项目管理 Managing Risk.ppt

Chapter Seven: Managing Risk,Great deeds are usually wrought at great risk. -Herodotus, Greek historian,Overview综述,In the context of projects, risk is the chance that an undesirable event will occur and the consequences of all its possible outcomes. Project risks are those events that, if they materialize, can delay or kill a project. (207-2-4) The cost impact of a risk event in the project is less if the event occurs earlier rather than later.(207-4-4)项目中风险事件发生的越早，它的成本影响也就越小。,Risk Event Graph 风险事件图,设计阶段,生产样品阶段,什么是风险？,任何可能出现的条件或事件，一但发生，对项目会造成损害 风险是不确定的条件或事件 风险管理的目的是使风险对项目的影响最小 今天的风险可能是明天的问题（麻烦）,经济（融资、成本、地区GDP水平等） 政治（法律法规、审批程序、社区压力等） 市场（客户的成熟度、客户需求变化、市场规范度等） 技术（行业技术更新速度、技术领先程度、技术复杂程度） 管理（管理者素质、员工素质、项目管理程序等） 契约（合同漏洞、违约行为等） 环境（交通运输、物质处理、施工方法等） 自然灾害,项目风险来源,财务风险(Financial Risk) ：超预算风险。 时间风险(Time Risk) ：超出进度安排限度的风险。这种风险比财务风险具有更严重的后果。 设计风险(Design Risk) ：是指由于不能满足项目的技术要求而导致的风险。由于额外的资源将被使用以满足项目的技术性要求，成本溢出将非常巨大。设计风险是三种风险中最大的一种。,项目风险类型,风险数据库,一个全部项目均可使用的中心风险数据库帮助会非常大,风险类别,高 中 低,低 中 高,高机遇 高风险,高机遇 低风险,低机遇 高风险,低机遇 低风险,风险评估,机遇评估,项目与风险,Risk management attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when the project is implemented. Risk management identifies as many risk events as possible (what can go wrong), minimizes their impact (what can be done about the event before the project begins), manages responses to those events that do materialize (contingency plans), and provides contingency funds to cover risk events that actually materialize. (207-3-1)风险管理就是尽可能地识别和管理项目实施过程中潜在的和未曾预见的麻烦。风险管理要尽可能多地识别风险事件（什么可能会出错），使他们的影响降到最小（在项目开始之前对于这种事件可以做些什么），管理当那些事件出现时对他们的反应（应变计划），并提供应急基金来应付实际出现的风险事件。,Risk management is a proactive approach rather than reactive. It is a preventive process designed to ensure that surprises are reduced and that negative consequences associated with undesirable events are minimized. (208-3-1),风险 /变化控制,项目风险 突如其来的变化 未能及时预测的可能事件发生 未能及时有效控制的偏差恶化 重大失误 项目变更 主观、客观、甲方、乙方、可能发生的、无法预测的 变更导致一些活动的增删或重新排序，甚至引起工期、成本变化，因而需要修订项目基准计划。 不变是相对的，变是绝对的； 因此，及时有效的应变即为风险变化控制。,Risk Management Process Step 1: Risk Identification Step 2: Risk Assessment Step 3: Risk Response Development Step 4: Risk Response Control,The Risk Management Process风险管理过程,从“救火”和“危机管理”到预先决策,风险管理并不能保证成功但增加成功的概率,7.1: Risk Identification识别风险,One common mistake is made early in the risk identification process is to focus on consequences and not on the events that could produce consequences. (209-2-1)风险识别阶段早期常见的一个错误是看中结果而不是造成这一结果的事件。 The focus in the beginning should be on risks that can affect the whole project as opposed to a specific section of the project or network. After the macro risks have been identified, specific areas can be checked. (2009-3-1)一开始应集中关注那些对整个项目而不是某个特定部分有影响的风险因素。当宏观的风险找出后，再对具体方面进行检查。,抓 住 来 源,Two tools: An effective tool for identifying specific risks is the work breakdown structure (WBS). Use of the WBS reduces the chance a risk event will be missed.(209-3-3)识别具体风险的有效工具是工作分解结构，借此可以减少风险事件被忽略的可能。 A risk profile is another tool that can help management teams identify and eventually analyze risks. (210-2-1)风险说明是帮助管理团队识别并最终分析风险的另外一个工具。 Risk profiles recognize the unique strengths and weaknesses of the firm. Finally, risk profiles address both technical and management risks.(210-3-3)风险说明体现企业独特强势和弱势。最后，风险说明突出技术和管理风险。,7.2: Risk Assessment评估风险,Scenario analysis is the easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks. Team members assess each risk in terms of: (211-5-1) The undesirable event. All the outcomes of the events occurrence. The magnitude or severity of the events impact. Chances/probability of the event happening. When the event might occur in the project. Interaction with other parts of this or other projects.,情景分析是最简单和最常用的风险分析技术。团队成员针对以下几个方面对每个风险进行分析： 不希望发生的事件； 事件发生的所有后果； 事件影响的大小或严重性； 事件发生的可能性/概率； 事件可能会何时在项目中发生； 和其他项目或本项目的其他部分之间的相互影响。,风险评估,帮助我们了解风险和识别那些重要的值得处理的风险 -风险识别 -风险分析 -风险优先级排序,Often organizations find it useful to categorize the severity of different risks into some form of risk assessment matrix. The matrix is typically structured around the impact and likelihood of the risk event. (212-2-1)组织经常发现，将不同风险的严重程度进行分类，填入某种形式的风险程度评估矩阵中很有用。矩阵一般围绕着风险事件的影响和发生概率而构建起来。 The risk severity matrix provides a basis for prioritizing which risks to address. (212-5-1)风险程度矩阵提供了哪些风险值得优先考虑的依据。,Risk Response Form 风险评估表,Risk Severity Matrix 风险严重程度矩阵,项目风险样本清单,风险分析,风险排序,将风险排序以识别必须控制的风险 使用概率等和影响信息,Assessments are either subjective or quantitative. (212-6-1)风险评价要么是主观的要么是量化的。 Quantitative methods usually require more detailed analysis of facts and tend to be more reliable. Typical quantitative methods are ratio analysis, probability analysis, sensitivity analysis: (213-6-4)量化方法通常需要对事实进行更详细的分析，往往较为可靠。典型的量化方法是:比率分析、概率分析、敏感性分析。,7.2.1: Ratio/Range Analysis 比率/范围分析,This technique uses data from prior projects that are similar to the proposed project. It assumes a ratio between the old and new project to make a point estimate of time, cost, or technology and a low and high range for the estimate. The ratio typically serves as a constant.(213-3-1)这一技术使用以往相似的项目的数据。假设在旧项目和新项目之间存在一种比率，以便做出关于时间、成本和技术的数字预测，并得到预测的下线和上线。比率一般是一个常数。,7.2.2: Hybrid Analysis Approaches 混合分析方法,Managers are comfortable using rules of thumb combined with subjective judgments. (213-4-8)管理人员对于将经验规则和主观判断结合在一起使用感到满意。,7.2.3: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)失效模型和效果分析,This quality tool is a variation of the risk severity matrix discussed earlier. Each risk is assessed in terms of the following score: (214-2-1)这个质量工具是风险程度矩阵的变异，每个风险按以下的分数进行评估： Impact * Probability * Detection = Risk Value 影响值*概率*发现值=风险值 Each of the three dimensions is rated according to a five-point scale.三个因素的每一个部分都分为5级。 This broad range of numerical scores allows for easy stratification of risk according to overall significance. (214-2-13)较宽的数值范围使风险程度的判断更加容易。,7.2.4: Probability Analysis概率分析：,There are many statistical techniques available to the project manager that can assist in assessing project risk. (214-3-1)项目经理可以使用许多统计技术来进行项目风险评价： Decision trees have been used to assess alternative courses of action using expected values.决策树可以用来根据期望值评估替代性行动过程。 Statistical variations of net present value (NPV) have been used to assess cash flow risks in projects.,PERT (program evaluation and review technique) and PERT simulation can be used to review activity and project risk. The use of PERT simulation is the simulation is increasing because it uses the same data required for PERT, and software to perform the simulation is readily available. (214-3-6)还可以用项目评审技术和PERT仿真来检查活动及项目风险。PERT仿真更常用的原因是，它使用和PERT相同的数据，而且完成这些仿真的软件很容易获得。,7.2.5: Scenario Analysis: Semiquantitative情景分析：半定量法,The scenario analysis begins with the baseline schedule, which typically represents average time and implies there is a 50/50 chance of completing the project schedule early or late. Risk team members are checked to be sure they are 90 (or 95) percent confident that the schedules duration is about average.(215)情景分析始于基准线进度计划，它通常代表了平均时间，表明完成项目进度计划或存在延迟的可能性各占一半。风险团队成员要进行检查以保证他们有90%的把握使项目的时间长度在平均水平之上。,Risk Schedules 风险进度计划,7.3: Risk Response Development应对风险,Responses to risk can be classified as (216-2-2)对风险的反应可以分为: Mitigating risk 降低风险 Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered. two strategies: (216-3-1)降低风险通常是首选的风险应对措施。两种战略： reduce the likelihood that the event will occur and/or 降低事件发生的可能性； reduce the impact that the adverse event would have on the project.减少事件发生后对项目的负面影响。,transferring risk 转移 This transfer dose not change risk. Passing risk to another party almost always results in paying a premium for this exemption. (216-5-1)转移风险不会改变风险。将风险转到另一方几乎，当然总是会因转移风险而支付额外费用。 sharing risk 分担 Risk sharing allocates proportions of risk to different parties. (217-2-1)分担风险是将风险各部分分配到各方。 Sharing risk has drawn more attention in recent years as a motivation for reducing risk and, in some cases, cutting project cost. (217-3-1)作为降低风险以及在一些情形中削减项目成本的一种方式，分担风险在近些年受到了更多关注。 Usually the risk costs and benefits of the improved process are shared on a 50/50 basis between the owner and contracting firms. (218-1-4)改进过程的风险成本和收益在业主和承包企业之间以各占一半的方式分享。,Retaining risk 保留 In some cases a conscious decision is made to retain the risk of an event occurring. (218-2-1)在有些情形中，会有意识地决定保留一种事件发生的风险。 在项目开始之前投入风险应对的努力越多，就越有可能让项目意外降到最少。知道对风险事件可以作出保留、转移或分担等反应，极大地降低了风险事件发生时的压力和不确定性。,项目风险分析后的应对措施,通用的减轻风险措施清单,通用的减轻风险措施清单不仅可帮助项目领导识别风险，而且可帮助项目领导选择减轻风险措施,风险计划,What, when, how, who,7.3.1: Contingency Planning应变计划,Definition: A contingency plan is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event becomes a reality. The contingency plan represents preventive actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact of the risk event. (218-4-1)应变计划是欲知风险事件发生后可能使用的替代性计划。应变计划代表了降低或减轻风险事件负面影响的预防性行为。 The plan should include a cost estimate and identify the source of funding. (218-5-2)计划应包括成本预测和融资渠道的确认。,Risk Response Matrix风险反应矩阵,Function: The absence of a contingency plan, when a risk event occurs, can cause a manager to delay or postpone the decision to implement a remedy. This postponement can lead to panic, crisis mismanagement, and acceptance of the first remedy suggested. Such after-the-event decision making under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly. (218-4-4)风险事件发生时没有应变计划，会导致管理人员延误或推迟实施挽回行动。这种延迟可能会导致恐慌、对危机的管理不当和对第一种挽回行动的采纳。这种在事件发生后的压力下形成的决策，可能具有潜在的危险性并且成本较高。,风险应对样本,项目案例风险应对计划,The common methods for handling all kinds of risks: Technical Risks Schedule Risks Cost Risks Funding Risks,Technical Risks Technical risks are problematic; they can often be the kind that cause the project to be shut down. (219-3-1) Contingency or backup plans are made for those possibilities that are foreseen. (219-3-2) In addition to backup strategies, project managers need to develop methods to quickly assess whether technical uncertainties can be resolved. (220-2-1)在后备策略之外，项目经理需要寻找方法来快速评价是否可以解决技术上的不确定性。 By isolating and testing the key technical questions early on in a project, project feasibility can be quickly determined and necessary adjustments made. (221-1-5),Schedule Risks Managing scheduling risk usually requires tread-off decisions. It is ironic that practicing managers actually increase schedule risk by some of their decisions. Three of those situations are examined below. (221-2)管理进度风险通常需要进行决策权衡。具有讽刺意味的是，实践中项目经理的一些决策实际上增加了风险，以下考察三种情形。 Use of Slack使用时差 Use of slack moves more activities nearer their late start, and thus the risk of project delay is increased. (221-3-5),Imposed Duration Dates强加的日期 Our experience suggests that about 80 percent of all projects have imposed duration dates. (221-4-1)经验说明，所有项目中大约80 %具有强加的完成日期。 Compression of Project Schedules项目进度的压缩 Compressing the critical path decreases total slack on other paths, and more paths become critical or near critical. The more critical activities or near-critical activities there are, the higher the risk of delaying project completion. (221-5-4)压缩关键路径降低了其他路径上的总时差，使更多路径变为关键路径。关键或接近关键的活动越多，项目完工延误的风险也就越高。,进度追回的方法,Cost Risks Time/Cost Dependency Link时间/成本关联 There is a dependency link between time and cost and technical problems and cost. (222-2-1)在时间和成本之间以及技术问题和成本之间存在相互依赖的关系。 Cash flow decision现金流决策 Some cash flow decisions can heighten schedule risks. (222-3-1)一些现金流决策会增加进度风险 Price Protection Risks价格保护风险 Those that may change should be identified and estimates made of the magnitude of change. This approach ensures control of the contingency funds as the project is implemented. (222-4-7)对可能变化的那些因素应加以识别，变动的幅度也要予以估计。这一方法保证了项目实施对应急基金的控制。,Funding Risks Just as government projects are subject to changes in political structure and national agenda, business firms frequently undergo changes in priorities and top management. (223-1-1)如同政府项目受政治结构和国家计划的变化影响，企业的优先级和高管层的变动也会对项目造成影响。 Severe budget cuts or lack of adequate funding can have a devastating effect on a project. Typically, when such a fate occurs, there is a need to scale back the scope of the project to what is possible. “All-or-nothing projects” are ripe targets to budget cutters. (223-2-1),7.3.2: Contingency funding应急基金,Contingency funds are established to cover errors in estimates, omissions, and uncertainties that may materialize as the project is implemented. (223-4-1)要建立应急基金来应付项目实施时可能会出现的估计误差、遗漏和不确定性。 The size and amount of contingency reserves depends on “newness” of the project, inaccurate time and cost estimates, technical problems, minor changes in scope, and problems not anticipated. (223-5-1),Budget Reserves Budget reserves are those allocated to specific segments or deliverables of the project. (223-5-11)预算储备是分配给特定项目段或可交付物的那些储备。 Management Reserves Management reserves are those allocated to risks associated with the total project. (223-5-12)管理储备是分配给和整个项目相关的风险储备。,Budget Reserves These reserves are identified for specific work packages or segments of a project found in the baseline budget or work breakdown structure. Budget reserves are for identified risks that have a low chance of occurring. (223-6-1)预算储备针对基准线预算或工作分解结构中的特定工作包或项目阶段，针对的是发生概率低的已识别风险。 The budget reserves should be communicated to the project team. This openness suggests trust and encourages good cost performance. However, distributing budget reserves should be the responsibility of both the project manager and the team members responsible for implementing the specific segment of the project. If the risk does not materialize, the funds are returned to the management reserve. Thus, budget reserves decrease as the project progresses. (224-1-1)预算储备应传达给项目团队。这一公开性体现了信任并鼓励良好的成本绩效。不过，分配预算储备应是项目经理和负责完成特定项目段的团队成员共同的责任。如果风险没有出现，则基金返回给管理储备。因此预算储备随项目的进展而减少。,Management Reserves These reserve funds are needed to cover major unforeseen and potential risk and hence, are applied to the total project. (224-2-1)需要管理储备基金来应付重大意外的风险，因此应用于整个项目。 Most management reserves are set using historical data and judgments concerning the uniqueness of the project. (224-2-8)绝大多数管理储备使用历史数据和关于项目独特性的判断来建立。 Placing technical contingencies in the management reserve is a special case. (224-3-1)将技术应变计划置于管理储备中是一种特例。 The owner and project manager decide when the contingency plan will be implemented and the reserve funds used. (224-3-6)由业主或高层控制。业主和项目经理决定何时实施应变计划和使用储备基金。,将技术应变计划置于管理储备中是一种特例。识别可能的技术（性能）风险通常和新的、未尝试的创新过程或产品联系在一起。由于存在创新失败的可能性，所以需要一种让步计划。这种类型的风险超出了项目经理的控制范围，因此将技术储备置于管理储备中，由业主或高层控制。业主和项目经理决定何时实施应变计划和使用储备基金。一般假设认为：这些储备基金永远不会使用，这是有可能的。,7.4: Risk Response Control 风险反应的控制,The last step in the risk management process is risk control-executing the risk response strategy, monitoring triggering events, initiating contingency plans, and watching for new risks. (224-5-1)风险管理过程的最后一步是风险控制执行风险反应战略，监控风险引发事件，启动应变计划，以及防范新风险。 Risk assessment has to be part of the working agenda of status meetings. (225-5-2)风险评估应该成为状态报告会的工作日程之一。,Change Control Management 变更控制管理,A major element of the risk control process is change management. (225-6-1)风险控制过程的一个主要元素是变更管理。 Three categories: (225-6) Scope changes in the form of design or additions represent big changes.以设计或附加形式出现的范围变更代表着大变更。 Implementation of contingency plans, when risk events occur, represent changes in baseline costs and schedules.当风险事件发生时，应急计划的实施表明基准线成本和进度计划的变更。 Improvement changes suggested by project team members represent another category.项目团队成员所建议的改进变更是另外一种变更。,Change control systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the project baseline. (226-2-1)变更控制系统涉及报告、控制和记录项目基准线的变更。 Purposes: (226-2) Identify proposed changes.识别变更建议。 List expected effects of proposed change(s) on schedule and budget.列出变更建议对进度或预算的预期影响。 Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove changes formally.正式地检查、评价并批准或否决变更。 Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, conditions, and cost.协商和解决变更在条件和成本上的冲突。 Communicate changes to parties affected.与受到变更影响的各方沟通。 Assign responsibility for implementing change.指派实施变更的责任 Track all changes that are to be implemented.跟踪即将实施的所有变更。 One of the keys to a successful change control process is document, document, document! (227-3-3)成功的变更控制过程的关键之一就是记录，记录，再记录。,Change Request Form变更请求表,项目进展报告,每一次变更都必须遵循同样的程序，即相同的文字报告，相同的管理方法，相同的授权过程。 必须确定每一次变更对项目成本、进度、风险、技术要求的影响。 一旦批准进行变更，项目组必须设定一个程序来执行变更。 在充分估计一个变更的影响之后，必须谨慎执行，并且使其保持在限定的数目之下以避免项目进度和成本的外溢。,变更的控制,需求变更申请书的参考格式,The risk and risk management process: an overview The four major steps of Risk Management Process The several methods of Risk Assessment Four kinds responses to risk Four kinds risks included in Contingency Planning The distinguish between budget reserve and management reserve,7.6：Session Summary 本章小结,Budget reserve Management reserve Risk severity matrix Change management system Mitigating risk Scenario analysis,7.7: Key Terms关键术语,Sharing risk Contingency plan Risk profile Transferring risk,7.7: Key Terms关键术语,问题与讨论 Q&C Questions & Comments,Project risks can/cannot be eliminated if the project is carefully planned. Ex