MBAC414-DecisionModeling-CaseWesternReserve…：MBAC414决策建模-凯斯西部保留地….doc

(PRELIMINARY) QUMM 414: Statistics and Decision ModelingInstructor #1:Kamlesh Mathur (), 329 Peter B. Lewis, phone: (216) 368-3837Office Hours:6:30 7:30 or by appointmentTeaching Assistant:Yi Wang (); phone: (216) 235-6462TA Office Hours:By appointmentInstructor #2:Daniel Solow (), 322 Peter B. Lewis, phone: (216) 368-3837Office Hours:7:45 8:15, after class, or by appointment.Teaching Assistant:Yi Wang (); phone: (216) 235-6462TA Office Hours:By appointmentFax:(216) 368-6250Dept. Administrator:Elaine Iannicelli (), 3rd floor Peter B. Lewis, phone: (216) 368-4141 Course Objectives: The primary objective of this course is to provide you with the ability to use and to communicate with those who use certain quantitative approaches to help make informed decisions for your organizations. A secondary objective is to provide you with the quantitative knowledge and skills that are needed in other MBA courses. The two groups of quantitative techniques are decision modeling and statistics.The objective of decision modeling is to develop mathematical models for a variety of business decision problems. Applications are drawn from manufacturing, transportation and distribution, marketing and finance. Because decision problems are usually complex, the mathematical models used to represent them are typically analyzed and solved using computer software (spreadsheet add-ons or dedicated programs). At the end of this part of the course you will be able to:1) Develop quantitative models for a wide class of business decision problems.2) Use computer software to obtain solutions to these models.3) Analyze the computer output and interpret the results in the context of the original problem.The objective of statistics is to summarize and present information contained in data sets, to draw conclusions about large populations based only on information obtained from samples, and, using these conclusions, to obtain reliable forecasts of quantities of interest. Among other things, statistical analysis provides many of the data needed in decision modeling. At the end of this part of the course you will be able to:1) Summarize data sets using either graphical techniques (histograms, pie charts, and so on) or descriptive statistics (mean, median, standard deviation, and so on).2) Use computer software to develop estimates and confidence intervals for means and proportions, and analyze the tradeoff between sample size and estimation risk.3) Use sample data either to support or reject claims about a large population; understand the concepts and consequences of type-1 and type-2 errors.4) Analyze relationships between two or more quantities of interest and use these relationships to make intelligent forecasts.Prerequisites: Each student is expected to demonstrate a working knowledge of the topics in elementary statistics listed on the attached pages by submitting on June 28 one homework assignment on these topics that counts 3% toward your final grade. For your benefit, these topics are taught in Stat Camp (/statcamp/PTstatcamp/default.htm) on two consecutive Saturdays from 9AM 4 PM (June 9 and June 16 in PBL 501). All students are encouraged to attend Stat Camp; however, if you cannot attend, then you may view videos of the lectures from a previous year on the web at the following addresses (which you can cut-and-paste into your web browser):rtsp://Faculty/SolowD/StatCamp/Stat_Camp_01_22_06_Final.rmrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/StatCamp/Statcamp_1_29_06_final.rmrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/StatCamp/StatCamp_02_05_06a.rmrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/StatCamp/StatCamp_02_05_06b.rmTo view these videos requires Real Player, which can be downloaded for free from the following site: /netzip/getrde601.html?h=&r=19a72eb68e47a9e80b14&f=windows/RealPlayer10-5GOLD_bb.exe&p=RealOne+Player&oem=dlrhap_bb_2&tagtype=ie&type=dlrhap_bb_2Course Materials: (ASW) Anderson, Sweeney and Williams, “Essentials of Statistics for Business and Economics” 4th ed., South-Western/Thompson Publishing Company, 2005, ISBN: 0-324-68164-X (required). (MS) Mathur and Solow, “Management Science” (selected chapters posted in Blackboard). SPSS Student version for Windows (comes bundled with the ASW text at the bookstore). WinStorm software (posted in Blackboard for you to download see last two pages for details). Other handouts and data files are posted in Blackboard (lecture notes will be distributed in class).Homeworks: Homework problems are assigned regularly and solutions posted on Blackboard one week after the assignment is due. Permission to hand in homework late should be obtained from the instructor prior to the due date; however, under no circumstances can homework be accepted after the solutions are posted. You can discuss homeworks with others; however, the detailed analysis and write up should be yours alone. Note: If you fax or e-mail your homework, check with the Teaching Assistant to verify that it was received.Projects: You will need to form yourselves into groups of 2 or 3 to do the two group projectsone in decision modeling and one in statistics.Exams: There are two open-book/notes exams: Decision Models on June 26 and Statistics on July 26.Grading (approximate): Stat Camp Homework 3% Homeworks and Projects 32%Decision Modeling Exam25%Statistics Exam 35%Course Conduct: All students in this course are expected to adhere to university Standards of Academic Integrity that outlines your responsibility in greater detail (a copy of these standards can be found at /pdpao/policy/policyhome.html). Cheating, plagiarism, and other forms of academic dishonesty will not be tolerated in this course. This includes, but is not limited to, consulting with another person during an exam, turning in written work that was prepared by someone other than you, and making minor modifications to the work of someone else and turning it in as your own. You may discuss homeworks with others, however, the detailed analysis and write up should be yours alone. For group projects, active participation by all members is expected. Inadequate participation by a team member should be reported in confidence to the instructor. If you are not sure whether something you plan to submit would be considered either cheating or plagiarism, it is your responsibility to ask for clarification. Ignorance will not be permitted as an excuse. Either ask me about it or consult credible sources of information on the subject. Another useful internet sites is: /wts/pamphlets/plagiarism.shtml.Computer Software and Online Resources: Computer Lab: PBL 07 (Lower Level); Phone: (216) 368-2626; Help Desk: (216) 368-4357Most of the materials and assignments require the use of computer software. There are several software packages that can be used. The examples and cases use SPSS for Statistics and Excel and WinStorm for Decision Modeling. Details pertaining to these software packages, as well as using the web-based Blackboard (where most course materials are posted and can be downloaded) follow.SPSSSPSS is a professional statistical software package used heavily by companies and also in several electives, especially in marketing. SPSS is installed in the computer lab, however, the student version comes bundled with your textbook. If you do not buy the textbook from the bookstore, make sure that you get the version with the SPSS software. The ISBN number for the ASW text with SPSS is 0-324-42564-3. To install SPSS on your computer, insert the CDROM into the CDROM drive, open Windows Explorer, go to the CDROM folder and follow the install instructions.Microsoft ExcelIn order to use Excel for this course, you will need to install two add-ins: the “Analysis Toolpack” for Statistics and “Solver” for Decision Modeling. To do this, open Excel, and click on Tools/Add-Ins. Check both Analysis Toolpack and Solver and click OK. From now on, in the Tools menu there should be two new options, Solver and Data Analysis. If you do not find either of the two modules in the add-in installation screen, or if the add-in option in the Tools menu is greyed out, you need to reinstall Excel from the Microsoft Office CDROM, with the Add-In modules activated. Ask the Computer Support Group (368-4357) for help if you dont know how to do this.WinStormWinStorm is general-purpose software for quantitative business methods but will be used in this course only for the Project Management portion of Decision Modeling. WinStorm is installed in the computer lab but you can download and install a copy on your own computer. A .zip file and instructions for doing so are posted in the Blackboard folder corresponding to the first day of class. Use of this package will be taught in class.BlackboardMost class handouts and other materials and files for this course are posted on the web in Blackboard folders, labeled by date of the class in which those materials are needed. Most of the posted material is in Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) format, except for some Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and SPSS data files. To read files in Acrobat format, you must have the Adobe Acrobat Reader (which you can download for free from the following URL: /products/acrobat/readstep.html). I also distribute hard copies of some materials in class, including copies of all of the lecture slides. However, if you miss a class or forget your copy at home, make sure you download an extra copy yourself, in case it is needed for the next class. Below is a description of how to access and download material from Blackboard using the web.Accessing Blackboard from the Web:1. Use your browser to go to 2. Click on “Login”.3. Type your CWRUNET User Name (for example, dxs8) and your Blackboard password and click on “login”. (If you do not have a Blackboard password, click on “Forgot your password?”, then fill in the top three boxes with your First Name, Last Name, and User Name (dxs8, for example). After clicking “Submit” in the lower right corner, you should receive an e-mail message with your Blackboard Password. If you have any problems, contact the Computer Support Group at (216) 368-4357 for help.)4. Near the top of the screen, select the tab labeled “My Courses”.5. Click on the course “QUMM 414”.6. On the left side of the screen, click on the blue box you want (for example, “Syllabus” or “Course Documents”).7. Click on the folder (and further subfolders) that you want until you see a list of available documents, each underlined in blue.8. Right click on the document you want to download and then left click on “Save Target As”. (Note: If you left click on this document, the contents of this document will appear on your screen and you can use the “Back” button to return to the list of available documents).9. In the box that appears, select the location (disk, drive, folder, and so on) where you want this file to be downloaded.10. Click the “Save” button on the lower right side of the box. 11. After the download is completed, close the new box that appears on the screen.12. Repeat Steps 6-11 for each file you want to save and then close Blackboard.SCHEDULE OF TOPICS FOR STATISTICS AND DECISION MODELING(If you miss a class, you can view a video taped version of the material for that lecture on the web by cutting and pasting the address listed below each lecture into your web browser, but you must have REAL PLAYER installed on your computer.)LectureDateTopicAssignment InformationReadings*16/5Course Overview; Building and Classifying Decision Modelsrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/QUMM414-Spring06/QUMM414_01_19_06.rmHW #1 Assigned; Stat Camp HW AssignedM & S Chap. 1 and Chap. 226/7Linear Programming: Models and Applicationsrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/QUMM414-Spring06/QUMM414_01_26_06.rmProject #1 Part I AssignedM & S Chap. 336/12Linear Programming: Obtaining, Interpreting, and Analyzing the Solutionrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/QUMM414-Spring06/QUMM414_02_02_06.rmHW #1 Due; HW #2 and Project #1 Part II AssignedM & S Chap. 646/14Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis Project Management: How Long Will it Take?rtsp://Faculty/SolowD/QUMM414-Spring06/QUMM414_02_09_06.rmProject #1 Part I Due; M & S Chap. 6 and 1056/19Project Management: Time-Cost Tradeoffsrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/QUMM414-Spring06/QUMM414_02_16_06.rmHW #2 and Project #1 Part II Due; HW #3 assignedM & S Chap. 1066/21Review of Normal Distribution and Central Limit Theoremrtsp://Faculty/SolowD/StatCamp/Statcamp_day4.rm (start at around 15 minutes)HW #3 due (No Late HW Allowed)ASW Chap. 6-76/26DECISION MODELS EXAM*Readings for Decision Modeling are optional and are from the book Management Science: The Art of Decision Making by Mathur and Solow. Appropriate chapters are posted as .pdf files in Blackboard.SCHEDULE OF TOPICS FOR STATISTICS AND DECISION MODELING(If you miss a class, you can view a video taped version of the material for that lecture on the web by cutting and pasting the address listed below each lecture into yo