宏观经济学家之父-凯恩斯.ppt

GoodAfternoon,Groupmember:ArrowbinLesleyKate,Wearegroup2,Thefatherofmacroeconomic-Keynes,IntroductionName:JohnMaynardKeynesBorn:5thJune,1883Death:21thApril,1946Graduate:Cambridgeuniversitymastersdegree,KeyneswasborninCambridge,England,anupper-middle-classfamily.HisfatherwasaneconomistandalecturerinmoralsciencesattheUniversityofCambridgeandhismotherwasalocalsocialreformer,hisfamilyandhisteacherAlfredMarshallhadinfluencedhimalotwhichmadehimbecomeagreateconomist.,FamilyBackgroud,1.Keyneshadhiseducationathomeandatnursery.HeattendedThePerseSchoolnurseryin1890beforebecomingadaypupilatStFaithspreparatoryschoolin1892.TeachersdescribedthatKeyneswasbrilliant,butcarelessandlackingindetermination.Hishealthwasoftenpoorduringthisperiod,leadingtoseverallongabsences.,EducationalBackgroud,Earlytime,2.KeyneswonascholarshiptoEtonCollegein1897,wherehedisplayedtalentinawiderangeofsubjects,particularlymathematics,classicsandhistory.,EducationalBackgroud,EtonCollege,2019/11/22,3.In1902KeynesleftEtonforKingsCollege,Cambridgetostudymathematicsafterreceivingascholarship.AlfredMarshallbeggedKeynestobecomeaneconomist,althoughKeynessowninclinationsdrewhimtowardsphilosophyespeciallytheethicalsystemofG.E.Moore.Keyneswasalsoanactivememberofthesemi-secretiveCambridgeApostlessociety,adebatingclublargelyreservedforthebrighteststudents.,EducationalBackgroud,Cambridgecollege,Keynesscareerlife,Keynesscareerlife,2019/11/22,School(学派),HebelongstotheschoolofthoughtknownasKeyneseconomicsanditsvariousoffshorts.,1930ATreatiseonMoney,1923ATractonMonetaryReform,1936TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney,Hisbooks,2019/11/22,TheoryMacroeconomics,Headvocatedgovernmenttoexpandpublicspendingonengineeringaspects,increasethemoneysupply,thebudgetdeficittostimulatethenationaleconomicactivities,inordertoincreasenationalincome,realizefullemployment.,Ifyouearn100RMB,howmuchwouldyouusetobuything?50RMBSothepercentageofyourconsumptionis50%Howaboutifyouearn200RMB?80RMBSothepercentageofyourconsumptionis40%Sothepercentageofyourconsumptiondeclinewiththeincreaseofearnings,2019/11/22,1.Lawofdiminishingmarginalpropensitytoconsume(MPC)边际消费倾向递减规律Itreferstopeoplesconsumptionincreasealongwiththeincreaseofincome,butthepercentageofconsumptionintheincreaseincomeislessandless.Thedifferenceisthesavings.是指人们的消费虽然随收入的增加而增加，但在所增加的收入中用于增加消费的部分越来越少,Theory,Keynesarguedthatthelawofdiminishingmarginalpropensitytoconsume(MPC)isdeterminedbyhumannature.Becauseofthislaw,consumptionisnotsufficient.,2LawofDiminishingMarginalEfficiencyofCapital资本边际效率递减规律,Increasinginvestmentwillinevitablycausetheriseinthepriceofresource,andtheriseinthepriceofresourcesmeansthatthecostincreaseIncreasinginvestmentwillincreasetheamountofproductproducedin,andtheproductquantityincreasesmarketpricestofall,2LawofDiminishingMarginalEfficiencyofCapital,Capitalistscannotgetmorebenefitsfrominvestment,sotheinvestmentdemanddecline.Question:Ifyouhaveexcessmoney,whatwouldyouprefertodo?,3.liquiditypreference流动偏好Liquiditypreferencereferstothepeoplemorewillingtokeeptheirwealthintheformofacurrencyordeposit.（人们愿意以货币形式或存款形式保持某一部分财富)Thisalsocausetheconsumptiondecline,ConsumptiondemandTotaldemandInvestmentdemandThethreebasicpsychologicalruleleadtothetotaldemandislessthanthetotalsupply.,Causestoinsufficientdemand,1.Lawofdiminishingmarginalpropensitytoconsume(MPC)边际消费倾向递减规律2LawofDiminishingMarginalEfficiencyofCapital资本边际效率递减规律3liquiditypreference流动偏好,InsufficienteffectivedemandledtotheoverproductionandEconomiccrisisandunemployment.Themarketpricemechanism(市场价格机制)cannotsolveit.Keynesadvocatedtoabandoneconomicliberalism,guidelineandpolicyofthestateinterventioninlieu.凯恩斯主张放弃经济自由主义，代之以国家干预的方针和政策!,Measures,Keynesarguedthatgovernmentsthroughincomedistributionpolicytostimulateeffectivedemandtoachievefullemployment.Tostimulatetheincreaseofsocialdemandforinvestment,hearguesthat:1Toexpandpublicworks扩大公共工程2Increasethemoneysupply,implementsthebudgetdeficit增加货币供应量，实行赤字预算Thiscreatedthemodernmacroeconomics,2019/11/22,AustrianSchooleconomistHewasKeynessthemostprominentcontemporarycritic,withsharplyopposingviewsontheeconomy.,Somecommentsonhim,1.FriedrichHayek(哈耶克）VSKeynes,2019/11/22,YetafterKeynessdeathhewrote:HewastheonereallygreatmanIeverknew,andforwhomIhadunboundedadmiration.Theworldwillbeaverymuchpoorerplacewithouthim.,1.FriedrichHayek(哈耶克）VSKeynes,formerheadoftheeconomicsdepartmentattheLondonSchoolofEconomics,whohadmanyheateddebateswithKeynesinthe1930s,hadthistosayafterobservingKeynesinearlynegotiations:,Somecommentsonhim,2.LionelRobbins（罗宾斯）,Atsuchmoments,IoftenfindmyselfthinkingthatKeynesmustbeoneofthemostremarkablementhathaveeverlivedthequicklogic,thebirdlikeswoopofintuition,thevividfancy,thewidevision,abovealltheincomparablesenseofthefitnessofwords.,2019/11/22,2.LionelRobbins（罗宾斯）,Somecommentsonhim,anofficialfromtheCanadianHighCommission,wrote:Iamspellbound.ThisisthemostbeautifulcreatureIhaveeverlistenedto.Doeshebelongtoourspecies?Orishefromsomeotherorder?Thereissomethingmythicandfabulousabouthim.Isenseinhimsomethingmassiveandsphinxlike,andyetalsoahintofwings,Somecommentsonhim,3.Douglas（道格拉斯）,TheinfluenceofKeynes,BritisheconomistJohnMaynardKeynesisoneofthefathersofmodernmacroeconomictheoryandwidelyconsideredtobeoneofthethreemostimportanteconomistsofalltime,alongwithAdamSmithandKarlMarx.MaynardKeynes,whoseideashaveprofoundlyaffectedthetheoryandpracticeofmodernmacroeconomics,aswellastheeco