摩根斯坦利一份全球汽车产业的研究.ppt

,Stephen Girsky IMF World Auto Council June 2004,Morgan Stanley Research,The State of the Industry,Global demand growth continues to be modest, with the exception of selected emerging markets. Excess capacity likely to continue, putting pressure on prices. OEM strategies to counter deflation have been to cut costs and get the consumer to “buy up”. Company updates Questions,Morgan Stanley Research,Global Demand Growing at Slow Pace,Global Light Vehicle Demand,1.4% CAGR,LMC-JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research,Morgan Stanley Global Sales Forecast FY04E,2003A,2004E,% ,Units in MM,Morgan Stanley Research Estimates,Excess Capacity Estimated at 25-30%,Global Utilization at 72%,Autofacts,Global Excess Capacity is Significant,Honda contemplating importing small cars into U.S. from Brazil VW contemplating importing cars to Europe from Brazil Honda to import cars to Europe from China Ford/Toyota importing vehicles to Europe from Turkey,Morgan Stanley Research,OEMs Spending for Growth,13 of 14 OEMs had FY03 CapEx D&A,BMW,Mazda,PSA,Ford,VW,DCX,GM,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Zero Sum Game,Slow growth and excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue. Not everybody can be a winner. Winners will be low cost producers who deliver good product that consumers are willing to pay for.,Morgan Stanley Research,Capacity Situation Could Get Worse,NA Net Capacity Additions Over 1mm units,Ford (122) Nissan 250 Toyota 180 Total 308,GM 125 Ford (48) DCX 80 Honda 180 Nissan 200 Toyota 30 Total 567,Ford (211) GM (98) DCX 80 Hyundai 235 Total 6,Toyota 150,2003,2004,2005,2006,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research Units in 000,Every 1 Pt. of Share Translates into $1.0bn in Profits,1.03mm Units of Added Capacity is 6.2% of NA Capacity, or $5-$6bn in Pretax Profits,Detroit Three,$3,143,N.A. Pretax Profit,FY03 in MM,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Europe Estimated Capacity Additions,2003A,2004E,2005E,2006E,03-06E,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,China Estimated Capacity Additions,2003A,2004E,2005E,2006E,04-06E,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Revenue Pressures Worst Since 1970s,New Car CPI vs. Light Domestic Sales,CPI & Morgan Stanley Research,Deflationary Pricing Since 2002,Y/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPI,CPI & Morgan Stanley Research,Price Reductions Pressure Manufacturers,Every 1% Decline in Prices is Worth $1.2bn at GM $800mm at Ford $500mm at Chrysler,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Deflation Not Just a N.A. Phenomenon,GM offers 1,085 discount to prospective customers who order the new Astra before it reaches the market. Jan-04 VW counters by offering 1,000 of extra trade-in values to prospective customers who switch from competitor cars to new Golf. Jan-04 VW offers free air conditioning (implied discount of 1,000) on all new Golfs through September. Feb-04 Ford offers $6,000 in additional equipment on Focus (including air conditioning and alloy wheels). This implies a 20% discount to MSRP. Mar-04.,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Countering Deflation,Lower costs Materials 65-70% of the cost of a car More efficient use of components Global sourcing Overhead 15%-25% Investment efficiency Supplier Parks Labor -10%-20% Richen mix,Morgan Stanley Research,Overcoming Deflation; Getting Consumers to Buy Up.,APR,Maturity,Financed Amt,Payment,LTV,Implied Cost of Vehicle,FRB & Morgan Stanley Research,Global Labor Costs vs. Unit Growth,USA Germany France Sweden UK Japan Korea Taiwan Estonia Turkey Mexico Poland Malaysia Romania Thailand China Philippines India Indonesia,100 98 87 80 62 56 32 27 16 13 11 11 8 7 6 4 3 3 1.5,Labor Cost Indexed to the U.S.,1.9% -1.1% -0.1% 7.3% 3.1% 0.8% 5.8% 11.3% NA 30.5% -4.7% 7.8% 6.6% 10.9% 19.5% 26.8% 19.8% 9.6% 6.3%,FY01-FY04E Production Unit CAGR,Autoliv, LMC-JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research,Global Footprint Migrating To Lower Cost Regions,Nissan adds 250k in Mississippi FY03 Nissan adds 150k in Mississippi FY04 DCX adds 80k in Alabama FY04 Honda adds 150k in Alabama FY04 Nissan adds 50k in Georgia FY04 Hyundai adds 300k in Alabama FY05 Toyota adds 150k in Texas FY06 Toyota adds 30k in Tijuana, Mexico FY06,N.A. Capacity Additions Mostly in Southern Belt,European Capacity Additions in Eastern Europe/Turkey,Toyota adds capacity in Czech/Turkey VW adds capacity 75k in Slovakia Hyundai adds 200k in Slovakia FY06 PSA adds 300k in Slovakia FY06,Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Risks to chasing low cost labor,Export Strategy Increases Exposure to Currency Fluctuations Logistics Material Supply Political,Morgan Stanley Research,Currency Movements Add Risk to Export Strategy,Japanese vs. US$,Factset & Morgan Stanley Research,Foreign OEMs Exposed to Currency Movements, to US$ Price Sensitivity YTD-04,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus,Japanese Local Production Continues to Increase,Japanese Transplant Sales as % of Total Sales in U.S.,Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research,Watch Out for China,Three Reasons Why China Is Important: China is the 4th largest auto market, and the fastest growing High Profitability Export potential,Morgan Stanley Research,China Growing Portion of Company Profits,China Profits Matter,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Prospects of China Excess Capacity High,Capacity additions are being announced almost every month, as manufacturers race to establish future market share positions. While capacity does not currently appear to be in excess, we estimate that demand will need to grow by roughly 25%-30% per annum to absorb the currently-announced capacity additions over the next three years. Recent pricing actions in China a cause for concern.,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Company updates,Stock performance Profits Quality Market Share Return on Investment,Morgan Stanley Research,Why stock price is important,Industry is a significant user of capital; Cost of capital is a competitive advantage. Every 1% pt on a five year car loan is worth $700-$750 per vehicle. More efficient users of capital typically have a cost of capital advantage.,Morgan Stanley Research,Current Bond Yields,Morgan Stanley Research,Global OEM Market Values,Global OEM Market Cap in US$,Factset & Morgan Stanley Research,Global Share Winners,Global Share Winners FY01-FY04E,LMC-JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research Based on production units,Global Profitability Winners,Global Operating Margin LTM as of 1Q04,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Global Automotive Operating Income,Automotive Operating Income LTM as of 1Q04 ($ in MM),Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Global Financial Position,Industrial Net Debt/(Cash) ($ in MM),Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities,GM ($1,116) ($57,544) ($58,660) Ford ($3,447) ($28,797) ($32,244) DCX (6,400) (13,400) (19,800) VW (11,431) NMF (11,431) BMW (3,490) NMF (3,490) PSA (1,402) NMF (1,402) Fiat* (1,005) NMF (1,005) Renault (880) NMF (880),Pension Liability,Healthcare Liability,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research ( in MM) Fiat FY02 data, 20-F for FY03 not available,Total Liability,J.D. Power IQS Results 2004,Problems per 100 Vehicles: Out-performance,JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research,J.D. Power IQS Results 2004,Problems per 100 Vehicles: Under-performance,JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research,Actual vs. Perceived Quality,Actual Quality Perceived Quality = Share Opportunity,Actual Quality Perceived Quality = Share Risk,Actual Perceived Quality Gap,CNW & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,Toyota Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 42.8% 3 Yr: - 4.0% 5 Yr: + 13.7%,Toyota Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,Nissan Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 26.2% 3 Yr: + 38.7% 5 Yr: + 123.1%,Nissan Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,Honda Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 19.0% 3 Yr: - 11.3% 5 Yr: - 10.0%,Honda Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,GM Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 21.6% 3 Yr: - 19.7% 5 Yr: - 38.0%,GM Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,Ford Asset Turns vs. Margins,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 42.1% 3 Yr: - 48.2% 5 Yr: - 60.3%,Ford Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,DCX Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 35.0% 3 Yr: - 14.3% 5 Yr: - 56.1%,DCX Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,Volkswagen Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 15.2% 3 Yr: - 38.4% 5 Yr: - 45.9%,Note: Transitioned to IAS in 2001,Volkswagen Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research,BMW Asset Turns vs. Margin,Stock Performance: 1 Yr: + 19.5% 3 Yr: - 13.6% 5 Yr: + 35.5%,Note: Transitioned to IAS in 2001,BMW Asset Turns vs. Operating Margin,Company data & Morgan Stanley Research,Summary; Prepare For Change,Global deflation likely to continue Consumers will continue to but cars although where they buy them will change. Technology will change how cars operate and how they are put together. Flexibility is key success factor,Morgan Stanley Research,Stock Price, Price Target, & Rating History,GM, $45.62, Equal-Weight, Price Target N/A,Morgan Stanley Research,Disclaimers,Global Stock Ratings Distribution (as of May 31, 2004) Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. For disclosure purposes (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we note that Overweight, our most positive stock rating, most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation; Equal-weight and Underweight most closely correspond to neutral and sell recommendations, respectively. However, Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, neutral, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. ANALYST STOCK RATINGS Overweight (O). The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analysts view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider “more volatile“ can still perform in that manner. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months. Ratings prior to March 18, 2002: SB=Strong Buy; OP=Outperform; N=Neutral; UP=Underperform. For definitions, please go to /companycharts. ANALYST INDUSTRY VIEWS Attractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months. In-Line (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months. Cautious (C). The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months. Stock price charts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are also available at /companycharts. You may also request this information by writing to Morgan Stanley at 1585 Broadway, 14th Floor (Attention: Research Disclosures), New York, NY, 10036 USA.,Morgan Stanley Research,Important Disclosures,Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Stephen Girsky. Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited and its affiliates (collectively, “Morgan Stanley“). As of April 30, 2004, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: DaimlerChrysler AG, Ford, General Motors. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG, Ford, General Motors. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from DaimlerChrysler AG, Ford, General Motors. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from DaimlerChrysler AG, Ford, General Motors. 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