国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly.ppt

Chapter 9 Fundamental Analysis,The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence.,Do you know why traders carry a fundamental analysis?,SUPPLY AND DEMAND,Anything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices, and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices.,Price,0,Price and Supply,s,s,E,E,Q,D,Price,0,Price and Demand,D,D,S,E,E,Q,As price goes up, consumption drops, and vice versa.,MARKET REPORTS,The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily, weekly, and monthly price movements.,SEASONALITY,If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to-month basis, we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other months price tends to bottom.,Monthly seasonal price tendency for corn,Weekly Corn Prices,charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal.,Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices,CYCLIC PRICE CHANGES,The cyclic method of analysis and forecasting has its roots in the work of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.,Upside Reversal,Down side Reversal,Timing Signals, Upside and Downside Reversals,Low-High Close High-Low Close,Timing Signals,“W” BOTTOM,“M” TOP,Timing Signals on Closing Basis Charts,SECULAR TRENDS 长期趋势,Less predictable than seasonal and cycles but significant nevertheless as an influence on prices are price trends resulting from long-term changes in supply and demand.,The government is an ever-present but often fickle influence on commodity prices.,Government Price Support Programs,Political Influences,Political decisions anywhere in the world may affect commodity prices significantly.,Monthly Futures Copper Prices,OTHER FORCES AND FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES,News of war can lead to hoarding as well as to a greater demand for raw materials for defense and stockpiling.,When the economy is healthy, un employment is low, the experts are predicting prosperous times ahead, and business is expanding, demand tends to be high for commodities.,General Business Conditions,The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) ,the Farm Price Index (FPI), the Dow Jones Averages, the Futures Price Indexes, the Reuters Spot Index.,PRICE ANALYSIS,The Consumer Price Index (CPI),If these costs are rising, at the consumer level, it might indicate a rise in the inflation rate. The CPI is also called the cost-of-living index.,What is the seasonal price pattern? What is the long-term price trend? What about government price supports? Expert subsidies? What are the figures on current production and carryover stocks?,PRICE ANALYSIS,Even the most sophisticated of systems will not be perfect. There will always be unexpected variables that the anal