财务报表分析与证券投资.ppt

1,财务报表分析与证券投资,姜国华 Guohua Jiang 北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授 Associate Professor of Accounting Guanghua School of Management Peking University,2,The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli (1445-1517),He wrote a famous mathematics book In one chapter he invented double-entry accounting system He taught Leonardo Da Vinci perspective and proportionality. The knowledge was used to paint “the Last Supper”,3,学过财务报表分析课程的请举手,4,Dow Jones Industrial Average 1930-2002,5,DJIA, NASDAQ 1990-2002,6,Back to Square One: DJIA 1998-2002,7,D or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-2002,8,The Three Major Stock Exchanges,9,The Regulator of U.S. Stock Market,SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, commissioner, 1993-2000 in the Clinton administration Numbers Game Speech, 1998,10,The Current SEC Commissioners,11,Who Issue American Accounting Standards?,FASB: Financial Accounting Standards Board Set up in 1973 to replace Accounting Principle Board (APB) An independent, private organization Standards issued recognized by SEC GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Standards 7 concept statements (principles) e.g., No. 7 (February 2000) Using cash flow information and present value in accounting measurements 148 statements of standards (rules) by the year of 2003 e.g., No. 1 (December 1973) Disclosure of foreign currency translation information,12,International Accounting Standards,International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC) Based at London Independent and privately funded Meant to design a set of worldly accepted accounting standards Committee serve as an advisory board member .uk International Accounting Standards 41 standards up to the year of 2003 e.g., IAS 2. Inventory, January 1, 1995,13,“Big Four” International Accounting Firms,Ernst Young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions, 4.3 billions in the U.S.) PriceWaterhouseCoopers Deloitte & Touche KPMG,14,中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 (Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission),15,Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges,16,Amount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets,17,Market Capitalization,18,Market Size relative to NYSE,19,Market Performance,20,Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms: 1992-2004,21,ROE,22,Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%),23,Share types in China,Shares,Tradable,Non-tradable,Individual,Foreign,Legal person,State,A share,B share,H, N, S, Share,24,25,Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies (December, 2001),Non-tradable (0.1 billion shares): State Shares 2410.61 46.20 Domestic Legal Person Shares 663.17 12.71 Other non-tradable Shares 331.07 6.4% Total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25 Tradable: A Shares 1318.13 25.26% B Shares 163.09 3.13% H/N and other shares 331.94 6.36% Total Tradable: 1813.16 34.75% Total: 5218.01 100%,26,Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/Tunneling An Example, Jiang, Lee and Yue, (2005),27,28,Chinas Stock Market: A ten-year perspective,From zero to an important emerging capital market First developed fast, then became stagnant: Fewer new listings Market index down Raises less capital Less trading activities Listed companies performed worse Overall Less important in the booming economy!,29,The Users of financial statements,Equity investors Creditors Government Customer Suppliers Labor union,30,课程结构,第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍 第二节 会计报表回顾-资产负债表 第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表 第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表 第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量 第六节 赢利能力分析 第七节 赢利预测 第八节 风险分析 第九节 证券价值评估,31,Perspectives of This Course,A security analysts perspective Emphasize two issues: Earnings Management and valuation,32,Earnings Management: Rao, Teoh, Wong, Review of Accounting Studies, 1998,33,Earnings Restatements Min Wu, HKUST,34,35,36,Widespread Earnings Manipulation (Jiang and Wang 2005),37,Accounting-based Valuation,Who are my peers? Earnings multiples, book-value multiples, sales multiples EVA, Economic value added, Residual income valuation (RIV), Edward, Bell, Ohlson Model (EBO) In one word, Share value = f (earnings, book value, dividend, cash flow, etc.),38,Accounting-based Valuation-2,Ultimately, we do valuation to earn higher returns on stock trading. We get an intrinsic value number, compare it to prevailing stock price, if our value estimate is higher than price, we buy; otherwise we sell. Frankel and Lee, Journal of Finance, 1999 To get papers mentioned, from a PKU computer, go to or just ask from me.,39,How Important is Accounting Information?,January 22, 2003, after market closed, AT&T (stock symbol T) announced: Revenue for 4th quarter shrank to $9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous year Loss from continuing operations widened to $611 million from $216 million.,40,How Important is Accounting Information? (http:),41,How Important is Accounting Information?,In the weekend before Monday, Feb. 3, 2003, Mattel (MAT) announced fourth quarter results: Revenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9% to $1.56 billion. Net income increased by 35% to $186.1 million. Earnings per share (EPS) increased to 42 cents from 31 cents.,42,How Important is Accounting Information?,43,Value Investing: Warren Buffett (),44,Investing Motto,Two friends went hunting in the jungle. All of a sudden, a bear jumped out of nowhere and came after them. A: Run! B: No, it is hopeless, we wont overrun a bear. A: But I do not have to run faster than the bear. I only need to run faster than you!,45,Questions on stock market?,46,作业,六人一组