内罗毕地产市场调查报告.docx

Cherwell LimitedREAL ESTATE IN NAIROBI内罗毕房地产REPORT ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN NAIROBIWITH FOCUS ON RESIDENTIALHOUSES, HOTELS,SERVICED APARTMENTS AND OFFICES内罗毕房地产市场报告主讲：住房、宾馆、公寓式酒店及办公楼ISSUE F6: 2nd April 2014二零一四年四月二日 发布Prepared by Cherwell Technical Department彻韦尔技术部 编制CONTENTS 目录1Executive Summary 绪言2Why Nairobi? 为什么选择内罗毕？3Challenges and Strategies 挑战与策略4Overview of Real Estate Market in Nairobi 内罗毕房地产市场概况5Residential Apartments 公寓楼住房市场6Hotels/ Serviced Apartments 宾馆及公寓式酒店市场7Offices 办公楼市场8Future Growth 未来发展9Key Success Strategies 赢得市场的重要策略EXECUTIVE SUMMARY绪言1Nairobi is a vibrant, growing city. There is no other city to compare with Nairobi in East Africa. 内罗毕是一座充满活力、正在崛起的城市。在东非，没有任何其它城市能与之媲隆。2International organisations are establishing their headquarters in Nairobi because of the importance of its location and because the competitiveness of its market makes it lower cost than similar capitals, e.g. Kampala. 许多国际组织都将总部设于内罗毕，不仅因其地理位置重要，还因其具有市场运营成本低廉的竞争优势，比如，若将总部设在乌干达首都坎帕拉就会比设在内罗毕的运营成本更高。3The demand for housing in Nairobi is high, although it is important carefully to select the location and market segment. 内罗毕的房屋需求量很大，但需要认真选择地理位置及确立市场定位。4The demand for hotels and serviced apartments is high due to the business demand created by greater commercial activity (3 above) and also the steady tourist demand. 众多频繁的商业、商务活动以及稳定的旅游业使得内罗毕有大量的宾馆及公寓式酒店的需求。5The demand for offices is high. This is evidenced by the number of residential homes being converted to offices. However, there is an overhang of supply, the sale market is small and the rental market has an unfavourable tax regime, i.e. recently impose VAT. 内罗毕办公楼的需求量很大。这一点，从大量的住宅被用作办公室就可以看出。但，办公楼的市场供给超量、销售对象少、出租的税费重，比如最近又征收增值税。6The following are the recommendations for investment, depending on whether the client wishes develop and sell or develop and hold for rental and capital appreciation. 依照开发商希望采用的资本增值模式（开发销售、开发持有出租），提出以下一些投资建议：Summary of Real Estate Investment in Nairobi: Recommendations for Investment内罗毕房地产投资概况：投资建议Sale出售Rental出租Locations地理位置（结合地图）Comments备注Residential Apartments (Upmarket)住宅公寓（高端）Yes是No不Kilimani（Yaya附近中国人聚集区）, Westlands（西区印度人区域）Competition within the sale market. Many people buy as an investment and rent out.销售方面存在市场竞争。许多客户购房的目的是投资及出租。Residential Apartments (Lower market)住宅公寓（低端）Yes是No不Embakasi, Mombasa Road（机场路）, Northern Bypass（北部支路）Attractive for first time buyers. Good access to public transport required.Low cost mortgages and advantagePotential investors from diaspora对首次购房的客户具有吸引力。需要有便利的公共交通。可低成本按揭贷款，且可负担房款。旅居肯尼亚人或海外肯尼亚人都是潜在购房投资者。Housing (upper market)住房（可指平房类）（高端）Yes是No不Red HillA new area opening up.Areas such as Karen and Runda should be avoided due to the high land cost in relation to housing density.一个新新开发区域。不适于（西南部）Karen及（西北部）（联合国、各国使馆区域）Runda，因为考虑到住房密度要求则土地成本高。Housing (lower market)住房（可指平房类）（低端）Yes是No不Embakasi, Mombasa Road（机场路）, Northern Bypass（北部支路）Attractive for first time buyers. Good access to public transport required.Low cost mortgages and advantagePotential investors from diaspora对首次购房的客户具有吸引力。（地理位置）需要有便利的公共交通。可低成本按揭贷款，且可负担房款。旅居肯尼亚人或海外肯尼亚人都是潜在购房投资者。Hotels/ Serviced Apartments宾馆 / 公寓式酒店Yes是Access to Road network交通便利Good returns. Tourist market may be affected by external factors回报不错。外界因素影响旅游市场。Offices办公楼No不No不Offices for sale is a very small market.Offices for rent are in over-supply and affected by tax regime, i.e. VAT办公楼的销售市场小。办公楼出租的供给过剩，且受征税制度的影响，比如征收增值税。WHY NAIROBI?为什么选择内罗毕？Overall review about real estate market in Nairobi内罗毕房地产市场概览1 Key among the continents emerging hubs is the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. 非洲大陆崛起的中心城市中，肯尼亚首都内罗毕是佼佼者。2Nairobis profile as a regional business hub has been growing as seen by the number multinationals, from diverse industries, which have chosen to open shop in the Kenyan capital or decided to choose the city as their base for Africa-wide operations. Among this business are banks, ICT Companies, mobile phone companies and nongovernmental organizations.“This is the most important African business centre between the Mediterranean and Johannesburg,” - Anthony Havelock, Knight Franks Head of Agency in Nairobi. 内罗毕已然成为快速发展的地区商业中心，不同行业的众多跨国公司均把目光聚焦于此，在内罗毕纷纷开业，或者直接将内罗毕设为拓展非洲业务的基地。这些机构包括：银行、信息通讯技术公司、移动通信公司以及非政府组织等。 “这是位于地中海与约翰内斯堡之间的、非洲最重要的商业中心。”国际物业顾问机构内罗毕负责人Anthony Havelock这样说道。3Thereal estate sector in Kenyahas seen a boom that begun somewhere in the mid to late 2000s because the property market, through developers, is responding to demand that has been created by occupiers and investors of real estate. 从2000年代中后期某个时候开始，由于房地产开发商适应并满足购房者及投资者引领的市场需求，肯尼亚房地产业即已得到了快速发展。4InNairobi, the capital and largest city ofKenya, there is one of the largest expatriate communities in the continent due to the significant number of multinationals who have chosen Nairobi as either their African hub or East and Central African hub. 内罗毕是肯尼亚的首都及最大城市，且众多跨国公司纷纷选择内罗毕作为他们的非洲业务中心、或者中东非业务中心，使得内罗毕成为非洲最大的移居城市之一。5In the retail sector, the increasing wealth and sophistication of African consumers has led to rising demand for modern retail formats and western-style shopping centres. Kenya has seen a wave of retail construction activity in recent years which has delivered the first generation of modern shopping malls in major cities. 在零售业领域，非洲顾客拥有越来越多的财富及消费愿望，这就带来了对现代零售方式及西方风格的购物中心的不断需求。近年来，在肯尼亚已开发了一系列的针对零售业的建筑项目，在一些主要城市，已经建起了第一批现代大型购物中心。6The growth of Africas technology sector is creating demand for office space. Kenya is at the forefront of Africas technology boom and its ambitions to establish itself as a global centre for the tech sector are encapsulated by Konza Technology City, a US$10 billion project marketed by the Kenyan governments ICT Board, which is planned for construction over the next 20 years on a 2,000 hectare site, 60 km south east of Nairobi. 科技在非洲的发展正在创造着对办公场所的需求。肯尼亚奋斗在非洲科技繁荣事业的最前线，并致力于将其打造成一个世界级的科技中心。凝聚了这一梦想的正是预计投资百亿美元的Konza科技城项目，该项目由肯尼亚政府通讯技术委员会组织实施，占地2000公顷，位于内罗毕东南部，距内罗毕市区60公里，计划用20年时间建成。7One of Africas greatest business success stories in recent years has been M-Pesa, a mobile banking service launched in Kenya in 2007 that allows users to pay bills and transfer, deposit or withdraw cash using their mobile phones. In the space of five years, the service has gained 15 million customers in Kenya and, according to some reports, as much as a third of the countrys GDP passes through the system. 近年来，非洲最大的商业成就之一便是电子货币及移动银行业务，于2007年在肯尼亚推出，用户只需要用手机（发一条短信）就可完成付款、转账、现金存取等事务。仅仅5年时间，该业务在肯尼亚已赢得了1500万客户，且据报道，该业务正在服务着肯尼亚国内生产总值的三分之一。8In the residential sector, the need for greater volumes of good quality housing is reflected in a number of ambitious new suburbs that are either under construction or planned by private property developers e.g., Tatu City in Nairobi. The demand from offshore buyers for high quality residential accommodation has continued to increase in Kenya. Information derived from Knight Franks Africa Report 2013. 在住宅领域，私营开发商开发的大量优质住房已经或即将在多个新兴郊区落成反映出优质住房在内罗毕有着巨大的市场需求。此类项目如：内罗毕Tatu城。海外购房者对肯尼亚的优质住房的需求也是一直在持续增长。（摘自Knight Frank出具的2013年非洲房产报告）The Property Market房产市场1As the middle class grows, so do cities which today host one out of four Africans. UN-Habitat estimates that African cities become home to over 40,000 people every day (UN-Habitat 2011). Most of the worlds largest cities with population growth rates above 5% are in Africa. Such trends foresee immense strains on affordable urban housing, and exert a strong push on demand for it. 随着中产阶级人群的增多，城市也越来越多；今天，已有四分之一的非洲人生活在城市。据联合国人居署（2011年联合国人居署报告）评估，每天有超过4万人涌入非洲城市居住。世界级大城市中，人口增长率超过5%的大多数都在非洲，可见这样的趋势给经济适用的城市住房的供给带来极大压力，但同时也拉动着相应的市场需求。2In 2012, the property markets inNairobiandMombasa, the largest and second-largest cities in Kenya respectively, earned two of first and second positions of 71 cities surveyed globally to outstrip all other Prime International Residential Index locations. They were the only cities in the southern hemisphere to have reported double digit property price increases,despite a defying surge in lending rates and a weak global economy. The table shows property price growth in the top cities in the survey. 2012年，全球“主要国际住宅指数”调查显示：肯尼亚第一大城市内罗毕及第二大城市蒙巴萨的房地产市场在脱颖而出的71个城市中分别占据第一及第二位。它们是南半球的城市中仅有的两个尽管在贷款利率高涨、全球经济低迷的情况下房价还呈两位数增长的城市。下表显示调查中房地产价格上涨最多的一些城市的涨幅情况：City 城市Country国家Percentage Increase Between 2011 & 20122011至2012年期间增长百分比Nairobi 内罗毕Kenya 肯尼亚25%Mombasa 蒙巴萨Kenya 肯尼亚20%Miami 迈阿密USA 美国19.1%Bali 巴厘岛Indonesia 印度尼西亚15%Jakarta 雅加达Indonesia印度尼西亚14.3%London 伦敦United Kingdom 英国12.1%Vancouver 温哥华Canada 加拿大10.4%Moscow 莫斯科Russia 俄罗斯9.8%Toronto 多伦多Canada 加拿大8.5%Beijing 北京China 中国8.1%3Market prices for Kenyas luxury property rose by the highest margins globally in 2011, according to a research report. The Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank, a subsidiary of Citigroup, showed that property prices in Nairobi and the coastal region increased by double-digits. 据一项研究报告显示：2011年，肯尼亚豪宅的市场价格涨幅居全球最高。国际物业顾问机构Knight Frank及花旗集团旗下花旗私人银行发布的2012年财富报告显示：肯尼亚内罗毕及沿海地区的房价呈两位数上涨。4The two Kenyan cities were placed in the “safe haven” category of the report, which indicates the best places for investors to put their money. 在报告中，肯尼亚的这两个城市均被列为“安全港湾”之城，向投资者表明这两个城市是最佳的投资目的地。5“Safe haven isnt necessarily a phrase many people would use to describe the country in a global context, but compared with many of its neighbours it is just that, according to Ben Woodhams, managing director of Knight Frank Kenya,” says the wealth report. 这份报告还讲到：“据Knight Frank机构常务董事Ben Woodhams所言，人们不必专门用安全港这样的词汇来描述这个国家（的城市），但是就全球情况来看、与相邻许多城市相比，这两个城市的确是名副其实的安全城市。”6Mr Woodhams attributes the surge in luxury property prices to increased demand being driven by infrastructure development and economic growth, which have attracted local and international capital flows. 这位常务董事Ben Woodhams先生也认为：基础设施发展及经济增长拉动着对房产的不断需求从而导致豪宅价格高涨，同时也吸引着本地及国际资本、带动着资本流动。7Inflows from Kenyans in the diaspora are particularly significant in driving the prices, the report notes. 该报告还提到：旅居国外的肯尼亚人回国（投资）也是一项推动房价上涨的重要因素。8Despite the increase in the cost of luxury property, the report said that buying a square metre of land in Nairobi and Mombasa is still cheaper than other cities such as Monaco. 该报告继续指出：尽管豪宅的开发成本增加，但肯尼亚内罗毕及蒙巴萨的土地价格仍然比欧洲摩纳哥的地价便宜。9Of the 71 cities included in the report, with respect to property prices, a square metre in Nairobi costs $1,700 or Sh141,000, barely three per cent the $58,300 or Sh4.8 million a buyer would have to pay in Monaco. 该报告对所涉及的71个城市的房价作了对比，内罗毕的房价是每平方米1700美元或141,000肯先令，而摩纳哥则是每平方米58,300美元或480万肯先令，内罗毕房价仅是摩纳哥房价的3%。10The returns in Kenyas property market are good. It is usually about 25% to 30% on development and up to 8% on rentals, but the capital growth is good. It has always been a very solid investment. It has been a very well performing market. This is not yet a mature market and any time you have a growing market you have opportunities. There are many foreign investors in the market though, and many are coming. We are seeing institutional investors pumping billions in real estate projects. In the past, institutional investors shied away from real estate because it has its characteristics; it is not very liquid and it requires huge amounts of investment. Now they are seeing that real estate is outperforming other markets and it is secure. With the development of the real estate investment trusts (REITs), we expect a lot more institutional investors. Real estate is capital intensive and we think REITs will bridge that gap. 肯尼亚房产市场的利润回报是可观的。开发回报通常在25%到30%；出租回报常可达8%，但市价增值空间很大。房产投资已成为一项非常可靠的投资，房产市场已然充满活力。虽然这个市场仍不成熟，但任何时候，你在市场中都能获得发展、获得机会。许多国外投资者已经或即将到来投资这个市场。我们可以看到，金融机构投资者以及有组织的团体投资者正在向房地产开发项目注入百亿巨资。过去，金融机构投资者往往都避开房地产投资，因为这项投资有其自身特点：资金不易变现、且需要大额投入。现在，他们可以看到：投资房产市场胜过于投资其它市场，且安全放心、稳固可靠。随着房地产投资信托公司的不断增多，我们期待着有越来越多的金融机构投资者投资房产。房地产业是一个资本密集的产业，我们相信房地产投资信托公司将会填补房地产开发资金的空缺。CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES挑战与策略Identify challenges to real estate project investment in Nairobi and strategies for addressing challenges.内罗毕房地产投资的挑战与应对挑战的策略。1Demand and supply gap 供需缺口The Kenyan market as with many other countries in Africa is characterised by a large demand and a chronic undersupply of formal housing. This situation has a great impact on prices.Technical assistance: to both developers and contractors to increase their capacity to deliver housing units in larger quantities so as to benefit from economies of scale.像其它非洲国家市场一样，肯尼亚正规住房市场的特点也是需求巨大、供给不足且缓慢。这样的形势对房价有重要影响。技术援助：须同时针对开发商与承包商，以增强他们大量开发房屋的能力，因而获得规模效应。2Building costs 建筑成本Market expectations about building solutions are important and can drive costs upwards.Use of alternative building solutions: the market needs to be educated to accept different building solutions which are more suitable cost-wise to reaching medium/lower income segments. For instance greater investments into pre-fabricated houses can be more cost effective, and drastically reduce construction time.建筑方案顺应市场期待是极其重要的，而且能够促使建筑成本增加。选择采用建筑方案：引导市场接受多样的、优化建筑成本的建筑方案，以适应中/低收入水平的人群的需求。比如，大量投资预制板房可以大大节约成本，并极大地减少建筑时间。3Access to finance 融资渠道This element is two-faceted. First there is the issue of access to finance for developers. In this respect, most housing is financed primarily through debt. Considering the time needed for construction, potential delays as well as high and fluctuating interest rates, the cost of debt can weight negatively on the total financing structure of developments. In addition, access to equity is in short supply making financing thornier as it becomes difficult for developers to become eligible for loans. Second, access to finance is also a constraint for buyers. Mortgage penetration rates are very low across Africa. In Kenya, it reaches 2.5% of outstanding mortgages to GDP. 这个问题有两个方面。首先，开发商要面临如何获得融资的问题。在这一点上，大多数开发商获得融资主要是通过借款。考虑到建筑所需工期、工期可能延误以及利率的波动这些因素，仅借款成本就在整个开发成本中占很大比重、构成财务负担。此外，募股融资的方式也很少，这使得开发商融资一般颇为棘手，同时也很难有资格进行贷款。 其次，购房者获得融资也会遇到诸多限制。在非洲，按揭贷款渗透率很低。在肯尼亚，按揭贷款的渗透率仅占国内生产总值的2.5%。Equity provision for developers: this will limit excessive debt leveraging of real estate developments. Private equity funds can be an interesting avenue to be pursued. 开发商出卖股票融资：这样可限制负债过多，以减少房地产开发负担。 股票型基金则能成为一种可引起重视的、可行的渠道。Adequate funding system to facilitate mortgage provision: the banking system is still not in a position to offer the long-term finance that the housing sector needed. Beyond them provision of long-term mortgages, alternative financing schemes such as “lease-to-own” arrangements in partnership with local financial institutions could be deployed for instance. 完善长期债券体系以促进按揭贷款：银行系统仍然不能提供房地产业所需的长期融资。此外，还可采用长期按揭贷款方案、另类融资方案（比如与地方融资机构合作开展“先租后买”活动）。4Routes to Market 市场渠道The traditional method of marketing which uses the Homes Expo is becoming less effective. People are now marketing directly to corporate, particularly those which have Savings and Loans schemes (SACCOs) and those that offer low cost mortgages, e.g. banks.Another form of marketing that is becoming more popular is digital marketing. 参加房交会之类的传统市场营销方法正逐渐变得不那么有效。现在人们开展市场营销是直接面向公司、银行，尤其是那些有储蓄和信贷合作组织的公司、或者是那些提供低成本贷款的银行。 另一种越来越普遍的营销方式是（借助于互联网、电脑通信技术和数字交互式媒体来实现的）数字营销。5Land infrastructure and property rights 土地基础设施及土地产权Land tenure and registration regulations are paramount when it comes to drawing private developers in the market. Similarly, so is the provision of off-site infrastructure and land servicing. The lack of master planning undermines the sustainability of housing developments, paving the way for informal settlements which in turn puts pressure on existing infrastructure such as sewage etc. In Kenya, these areas are of concern due to regulatory complexities.Local government support: to allow for the effective supply of off-site infrastructure and land servicing (i.e. development of trunk infrastructure, water & sanitation, etc.) needed to support real estate development. 对于私人开发商来说，土地所有权及登记制度是非常重要的。同样，现场外基础设施及土地开发服务也是非常重要的。没有总体规划的问题影响着房产开发，导致非正规居住区的出现，而依次带给现有排污等基础设施运行的压力。在肯尼亚，虽然整改具有复杂性，但这些问题正在受到关注。 地方政府支持：批准提供支持房地产开发的现场外基础设施及土地开发服务（比如：发展管道、供水、公共卫生等设施）。OVERVIEW OF REAL ESTATE MARKET IN NAIROBI内罗毕房地产市场概况Overview of real estate market in Nairobi, especially market demand and supply. 内罗毕房地产市场概况，尤其是供需市场。Information derived from Africa Development Bank Group (AFDB) Economic Brief, Volume 4, Number 3 2013.（摘选自非洲开发银行集团经济简报第4卷，2013年第3号）1As of 2012, Kenyan population growth is estimated at 4.2% per annum. Based on this growth and the rate of urban migration, the yearly annual increase in demand for housing in Kenya is of 206,000 units annually of which 82,000 in urban areas. In 2011, the ministry of housing estimated that the formal supply of houses to the market reached 50,000 creating a 156,000 shortfall which added up to the 2,000,000 units existing backlog. In 2012, it is estimated that further 85,000 units were also added to the backlog (CAFA 2011; CAHF 2012). 截至2012年，肯尼亚人口增长率为每年4.2%。基于这样的人口增长率及城市移民的比率，肯尼亚每年对住房的需求量可达206,000套，其中城市