《关于ECO的一个》PPT课件.ppt

,Inflation,Inflation,UNIT 7,Concept,Inflation,An increase in the general (average) price level of goods and services in the economy.,Deflation,A decrease in the general (average) price level of goods and services in the economy.,CPI,An index that measures changes in the average prices of consumer goods and services.,Compute,CPI,=,cost of the market basket of products at current-year prices,cost of the same market basket of products at base-year prices,100,Annual rate of inflation,=,CPI in given year CPI in previous year,CPI in previous year,100,中美近10年来CPIGDP对比图,China,America,contrast,CPI growth rate,Consumer price index criticism,Changes in the CPI are based on a typical basket of products purchased that does not match the actual market basket purchased by many consumers.,CPI 的变化是基于消费者购买的有代表性的一篮子商品，但他并不与市场中消费者实际购买的一篮子商品完全吻合。,The BLS has difficulty adjusting the CPI for changes in quality,统计当局很难根据商品质量的变化来调整CPI。,The use of a single base-year market basket ignores the law of demand.,只使用基准年的市场商品而忽略了需求法则,Consequences of inflation,Inflation shrinks income.,inflation and wealth,inflation and the real interest rate,Conclusion: people whose nominal incomes rise faster than rate of inflation gain purchasing power, while people whose nominal incomes do not keep pace with inflation lose.,Nominal interest rate: The actual rate of interest without adjustment for the inflation rate.,Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate inflation rate.,Conclusion: when the real rate of interest is negative, lenders and savers lose because interest earned dose not keep up with the inflation rate.,Demand-Pull and Cost-Push Inflation,Demand-pull inflation:,A rise in the general price level resulting from an excess of total spending (demand),Cost-push inflation:,An increase in the general price level resulting from an increase in the cost of production.,AS,Can be excepted,Demand-Pull Inflation,AD,AD,AD,AD,AD,AS,AS ,stagflation Cost-Push Inflation,The causes of inflation,Monetarist,Quantity theory of money : 经济体所耗货币总量取决于现存货币总量。,P = Dc / Sc (P :general consumer price level, DC : the total demand of consumer goods, SC : the total supply of consumer goods),相信物价上涨的唯一原因就是经济成长 .通货膨胀的控制有赖于货币上与财政上的限制, 着重于中央政府预算赤字与利率，以及经济生产力.也就是Cost - Pull Inflation,Monetarist,Keynesianism,Demand-Pull Inflation:通货膨胀发生于因GDP所产生的高需求与低失业，又称菲利普斯曲线型通货膨胀。,Cost - Pull Inflation: 又称供给震荡型通货膨胀（supply shock inflation）,Built-in inflation(固有型通货膨胀):因合理预期所引起，通常与物价薪资螺旋有关。被视为残留型通货膨胀，又称惯性通货膨胀，甚至是结构性通货膨胀。,Measuring Inflation,Price income,Service income,The Inflation rate为该项指数的上升幅度 而通货膨胀是指整体物价的上扬幅度。,CLI 生活指数,PPI 生产者物价指数,commodity price index 商品价格指数,GDP平减指数,PCEPI 个人消费支出价格指数,The impact of inflation on the economic life,在债务人与债权人之间，通货膨胀将有利于债务人而不利于债权人,在雇主与工人之间，通货膨胀将有利于雇主而不利于工人,在政府与公众之间，通货膨胀将有利于政府而不利于公众,划分通胀周期的三个标准,1,2,3,在通胀时间序列资料中， 波峰之后一定会有波谷,上升期或下降期对应的期间跨度至少9个月,周期间内的分界点为两个相邻周期的极值点,我国自1983年以来，已大 致经历了六个通胀周期。 自2009年8月开始，中国 已进入第七个通胀周期 。 国际金融危机的爆发使这 轮周期刚一启动便掉头向 下，但这论通胀周期曾在 进行中，表现在对CPI月 度数据滤波后的长期趋势 斜率不断抬高，通胀也将不断加剧,2010年的国内经济情况,央行年内连续多次提高存款准备金率，说明中央政府已经觉察到经济中的流动性资金过剩现象。 2010年10月份CPI已经达到4.40 %、市场中出现通胀现象都已引起中央政府的高度警觉。提高准备金率可以封锁商业银行的资金，限制资金的过快流动，有效地解决流动性资金过剩问题，从而有效地抑制通胀现象。 作为一个普通民众，我们更加关注的，是与自己息息相关的生活问题。今年全国各地都上调了最低工资标准，在物价上涨的今天这无疑是至关重要的。,不管是各地的工资调整，国家调整存款准备金率，还是全国的物价上涨，都 无一不显示出中国正处在这新一轮通货膨胀的水深火热之中。在第七个通货 膨胀周期中，价格上涨既有短期投机性因素的作用，更有长期周期性因素的 作用。因此，2011年的通胀形势更为严峻。高层对这轮通胀所