ScenarioPlanning(PPT-38).ppt

scenario planning,agenda,principles generating scenarios a scenario project organising a scenario workshop,predicting the future,niels bohr said “predicting is very difficult, especially if its about the future.” a mayor in early twentieth century pennsylvania “i can foresee the day when there will be one of these (a telephone) in every town” conservative political thinker edmund burke “you can never plan the future by the past”,forecasting the future,predicting technology futures,predicting oil prices,japan foresight review foresight started in japan early 50s review of accuracy after 25 years found that accuracy better if for instance: future of chemistry consulted chemists plus chemical engineers, physicists, biologists, economist, mathematicians problems of shared assumptions not made explicit thinking influenced by todays agenda now received wisdom to look wide for a range of weak signals as well as extrapolate current trends,lessons on forecasting,why forecasts miss,governments less effective,people more sensible,technology push doesnt,progress?,scenarios,scenarios are “an internally consistent view of what the future might be”, “not a forecast but one possible future outcome” professor michael porter, harvard business school,forecasts scenarios,forecasts and scenarios,memories of the future,ingvar, a neurobiologist found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep these “memories of the future” act as a filter to extraneous signals. one role for models is to provide a context for these explorations scenarios provide several alternative model futures for the brain to explore increases the ability of the brain to perceive, speeds the response. scenarios can increase the range of “what we have experienced” and “what is relevant to our future”.,“843” trends alternate ideas & portfolio early indicators interconnected futures systems management timescales planning decisions resources,scenarios and decisions,horizon scenarios strategy decision implementation scanning maker,agenda,principles generating scenarios a scenario project organising a scenario workshop,generating scenarios,why? should we use scenario planning public sector, private sector when? are they useful & when not single dominant factor connection to decisions/implementation who? should take part insiders, outsiders what? results might we expect decisions how? do we generate scenarios 5 steps,public sector ecs high level expert group on converging technologies create common language health & safety executive get ahead of public attitudes private sector shell, erste allgemeine versicherung anticipate geopolitical futures arup, bp test strategic plan against possible futures roche, bae systems develop corporate social responsibility policies for different african countries/ exposure to the us,when are scenarios useful?,to create common language do not start a scenarios project if there is no decision process in place to take actions when the industry is being affected by a single overwhelming factor when the organisation is in panic mode do use scenarios to create models which can then be recognised to anticipate change so that plans are in place when they happen to test strategic plans for branching/decision points,who should take part?,core team need a team member who has completed a scenario project links to decision makers e.g board sponsor three to six members balance insiders e.g long time employees outsiders e.g new hires, consultants get data & insights from web, insiders, competition, regulators etc core team often work part-time over several months very mentally tiring!,how many scenarios?,four scenarios creativity or vision ec, hleg three scenarios danger is “middle one is the forecast” erste allgemeine versicherung, roche, bae systems two scenarios qualitative differences shell, arup more than four difficult for people to see the differences an important aspect of scenarios is communication,what results to expect,a set of scenarios use of steep (societal, technological, political, environmental, economic) data to set context use of qualitatively different worlds within this context scenarios described depending on audience comparison tables for strategic planners narrative, story as told by a character in the future for wider use video, actors for public engagement organisation alerted to early indicators of scenarios better decision making,workshops & projects,workshops to generate scenarios marketing, based on extensive research before hand management development, to benefit participants and create shared language results not used after merger or acquisition, workshop to explore shared assumptions workshops using pre-built scenarios, to test or develop strategy projects to generate and use scenarios strategic decision making with time to interview sources of data and insight, develop ideas over a period engage with board, write up in detail for strategic planners, create storylines and video for wider use.,agenda,principles generating scenarios a scenario project organising a scenario workshop,project to generate scenarios,startup: question scope team budget timescale reporting information exchange launch,step 1 month 1,step 2 months 2-4,step 3 month 5,step 4 month 6,step 5 month 7,diagnosis: interviews analysis synthesis research feedback,issues (expert) workshops: external market internal,scenario workshop: trends uncertainties clusters names storylines timelines,options: triage “just do it” more work no action plan feedback team celebrate,health and safety executive,health & safety executive (hse) employees about 20,000 people responsible for setting standards for health and safety at work manages high risk industries directly (eg oil rigs) regulates local government enforcement of other industries health & safety laboratories had a team of 6 people doing horizon scanning horizon scanning team did not find it easy to communicate with the board worked with experienced consultants sami and infinite futures to develop scenarios presented scenarios at hse conference use scenarios to drive new thinking about the role of the health and safety executive,step 1:startup,question: what is the shape of society and government by 2020 and what effect will this have on health and safety at work? scope: uk, 2020 team: hsl horizon scanning team (6), wendy schultz (infinite futures), gill ringland, adrian davies, martin duckworth budget: 50,000 ( for consultants) timescale: may 2006 to december 2006 reporting: hse sponsor, through to board information exchange: used a software tool called basecamp to share information launch: may 2006,step 2: diagnosis,interviews 25 interviews, staffed by 1 hsl + 1 consultant analysis captured in a workbook, takes each thought from each interview and categorizes it as external, competition, internal e.g globalisation external factor synthesis decide on most important factors: eg, work/life balance, attitude to risk (26 issues) also events (eg olympics 2012) which will change attitudes research hsl team established data to support (or otherwise) all 26 major issues feedback short paper to the board on progress,step 3: consult experts,hsl team researched all 26 major issues some could be foreacst and could be built into the scenarios eg increase in disruptive technologies eg increase in average age in the uk (even allowing for immigration) others were open questions eg attitudes to privacy and risk eg culture dependency or self reliance eg effect of globalisation on uk pack for scenarios workshop included a paragraph on each of the issues, plus a short analysis of possible events,step 4: scenario workshop,invitees hse wanted to invite influencers from across hse also some outsiders total of 28 people so did most of working in 4 syndicates of 7 to give participants air time event duration 2 days, all had dinner together over-night kick-off and introduction to process board sponsor, also took part throughout held at hses new conference facilities in bootle, lancashire emphasised need for good room dynamics, heat & light, flip charts, water in the rooms, etc,scenario workshop, day one,syndicates full group,step 4: scenario matrix,scenarios are built from uncertainties in this box plus trends (forecastable),forecastable,you set up a forecasting unit to track these trends,important,less important,uncertain,step 4:scenario cross,personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk,blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk,decreased uk competitiveness,increased uk competitiveness,scenario workshop, day two,syndicates full group,step 4: naming the scenarios,worked in pairs to brainstorm names each pair chose a scenario to name voting on names virtue of necessity digital rose garden tough choices boom and blame syndicates to develop storylines for their scenario early indicators trigger events heroes & villains typical front page in 2020,step 4: winding up the workshop,syndicates presented scenario storylines using google images sound track syndicates very competitive! in plenary, brainstormed the big issues for the organisation in each scenario all scenarios implied changes brief from board sponsor on next steps conference for 120 key influencers wind-tunnelling workshop board paper used electronic feedback form for the event.,step 5: options,conference participants asked to brainstorm of options what should the hse do? common options across all scenarios e g educating next generation of stakeholders re: emerging risks, risk management - and communication contingent options depending on the scenario eg distinguish more clearly between the roles of enforcer and advisor two brands, if not two organisations (digital rose garden) with smes, fiscal incentives rather than sanctions - changing behaviour