with a decrease of 1.17%.Singapore increased its market share by 0.33%.（Table 3） Comparing Market Shares after One Year of Free Trade in the AEC After the AECs opening，there are only three countries that have so far benefited by increased market shares inside ASket share has increased to 35.8%，as it can now export more of the following goods to ASEAN：electrical appliances and electronics，petroleum products and coal，and motor vehicles and parts；its market shares for these have increased 1.23%，0.85% and 2.69% respectivat 39.5%.Second is Indonesia，which has an increased export growth rate of 36.4%，calculated as worth of US$6，095 millthat Thailand has an increased market share of only 3.9%，which is less than Vietnam，with an increased market share of 5.3%.Indonesias goods have an increased market share and have considerable export vand electronics，and motor vehicles and pareater export rate to ASEAN of only 9.3%.Vietnamese exports of petroleum products and coal have decreased consideraport to ASEAN has little vas international trade has improld economic situation declint made the international trade situation of Thailand and other countries improve in 2010. Thai Rice and the Move toward the ASEAN Economic Community About 500 farmers，rice experts，representatives from the public and private sectors，and members of the media will gather at the upcoming Thai Rice Forum 2012 to look into the Thai rice situation and the move toward the ASEAN Economic Communer Royal Patronage，Kasetsart University，and the Rice Department at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives，the forum will take place at Kasetsart University in Bangkok on 1 June 2012. It will discuss two major issues that may have impacts on the Thai rice situation and farmuires the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers between ASEAN member countrunei Darussalam，Indonesia，Malaysia，the Philippines，Singapore，and Thailand，reduced tariffs to zero for merchandises moving across their bordanmar，and Viet Nam，have committed to achieving the zero-tariff target in 2015 when ASEAN becomes a single communouse effect on rice productfarmers need to prepare themselves for the new situatce exporter，Thailand also needs to increase the efficiency of its production and marketing procesroposal to be submitted to relevant agencies to cope with the situation，which provides both threats and opportunitduring the first quarter of 2012，Thailand exported 1.6 million metric tonnes of rice，worth more than 33.7 billion be，when compared with the figures in the same period of 2011.The five top importers of Thai rice inclu