公司理财本科班第八讲红利政策和资本结构

第八讲支付政策和资本结构,CorporateFinance,支付政策PAYOUTPOLICY,CorporateFinance,FACTSABOUTPAYOUT,CashDividendversusStockRepurchaseCashDividendDividendsarerarelycutback,managersdonotincreasedividendsunlessconfidentthatdividendcanbemaintainedStockRepurchaseRepurchasesaremoreflexibleandrepurchasesaretax-advantaged,DividendPayment,ExxonMobildeclaresquarterlydividendof$.42pershare,Sharesstarttotradeex-dividend,Dividendwillbepaidtoshareholdersregisteredonthisdate,Dividendchecksmailedtoshareholders,January5,2012,February8,2012,February10,2012,March9,2012,Declarationdate公告,Ex-dividendDate除息日Datethatdetermineswhenstockholderisentitledtodividendpayment,RecordDate登记日Personwhoownsstockonthisdatereceivesdividend,PaymentDate支付日,Formsofdividendpayment,CashDividend（现金分红）SpecialCashDividendRegularCashDividendStockDividend（送股）DistributionofadditionalsharestofirmsstockholdersStockSplits（股票拆细）Issueofadditionalsharestofirmsstockholders,NoEffectonfirmvalue,ShareRepurchase,FourmethodsBuySharesontheOpenMarketTenderOffertoShareholders（要约收购，20%over-price）DutchAuction（荷兰式拍卖，投资者报出卖股数）PrivateNegotiation(greenmail),DividendPaymentvsShareRepurchase,ShareRepurchaseactslikebumperdividends(逆回购充当缓冲器):企业经营好时，积累大量未使用资金，通过逆回购改变资本结构。经济繁荣时股票逆回购较多。DittmarandDittmar2004:Repurchasesincreasewithincreasesinbothpermanentandtransitoryearnings.Changeindividendspaidisnotrelatedtotransitoryearningsbutratheronlypermanentshiftsinearningsthatresultfromchangesinthemacro-economy.,Researchapproach,Step1:Temporyearnings:cointegrationresidualPermanentearnings:impactthatchangesofGDPhaveonaggregatepayoutpolicyStep2:Investigaterelationbetweenchangesinstockrepurchase(dividend)andearnings,Informationcontentofdividendandrepurchases,DividendstockrepurchasedecisionscontaininformationDividendincreasescouldmeanoverpricedstockorincreasedfutureprofitsStockrepurchasecouldmeanunderpricedstockorincreasedfutureprofitsSignalvariesbasedonpriorinformationaboutcompany,Ispayoutrelevant？,Middle-of-the-roadparty(中间派),Dividendpolicyisirrelevantinperfectcapitalmarket（ModiglianiandMiller）:,Rightist（保守派）,DividendsincreasevalueDividendincreasessendgoodnewsaboutcash-flowearningsDividendcutssendbadnewsHigh-dividendpayoutpolicywillbecostlytofirmsthatdonothavecashflowtosupportitDividendincreasessignalcompanysgoodfortuneIncreaseinmanagersconfidenceinfuturecashflow,Leftist（激进派）,TheDividendClienteleHypothesis:Evidencefromthe2003TaxAct(Kawano,2014,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy);Dodividendclientelesexist?Evidenceondividendpreferencesofretailinvestors(GrahamandKumar,2006,JournalofFinance);LocalDividendClienteles(Beckeretal.,2011,JournalofFinance);Juicingthedividendyield(Harrisetal.,2015,JournalofFinancialEconomics).Shareholdersinhightaxbracketspreferlow-dividendpayingstocksandshareholdersinlowtaxbracketspreferhigh-dividendpayingstocks.若红利应税税率高于资本利得应税税率，公司就应尽可能少发红利，以留存现金或回购股票。,Conclusion,Highdividendpayingstockswillbepreferredbytaxexemptorganizationsandlowincomeinvestors;thosestocksyieldingmoreoftheirreturnintheformofcapitalgainswillgravitatetothetaxpayersintheuppertaxbrackets(Miller1977).,资本结构CAPITALSTRUCTURE,CorporateFinance,MMandPeckingOrderTheorem,“M-M理论”“啄食顺序理论”“内源融资间接融资债务融资,ModiglianiandMiller(MM),Proposition1:（MM第一定理）CapitalstructuredoesnotaffectcashflowasNotaxesNobankruptcycostsNoeffectonmanagementincentives,ModiglianiandMiller(MM),Proposition1:（MM第一定理）CapitalstructuredoesnotaffectcashflowasNotaxesNobankruptcycostsNoeffectonmanagementincentives,PropositionIandMM,Inperfectmarket,leveragehasnoimpactonoperatingincomeandmarketvalueofallsecurities.,PropositionIIandMM,Inperfectmarket,expectedrateofreturnoncommonstockofaleveredfirmincreasesinproportiontothedebt-equityratio(D/E),expressedinmarketvalues.,Financialriskandexpectedreturns,PropositionIIandMM,Whenthefirmislevered,shareholdersrequireapremiumof(rArD)*D/E,Anexampleforleveragerisk,Marketvalueoffirm:10000USDNoleveredfirm:10USD*1000sharesLeveredfirm:borrow5000USDthroughdebtwithinterestrate10%,thenpurchase500sharesat10USD.,Leverageandcostofequity,Leverageandcostofequity,Weighted-AverageCostofCapital(WACC),PROPOSITIONIIandMM,WACCTRADITIONALVIEW,After-TaxWACC,Debtratio=(D/V)=7.6/22.6=.34or34%Equityratio=(E/V)=15/22.6=.66or66%,After-TaxWACC,Leverageriskandbetas,Whyfirmsuseleverage?Tax-deductibleinterest,Thetaxdeductibilityofinterestincreasesthetotalincomethatcanbepaidouttobondholdersandstockholders,Tax-deductibleinterest,Corporatetaxes-Example,YouownallequityofSpaceBabiesDiaperCo.CompanyhasnodebtCompanyhasannualcashflowof$900,000beforeinterestandtaxesCorporatetaxrateis35%Attimezero,youhavetheoptiontoexchange1/2ofyourequitypositionfor5%bondswithfacevalueof$2,000,000.AssumeREforunleveredfirmequalsto5%aswell.Shouldyoudothisandwhy?,Corporatetaxes-Examples,ExampleContinued,TotalCashFlowAllequity=585*1/2debt=620(520+100),Corporatetaxes-permanenteffect,*0.05,Corporatetaxes,ExampleAll-equityvalue=585/.05=11,700,000PVtaxshield=700,000Firmvalueofdebt=$12,400,000,Costsoffinancialdistress,r,D,E,BondYield,StructureofBondYieldRates,Costsoffinancialdistress:TraditionalViewofWACCWithoutTaxes,Financialdistressoccurswhenpromisestocreditorsarebrokenorhonoredwithdifficulty.,Costsoffinancialdistress,CostofFinancialDistressCostsarisingfrombankruptcyordistortedbusinessdecisionsbeforebankruptcyMarketValueEqualsValueIf:All-equityfinanced+PVtaxshieldPVcostsoffinancialdistress,Costsoffinancialdistress,Directcostsoffinancialdistress,CircularFilecompanyhas$50ofone-yeardebt,Costsoffinancialdistress,CircularFileCompanyhas$50ofone-yeardebt,Whydoesequityhaveanyvalue?Shareholderoptiontoobtainrightstoassetsbypaying$50debt,Indirectcostsoffinancialdistress,CircularFileCompanyinvests$10,assumesadiscountrateof50%fortheproject,AssumeNPVofprojectis(=$-2)Whatiseffectonmarketvalues?,Costsoffinancialdistress,CircularFileCompanyValue,Post-ProjectFirmvaluefallsby$2Equity-holdergains$3,Costsoffinancialdistress,CircularFileCompanyValueAssumessafeprojectwithNPV=$5Firmvaluerisesandlackofpotentialpayoffforshareholderscausesdecreaseinequityvalue,Costsoffinancialdistress,HenriettaKetchuphastwopossibleinvestmentprojects,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES金融选择中的啄食顺序理论,Trade-OffTheoryTheorythatcapitalstructureisbasedontrade-offbetweentaxsavingsanddistresscostsofdebtPecking-OrderTheoryTheorystatingfirmsprefertoissuedebtoverequityifinternalfinancesareinsufficient,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,Trade-OffTheoryandPricesStock-for-debtexchangeoffersresultsinstockpricefallingInversely,debt-for-stockexchangeoffersresultsinstockpricerisingIssuingcommonstockdrivesdownstockprices,whereasrepurchasesincreasestockpricesIssuingstraightdebthassmallnegativeimpact,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,IssuesandStockPricesWhydosecurityissuesaffectstockpriceswhendemandforfirmssecuritiesshouldbeflat?AnyfirmisdropinbucketPlentyofclosesubstitutesLargedebtissuesdonotsignificantlydepressstockprice,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,Pecking-OrderTheoryFirmspreferinternalfinanceAdapttargetdividendpayoutratiostoinvestmentopportunitieswhileavoidingchangesindividends,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,Pecking-OrderTheoryInternallygeneratedcashflowssometimesmorethancapitalexpenditures,othertimesnotDuetodividendpolicies,plusfluctuationsinprofitabilityandinvestmentopportunitiesIfmore,firmpaysoffdebtorinvestsinmarketablesecuritiesIfless,firmfirstdrawsdowncashbalanceorsellsmarketablesecurities,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,Pecking-OrderTheoryIfexternalfinancesarerequired,firmsissuethesafestsecurityfirstTheystartwithdebtthenpossiblyhybridsecurities,suchasconvertiblebonds,thenequityasalastresort,PECKINGORDEROFFINANCIALCHOICES,Pecking-OrderTheoryInternalequitymaybebetterthanexternalequityFinancialslackisvaluableIfexternalcapitalisrequireddebtisbetterThereislessroomfordifferenceinopinionsaboutwhatdebtisworth,FirmValuationandcapitalstructure,CapitalProjectAdjustmentsDiscountrateModifytoreflectcapitalstructure,bankruptcyrisk,otherfactorsPresentvalueAssumefirmfinancedentirelybyequity,makeadjustmentstovaluebasedonfinancing,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Tax-AdjustedFormula,Example:SangriaCorporationFirmhasmarginaltaxrateof35%.Costofequityis12.4%,pretaxcostofdebtis6%.Givenbookandmarket-valuebalancesheets,whatistax-adjustedWACC?,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,Continued,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,ContinuedDebtratio=(D/V)=500/1,250=.4,or40%Equityratio=(E/V)=750/1,250=.6,or60%,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,ContinuedSangriawantstoinvestinmachinewithcashflowsof$1.731millionperyearpre-tax.Whatisvalueofmachine,giveninitialinvestmentof$12.5million?,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,Continued,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,Continued,After-taxweighted-averagecostofcapital,Example,Continued,Valuingbusinesses,Businessvalueusuallycomputedasdiscountedvalueoffuturecashflows(FCF)toavaluationhorizon(H)Horizonvalueisalsocalledterminalvalue,Valuingbusinesses,Inthiscase,r=WACC,Free-cash-flowprojections,riocorporation($Millions),Free-cash-flowprojections,riocorporation($Millions),Valuingbusinesses,Example:RioCorporationFreecashflow=profitaftertax+depreciationinvestmentinfixedassetsinvestmentinworkingcapitalFCF=8.7+9.9(109.695)(11.611.1)=$3.5million,Valuingbusinesses,Example,Continued,Valuingbusinesses,Flow-to-EquityMethodDiscountcashflowstoequityatcostofequitycapital,afterinterestandtaxesIffirmhasconstantdebtratioovertime,flowtoequitywillgivesameanswerasdiscountingtotalcashflowsatWACCandsubtractingdebt,UsingWACCinpractice,After-TaxWACCPreferredstockandotherformsoffinancingmustbeincludedinformula,UsingWACCinpractice,Example,ContinuedCalculateWACCforSangriaCorporationgivenpreferredstockis$25millionoftotalequityandyields10%,UsingWACCinpractice,DeterminingCostsofFinancingDerivereturnonequityfrommarketdataCostofdebtsetbymarket,ratingoffirmsdebtPreferredstockoftenhaspresetdividendrate,Example:SangriaCorporationFirmhasmarginaltaxrateof35%.Costofeq