财务报告的决策有用性

21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,1,Topic3TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,Topic3TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,1.Overview2.TheDecisionUsefulnessApproach3.Objectiveoffinancialreporting4.TheDecisionMaking5.Single-PersonDecisionTheory6.TheRational,Risk-AverseInvestor7.ThePrincipleofPortfolioDiversification8.TheOptimalInvestmentDecision,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,2,1.Overview,21-Nov-19,01OverviewofAccountingTheoryanditsresearch(QinggangWang),3,Themostusefulmeasureofnetincometoinforminvestors(tocontroladverseselection)neednotbethesameasthebestmeasuretomotivatemanagerperformance(tocontrolmoralhazard).(Gjesdal,1981),Informinvestors,Motivatemanagers,Informationthatenablesbetterinvestmentdecisions,currentvalueaccounting,Informationthatishighlyinformativeabouttheirperformance,alessvolatileandmoreconservativeincomemeasure,suchasonebasedonhistoricalcost,Thefundamentalproblemoffinancialaccountingtheoryishowtodesignandimplementconceptsandstandardsthatbesttradeofftheinvestor-informingandmanagerperformanceevaluatingrolesforaccountinginformation.,1.Overview,Giventhatthemixedmeasurementmodelretainshistoricalcostaccountingformajorclassesofassetsandliabilities:Thepresentvaluemodelfacessomesevereproblemsinpractices;Historicalcostaccountingproducesrelativelyreliableinformation,eventhoughhistoricalisnotasrelevantaspresentvalueormarket-basedapproachestocurrentvalue.Howcanfinancialstatementsbemademoreuseful?Thisleadstotheconceptofdecisionusefulness.Toproperlyunderstandthisconcept,weneedtoconsiderothertheoriesfromeconomicsandfinance.Decisiontheories;andCapitalmarkettheories.Themainpurposeofthischapteristointroduceyoutosomeofthesetheoriesandtodiscusstheirrelevancetoaccounting.,2.TheDecisionUsefulnessApproach,HistoricalPerspective1966,AAA:AStatementofBasicAccountingTheory1973,AICPATruebloodCommission:ObjectivesofFinancialstatementsContrastiveapproach:Stewardship(Chapter8)Inadoptingthedecisionusefulnessapproach,twomajorquestionsmustbeaddressed:Firs,whoaretheusersoffinancialstatements?ConstituenciesSecond,whatarethedecisionproblemsoffinancialstatementusers?,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,6,2.TheDecisionUsefulnessApproach,ItistheinvestorsresponsibilitytomakeinvestmentdecisionsRoleoffinancialreportingistosupplyinformationthatisusefulforthispurposeInformationisevidencethathasthepotentialtoaffectanindividualsdecisiontheGNorBNinthefinancialstatements,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,7,2.TheDecisionUsefulnessApproach,Toprepareusefulinformation,theaccountantmustknowhowinvestorsmakedecisionsRoleoftherationaldecisiontheorymodelinfinancialreportingHelpsusunderstandhowfinancialstatementinformationhelpsinvestorstomakeinvestmentdecisionsCapturesaverageinvestorbehaviour?,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,8,2.TheDecisionUsefulnessApproach,PriorprobabilitiesaresubjectiveInvestorassessesthembasedonallinformationavailablepriortotheinvestmentdecisionIfpriorprobabilitiesaresubjective,soareposteriorprobabilitiesHowever,iffinancialstatementinformationisinformative,posteriorprobabilitiesarebetterpredictorsoffuturefirmperformancethanpriorprobabilitiesHowisfinancialstatementinformationuseful?,Processofcommunication,Companysactivities,FinancialReporting,Userperception,3.ObjectiveofFinancialStatement,Essentialcharacteristicsofaccountingare:theidentification,measurement,andcommunicationoffinancialinformationabouteconomicentitiestointerestedparties.,IdentificationofUsers,UserInformationNeeds,AccountingSystem,Reports,EconomicDataandActivities,AccountingAnInformationProcess,11,11,11,3.Objectiveoffinancialreporting,Primaryusers:existingandpotentialinvestors,lenders,andothercreditorsbuying,sellingorholdingequityanddebtinstrumentsdividends,principalandinterestpaymentsormarketpriceincreases.meettheneedsofthemaximumnumberofprimaryusers.Regulators?Management?,12,12,12,3.Objectiveoffinancialreporting,providefinancialinformationthatisusefultousersinmakingdecisionsaboutprovidingresourcestotheentityarenotdesignedtoshowthevalueofareportingentity;buttheyprovideinformationtohelpuserstoestimatethevalueofthereportingentity.assessmentoftheamount,timing,anduncertaintyoffuturenetcashinflowstotheentityHowtodefinetheconceptofassets,andliabilities?,13,13,13,3.Objectiveoffinancialreporting,Usefulinformationtheresources,claims,andchangesinthoseresourcesandclaimsFinancialperformanceaccrualaccountingVScashflowsChangesinresourcesandclaimsnotresultingfromfinancialperformanceInformationabouttheefficiencyandeffectivenessoftheuseofresourcesdonotandcannotprovidealloftheinformationusersneedtoconsiderpertinentinformationfromothersources,eg,generaleconomicconditionsandexpectations,politicaleventsandpoliticalclimate,andindustryandcompanyoutlooks.,Illustration2-2HierarchyofAccountingQualities,4.TheDecisionMaking,Accountantshavedecidedthatinvestorsareamajorconstituencyofusersandhaveturnedtovarioustheoriesofdecisionandinvestment:Single-persondecisiontheoryTounderstandhowindividualsmaymakerationaldecisionsunderuncertainty.TheoryofinvestmentAspecializationofdecisiontheorytomodelthedecisionprocessesofarationalinvestor;tounderstandthenatureofriskinportfolioinvestmentcontext.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,16,4.1Decision-MakingEnvironments,Certaintyreferstoadecisionenvironmentinwhichtheresultsofselectingeachalternativeareknownbeforethedecisionismade.UncertaintyreferstoadecisionenvironmentinwhichthedecisionmakerdoesnotknowwhatoutcomewilloccurwhenanalternativeisselectedThegoalofdecisionanalysisistofocusonmakinggooddecisions,whichinthelongrunshouldresultinanincreasednumberofgoodoutcomes,4.2Decisionmakingprocess,21-Nov-19,01OverviewofAccountingTheoryanditsresearch(QinggangWang),17,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,18,4.2BasicDecisionProcess,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,19,5.Single-PersonDecisionTheory,Ittakestheviewpointofanindividualwhomustmakeadecisionunderconditionsofuncertainty.stateprobabilitiesarenolongerobjectivesetsoutaformalprocedurewherebytheindividualcanmakethebestdecision,byselectingfromasetofalternatives.Additionalinformationcanbeobtainedtorevisethedecision-makerssubjectiveassessmentoftheprobabilitiesofwhatmighthappenafterthedecisionismade.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,20,5.Single-PersonDecisionTheory,TherationalinvestorOptimalforecasts(thebestguessofthefuture)usingallavailableinformation,but.NeedsinformationaboutriskaswellasexpectedreturnCanexpressclearpreferencesamongcommoditiesPrefersmoretolessPreferencesarealwaystransitive,AB,andBC,thenACAB,andBC,thenAExpectedearningsBG:ActualearningsExpectedearnings,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,27,ShowsEvidenceProbabilities,ConditionalonEachState,forInputintoBayesTheorem,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,28,Consideraninvestorwith$10,000toinvestinoneofthefollowingmutuallyexclusiveacts:a1:buysharesofxLtd.For$10,000a2:buyCanadaSavingsBonds(CSB)for$10,000Lettherebe3“statesofnature”:1:sharesfall10%inmarketvalue2:sharesholdsteady3:sharesrise80%,Example,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,29,Example,cont,PayoffTablePriorProbabilities,P(1)=.05P(2)=.70P(3)=.251.00,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,30,Example,cont,Assumetheinvestorusesexpectedmonetaryvalueasadecisioncriterion(EMV)EMV(a1):(.05)(-1000)+0+.25(8000)=1950EMV(a2):(.05)(1000)+.70(1000)+.25(1000)=1000Therefore,ifinvestoractsnow,shouldtakea1.But:Maybeworthwhiletosecureadditionalinformation.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,31,DecisionProblem,ThinkofthefinancialstatementsofXLtd.asaninformationsystemconveyinginformationaboutprobabilitiesof.Assumethefinancialstatementswillgiveoneofthefollowing3mutuallyexclusivemessages:,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,32,BayesTheorem(Rule),ThebasicprincipleofBayesTheoremisthatadditionalinformationcanchangeadecisionmakerspriorbeliefsabouttheoccurrenceofanevent,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,33,DecisionProblem,Cont.,Theinformationsystemcanbecharacterizedbythefollowingtable:,Theseconditionalprobabilities,orlikelihoods,aretheprobabilitiesofreceivingthevariousmessagesconditionaloneachstatebeingtrue.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,34,DecisionProblem,Cont.,Now,foranymessage,thedecisionmakercanrevisehis/herpriorprobabilitiesusingBayesTheorem.Supposethatm1wasreceivedfromthefinancialstatements.,=P(m1)=.05.75+.70.5+.25.10=.4125,=.85=.061.00,Then:,Similarly:,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,35,DecisionProblem,Cont.,NotetheEMVofeachactis,Soifm1werereceivedacta2wouldbechosen.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,36,DecisionProblem,Cont.,Youshouldverifythatifm2wasreceived:,where,Andtheoptionalactisthena1withEMVof$1444.60.0370(-1000)+0.77780+0.18528000=1444.6,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,37,DecisionProblem,Cont.,Similarly,ifm3wasreceived:,where,Andtheoptionalactisthena1withEMVof$4401.70.0079(-1000)+0.44090+0.55128000=4401.7,7.TheRational,Risk-AverseInvestor,RiskUtilityFunctionTomodelriskaversion,decisiontheoristsusethedeviceofautilityfunction,whichrelatespayoffamountstothedecision-makersutility,确定性决策：能取得确定结果的决策不确定性决策：不能取得确定结果的决策确定性等价：具有与某项决策的效用期望值相等效用的确定性决策,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,39,RiskPreferenceAttitudes,确定性等价的效用等于确定性决策的效用效用线是直线不要求风险补偿，预期收益率等于无风险利率,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,40,RiskPreferenceAttitudes,$0,$2,000,$4,000,$6,000,$8,000,$10,000,0,0.25,0.50,0.75,1,-$2,000,Risk-AversePreferenceFunction,确定性等价的效用小于确定性决策的效用在其它条件相同的情况下，投资者将选择标准差较小的组合,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,41,RiskPreferenceAttitudes,确定性等价的效用大于确定性决策的效用,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,42,AreSecuritiesMarketsFullyEfficient?,BehaviouralfinanceBehaviouralcharacteristicsthatquestionmarketefficiencyLimitedattentionOverconfidenceRepresentativenessSelf-attributionbiasLeadingtomomentum,成功归于自身能力失败归于外在因素,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,43,ProspectTheory,AnAlternativeTheoryofDecisionMakingSeparateevaluationofgainsandlossesWeightingofprobabilitiesOverconfidence:rareeventsunderweightedRepresentativeness:likelyeventsoverweightedLeadstoadispositioneffectImplicationsforfinancialaccountingLeadstoearningsmanagementtoavoidreportingsmalllosses?Prudenceconcept,出赢保亏：卖出赚钱的股票、持有赔钱的股票,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,44,ProspectTheoryUtilityFunction,u(x),Gainx,loss,两种选择：A肯定赢100万元，B50%可能性赢200万元，50%可能性什么也得不到？大部分人会选A，这说明人们是风险规避的,两种选择：A肯定损失100万元，B50%可能性损失200万元，50%可能性损失为零大部分人选B，这说明人们是风险偏好的,在盈利和亏损两种状态下，人们的风险态度不仅不一致，且不对称,收益和风险分开评估,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,45,8.ThePrincipleofPortfolioDiversification,systematicrisk(generalmarketrisk)VSnon-systemrisk(Uniquerisk)Triestomaximizeportfolioexpectedreturnforagivenamountofportfoliorisk,orequivalentlyminimizeriskforagivenlevelofexpectedreturn,bycarefullychoosingtheproportionsofvariousassetsCollectionofinvestmentassetsthathascollectivelylowerriskthananyindividualasset.differenttypesofassetsoftenchangeinvalueinoppositeways.Fourbasicstepsinvolvedinportfolioconstruction-Securityvaluation-Assetallocation-Portfoliooptimization-Performancemeasurement,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,46,PreferenceforRisk,Theconceptofriskaversionisimportanttoaccountants,becauseitmeansthatinvestorsneedinformationconcerningtherisk,aswellastheexpectedvalue,offuturereturns.Suchinvestorsneedinformationtohelpthemassesssecuritiesexpectedreturnsandriskinessofthesereturns.Betaisanimportantriskmeasure.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,47,Beta,DefinitionStandardizedcovariancebetweenreturnonshareandreturnonmarketOnlyrelevantriskmeasureforareasonablydiversifiedinvestorWhy?BecausefirmspecificriskdiversifiesawayImplication=investorsdontneedaccountinginfo?,21-Nov-19,06TheMeasurementApproachtoDecisionUsefulness(QinggangWang),48,EstimatingBeta(continued),UsuallyavailableonafinancialwebsiteGooglefinance:,8.ThePrincipleofPortfolioDiversification,SummaryRisk-averseinvestorscantakeadvantageoftheprincipleofportfoliodiversificationtoreducetheirrisk,byinvestinginaportfolioofsecurities.Thisisbecauserealizationsoffirm-specificstatesofnaturetendtocanceloutacrosssecurities,leavingeconomy-widefactorsasthemaincontributorstoportfoliorisk.Regardlessofthedegreeofriskaversion,weknowthatutilityincreasesinexpectedrateofreturnanddecreasesinvarianceoftheportfolio.,21-Nov-19,03TheDecisionUsefulnessApproachtoFinancialReporting,49,TheOptimalInvestmentDecision,HoldingthemarketportfolioThefirm-specificriskstendtocancelout;Suchnon-diversifiableriskiscalledsystematicr