《全球磷肥展望》PPT课件.ppt

Global Phosphate Outlook 2008-2009 全球磷肥展望,Michel Prudhomme IFA France ,Non-for-profit organization representing the global fertilizer industry and related services.非营利组织，代表全球肥料工业及相关服务 530 member companies in 87 countries. 有530个会员单位，来自于87个国家 IFAs mandate: IFA的使命 Promote the sustainable and responsible production of fertilizers.促进可持续的和负责任的肥料生产 Foster an open business and trade environment. 培育开放的商业和贸易环境 Support the development of a sustainable and efficient use of plant nutrients. 支持可持续的和高效的利用作物养分的开发,International Fertilizer Industry Association 国际肥料工业协会,1 - World Agriculture Situation 世界农业形势 2 - Fertilizer and Fertilizer Phosphate Demand 肥料及肥料磷酸盐的需求 3 - Phosphate Rock and Phosphoric Acid Outlook 磷矿和磷酸市场展望 4 Processed Phosphates Outlook 精细磷化工市场展望,Content 内容,Fertilizer Demand Drivers 推动肥料需求的因素,Crop supply and demand projections 粮食供求预测 Food prices drivers 粮食价格 Increasing population, global economic growth, rising meat consumption per capita 人口增长、全球经济增长、人均肉食消费的提高 Escalating crude oil price, expansion of biofuel production 石油价格上涨，生物燃料生产的扩张 Declining grain inventories 谷物库存的降低 Rising farm production cost 种植成本的升高 Weather factors 气候因素 National trade policies 各国贸易政策的调整,Sources: IFA, derived from ERS-USDA, July 2008,World Cereal Production and Utilization 全球谷物生产和消费趋势,Source: FAO, July 2008,Billion tonnes,World Cereal Stocks 全球谷物库存,Source: FAO, July 2008,Million tonnes,World Fertilizer Demand 2005 2012 全球肥料需求,Million tonnes nutrients,Source: IFA, 2008,+ 2.6 % p.a. over 2007,+ 2.9 % p.a. over 2007,N,P2O5,K2O,World Fertilizer Short-Term Consumption 全球肥料短期消费预测,Source: IFA, 2008,World Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 全球磷肥需求,Mt P2O5,+ 5.0%,+ 3.1%,+ 1.6%,+ 4.5%,42.1,40.8,40.2,38.5,36.6,Source: IFA, 2008,Phosphate Nutrient Regional Demand 分地区磷肥需求2007 to 2009,Source: IFA, 2008,5 Mt P2O5,2007,2009,+ 3%,+ 2%,+ 4%,+ 6%,+ 8%,World Phosphate Rock Capability 全球磷矿石产能,Mt product,Source: IFA, 2008,233,189,194,202,214,242,Phosphate Rock Concentrates: Average Grade Excluding China 磷矿石选矿后的平均P2O5含量变化（不含中国）,Source: IFA, 2008,Half-Year Phosphate Rock Production and Trade,Mt rock,Based on IFA Quarterly Sample 磷矿石生产及贸易,Source: IFA, 2008,Half-Year Phosphoric Acid Production and Trade,Mt P2O5,Source: IFA, 2008,Based on IFA Quarterly Sample 磷酸生产及贸易,Main Phosphoric Acid Capacity Developments 主要磷酸产能变化,Source: IFA, 2008,Kt P2O5,Morocco,World Phosphoric Acid Demand 全球磷酸需求,Source: IFA, 2008,Mt P2O5,Fertilizer acid P2O5 Demand + 2.9 % p.a. over 2007,Industrial acid P2O5 Demand + 3.1 % p.a. over 2007,39.0,37.7,36.7,34.4,31.7,工业用,肥料用,Global Phosphoric Acid Supply / Demand 全球磷酸供/需,Source: IFA, 2008,Mt P2O5,Demand,Supply,Potential Surplus,World Processed Phosphates Production,Mt P2O5,Source: IFA, 2008,Based on IFA Quarterly Sample 全球主要工艺磷肥产量,World Processed Phosphates Trade,Mt P2O5,Source: IFA, 2008,Based on IFA Quarterly Sample 全球工艺磷肥贸易,Mt P2O5,Major MAP/DAP Importers / Exporters,Source: IFA, 2008,Based on IFA Quarterly Sample 主要MAP/DAP进口/出口国,Global Phosphate Capacity Additions 全球磷肥产能变化,Mt P2O5,Source: IFA, 2008,World DAP : Supply / Demand 全球DAP供/需,Source: IFA, 2008,Phosphate Market Outlook 磷肥市场展望,2008和2009年，全球肥料需求相对坚挺, 预计年均增长约3% ，全球磷肥需求预计增长2.6% , 主要是高浓度磷肥的增长. 增长主要来自于几个国家，如巴西、印度、美国，也许还有中国. 2008年全球各磷肥产品品种的生产将会表现不同,贸易量将低于预测.相对于DAP较强劲的进口需求,尤其是印度的进口，全球磷酸、MAP，还有TSP的贸易量预计会下降. 中国2008年的出口政策已经导致减少了中国MAP和DAP向国际市场的有效输出. 2008年和2009年预计中国以外的 MAP-DAP的供应增长能力有限。新的商品MAP-DAP的增加将仅来自于摩洛哥和墨西哥. 全球磷肥市场在2008年上半年非常吃紧，预计下半年不会有太大的好转. 即便不考虑2009年一些磷肥需求的恢复,仅就现在的供求平衡预测明年的供求仍将会进一步吃紧.,Phosphate Market Outlook,Global fertilizer demand was projected to be relatively firm in 2008 and 2009, growing at an average annual rate of 3%. World phosphate fertilizer demand was forecast to expand at an annual rate of 2.6% over 2007, with much of the growth to be met with high-analysis phosphate fertilizers. A few countries, such as Brazil, India, the United States, and possibly China, will contribute most to this expansion. Global production of phosphate products will show mixed results in 2008, while trade volume would be below expectations. World trade of phosphoric acid and MAP, and to some extent TSP, is projected to decline, compared with a firm import demand for DAP, especially into India. The fertilizer export policy of China in 2008 has reduced the availability of MAP and DAP in international markets. Limited MAP-DAP capacity expansions, outside China, are foreseen during 2008 and 2009. New merchant capacity will only emerge in Morocco and Mexico. The global phosphate market was very tight