伯南克宏观经济学ch.ppt

Chapter15,GovernmentSpendinganditsFinancing,ChapterOutline,TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFiguresGovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomyGovernmentDeficitsandDebtDeficitsandInflation,TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,Governmentoutlays;threecategoriesofgovernmentexpendituresGovernmentpurchases(G)Transferpayments(TR)Netinterestpayments(INT)Also:Subsidieslesssurplusesofgovernmententerprises;relativelysmall,soweignoreit,TaxesFourprincipalcategoriesPersonaltaxes(incometaxesandpropertytaxes)ContributionsforsocialinsuranceTaxesonproductionandimportsCorporatetaxes,TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,TaxesThecompositionofoutlaysandtaxes:theFederalgovernmentversusstateandlocalgovernmentsThecompositionoftheFederalgovernmentbudgetisquitedifferentfromstateandlocalgovernmentbudgets(Table15.2),TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,Table15.2GovernmentReceiptsandCurrentExpenditures,2005,DeficitsandsurplusesWhenoutlaysexceedrevenues,thereisadeficit;whenrevenuesexceedoutlays,thereisasurplusThetotaldeficittellstheamountthegovernmentmustborrowtocoverallitsexpendituresdeficitoutlaystaxrevenuesgovernmentpurchasestransfers+netinteresttaxrevenuesGTRINTT(15.1),TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,DeficitsandsurplusesAnotherusefuldeficitdefinitionistheprimarygovernmentbudgetdeficit,whichexcludesnetinterestpayments(paymentsforpastgovernmentspending)Theprimarydeficittellsifthegovernmentsreceiptsareenoughtocoveritscurrentpurchasesandtransfersprimarydeficitoutlaysnetinteresttaxrevenuesgovernmentpurchases+transferstaxrevenuesGTRT(15.2),TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,Figure15.3Therelationshipbetweenthetotalbudgetdeficitandtheprimarydeficit,DeficitsandsurplusesAnothersetofdeficitconceptsThecurrentdeficitequalsthedeficitminusgovernmentinvestmentTheprimarycurrentdeficitequalstheprimarydeficitminusgovernmentinvestment,whichequalsthecurrentdeficitminusinterestpayments,TheGovernmentBudget:SomeFactsandFigures,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,FiscalpolicyandaggregatedemandAnincreaseingovernmentpurchasesincreasesaggregatedemandbyshiftingtheIScurveupTheeffectoftaxchangesdependsontheeconomicmodelRicardianequivalenceproposition,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,PrimaryeffectInductioneffectTotaleffectFiscalpolicymultiplier,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,FiscalpolicyandaggregatedemandAutomaticstabilizersandthefull-employmentdeficitAutomaticstabilizerscausefiscalpolicytobecountercyclicalbychanginggovernmentspendingortaxesautomaticallyIncometaxsystemGovernmenttransfers(e.g.unemploymentinsurance),GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,FiscalpolicyandaggregatedemandBecauseofautomaticstabilizers,thegovernmentbudgetdeficitrisesinrecessionsandfallsinboomsThefull-employmentdeficitisameasureofwhatthegovernmentbudgetdeficitwouldbeiftheeconomywereatfullemploymentSothefull-employmentdeficitdoesntchangewiththebusinesscycle,onlywithchangesingovernmentpolicyregardingspendingandtaxation,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,GovernmentcapitalformationLong-livedphysicalassetsownedbythegovernment,likeroads,schools,andsewersystemsHumancapitalformationthroughexpendituresonhealth,nutrition,andeducation,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,IncentiveeffectsoffiscalpolicyAverageversusmarginaltaxratesAveragetaxratetotaltaxes/pretaxincomeMarginaltaxratetaxesduefromanadditionaldollarofincome,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,IncentiveeffectsoffiscalpolicyAverageversusmarginaltaxratesIftheaveragetaxrateincreases,withthemarginaltaxrateheldconstant,apersonwillincreaselaborsupplyIfthemarginaltaxrateincreases,withtheaveragetaxrateheldconstant,apersonwilldecreaselaborsupply,GovernmentSpending,Taxes,andtheMacroeconomy,PracticalissuesofusingfiscalpolicyLagsUncertaintyCrowding-outeffectTax-induceddistortions,GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,ThegrowthofthegovernmentdebtThedeficitisthedifferencebetweenexpendituresandrevenuesinanyfiscalyearThedebtisthetotalvalueofoutstandinggovernmentbondsonagivendateThedeficitisthechangeinthedebtinayearBnominalvalueofgovernmentbondsoutstandingBnominalgovernmentbudgetdeficit(15.3),GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,ThegrowthofthegovernmentdebtDebtGDPratioaccountsfortheabilitytopayoffthedebtChangeindebtGDPratiodeficit/nominalGDP(totaldebt/nominalGDP)growthrateofnominalGDP(15.4)SotwothingscausethedebtGDPratiotoriseAhighdeficitrelativetoGDPAslowrateofGDPgrowth,GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,TheburdenofthegovernmentdebtonfuturegenerationsHighertaxratesmayhavetoberaisedinthefuturetopayoffthedebtTherewouldbealargetransferfromthepoortotherichGovernmentdeficitsreducenationalsavingaccordingtomanyeconomists,GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,Budgetdeficitsandnationalsaving:RicardianequivalencerevisitedWhenwillagovernmentdeficitreducenationalsaving?SYCGItalmostcertainlydoeswhengovernmentspendingrisesButitmaynotforacutintaxesorincreaseintransfers,nationalsavingdeclinesonlyifconsumptionrises(assumingYisfixedatitsfull-employmentlevel),GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,RicardianequivalenceacrossgenerationsWhatifthehigherfuturetaxesaretobepaidbyfuturegenerations?Thenpeoplemightconsumemoretoday,becausetheywouldnthavetopaythehigherfuturetaxesButifpeoplecareabouttheirchildren,theyllincreasetheirbequeststotheirchildrensotheirchildrencanpaythehigherfuturetaxes,GovernmentDeficitsandDebt,DeparturesfromRicardianequivalenceWhatarethemainreasonsRicardianequivalencemayfail?BorrowingconstraintsShortsightednessFailuretoleavebequestsNonlump-sumtaxes,DeficitsandInflation,ThedeficitandthemoneysupplyInflationresultswhenaggregatedemandrisesmorequicklythanaggregatesupplySobudgetdeficitscouldberelatedtoinflation(butaone-timejumpinthepricelevel)Theonlywayforasustainedinflationtooccurisfortheretobesustainedgrowthinthemoneysupply,DeficitsandInflation,ThedeficitandthemoneysupplyCangovernmentdeficitsleadtoongoingincreasesinthemoneysupply?Yes,ifspendingisfinancedbyprintingmoneyTherevenuethatagovernmentraisesbyprintingmoneyiscalledseignorageUsually,governmentsdontjustbuythingsdirectlywithnewlyprintedmoney,theydosoindirectlyTheTreasuryborrowsbyissuinggovernmentbondsThecentralbankbuysthebondswithnewlyprintedmoney,DeficitsandInflation,ThedeficitandthemoneysupplyTherelationshipbetweenthedeficitandtheincreaseinthemonetarybaseisdeficitBBpBcbBpBASE(15.6)Bistheincreaseingovernmentdebt,whichisdividedintogovernmentdebtheldbythepublicBpandgovernmentdebtheldbythecentralbankBcbChangesinBcbequalchangesinthemonetarybase,BASEInanall-currencyeconomy,thechangeinthemonetarybaseisequaltothechangeinthemoneysupply:deficit=B=BpBcbBpM(15.7),DeficitsandInflation,RealseignoragecollectionandinflationTherealrevenuethegovernmentgetsfromseignorageiscloselyrelatedtotheinflationrateConsideranall-currencyeconomywithafixedlevelofrealoutputandafixedrealinterestrate,plusconstantratesofmoneygrowthandinflationM/M(15.8),DeficitsandInflation,RealseignoragecollectionandinflationRealseignoragerevenueRisM/P,butsinceM/M,thenM=M,(15.9)RM/PM/P(15.10)SeignorageiscalledInflationtaxlikeatax(attherateofinflation)