曼昆经济学原理Cha.ppt

MoneyGrowthandInflation,1,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Inflation,InflationIncreaseintheoveralllevelofpricesHyperinflationExtraordinarilyhighrateofinflationDeflationDecreaseintheoveralllevelofprices,2,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheClassicalTheoryofInflation,“Classical”theoryofmoneyQuantitytheoryofmoneyNowadays,thistheoryisusedtoexplainthelong-rundeterminantsofthepricelevelandtheinflationrate,3,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,LevelofPrices;ValueofMoney,Inflation-riseinthepricelevelOnedollar-buysasmallerquantityofgoodsandservicesLowerthevalueofmoneyIfthepricelevelismeasuredbyP,thenthevalueofmoneycanbedenotedby(1/P)P:amountofdollarsneededtobuyafixedbasketofgoodsandservices(1/P):amountofgoodsandservicesthatcanbeboughtwith$1,4,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheClassicalTheoryofInflation,MoneydemandReflectshowmuchwealthpeoplewanttoholdinliquidform(i.e.,money)DependsonAvailabilityofATM&creditcardInterestrateAveragelevelofpricesineconomy(P)DemandcurvedownwardslopingRelativetothevalueofmoney(1/P),5,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheClassicalTheoryofInflation,MoneysupplyDeterminedbythecentralbankandthebankingsystemSupplycurveverticalInthelongrunOveralllevelofpricesadjuststo:Thelevelatwhichthedemandformoneyequalsthesupply,6,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Figure1,7,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,HowtheSupplyandDemandforMoneyDeterminetheEquilibriumPriceLevel,Equilibriumvalueofmoney,Equilibriumpricelevel,Thehorizontalaxisshowsthequantityofmoney.Theleftverticalaxisshowsthevalueofmoney,andtherightverticalaxisshowsthepricelevel.ThesupplycurveformoneyisverticalbecausethequantityofmoneysuppliedisfixedbytheFed.Thedemandcurveformoneyisdownwardslopingbecausepeoplewanttoholdalargerquantityofmoneywheneachdollarbuysless.Attheequilibrium,pointA,thevalueofmoney(ontheleftaxis)andthepricelevel(ontherightaxis)haveadjustedtobringthequantityofmoneysuppliedandthequantityofmoneydemandedintobalance.,EffectsofaMonetaryInjection,EconomyinitiallyinequilibriumThecentralbankdoublesthesupplyofmoneyPrintsbillsanddropsthemonmarketOr,open-marketpurchasebycentralbankNewequilibriumSupplycurveshiftsrightValueofmoneydecreasesPricelevelincreases,8,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Figure2,9,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,AnIncreaseintheMoneySupply,WhentheFedincreasesthesupplyofmoney,themoneysupplycurveshiftsfromMS1toMS2.Thevalueofmoney(ontheleftaxis)andthepricelevel(ontherightaxis)adjusttobringsupplyanddemandbackintobalance.TheequilibriummovesfrompointAtopointB.Thus,whenanincreaseinthemoneysupplymakesdollarsmoreplentiful,thepricelevelincreases,makingeachdollarlessvaluable.,1.Anincreaseinthemoneysupply.,2.decreasesthevalueofmoney.,3.andincreasesthepricelevel.,EffectsofaMonetaryInjection,QuantitytheoryofmoneyThequantityofmoneyavailableintheeconomydeterminesthevalueofmoney,andconsequentlythepricelevelGrowthrateinquantityofmoneydeterminestheinflationrate,10,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,EffectsofaMonetaryInjection,AdjustmentprocessExcesssupplyofmoneyIncreaseindemandofgoodsandservicesPriceofgoodsandservicesincreasesIncreaseinpricelevelIncreaseinquantityofmoneydemandedNewequilibrium,11,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,ClassicalDichotomy,NominalvariablesVariablesmeasuredinmonetaryunitsDollarprices,nominalwage,nominalinterestrateRealvariablesVariablesmeasuredinphysicalunitsRelativeprices,realwages,realinterestrateClassicaldichotomyDichotomy:divisionintotwogroupsSeparationofnominalandrealvariableseg.realGDPvs.nominalGDP,12,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,ClassicalDichotomy,ChangesinthemonetarysystemInfluencejustnominalvariablesIrrelevantforexplainingrealvariables(eg.)RealGDPinthelongrunMonetaryneutralityChangesinmoneysupplydontaffectrealvariablesNotcompletelyrealisticinshort-runCorrectinthelongrun,13,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Velocity&theQuantityEquation,Velocityofmoney(V)RateatwhichmoneychangeshandsV=(PY)/MP=pricelevel(GDPdeflator)Y=realGDP(PY)=nominalvalueofoutputM=quantityofmoney,14,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Velocity&theQuantityEquation,Quantityequation:MV=PYQuantityofmoney(M)Velocityofmoney(V)Dollarvalueoftheeconomysoutputofgoodsandservices(PY)Shows:anincreaseinquantityofmoneyMustbereflectedinoneofthefollowings:PricelevelmustriseQuantityofoutputmustriseVelocityofmoneymustfall,15,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,QuantityTheoryofMoney,VelocityofmoneyRelativelystableovertimeChangesinquantityofmoney,MProportionatechangesinnominalvalueofoutput(PY)Economysoutputofgoods&services,YPrimarilydeterminedbyfactorsuppliesAndavailableproductiontechnologyMoneydoesnotaffectoutput,16,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,QuantityTheoryofMoney,Changeinmoneysupply,MInducesproportionalchangesinthenominalvalueofoutput(PY)Reflectedinchangesinthepricelevel(P)Centralbank-increasesthemoneysupplyrapidlyHighrateofinflation,17,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Figure3,18,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,NominalGDP,theQuantityofMoney,andtheVelocityofMoney,ThisfigureshowsthenominalvalueofoutputasmeasuredbynominalGDP,thequantityofmoneyasmeasuredbyM2,andthevelocityofmoneyasmeasuredbytheirratio.Forcomparability,allthreeserieshavebeenscaledtoequal100in1960.NoticethatnominalGDPandthequantityofmoneyhavegrowndramaticallyoverthisperiod,whilevelocityhasbeenrelativelystable.,Moneyandpricesduringfourhyperinflations,HyperinflationInflationthatexceeds50%permonthPricelevel-increasesmorethanahundredfoldoverthecourseofayearDataonhyperinflationClearlinkbetweenQuantityofmoneyAndthepricelevel,19,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Moneyandpricesduringfourhyperinflations,Fourclassichyperinflation,1920sAustria,Hungary,Germany,andPolandSlopeofthemoneylineRateatwhichthequantityofmoneywasgrowingSlopeofthepriceline-inflationrateThesteeperthelines-thehighertheratesofmoneygrowthorinflationPricesrisewhenthegovernmentprintstoomuchmoney,20,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Figure4,21,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflations,Thisfigureshowsthequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelduringfourhyperinflations.(Notethatthesevariablesaregraphedonlogarithmicscales.Thismeansthatequalverticaldistancesonthegraphrepresentequalpercentagechangesinthevariable.)Ineachcase,thequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelmovecloselytogether.Thestrongassociationbetweenthesetwovariablesisconsistentwiththequantitytheoryofmoney,whichstatesthatgrowthinthemoneysupplyistheprimarycauseofinflation.,Figure4,22,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflations,Thisfigureshowsthequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelduringfourhyperinflations.(Notethatthesevariablesaregraphedonlogarithmicscales.Thismeansthatequalverticaldistancesonthegraphrepresentequalpercentagechangesinthevariable.)Ineachcase,thequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelmovecloselytogether.Thestrongassociationbetweenthesetwovariablesisconsistentwiththequantitytheoryofmoney,whichstatesthatgrowthinthemoneysupplyistheprimarycauseofinflation.,Figure4,23,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflations,Thisfigureshowsthequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelduringfourhyperinflations.(Notethatthesevariablesaregraphedonlogarithmicscales.Thismeansthatequalverticaldistancesonthegraphrepresentequalpercentagechangesinthevariable.)Ineachcase,thequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelmovecloselytogether.Thestrongassociationbetweenthesetwovariablesisconsistentwiththequantitytheoryofmoney,whichstatesthatgrowthinthemoneysupplyistheprimarycauseofinflation.,Figure4,24,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflations,Thisfigureshowsthequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelduringfourhyperinflations.(Notethatthesevariablesaregraphedonlogarithmicscales.Thismeansthatequalverticaldistancesonthegraphrepresentequalpercentagechangesinthevariable.)Ineachcase,thequantityofmoneyandthepricelevelmovecloselytogether.Thestrongassociationbetweenthesetwovariablesisconsistentwiththequantitytheoryofmoney,whichstatesthatgrowthinthemoneysupplyistheprimarycauseofinflation.,TheInflationTax,TheinflationtaxRevenuethegovernmentraisesbycreating(printing)moneyGovtuse“moneycreation”asawaytopayforitsspendingTaxoneveryonewhoholdsmoneyWhenthegovernmentprintsmoneyThepricelevelrisesThemoneyinyourwalletarelessvaluable(i.e.,losingvalue),25,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheFisherEffect,PrincipleofmonetaryneutralityAnincreaseintherateofmoneygrowthRaisestherateofinflationButdoesnotaffectanyrealvariableTendtoholdinthelong-runAnotherapplicationRealinterestrate=NominalinterestrateInflationrateNominalinterestrate=Realinterestrate+Inflationrate,26,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheFisherEffect,FishereffectOne-for-oneadjustmentofnominalinterestratetoinflationrateintheLRWhenthecentralbankincreasestherateofmoneygrowthLong-runresultHigherinflationrateHighernominalinterestrate,27,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Figure5,28,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheNominalInterestRateandtheInflationRate,Thisfigureusesannualdatasince1960toshowthenominalinterestrateonthree-monthTreasurybillsandtheinflationrateasmeasuredbytheconsumerpriceindex.ThecloseassociationbetweenthesetwovariablesisevidencefortheFishereffect:Whentheinflationraterises,sodoesthenominalinterestrate.,TheCostsofInflation,Inflationfallacy“Inflationrobspeopleofthepurchasingpowerofhishard-earneddollars”Inflationdirectlylowerslivingstandard-wrongWhenpricesriseBuyerspaymore&SellersgetmoreInflationin(nominal)incomegoeshandinhandwithinflationinpricesInflationdoesnotinitselfreducepeoplesrealpurchasingpower,29,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,TheCostsofInflation,Whyisinflationaproblem?MonetarychangeshavesomeeffectonrealvariablesShoe-leathercostsResourceswastedwheninflationencouragespeopletoreducetheirmoneyholdingsMorefrequenttripstobanksorshopsPeoplesresponsetoinflationtaxdeadweightlossMenucostsCostsofchangingpricesInflationincreasesmenucostsfirmsmustbear,30,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Relative-PriceVariability,RelativepriceskeyvariableinallocatingscarceresourcesinmarketeconomiesConsumersdecidewhattobuybycomparingqualityandpricesofvariousproductsThroughthis,allocationofscarcefactorsofproductionisdeterminedInflation-distortsrelativepricesPriceadjustmentspeeddifferacrossproductsConsumerdecisionsdistortedMarkets-lessabletoallocateresourcestotheirbestuse,31,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Inflation-InducedTaxDistortions,TaxesdistortincentivesManytaxes-moreproblematicinthepresenceofinflationTaxlawsoftennotconsiderinflationeffectsTaxtreatmentofcapitalgainsCapitalgains:profitsmadewhensellinganassetformorethanitspurchaseprice(eg.)Realestate,securitiesInflationexaggeratesthesizeofcapitalgainsIncreasesthetaxburdenInflationmaydiscouragessaving,32,2012Cengage,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Inflation-InducedTaxDistortions,TaxtreatmentofinterestincomeNominalinterestearnedonsavingsTreatedasincomeEventhoughpartofthenominalinterestratecompensatesforinflationHigherinflationTendstodiscouragepeoplefromsaving,33,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,Table1,34,2012CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.,HowInflationRaisestheTaxBurdenonSaving,Inthepresenceofzeroinflation,a25percenttaxoninterestincomereducestherealinterestratefrom4percentto3percent.Inthepresenceof8percentinflation,thesametaxreducestherealinterestratefrom4percentto1percent.,ConfusionandInconvenience,MoneyYardstickwithwhichwemeasureeconomictransactionsMainjobofthecentralbankEnsurethereliabili