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_12456Love and logic: The story of fallacy爱情与逻辑:谬误的故事I had my first date with Polly after I made the trade with my roommate Rob. That year every guy on campus had a leather jacket, and Rob couldnt stand the idea of being the only football player who didnt, so he made a pact that hed give me his girl in exchange for my jacket. He wasnt the brightest guy. Polly wasnt too shrewd, either.在我和室友罗伯的交易成功之后,我和波莉有了第一次约会。那一年校园里每个人都有件皮夹克,而罗伯是校足球队员中唯一一个没有皮夹克的,他一想到这个就受不了,于是他和我达成了一项协议,用他的女友换取我的夹克。他可不那么聪明,而他的女友波莉也不太精明。But she was pretty, well-off, didnt dye her hair strange colors or wear too much makeup. She had the right background to be the girlfriend of a dogged, brilliant lawyer. If I could show the elite law firms I applied to that I had a radiant, well-spoken counterpart by my side, I just might edge past the competition.但她漂亮而且富有,也没有把头发染成奇怪的颜色或是化很浓的妆。她拥有合适的家庭背景,足以胜任一名坚忍而睿智的律师的女友。如果我能够让我所申请的顶尖律师事务所看到我身边伴随着一位光彩照人、谈吐优雅的另一半,我就很有可能在竞聘中以微弱优势获胜。Radiant she was already. I could dispense her enough pearls of wisdom to make her well-spoken.“光彩照人”,她已经是了。而我也能施予她足够多的“智慧之珠”,让她变得“谈吐优雅”。After a banner day out, I drove until we were situated under a big old oak tree on a hill off the expressway. What I had in mind was a little eccentric. I thought the venue with a perfect view of the luminous city would lighten the mood. We stayed in the car, and I turned down the stereo and took my foot off the brake pedal. What are we going to talk about? she asked.在一起外出度过了美好的一天之后,我驱车来到了高速公路旁一座小山上一棵古老的大橡树下。我的想法有些怪异。而这个地方能够俯瞰灯火灿烂的城区,我觉得它会使人的心情变轻松。我们呆在车子里,我调低了音响并把脚从刹车上挪开。“我们要谈些什么?”她问道。Logic.“逻辑学。”Cool, she said over her gum.“好酷啊,”她一边嚼着口香糖一边说。 The doctrine of logic,” I said, is a staple of clear thinking. Failures in logic distort the truth, and some of them are well known. First lets look at the fallacy Dicto Simpliciter.“逻辑学的原理,”我说道,“即清晰思考的主要原则。逻辑上出现的问题会歪曲事实,其中有些还很普遍。我们先来看看一种叫做绝对判断的逻辑谬误。”Great,” she agreed.“好啊,”她表示同意。Dicto Simpliciter means an unqualified generalization. For example: Exercise is good. Therefore, everybody should exercise.“绝对判断是指在证据不足的情况下所作出的推断。比方说:运动是有益的,所以每个人都应该运动。She nodded in agreement.她点头表示赞同。I could see she was stumped. Polly, I explained, its too simple a generalization. If you have, say, heart disease or extreme obesity, exercise is bad, not good. Therefore, you must say exercise is good for most people.我看得出她没弄明白。“波莉,”我解释说,“这个推断太过简单化了。如果你有心脏病或者超级肥胖症什么的,运动就变得有害而不是有益。所以你应该说,运动对大多数人来说是有益的。”Next is Hasty Generalization. Self-explanatory, right? Listen carefully: You cant speak French. Rob cant speak French. Looks like nobody at this school can speak French.“接下来是草率结论。这似乎不言自明,对吧?仔细听好了:你不会说法语,罗伯也不会说法语,那么这所学校里好像是没有人会说法语。”Really? said Polly, amazed. Nobody?“是吗?”波莉吃惊地说。“没有人吗?”This is also a fallacy, I said. The generalization is reached too hastily. Too few instances support such a conclusion.“这也是一种逻辑谬误,”我说,“这一结论太草率了,因为能够支持这一结论的例证太少了。”She seemed to have a good time. I could safely say my plan was underway. I took her home and set a date for another conversation.她似乎学得很开心,而我也可以放心地说我的计划正在稳步推进中。我把她送回家,并且定下了下一次约会交谈的日子。Seated under the oak the next evening I said, Our first fallacy tonight is called Ad Misericordiam.第二天晚上,坐在那棵橡树下,我说:“今天晚上我们要谈的第一个逻辑谬误叫文不对题。”She nodded with delight.她高兴地点了点头。Listen closely, I said. A man applies for a job. When the boss asks him what his qualifications are, he says he has six children to feed.“听好了,”我说,“有个人去申请工作,当老板问他有什么应聘资格时,他说他有六个孩子要抚养。”Oh, this is awful, awful, she whispered in a choked voice.“哇,这太可怕了,太可怕了,”她哽咽着轻声说到。Yes, its awful, I agreed, but its no argument. The man never answered the bosss question. Instead he appealed to the bosss sympathy - Ad Misericordiam.“对,是挺可怕的,”我表示赞同地说,“但这不是理由。这个人根本没有回答老板的问题,而只是在博取老板的同情,这就是文不对题。”She blinked, still trying hard to keep back her tears.她眨着眼睛,仍在竭力地忍住眼泪。Next, I said carefully, we will discuss False Analogy. An example, students should be allowed to look at their textbooks during exams, because surgeons have X-rays to guide them during surgery.“接下来”,我小心地说,“我们来讨论错误类比。举个例子:学生考试时应该允许看课本,因为外科医生在做手术时可以看 X 光片。”I like that idea, she said.“我喜欢这个主意,”她说。Polly, I groaned, dont derail the discussion. The inference is wrong. Doctors arent taking a test to see how much they have learned, but students are. The situations are altogether different. You cant make an analogy between them.“波莉,”我抱怨道,“别打岔,这一推论是错误的。医生们不是在参加考试以检查他们学到了多少,而学生却是。他们的情况完全不同,你不能将他们作类比。”I still think its a good idea, said Polly.“我仍然认为这是一个好主意,”波莉说。With five nights of diligent work, I actually made a logician out of Polly. She was an analytical thinker at last. The time had come for the conversion of our relationship from academic to romantic.经过五个夜晚的辛勤努力,我竟然真的将波莉打造成了一个逻辑行家,她总算能够分析思考了。现在应该是时候让我们的关系从学术向浪漫发展了。Polly, I said when next we sat under our oak, tonight we wont discuss fallacies.“波莉,”当我们又一次坐在那棵橡树下的时候我对她说,“今晚我们不讨论逻辑谬误了。”Oh? she said, a little disappointed.“哦?”她回答说,有一点失望。Favoring her with a grin, I said, We have now spent five evenings together. We get along pretty well. We make a pretty good couple.我赞许地对她笑了笑,说:“我们在一起已经度过了五个晚上,相互之间挺合得来,我们是蛮相配的一对。”Hasty Generalization, said Polly brightly. Or as a normal person might say, thats a little premature, dont you think?“草率结论,”波莉伶俐地说,“或者是按一般人的说法,这个结论有些不成熟,你不这样认为吗?”I laughed with amusement. Shed learned her lessons well, far surpassing my expectations. Sweetheart, I said, patting her hand in a tolerant manner, five dates is plenty. After all, you dont have to eat a whole cake to know its good.我被逗得笑了起来,她功课还真学得不错,大大超过了我的预期。“亲爱的,”我开口说,同时宽容地拍了拍她的手,“五次约会已经够多了,毕竟你不需要吃掉整个蛋糕才知道它是不是好吃。”False Analogy, said Polly promptly.Your premise is that dating is like eating. But youre not a cake. Youre a boy.“错误类比,”波莉立即回应。“你的前提是约会就如同吃东西。可你不是蛋糕,你是个男孩。”I laughed with somewhat less amusement, hiding my dread that shed learned her lessons too well.A few more false steps would be my doom. I decided to change tactics and try flattery instead.我又笑了笑,不过不觉得那么有趣了,同时还不能表露出我害怕她学得太好了。再错几步我可就无法挽回了。我决定改变策略,转而尝试奉承她的办法。Polly, I love you. Please say youll go out with me. Im nothing without you.“波莉,我爱你。请答应做我的女朋友,没有你我什么也不是。”Ad Misericordiam, she said.“文不对题,”她说。You certainly can discern a fallacy when you see it, I said, my hopes starting to crumble.But dont take them so literally. I mean this is all academic. You know the things you learn in school dont have anything to do with real life.“你还真是能在遇到逻辑谬误时一一辨别它们了,”我说,心里的希望已经开始动摇。“不过不要对它们太死板,我是说这都是些学术的东西。你知道,学校里学的东西和实际生活根本没有什么联系。”Dicto Simpliciter, she said. Besides, you really should practice what you preach.“绝对判断,”她说道,“而且,你自己教的东西应该自己身体力行。”I leaped to my feet, my temper flaring up. Will you or will you not go out with me?我一下跳了起来,怒火中烧,“你到底愿不愿意做我的女朋友?”No to your proposition, she replied.“我不愿意,”她答道。Why? I demanded.“为什么?”我追问道.Im more interested in a different petitioner - Rob and I are back together.“我对另一位求爱者更感兴趣罗伯和我重归于好了。”With great effort, I said calmly, How could you give me the axe over Rob?Look at me, an ingenious student, a tremendous intellectual, a man with an assured future.Look at Rob,a muscular idiot,a guy wholl never where his next meal is coming from.Can you give me one good reason why you should be with him?”我极力地保持着平静,说道:“你怎么会甩了我而选择罗伯?看看我,一个聪明过人的学生,一个不同凡响的学者,一个前途无量的人。再看看罗伯,一个肌肉发达的蠢材,一个有了上顿没下顿的家伙。你是否能给我一个充足的理由,为什么要选择跟他?”Wow, what presumption! Ill put it in a way someone as brilliant as you can understand,”retorted Polly,her voice dripping with sarcasm.”Full disclosure -I like Rob in leather.I told him to say yes to you so he should have your jacket!” “喔,这是什么假设啊!为了让像你这样聪明的人能够明白,我这么说吧,”波莉反驳道,声音里充满了讽刺,“事情的真相是我喜欢罗伯穿皮衣。是我让他同意你们的协议的,这样他就能拥有你的夹克!”Unit 2The confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的对美的追求If youre a man, at some point a woman will ask you how she looks.如果你是一位男士,肯定在某个时候会有女士问你她看起来怎么样。You must be careful how you answer this question. The best technique is to form an honest yet sensitive response, then promptly excuse yourself for some kind of emergency. Trust me, this is the easiest way out. No amount of rehearsal will help you come up with the right answer.对于如何应对这个问题,你一定得小心。最好的对策就是给一个诚实但又谨慎的回答,然后借口有急事马上脱身。相信我,这是最简单的方法。对于她的这一问题,无论你事先练习多少次,都不会找到正确答案。The problem is that men do not think of their looks in the same way women do. Most men form an opinion of themselves in seventh grade and stick to it for the rest of their lives. Some men think theyre irresistibly desirable, and they refuse to change this opinion even when they grow bald and their faces visibly wrinkle as they age.其原因是,男性和女性对外表的看法截然不同。大多数男性对自己外表的评价在七年级时就形成了,而且终生不变。有些男性认为自己有不可抗拒的魅力,即使随着年龄的增长,他们头发掉光了,脸上布满皱纹,他们仍然拒绝改变这种看法。Most men, I believe, are not arrogant about their looks. If the transient thought passes through their minds at all, they like to think of themselves as average-looking. Being average doesnt bother them; average is fine. They dont affix much value to their looks, or think of them in terms of aesthetics. Their primary form of beauty care is to shave themselves, which is essentially the same care they give to their lawns. If, at the end of his four-minute allotment of time for grooming, a man has managed to wipe most of the shaving cream out of the strands of his hair and isnt bleeding too badly, he feels hes done all he can.我相信,大多数男性都不会对自己的相貌感到过分自傲。如果他们偶尔想到自己外表的话,他们愿意认为自己样貌中等。长相普通不会使他们有任何烦恼,因为普通就已经是很好了。男性不是特别注重自己的外貌,也不会从美学的角度去审视自己。他们的打扮方式主要就是刮刮胡子,就像打理自家草坪一样。对于一位男性来说,如果能花四分钟刮刮胡子,结束之后再把粘到头发上的剃须膏擦净,又没有出血太厉害,他就觉得自己已经尽心尽力了。Women do not look at themselves this way. If I had to guess what most women think about their appearance, it would be: Not good enough. No matter how attractive a woman may be, her perception of herself is eclipsed by the beauty industry. She has trouble thinking Im beautiful, She magnifies the smallest imperfections in her body and imagines them as glaring flaws the whole world will notice and ridicule.女性可不是这样看待自己的。如果非要我猜测大多数女性对自己的相貌是如何评价的话,那肯定是:“还不够好。”一位女士,无论她看起来多么吸引人,她对自己的看法总是由于受美容业的影响而蒙着一层阴影。要她认为“我很漂亮”是一件难事。她把身体上的极小的不完美之处加以放大,并且幻想这些缺点十分明显,以至于全世界的人都会注意到并且嘲笑她。Why do women consider their looks so deficient? This chronic insecurity isnt inborn, but created through the interaction of many complex psychological and societal factors, beginning with the dolls we give them as children. Girls grow up playing with dolls proportioned so that, if they were human, they would be seven feet tall and weigh 61 pounds, with tiny thighs and a large upper body. This is an absurd standard to live up to, especially when you consider the size of the dolls waist, a relative measurement physically impossible for a living human to achieve. Contrast this absurd standard with that presented to little boys with their action figures. Most of the toys that young boys have played with were weird-looking, like the one called Buzz-Off that was part human, part flying insect. This guy was not a looker, but he was still extremely self-confident. You could not imagine him saying to the others, Is this accessory the right shade of violet for this outfit?为什么女性会把自己的外貌想得这么差呢?这种长期的不安全感并不是与生倶来的,而是由许多复杂的心理和社会因素的相互作用造成的,从小时候大人们给她们买洋娃娃时就开始了。女孩成长过程中摆弄的洋娃娃,如果按照身材比例还原为真人大小的话,就会是 7 英尺高,61 英磅重,大腿纤细,上身丰满。要达到这样的标准是很荒唐的,尤其是当我们想想那种洋娃娃的腰围尺寸,就知道其相对尺寸对任何一个活人来说都是不可企及的。与女孩玩具的这种荒唐标准相比,小男孩们得到的“动作玩偶”却是完全不同的模样。大多数男孩的玩具都样貌古怪,例如那个叫作“蜜蜂侠”的玩偶,一半像人,一半像会飞的昆虫。这个玩偶尽管样子不好看,但仍然非常自信。你肯定无法想象他会问别人说:“这个配饰的紫罗兰色和这件外套配不配呢?”But women grow up thinking they need to look like Barbie dolls or girls on magazine covers, which for most women is impossible. Nonetheless, the multibillion-dollar beauty industry, complete with its own aisle in the grocery store, is devoted to constant warfare on female self-esteem, convincing women that they must buy all the newest moisturizing creams, bronzing powders and appliances that promise to stimulate and restore their skin. I once saw an Oprah Show in which supermodel Cindy Crawford dispensed makeup tips to the studio audience. Cindy had all these middle-aged women apply clay masks and other wrinkle-removing products to their faces; she stressed how important it was to adhere to the guidelines, like applying products via the tips of their fingers to protect elasticity. All the women dutifully did this, even though it was obvious to any rational observer that, no matter how carefully they applied these products, they would never have Cindy Crawfords face or complexion.然而,女性在成长过程中却认为自己应该长得像芭比娃娃或杂志的封面女郎那样,这对大多数女性来说是不可能的。尽管如此,产值达几十亿美元的美容业,在超市化妆品销售专区的配合下,总是在不停地攻击着女性的自尊,使其相信自己只有购买最新的保湿面霜、古铜散粉,以及各种美容器具,才能“激发和恢复”肌肤活力。我曾经看过一期奥普拉脱口秀,在节目中,超级名模辛迪克劳馥和演播室里的观众分享了自己的化妆秘诀。辛迪要求这些中年妇女在脸上敷上黏土面膜和其他去皱产品;她还强调一定要遵守这些方法,例如:往脸上涂抹这些产品时,要用指尖,这样可以保护皮肤的弹性。所有这些妇女都非常忠实地按照辛迪说的做了。可是对任何一个理智的旁观者来说,无论她们如何认真地使用这些产品,她们都不可能拥有辛迪那样的面容或肤色。Im not saying that men are superior. Im just saying that youre not going to get a group of middle-aged men to plaster cosmetics to themselves under the instruction of Brad Pitt in hopes of looking more like him. Men dont face the same societal focus purely on physical beauty, and theyre encouraged to reach out to other characteristics to promote their self-esteem. They might say to Brad: Oh yeah? Well, what do you know about lawn care, pretty boy?我并不是说男性优于女性。我的意思是你不可能让一群中年男子在布拉德皮特的指导下把化妆品敷到自己脸上,期望自己能看起来更像布拉德。与女性不同,男性的外貌美不是社会所关注的唯一焦点。人们会鼓励男性借助其他特征来提升自尊。他们也许会对布拉德说:“是吗?那么帅哥,你对草坪维护又知道多少?”Of course women argue that they become obsessed with appearance as a reaction to pressure from men. The truth is that most men think beauty is more than just lipstick and perfume and take no notice of these extra details. I have never once, in more than 40 years of listening to men talk about women, heard a man say, She had gorgeous fingernails! To most men, little things like fingernails are all homogeneous anyway, and one womans flawless pink polish is exactly as invisible as anothers bare nails.当然,女性会争辩说她们对外表的热衷追求是出于对来自男性的压力的一种反应。而事实是,大多数男性认为美丽不仅仅来自于口红和香水,而且他们也不会去注意这些额外的细节。四十多年来,我在听男性谈论女性时,从来没有一次听到过哪位男性这样说:“她的指甲真漂亮啊!”对大多数男性来说,像指甲这样小的东西看起来都一样,无论一个女士的指甲是用粉色指甲油涂得完美无瑕,还是光光的毫无修饰,男性都一概视而不见。By participating in this system of extreme conformity, women are actually opening themselves up to the scrutiny of other women, the only ones qualified to judge their efforts. What is the real benefit of working this hard to appease men who dont notice when it only exposes women to prosecution from other women?女性参与这种极端的从众行为,实际上是把自己置于其他女性的审视之下,因为只有那些女性才有资格评价她们所付出的努力。但是,如此费力地去取悦男性而他们却根本不会注意,同时又只是招致其他女性的指责,这样做究竟有什么好处呢?Anyway, to get back to my original point: If youre a man, and a woman asks you how she looks, you cant say she looks bad without receiving immediate and well-deserved outrage. But you also cant shower her with empty compliments about how her shoes complement her dress nicely because shell know youre lying. She has spent countless hours worrying about the differences between her looks and Cindy Crawfords. Also,she suspects that youre not qualified to voice a subjective opinion on anybodys appearance. This may be because you have shaving cream in your hair and inside the folds of your ears.不管怎样,言归正传:如果你是一位男性,当有女士问你她看起来怎么样时,你千万不能说她看起来很糟糕,那样肯定会使她立刻迁怒于你,这也是你咎由自取。但是,你也不能慷慨地大放空洞之词,赞美她的鞋子和裙子是多么相配,因为她知道你是在说谎。她已经花费了无数个小时发愁自己的容貌不能和辛迪克劳馥的一样。而且,也许因为你的头发和耳廓上粘着剃须膏,她会怀疑你根本没有资格对任何人的外表给出主观评价。Unit 4Achieving sustainable environmentalism实现可持续性发展的环保主义Environmental sensitivity is now as required an attitude in polite society as is, say, belief in democracy or disapproval of plastic surgery. But now that everyone from Ted Turner to George H. W. Bush has claimed love for Mother Earth, how are we to choose among the dozens of conflicting proposals, regulations and laws advanced by congressmen and constituents alike in the name of the environment? Clearly, not everything with an environmental claim is worth doing. How do we segregate the best options and consolidate our varying interests into a single, sound policy?在上流社会,对环境的敏感就如同信仰民主、反对整容一样,是一种不可或缺的态度。然而,既然从泰德特纳到乔治W.H.布什,每个人都声称自己热爱地球母亲,那么,在由议员、选民之类的人以环境名义而提出的众多的相互矛盾的提案、规章和法规中,我们又该如何做出选择呢?显而易见,并不是每一项冠以环境保护名义的事情都值得去做。我们怎样才能分离出最佳选择,并且把我们各自不同的兴趣统一在同一个合理的政策当中呢?There is a simple way. First, differentiate between environmental luxuries and environmental necessities. Luxuries are those things that would be nice to have if costless. Necessities are those things we must have regardless. Call this distinction the definitive rule of sane environmentalism, which stipulates that combating ecological change that directly threatens the health and safety of people is an environmental necessity. All else is luxury.有一种简便的方法。首先要区分什么是环境奢侈品,什么是环境必需品。奢侈品是指那些无需人类付出代价就能拥有的给人美好感受的东西。必需品则是指那些无论付出什么代价,都一定要去拥有的东西。这一区分原则可以被称为理性环保主义的至高原则。它规定,对那些直接威胁人类健康与安全的生态变化采取应对措施是环境保护的必需品,而其他则都属于奢侈品。For example, preserving the atmosphere - stopping ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect - is an environmental necessity. Recently, scientists reported that ozone damage is far worse than previously thought. Ozone depletion has a correlation not only with skin cancer and eye problems, it also destroys the oceans ecology, the beginning of the food chain atop which we humans sit.例如,保护大气层阻止臭氧损耗及控制温室效应是环境保护的必需品。近来,科学家报告说臭氧层遭受破坏的程度远比我们先前认为的要严重得多。臭氧损耗不仅与皮肤癌及眼疾有关,而且它还会破坏海洋生态。而海洋生态是食物链的起点,人类则位于该食物链的顶端。The possible thermal consequences of the greenhouse effect are far deadlier: melting ice caps, flooded coastlines, disrupted climate, dry plains and, ultimately, empty breadbaskets. The American Midwest feeds people at all corners of the atlas. With the planetary climate changes, are we prepared to see Iowa take on New Mexicos desert climate, or Siberia take on Iowas moderate climate?温室效应所可能引发的热效应是非常具有毁灭性的:冰川融化、海

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