德勤——石油化工股份有限公司财务成本分析项目方案

石油化工股份有限公司财务成本分析项目方案(草案),备注:本文档所包含的内容属于德勤咨询的商业机密，其知识产权也归德勤咨询所有，任何个人与实体在未经德勤咨询许可的情况下不得复制与分发。,德勤企业管理咨询(浦东)有限公司联系人:王依容-高级经理上海滩国际大厦26楼上海市黄浦路99号邮政编码：200080电话:+860216393-9320传真:+860216393-3530,二零零一年四月十日,目录,德勤咨询简介德勤咨询对于石化成本分析项目的理解德勤咨询对于石油化工行业的成本分析案例介绍股东价值驱动的分析模型如何在石化一体企业中实施财务分析系统德勤咨询推荐的对于石化成本分析的解决方案规划德勤咨询实施工具介绍问答,在全球75个国家中有超过13,500名顾问,年收入超过30亿元,德勤咨询是全球顶尖的管理咨询公司,德勤咨询是DeloitteToucheTohmatsu的一部分.DTT是全球专业服务的领导者,他有82,000名员工,在129个国家提供咨询,审计,税务和相关服务.,德勤咨询集中给以下七大行业提供服务:,能源化工消费品制造业通讯行业金融服务政府卫生保健,德勤咨询简介,8个办事处超过200专业人员1999&2000年超过100%增长率在上海、广州和北京有办事处在中国大陆共有超过60名咨询顾问在大中国区(香港与台湾)还有80名咨询顾问在中国正在进行的项目-5在中国完成的实施项目-18,德勤咨询在大中国,大中国区总裁：沈达理先生,策略转变,业务转变,信息管理转变,价值链管理,共享服务,供应链管理,程序领导管理,收购与兼并,外包服务,客户关系管理,系统集成,培训与教育服务,领导制度变更,业务流程重组,人员转变,电子交易,电子商务,知识管理,信息系统规划,企化战略与财务管理,德勤咨询提供你所期望的从世界顶尖咨询公司所能获得的各式服务,德勤咨询简介,我们的工作方式使我们与众不同与众不同的解决方法高度协作的工作方式给我们的雇员无穷的动力来进行合作与知识技能的传输以现实的方式来处理业务流程使我们获得我们所承诺的策略和技术所带来的结果带来与众不同的结果客户可以依赖我们所交与的结果,因为他们知道在我们离开以后,他们还可以进行自我的提高客户可以在我们所交与的结果上发展,因为我们所帮助建立的的组织比以前更强大,并适合于变幻莫测的环境,目录,德勤咨询简介德勤咨询对于中石化成本分析项目的理解德勤咨询对于石油化工行业的成本分析案例介绍股东价值驱动的分析模型如何在石化一体企业中实施财务分析系统德勤咨询推荐的对于中石化成本分析的解决方案规划德勤咨询预计的本阶段项目实施的范围德勤咨询实施工具介绍问答,中国石油化工股份有限公司是一家上中下游一体化、石油石化主业突出、拥有比较完备销售网络的股份制企业，成立于2000年2月28日。中国石油化工股份有限公司是由中国石油化工集团公司根据中华人民共和国公司法，并遵循主业与辅业分离、优良资产与不良资产分离、企业职能与社会职能分离的原则，通过业务、资产、债权债务、机构、人员等方面的整体重组改制后，以独家发起方式设立的公司。中国石油化工股份有限公司实行集中决策、分级管理和专业化经营的事业部制管理体制,其框架是一级法人为主、三级管理，即：总部是投资决策和资金运营中心；事业部、专业公司和子公司是利润中心；分公司是成本控制和生产管理中心。公司注册资本688亿元人民币，董事长为公司法定代表人。中国石化股份有限公司的独家发起人-中国石油化工集团公司成立于1998年7月，是国家组建成立的特大型石油石化企业集团。中国石油化工集团公司是国家独资设立的国有公司，是国家授权投资的机构和国家控股公司。中国石油化工集团公司实行总经理负责制，总经理为法定代表人。注册资本1049亿元。中国石油化工集团公司组建后，实现了政企分开和上下游、内外贸、产销一体化，既保持了石油化工技术和规模等方面的优势，又增加了原油、天然气勘探开发及成品油批发零售等业务，整体实力进一步增强。在美国财富杂志评选的2000年世界500强企业中，按销售收入排名位居第58位。,中国石油化工股份有限公司简介,中石化财务管理信息系统建设的整体目标,中石化产业链与成本管理,原油勘探,原油开采,炼油,化工生产,产品销售,成本核算/管理,生产成本,管理成本,销售成本,全方位成本管理,采够成本,股东价值驱动的分析模型,指标,运作,价值管理需要以下三个核心部分有效地运作,价值管理,战略,超前的战略领先的地位,系统流程管理,准确的指标准确的尺度,价值衡量需要有一整套指数,EVAisaregisteredtrademarkoftheSternStewartCompany,最可靠的衡量指数:,股东回报率TotalShareholderReturn(TSR)投资资本的现金流回报Cashflowreturnongrossinvestedcapital(CFROI)加权平均的资本成本Weighted-AverageCostofCapital(WACC)可持续的资产增长率SustainableAssetGrowthRate未来现金流量的净现值Netpresentvalueoffuturecashflows(NPVorDCF),是否在创造价值?表现如何?什么是最低投资回报?如何衡量增长?公司的价值?,需要衡量的对象.,股东回报率TSR衡量上市公司的价值增长,为什么TSR是衡量价值增长的最好指标,股东回报率TSR定义,TSR=(市场差价+分红)/价格=(2+1)/10=30%,12,1,10,股价t=0,分红,股价t=n,反映了公司最终拥有者的回报率用作各投资机构的积分卡不受会计操作的影响全面体现获利率和和增长率是高层管理者持股分配的基础,股票价格,分红,获利率和增长率驱动股价,股东回报率(TSR),衡量分析指数,投资者回报,TSR定义,投资资本的现金流回报CFROI,可持续增长,自由现金流,投资资本的现金流回报CFROI全面衡量公司业绩,当上市公司拥有以下特征时，较为适合使用CFROI:长年限的固定资产(平均超过15年)具有大量固定资产固定资产非常陈旧或非常新具有大型投资模板和行为,益处,CFROI定义,跨国家，跨行业，跨时间比较不受资产的年限和组合的影响全面使内部决策和外部资本市场的表现挂钩提供投资项目的回顾审计与资本成本可直接比较,CFROI计算结果(1999年),542406446,06822,29210,4119,36948,140,564216312141383891,NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlow,NetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment,资产年限=20,营运资本+土地,Sinopec1999($millions),Source:DCAnalysis,Companyfinancialstatements,CFROI=IRR=6.1%,48,140,4,079,6,068,*DCEstimates,Peers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?,IRR：内部收益率,592707396,66622,89710,5999,53949,701,1926*2322*814*110*5172*,NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlow,NetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment,资产年限=20,营运资本+土地,Sinopec2000($millions),Source:DCAnalysis,Companyfinancialstatements,CFROI=IRR=8.6%,49,701,5,172,6,666,*DCEstimates,Peers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?,CFROI计算结果(2000年),IRR：内部收益率,PositiveSpreadBusiness,NeutralSpreadBusiness,NegativeSpreadBusiness,DiscountRate:WACC,IncreaseCFROIHoldCFROIGrowAssetsErodeCFROIGrowFaster,IncreaseCFROIThenGrow,IncreaseCFROIReduceReinvestmentDivestorLiquidate,CFROI%,StrategiesforValueCreation,任何业务都可创造价值但需要按不同的情况设定战略,Note:thisappliestobusinessunitsaswellascorporationsoverall,市场是如何设定股价的?,CFROI,AssetSize,Fade,NetCashFlows,1+DiscountRate,SharePrice,AssetGrowth,=,Investors,评估使用表现指标和贴现现金流量,GrossInvestment,SustainableGrowth,PVCashFlowExistingAssetsPVCashFlowFutureInvestmentTotalEconomicValue-MarketValueofDebt1)EquityValue,34236-102633210-1268720523,1)ST<,minorityinterest,2.2%,$49,701m,8.2%,10%,$mil,$29.83/share,FadeRate,DiscountRate,7.0%,CFROI,Sinopec,Fiscal2000estimate,的股价是由CFROI和增长决定的,,RealAssetGrowthRate(%),CFROI(%),15.7417.1117.814.2,30.7029.8328.628.2,46.5243.2340.0612.2,Sinopecequityvalue(fiscal2000),BaseCase,Whatisitworthifweimprove?,Note:GrowthonlyimprovesvalueifCFROIimprovesto“positivespread”,如何在一体企业中实施财务分析系统,CEO/Board,BusinessUnits,Operations,HowdoIinfluenceSharePrice?,Whatisthebestwaytoallocatemycapital?,HowdoIimproveexecution?,Determinewherevalueisbeingcreated/destroyed,Allocatecapitallikeaportfoliomanager,Implementaconsistent&planningprocesslinkedtoKPIsandcomp.,Communicatetothemarketinalanguagetheyrespondto,FundManagers,Shareholders,HowdoImaximizeshareholderreturns?,Realizemaximumvalueforshareholders-TSR,股价和运营的联接,各种价值指标的波动直接影响股价,ValueSinopec,CFROI1.1%,AssetLife20years,AssetTurns0.36,GrossPlantAssetTurns0.44,NetCashFlow,AssetGrowth0.46%,FadeRate10%/year,SizeDifferential-.72,LeverageDifferential+.57,GrossCashFlow2.394,AdjustedGrossAssets48,002,Non-Dep.Assets6,666,OperatingMargin16.2%,SalesGrowth-?%,COGSasa%ofSales78.1%,SG&Aasa%ofSales5.6%,InventoryTurns3.98,A/RTurns9.11,CFROIVariabilityHigh,PloughbackLowtoAverage,CountryDiscountRate6.5%,1+WACC,=,UnitVolume,PriceRealisation,ValueDriversprovidethedirectionandKPIsprovidethefeedback.Amulti-tiersystemofmeasuresisoptimal,withthemostaccurate(andusuallycomplicated)usedbythefinancedepartment.Fromthereon,simplificationandcontrollabilityofKPIsiscriticalastheyaredrivenbroadlyanddeeplythroughouttheorganisation,RevenueGrowth,OperatingMargins/Expenses,WorkingCapital,AssetProductivity,StimulateSalesEconomicDevelActivitiesExpandserviceterritory,ManageCostFuelusageWageRates,ManageCashBilling/CollectionCycleFuelandStockInvestment,ReturnonCapitalAssetAvailabilityAssetUtilisation,CashFlow,Investment,财务回报,价值驱动,KPIs,%RevNewProducts%RevNewMarkets,Averageheatrate%CostReduction,InventoryTurnsReceivableTurns,EquivalentAvailabilityCapacityFactor,方向,反馈,战略,我们该观注什么?,我们如何去做?,如何知道我们做得对?,KPI被用于监督运作，反馈于目标设立,什么是目标?,XXXPEC,Chemicals,Marketing,Refining,Upstream,StrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionandnewproductsCostcontrol,capacityutilization,newproductdevelopmentandproductlinemanagement,StrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionPricing,regionalshiftsandformateconomicsarekeydriversManysmallbetsValuedrivenbycustomerstrategy,storeeconomicsandgrowth,StrategyfocusedonflexibilityversusefficiencyLockedintoLPMindset?Find“outofbox”optionsCostcontrolandthroughputarekeyshort-termvaluedrivers,StrategyfocusedoninvestmentoptionsFieldversusnewgeographyinvestmentandexplorationcostsversussuccessratearekeydriversManybetsValuedrivenbypriceinvestmentstrategyandoperatingeffectiveness,ProductlineTSR,PlantCFROI,BUTSR&StationCFROI,ProjectIRRandrefineryCFROI,BUTSR&projectIRR,Metricsimplemented,按不同的事业部特性确定价值衡量指标,%GrossInvestment,CFROI,-5,0,5,10,20,Gas,Exploration,6.0,Chemicals,RefiningandMarketing,CostofCapital,15,各类投资项目的审核从划分事业部起始,GrowthProjects,CFROIImprovementProjects,CFROIImprovementProjects:Assetmanagement,%ofGrossInvestment,%,AvgCFROIinPlan,Chemical1,Exploration,Gas1,Chemical2,Gas2,Gas3,Marketing,Refining,6.0,CostofCapital,Chemical3,Chemical4,而事业部进一步按业务类型细化,石油开采事业部,市场零售,炼油,举例：细分后的不同结果,LinktoStrategy,CleaningSuppliesHouseholdProductsChemicalAdditivesFertilizersSpecialtyPlastics,产品,市场,零售,工业,商业,政府,直销,举例(续)：按销售渠道进一步细化市场零售事业部,LinktoStrategy,利润表:销售利润管理费用利息折旧税务资产负债表:应收帐款存货固定资产应付帐款负债,可获取可获取按人力分配按负债额分配预定年限Divisionrate按产品可获取特殊区分按销售成本按负债/权益,会计科目表,预计流程,而进一步将资产分配到各市场单位可深入分析投资回报率,LinktoStrategy,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,-10,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,商业,直销,零售,工业,政府,CFROI%,%GrossInvestment,WACC,ConsolidatedCFROI,渠道获利率分析揭示了渠道的强弱,LinktoStrategy,SampleStoresCFROI,Site,Keep,?,KeepFix,Close,Strong,Weak,Weak,Strong,Storesweregroupedfornextsteps,CostofCapital6.0%,Cons.CFROI17.0%,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,Management,而零售渠道的进一步细分可揭示各零售点的强弱,LinktoStrategy,Price/Order,OrderSize,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,Problemorders,而工业渠道注重于挖掘扩展能使之盈利的顾客,LinktoStrategy,CommercialDirectSalesRetailIndustrialGovernment,CustomerGroup,Goodbusiness,butlimitedgrowthGenerallyignored,profitablebutunexcitingWellmanagedValuematureThoughttobeprofitableGoodrelationshipswithcustomersProblemareaNecessaryevil,PriorView,10%increaseingrowthdoublesvalue“Hiddenjewel”-re-addressedmarketingstrategyResultsbelowpeersinregionThroughputidentifiedaskeyvaluedriverSiteacquisitionmodelre-doneAssetintensitythekeyFocusonraisingCFROISignificantproblemarea,PostVBMView,MaintainAggressivegrowthplansSiteimprovementprogramNewstoreformatEvaluateaccountsindividuallyFocusonvaluablecustomersFocusonimprovingCFROIExpandintootherproductsPossibleexit,NextSteps,分析的结果引起显著的战略变化,LinktoStrategy,CorporateOffice,Internal“CapitalMarket”,BU1,BU2,BU3,ProjectLife,Outlay,ProjectLife,Outlay,CashFlow,CashFlow,Project,Project,InternalView,Investors,External“CapitalMarket”,Stock1,Stock2,Stock3,ExternalView,AccountingData,SharePrice,IncomeStatement,BalanceSheet,EPS,ROE,ROCE,CFROI,Growth,WACC,Fade,CFROI,CashFlow,GrossAssets,AssetLife,CFROI既用于外部投资，也由于内部管理,CFROI,CFROI汲取了利润表和资产负债表中的各类数据(1),CFROI汲取了利润表和资产负债表中的各类数据(2),RevenueCostsOperatingProfitTax,ProfitandLossStatement,OperatingMargin,GrossMargin,ExpenseMargin,Sellingcosts,Admincosts,Overheadcosts,Othercosts,RawMaterialcosts,RefiningCosts,Overheadcosts,计划驱动预算,Actual,Budget,Key,16.2%,16.5%,CFROI,OperatingMargin,AssetTurnover,22.1%,23.5%,GrossMargin,5.6%,5.0%,ExpenseMargin,65.2%,60.5%,RawMaterial,RefiningCosts,4.0%,3.5%,SellingCosts,AdminCosts,.87,.90,FixedAssets,12.0,14.0,WorkingCapital,8.0,10.0,Receivables,18.0,20.0,Inventory,75%,80%,UtilisationRate,10%,12%,Maintenance,0.73,8.7%,0.80,17.3%,16.7%,1.0%,1.0%,驱动预算三个主要方面,ProvidesafinancialprofileofthebusinessforcommunicationandanalysisNon-financialmanagersbroughtintovalueequationSummarymeasuresbrokendownintopartsforgreaterfocusGraphicallydisplaysacomparisonofperformancestandardsActualversusbudgetCurrentversushistoricSinopecperformanceversus“bestpractice”Relationshipscanbeusedfor“whatif?”analysis:,AFAFinancialInvestment,AeltusInvestmentMgmt.,Inc.,AlexBrownCapital,AlliedInvestmentAdvisors,AllianceCapitalMgmt.Corp.,AmericanCentury,AmericanCenturyInvestment,AtlanticCapitalMgmt.,AtlasCapital,L.P.,ArdenGroup,Inc.,The,Auchincloss&Lawrence,Inc.,BPAmerica,Inc.,BTRCapitalManagement,Inc.,Bahl&GaynorInvestmentCounsel,BankofAmerica,BayIsleFinancial,Boys,Arnold&Company,CambiarInvestmentInc.,CanyonPartnersInc.,CapitalResearchCo.,CapitalTechnology,CastleRockPartners,ChaseInvestmentCounselCorp.,Citibank,CliffordAssociates,ColumbiaManagementCo.,CompositeResearch&Management,Compu-ValInvestments,CrabbeHusonGroup,Inc.,Cramblit&Carney,Inc.,CreeksideInvestmentManagement,CrestwoodAssetManagement,DavisSelectedAdvisors,L.P.,DavisSkaggsInvestmentMgmt.,DeanWitterIntercapitalInc.,DelawareInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,EagleGlobalAdvisors,EatonCorporation,EdwardJones&Co.,EnrightFinancialConsultants,EquinoxCapitalManagement,Eveans,Bash,Magrino&Klein,Inc.,FarmersInsuranceGroupofCompanies,FirstNationalBank,SWOhio,FlemingCapitalManagement,FrontierInvestmentManagementCo.,FrostNationalBank,GMG/SenecaCapitalManagement,GEMLandCompany,GeneralAccidentInsuranceCo.,GeneralMotorsInv.Mgmt.Corp.,GlobeFlexCapital,Goefen&Glossberg,Inc.,GreenleafCapitalManagement,GriesFinancialCorp.,Guardian,The,HGKAssetManagement,Inc.,Hotchkis&Wiley,HowardHughesMedicalInstitute,HughesInvestmentManagementCo.,HutchensInvestmentManagement,InvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,InvestmentCounselors,Inc.,Janus,JohnsonInvestmentCounsel,Inc.,Jurika&Voyles,Inc.,InvestmentMgmt.,KPMInvestmentManagement,Inc.,KalmarInvestments,Inc.,KanawhaCapitalManagement,KempnerCapitalManagement,Inc.,KennedyCapitalManagement,KunathKarrenRinne&Atkin,Inc.,LegacyCapitalManagement,LeggMasonCapitalMgmt.,Inc.,LeonardManagementGroup,LockheedMartinCorp,LoganCapitalManagement,Inc.,LutherKingCapitalMgmt.,LutheranChurch,The,McMurreyInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,MercantileTrust,MeridianInvestmentCompany,MerrillLynchAssetManagement,MesirowFinancial,MississippiValleyAdvisors,MontagManagement,NationalCityBank,NikeSecuritiesL.P.,NoroianCapitalManagement,NorwestCapitalAdvisors,NWQInvestmentManagementCo.,OppenheimerCapital,OppenheimerFunds,Inc.,OppenheimerManagement,PacificAllianceCapital,ParnassusFund,The,PeregrineCapitalManagement,PhilipV.SwanAssociates,PioneeringManagementCorp.,PlazaInvestmentManagers,Inc.,PrudentialMutualFundInvestment,PSAFinancial,PutnamCompanies,Inc.,RCMCapitalManagement,LLC,RMInvestmentManagement,Inc.,RichardBlum&Associates,Roberts,Glore&Co.,RobertsonStephens&Co.,RogerH.Jenswold&Co.,Inc.,Roulston&Company,Inc.,SalomonBrothersAssetManagement,SandHillAdvisors,Inc.,SchneiderCapital,SCICapitalManagement,Scholtz&Company,SecuritiesManagement&Research,Seligman,J.W.&Co.,Inc.,SentinelTrustCo.,SMCCapitalManagement,SheffieldInvestmentManagement,Shields/Alliance,SignetAssetManagement,SmithBarneyInvestmentAdvisors,SorosFundManagement,SovereignAdvisors,Inc.,SpearsBenzakSalomon&Farrell,SperoSmithInvestmentAdvisers,Inc.,StaffordTrading,StandardPacificCapitalLLC,StarBank,Starbuck,Tisdale&Associates,StateofNewJersey,StateStreetResearch,SteinRow&Farnham,SterlingLtd.,StonebridgeCapitalManagementInc.,StoneleighInvestmentCounseling,StrongCapitalManagement,Inc.,Sturdivant&Company,Inc.,SummitInvestmentManagement,SunLifeofCanada,TigerAssetManagement,T.RowePrice,TexasCommerceBank,TRUSCOCapitalManagement,TrustCompanyoftheWest,USAAInvestmentManagementCo.,VARetirementSystem,W.D.Hutchinson&Associates,WashingtonInvestmentAdvisors,Weiss,Peck&GreerInvestments,WellingtonManagementCompany,WoodsideAssetManagement,FidelityInvestments,InvescoCapitalManagement.,在美国使用CFROI的财务机构,AeltusInvestmentManagement,Inc.AMPInvestmentsAustraliaAmericanExpressAssetManagementIntlAXASunLifeInvestManagementService*BOEAssetManagementBFGBankAGBankersTrustJapanBaringInternationalBritishAerospacePensionInvestmentCISCo-operativeInsuranceSocietyCSAssetManagementCapitalGroupCompanies,Inc.CitibankGlobalAssetManagementDEKADeutscheKapitalanlagegesellschaftDresdnerRCMCapitalManagementDresdnerRCMGlobalInvestorsAsia,Ltd.DeutscheMorganGrenfelAssetManagementEquitilinkFidelityInvestmentServicesFirstStateFundManagersLtd.,Au