基于农村住户调查的农村贫困统计.ppt

2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis1,RuralPovertyStatisticsinChina：BasedonRuralHouseholdSurveys,TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysisNovember1-8,OctoberBeijingYanFangDepartmentofRuralSurveyNationalBureauofStatistics,基于农村住户调查的农村贫困统计,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis2,改革开放后中国的扶贫开发PovertyAlleviationinPost-reformChina,4periods:1978-19851986-19931994-20002001-2010,中国农村扶贫开发战略的历史演变（四个阶段）,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis3,1978-1985,贫困减少主要依靠整体经济增长和经济体制改革Economicgrowthandsocialtransitionscontributedthemostinpovertyalleviationduringthisperiod,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis4,1986-1993,中国政府从1986年起开始直接针对贫困地区和贫困人口进行农村扶贫开发。Regionaldevelopmentapproachesandself-developmentofruralhouseholds开发式扶贫项目，增强自我发展能力Development-orientedanti-povertyactivities,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis5,1994-2000,实施国家八七扶贫攻坚计划，扶贫开发进入攻坚阶段8-7plan力争用7年时间，基本解决全国农村8000万贫困人口的温饱问题Basicallyeliminatetheabsolutepovertyin7years592个国定贫困县592designated“nationalpoorcounties”针对贫困人口Aimingatthepoorpopulation,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis6,2001-2010,实施中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2001-2010）TheDevelopmentOrientatedPovertyAlleviationPrograminRuralChina(2001-2010)扶贫任务不仅是解决贫困人口的温饱问题，也要帮助初步解决温饱、但还不巩固的贫困人口增加经济收入，改善生产生活条件，实现稳定解决温饱。Solvethesubsistenceproblemsoftheremainingabsolutepoorandhelpthelow-incomegrouptoimprovetheirdevelopmentcapability多元贫困：强调综合开发、全面发展，不但要加强基础设施建设，也要重视科技、教育、卫生、文化事业的发展，改善社区环境，提高生活质量，促进贫困地区经济、社会的协调发展和全面进步Multi-dimensionalityofpoverty参与式扶贫Participatoryapproachesforpovertyreduction,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis7,贫困监测的发展EvolutionofPovertyMonitoring,1986年开始使用贫困发生率的概念Introducepovertyincidencein19861995年开始用国际通行的方法测算贫困线Determinepovertylineusingtheinternationallyacceptedmethod1997年起在592个国定贫困县/扶贫重点县进行贫困监测592countypovertymonitoringsince19972001年改进调查方案以反映多元贫困及进行扶贫活动的影响评估Reformnationalpovertymonitoringprogramin2001tobetterreflectthemulti-dimensionalityofpovertyandtoevaluatetheimpactofpovertyreductionactivitiesmoreobjectively,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis8,贫困统计数据来源DataSourceofPovertyStatistics,全国农村住户抽样调查NationalRuralHouseholdSurvey全国农村贫困监测抽样调查NationalRuralPovertyMonitoringSurvey专项贫困监测调查SpecialPovertyMonitoringSurvey全国县乡村统计资料RegionalStatisticsthroughAdministrativeReports,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis9,1954年首次使用住户调查方法收集农村社会经济数据。国家统计局在全国抽选了15,432个农村住户进行收入、支出和住房情况进行调查。RHShasbeencarriedouttocollectsocio-economicdatainruralChina,withthefirstuseintheyearof1954,whenNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)selected15,432ruralhouseholdsforsurveyonincome,expenditure,andhousing,etc.,NationalRuralHouseholdSurvey全国农村住户抽样调查,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis10,上世纪八十年代中期以后快速发展，快速发展的标志是专业化调查组织机构的建立。RHSgotonfastdevelopmentafterthemiddle1980s,whichwasmarkedbytheestablishmentofprofessionalRuralSurveyOrganizations.,NationalRuralHouseholdSurvey全国农村住户抽样调查,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis11,强大的调查组织机构Powerfulsurveyorganization一支高素质的调查队伍Capablesurveyteam一个综合性、连续性住户调查方案Comprehensiveandconsistenthouseholdsurveyquestionnaire组织大规模专项调查取得了丰富的经验Richexperiencesinorganizinglarge-scalespecialsurveys现代信息技术被广泛应用到调查当中Updatedhigh-techhasbeenappliedinsurvey数据质量受到国内外用户的一致好评Dataqualityishighlycommendedbyusersathomeandabroad调查结果成为了政府决策的重要依据Surveyresultsprovideimportantbasisforgovernmentdecisionmaking,全国农村住户抽样调查强大的住户调查系统PowerfulHouseholdSurveySystem,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis12,全国农村住户抽样调查Objectives调查目的,全面反映农村居民收入增长、生活水平改善过程Givingacomprehensivepictureontheincomegrowthandlivingstandardimprovementofruralresidents监测农村反贫进程monitoringthepovertyalleviationprocessinruralareas,andproducingdataforthecompilationofChinasnationalaccounts为党和政府的宏观决策提供依据Providingobjectivedataforalllevelsofgovernmentstomakepoliciesanddecisionsonruraleconomicdevelopment为国民经济综合平衡提供资料producingdataforthecompilationofChinasnationalaccounts为农民家庭发展生产、科学理财提供帮助Helpruralhouseholdsimprovescientificfinancing,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis13,全国农村住户抽样调查Functioninpovertymonitoring在贫困监测方面的作用,用来测算贫困线、推算全国和分省农村贫困人口数量、反映农村贫困特征Forsettingpovertyline,estimatingnationalandprovincialpovertyincidenceandpoorpopulation,describingruralpovertystatusandfeatures,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis14,国家统计局农村司负责，调查方案由国家统计局统一制订RuralSurveyOrganization(RSO)ofNBS在每个省都有调查队，各省具体负责组织实施Surveybranchineachprovince在857个国家调查县成立调查队857sampledcountiesallovercountry全国约有8000名专职调查员Morethan8,000staffsnationwide每村聘用一名辅助调查员，负责本村10个调查户的记账工作Anenumeratorineachvillage,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyOrganizationandImplementation调查的组织与实施,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis15,全国农村住户抽样调查Coverage调查范围,样本分布在全国31个省，对全国和分省贫困状况有代表性Alltheprovinces，representativeatnationalandprovinciallevel部分省扩充地方点，使得数据在县一级有代表性Expandingthesamplestomeetthecountylevelestimates,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis16,全国农村住户抽样调查Sampling样本抽选,样本抽选方法分层(分省)二相抽样（大样本，小样本）两阶段（省抽村、村抽户）：随机起点、对称等距相结合Samplingmethodstratification(byprovince),twophases（PSU，SSU）twostage(selectvillagesandselecthouseholds),randomly,systematicsamplingmethod.,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis17,全国农村住户抽样调查Sampling样本抽选,编制抽样框:使用农业普查资料Samplingframe:agriculturalcensus.用样本单位的人均纯收入排队，根据累计人口指标建立抽样框Rankingpercapitanetincomeusingtheaccumulatedpopulationassupplement.在95%的概率把握程度下要求抽样误差系数不得超过3%95%confidence,samplingerrornotexceed3%,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis18,全国农村住户抽样调查Samplesize样本量,857个调查县，7100个调查村，68,000农户68,000householdsdistributedin857samplecounties(accountingfor1/3oftotalnumberofcounties),7,100samplevillages,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis19,调查样本的轮换周期为5年RHSrotationsamplingschemeona5-yearbasis最近的两次样本轮换分别在2000年和2005年Latest2rotationsin2000and2005,全国农村住户抽样调查SampleRotation样本轮换,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis20,较长时间以来，中国农村住户调查一直有着较高的回答率，这主要归功于农村住户与调查员之间的高度配合。RHShasarelativelyhighresponserateinChina,duetotheruralresidencesincliningtocooperatewiththeinterviewer.,全国农村住户抽样调查Responserate回答率,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis21,全国农村住户抽样调查Frequency调查期及报告期,调查年度从上年12月1日起本年11月30日Surveyyear:1Dec.to30Nov.报告期分别为年报和季报Yearly+Quarterly季报包括农村居民现金收支和主要农产品出售情况Quarterly:cashincome/expenditure/investment,saleofagriculturalproducts年报包括农村住户调查的全部报表Yearly:alltheindicators,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis22,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,包括6个主题：收入与支出、人口与就业、住房、住户家庭基本情况、土地与农业生产、住户居住的社区环境Sixsubjects:incomeandexpenditure,populationandemployment,housing,basicinformationofhousehold,landandagriculturalproduction,basiccommunityinformation.,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis23,1.收入与支出IncomeandExpenditure主要内容包括：住户总收入及收入来源、住户生活消费总支出及支出结构、食品消费、住户生产经营总支出及支出结构Itincludestotalincomeandsourceoftheincome,totallivingexpenditureanddetailedcomponents,foodconsumption,expenditureforhouseholdbusinessanddetailedcomponents.,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis24,2.人口与就业PopulationandEmployment主要内容包括：住户人口数量与特征，住户经济活动人口的素质、就业时间、主要从事的职业及社会保障，住户经济活动人口外出从业的地点、时间、从事的职业、收入及消费情况，已外出从业的经济活动返回居住地的情况Itmainlyincludeshouseholdsize,householdandindividualcharacteristics,educationattainment,timeofemployment,mainjobandsocialsecuritycoverage,address/time/job/incomeandexpenditureofmigrantlabors.,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis25,3.住房Housing主要内容包括：调查时点实际拥有的住房面积、价值及质量，住房的卫生、取暖、饮水供应及外部环境，年内新建住房面积、价值、质量及建房资金来源Itmainlyincludesfloorarea,valueandqualityatthetimepointofsurvey;sanitaryware,heating,drinkingwatersupply,andsurroundings;floorarea,value,quality,andfundingsourceofnewlybuilthousesintheyear.,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis26,4.住户家庭基本情况BasicInformationofHousehold主要内容包括：住户家庭的类型、参加合作经济组织、享有的社会保障情况，住户拥有的生产性固定资产的种类、数量及价值，住户拥有的耐用消费品的种类、数量及价值Itmainlyincludescategoryofhousehold;ifthehouseholdjoininginanyeconomicsetups;coverageofsocialsecurity;fixedassetsforpurposeofproduction(type,quantityandvalue);durablegoods(type,quantityandvalue).,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis27,5.土地与农业生产LandandAgriculturalProduction主要内容包括：住户实际经营的土地类型、数量，经营土地的流转情况，所经营土地的农作物种植结构及产出，农业生产中现代农业技术的应用情况Itmainlyincludestype,areaoflandoperatedbyahousehold;statusoflandcirculation;cropsgrownandyield;useofupdatedtechnologyinagricultureproduction.,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis28,6.住户居住的社区环境CommunityInformation主要内容包括：住户所居住村庄的规模、资源拥有情况、非农业发展状况，村庄离城镇的距离，村庄离医疗卫生、学校、邮局、车站（码头）等公共服务设施的距离Itmainlyincludespopulationofthevillage,resourcesinpossession,developmentofnon-agriculturalsectors,distancefromvillagetotowncenter,distancefromvillagetoclinic,school,postoffice,railwaystation(quay).,全国农村住户抽样调查SurveyContent调查内容,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis29,三个层次的调查数据：村级户级个人Threelevels:Village/CommunityHouseholdIndividual,全国农村住户抽样调查Data数据,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis30,采用了两种数据采集方法：收入与支出调查主题采用日记帐方法，其他调查主题采用调查员入户访问的方法采集数据。Twomethodsareusedfordatacollection:dairy-bookkeepingbysampledhouseholdsforsurveyonincomeandexpenditure,visitinginterviewforothersubjects.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法datacollection,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis31,调查户记帐按照国家统计局统一编制的帐本和要求来记帐。现金收支帐每日一记，实物收支发生一笔记一笔。Thesampledhouseholdsrecordalltheeconomicactivitiessuchasproduction,purchasing,selling,consumptionetc.inadairybook（Cash+Inkind),全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法datacollection,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis32,辅助调查员:负责本村10个调查户的记账工作，接受调查户的咨询，定期督促检查调查户的记账情况，发现问题，及时提出并加以纠正，提高记账质量。Assistantenumerators:topromptthehouseholdtokeepthedairybook,tohelptheilliteracytorecord,tocheckandsortupthedairybookperiodically.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法datacollection,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis33,一次性调查由县级农调队的调查员在年底完成，采取入户面访的调查方式：农村住户所在村基本情况、农村住户家庭基本情况、农村居民居住情况、农村住户人口与就业情况、农业生产结构及技术应用情况调查。县级农调队每月收取调查户的帐本，检查记帐质量，提供帮助，将数据录入到计算机中。Countyinterviewersoftengotovillagestosupervisetherecording,toprovideguidanceorhelp,andtocollectthedairybooksperiodically.Attheendofeachcalendaryear,visitinginterviewsarearrangedforcollectingcommunityinformationaswellasindividualinformation,plussomeadditionalhouseholdinformationlikefixedassets.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法datacollection,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis34,对原始帐页进行分类、审核、汇总、计算，生成统计指标和统计资料，这个过程就是住户调查数据的处理。Codingandclassification,Check,Sumup,Calculation,Getindicators,全国农村住户抽样调查数据处理dataprocession,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis35,全国农村住户抽样调查调查数据的质量控制DataQualityControl,组织培训Train方案设计Design现场调查组织和监测Fieldsurveyorganizing数据处理Dataprocess数据审核Datacheck数据质量评估Dataqualityassessment,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis36,现场复核与逻辑审核相结合On-spotcheckingandlogicchecking人工审核与程序审核相结合Programcheckingandmanualchecking自审、互审与会审相结合Self-checking,cross-checking县队全面审核与省队、总队抽样审核相结合Overallcheckatcountylevelandsamplecheckingatprovinciallevelandnationallevel,全国农村住户抽样调查数据审核DataCheck,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis37,对数据进行质量评估起始于2000年，在此之前我们对调查数据主要是进行技术审查。在数据质量评估中，我们除对抽样误差进行检查外，重点是对非抽样误差和偏差的检查。RHSdataqualityassessmentcommencedin2000.Beforethat,onlytechnicalverificationondatawasapplied.Focusindataqualityassessmentisnon-samplingerrorsandvariance,inadditiontosamplingerrors.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据质量评估DataQualityAssessment,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis38,全国农村住户抽样调查贫困统计指标Povertyindicators,反映多元贫困Resultsprovided贫困线Povertyline以收支共同衡量的贫困规模和贫困发生率Incomeandlivingexpenditurebasedpovertysize,povertyincidence农户收支、生产、消费情况Householdincomeandexpenditure,productionandconsumption农户温饱与饮食健康Nutritionandfoodavailability财产与生活设施Livingfacilitiesandassets,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis39,市场和社会参与情况Marketaccessandparticipation(labormigratingandcreditability)教育和卫生Drinkwatersafetyandeducation基础设施和基本社会服务Accessibilitytoruralinfrastructureandbasicsocialservice社会平等Equality,全国农村住户抽样调查贫困统计指标Povertyindicators,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis40,全国农村住户抽样调查数据发布Datadissemination,每年在全国农村贫困监测报告中发布贫困发生率、贫困规模、贫困分布、贫困特征PovertyincidencepublishedannuallyintheRuralPovertyMonitoringReport与贫困有关一些数据，比如人均纯收入分组数据，每年在中国统计年鉴、中国农村统计年鉴和中国农村住户调查年鉴中公布SomedatarelatedtopovertysuchastheproportionofruralhouseholdsbypercapitaannualnetincomearepublishedannuallyinChinaStatisticalYearbook,RuralStatisticalYearbookofChinaandRuralHouseholdSurveyYearbookannually.,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis41,NationalPovertyMonitoringSurvey全国农村贫困监测抽样调查,调查范围：592个重点县Coverage:592nationalkeycounties样本量：52,000个农户Samplesize:52,000households抽样方法：与RHS相似Samplingmethod:sameasinRHS数据采集方式：与RHS相似Datacollection:sameasinRHS,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis42,在全国农村住户调查的基础上增加/强化：营养健康状况、儿童就学情况、借贷情况扶贫投资情况、资金使用及扶贫成果、扶贫活动参与情况（县级、村级、户级）RHS+nutrition,healthcondition,childrenschooling,creditabilityinformationonpovertyreductionfundandprojectinthecounties,villages,households,全国农村贫困监测抽样调查调查内容Surveycontent,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis43,重点县分省结果：扶贫活动参与情况、资金瞄准、影响评估关于儿童就学、健康和劳动力转移更为详尽的资料Resultsprovidedfornationalpoorkeycountiesbyprovince.povertyreductionprojectparticipation,targetingandimpactevaluationMoredetailedinformationonchildrensschooling,health,andlabormigration,全国农村贫困监测抽样调查贫困统计指标Povertyindicators,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis44,Specialpovertymonitoringsurveys专项贫困监测调查,三个专项世行贫困监测调查：西南（广西、贵州、云南）、秦巴（四川、陕西、宁夏）、西部（内蒙和甘肃）贫困监测调查，分别从1995年，1997年，1999年开始，每个项目持续6年。抽样方法、数据收集方法与农村住户调查和贫困监测调查类似。详细调查结果和分析每年分别发布在西南贫困监测报告、秦巴贫困监测报告和西部贫困监测报告上，其中包括贫困发生率、贫困深度、贫困强度，按文化程度、是否少数民族、离县城距离、家庭结构分解的贫困分布等内容。Surveys:South-WestPovertyMonitoringSurvey(SWPMS)QinbaMountainAreaPovertyMonitoringSurvey(QMAPMS)WesternPovertyMonitoringSurvey(WPMS)Results:Povertyheadcountrates,povertygap,andpovertydistributionbylevelofeducation,ethnicgroup,countytownandhouseholdstructureDissemination:PovertyMonitoringReport,2005TOTCourseonPovertyAnalysis45,优势Strengths,可靠Reliable科学的抽样方法Scientificsamplemethods完善的问卷Carefullydevelopedquestionnaire可靠的数据采集方法Reliabledatacollection高效的数据处理程序Efficientdataprocessingsoftware专业调查员和数据处理人员Professionalandskillfulenumeratorteamanddataprocessingstaff稳定的调查网