成本管理(6).ppt

Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagementBasicPrinciplesofCostManagementCostEstimatingCostBudgetingCostControlUsingSoftwaretoAssistinCostManagement,3,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagement,ITprojectshaveapoortrackrecordformeetingbudgetgoals.The2003CHAOSstudiesshowedtheaveragecostoverrun(theadditionalpercentageordollaramountbywhichactualcostsexceedestimates)was43percent.U.S.lost$55billioninITprojectsin2002fromcancelledprojectsandoverrunscomparedto$140billionin1994.,4,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,WhatWentWrong?,AccordingtotheSanFranciscoChroniclesfront-pagestory,“ComputerBumblingCoststheState$1Billion,”thestateofCaliforniahadaseriesofexpensiveITprojectfailuresinthelate1990s,costingtaxpayersnearly$1billionItwasironicthatthestatethatwasleadinginthecreationofcomputerswasalsothestatemostbehindinusingcomputertechnologytoimproveitsservices.TheInternalRevenueService(IRS)managedaseriesofprojectfailuresthatcosttaxpayersover$50billionayearroughlyasmuchmoneyastheannualnetprofitoftheentirecomputerindustry.ConnecticutGeneralLifeInsuranceCo.suedPeopleSoftoveranabortedinstallationofafinancesystem.,5,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,WhatisCost?,Costisaresourcesacrificedorforegonetoachieveaspecificobjective,orsomethinggivenupinexchange.Thereasonsofcostoverrun:TheoriginalcostestimatesforITprojectsarelowtobeginwithorbasedonveryunclearprojectrequirementsNotemphasizingtheimportanceofrealisticprojectcostestimatesfromtheoutset.Manyinformationtechnologyprofessionalsthinkpreparingcostestimatesissjobofaccountants.Preparinggoodcostestimatesisaverydemanding,importantskillthatallinformationtechnologyprofessionalsneedtoacquire.Manyinformationtechnologyprojectsinvolvenewtechnologyorbusinessprocesses.Costgrowandfailurearetobeexpected?Wrong.Usinggoodprojectcostmanagementcanchangethisfalseperception.,6,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,WhatisProjectCostManagement?,Projectcostmanagementincludestheprocessesrequiredtoensurethattheprojectiscompletedwithinanapprovedbudget.Itisprojectmanagersjobtosatisfyprojectstakeholderswhilecontinuouslystrivingtoreduceandcontrolcosts.ProjectCostManagementProcessesCostestimating:Developinganapproximationorestimateofthecostsoftheresourcesneededtocompleteaproject.Costbudgeting:Allocatingtheoverallcostestimatetoindividualworkitemstoestablishabaselineformeasuringperformance.Costcontrol:Controllingchangestotheprojectbudget.,Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagementBasicPrinciplesofCostManagementCostEstimatingCostBudgetingCostControlUsingSoftwaretoAssistinCostManagement,8,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,BasicPrinciplesofCostManagement,MostmembersofanexecutiveboardhaveabetterunderstandingandaremoreinterestedinfinancialtermsthanITterms,soITprojectmanagersmustspeaktheirlanguage.Profitsarerevenuesminusexpenses.Lifecyclecostingconsidersthetotalcostofownership,ordevelopmentplussupportcosts,foraproject.Cashflowanalysisdeterminestheestimatedannualcostsandbenefitsforaprojectandtheresultingannualcashflow.Tangiblecostsorbenefitsarethosecostsorbenefitsthatanorganizationcaneasilymeasureindollars.Intangiblecostsorbenefitsarecostsorbenefitsthataredifficulttomeasureinmonetaryterms.Directcostsarecoststhatcanbedirectlyrelatedtoproducingtheproductsandservicesoftheproject.,9,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,BasicPrinciplesofCostManagement,Indirectcostsarecoststhatarenotdirectlyrelatedtotheproductsorservicesoftheproject,butareindirectlyrelatedtoperformingtheproject.Sunkcostismoneythathasbeenspentinthepast;whendecidingwhatprojectstoinvestinorcontinue,youshouldnotincludesunkcosts.Learningcurvetheorystatesthatwhenmanyitemsareproducedrepetitively,theunitcostofthoseitemsdecreasesinaregularpatternasmoreunitsareproduced.Reservesaredollarsincludedinacostestimatetomitigatecostriskbyallowingforfuturesituationsthataredifficulttopredict.Contingencyreservesallowforfuturesituationsthatmaybepartiallyplannedfor(sometimescalledknownunknowns)andareincludedintheprojectcostbaseline.Managementreservesallowforfuturesituationsthatareunpredictable(sometimescalledunknownunknowns).,10,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostofSoftwareDefects,Itisimportanttospendmoneyup-frontonITprojectstoavoidspendingalotmorelater.,Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagementBasicPrinciplesofCostManagementCostEstimatingCostBudgetingCostControlUsingSoftwaretoAssistinCostManagement,12,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostEstimating,Projectmanagersmusttakecostestimatesseriouslyiftheywanttocompleteprojectswithinbudgetconstraints.Itsimportanttoknowthetypesofcostestimates,howtopreparecostestimates,andtypicalproblemsassociatedwithITcostestimates.,13,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,TypesofCostEstimates,14,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,MoreonCostEstimating,Afterdevelopingagoodresourcerequirementslist,projectmanagerandtheirteammustdevelopseveralestimatesofthecostsfortheseresources.Thenumberandtypeofcostestimatesvarybyapplicationarea,themainpointisthatestimatesareusuallydoneatvariousstagesofaprojectandshouldbecomemoreaccurateastimeprogresses.ForITprojectestimates,thisaccuracyrangeisoftenmuchwider.Inadditiontocreatingcostestimates,itisalsoimportanttoprovidesupportingdetailsfortheestimates.Thesedetailsshouldmakeiteasiertoprepareanupdatedestimateorsimilarestimateasneeded.GroundrulesandassumptionsAdescriptionoftheproject(scopestatement,WBS,andsoon)usedDetailsonthecostestimationtoolsandtechniquesusedtocreatetheestimate.,15,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostManagementPlan,Acostmanagementplanisadocumentthatdescribeshowtheorganizationwillmanagecostvariancesontheproject.Alargepercentageoftotalprojectcostsareoftenlaborcosts,soprojectmanagersmustdevelopandtrackestimatesforlabor.,16,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostEstimationToolsandTechniques,Analogousortop-downestimates:Usetheactualcostofaprevious,similarprojectasthebasisforestimatingthecostofthecurrentproject.Bottom-upestimates:AlsocalledActivityBasedCosting,involveestimatingindividualworkitemsoractivitiesandsummingthemtogetaprojecttotal.Parametricmodeling:Usesprojectcharacteristics(parameters)inamathematicalmodeltoestimateprojectcosts.Functionpoints:Technology-independentassessmentsofthefunctionsinvolvedindevelopingasystem.SourceLinesofCode(SLOC):Ahuman-writtenlineofcodethatisnotablanklineorcomment.Computerizedtools:Tools,suchasspreadsheetsandprojectmanagementsoftware,thatcanmakeworkingwithdifferentcostestimatesandcostestimationtoolseasier.,17,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,TypicalProblemswithITCostEstimates,Developinganestimateforalargesoftwareprojectisacomplextaskthatrequiresasignificantamountofeffort.Manyestimatemustbedonequicklyandbeforesystemrequirementshavebeenproduced.Estimatearedoneatvariousstagesoftheproject,andprojectmanagerneedtoexplaintherationaleforeachestimate.Peoplewhodevelopestimatesoftendonothavemuchexperience.Humanbeingsarebiasedtowardunderestimation.Managementmightaskforanestimate,butreallydesireabidtowinamajorcontractorgetinternalfunding.,18,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,SampleCostEstimate,Beforecreatinganestimate,knowwhatitwillbeusedfor,gatherasmuchinformationabouttheprojectaspossibleClarifythegroundrulesandassumptionsfortheestimate.Ifpossible,estimatecostsbymajorWBScategories.Createacostmodeltomakeiteasytochangeanddocumenttheestimate.,19,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,SurveyorProProjectCostEstimate,20,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,SurveyorProSoftwareDevelopmentEstimate,Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagementBasicPrinciplesofCostManagementCostEstimatingCostBudgetingCostControlUsingSoftwaretoAssistinCostManagement,22,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostBudgeting,Costbudgetinginvolvesallocatingtheprojectcostestimatetoindividualworkitemsovertime.TheWBSisarequiredinputforthecostbudgetingprocessbecauseitdefinestheworkitems.Importantgoalistoproduceacostbaseline:Atime-phasedbudgetthatprojectmanagersusetomeasureandmonitorcostperformance.,23,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,SurveyorProProjectCostBaseline,Chapter7:ProjectCostManagement,TheImportanceofProjectCostManagementBasicPrinciplesofCostManagementCostEstimatingCostBudgetingCostControlUsingSoftwaretoAssistinCostManagement,25,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,CostControl,Projectcostcontrolincludes:Monitoringcostperformance.Ensuringthatonlyappropriateprojectchangesareincludedinarevisedcostbaseline.Informingprojectstakeholdersofauthorizedchangestotheprojectthatwillaffectcosts.Manyorganizationsaroundtheglobehaveproblemswithcostcontrol.,26,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,MediaSnapshot,Australia:ProblemswiththeinstallationofanERPsystematCraneGroupLtd.ledtoanestimatedcostoverrunof$11.5million.India:Asmanyas274projectscurrentlyunderimplementationintheCentralsectoraresufferingseriouscostandtimeoverruns.Pakistan:PakistanhassustainedacostoverrunofRs1.798billion(over$30millionU.S.dollars)intheexecutionofthe66.5megawattJagranHydropowerProjectintheNeelumValley.UnitedStates:NorthernCalifornialawmakerswereoutragedoverGovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggersannouncementthatcommutersshouldhavetopayconstructioncostsonBayAreabridges.MaybeittakestheTerminatortohelpcontrolcosts!,27,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,EarnedValueManagement(EVM),EVMisaprojectperformancemeasurementtechniquethatintegratesscope,time,andcostdata.Givenabaseline(originalplanplusapprovedchanges),youcandeterminehowwelltheprojectismeetingitsgoals.YoumustenteractualinformationperiodicallytouseEVM.EarnedValueManagementTermsTheplannedvalue(PV),alsocalledthebudget,isthatportionoftheapprovedtotalcostestimateplannedtobespentonanactivityduringagivenperiod.Actualcost(AC),isthetotalofdirectandindirectcostsincurredinaccomplishingworkonanactivityduringagivenperiod.Theearnedvalue(EV),isanestimateofthevalueofthephysicalworkactuallycompleted.Itisbasedontheoriginalplannedcostsfortheprojectoractivityandtherateatwhichtheteamiscompletingworkontheprojectoractivitytodate.Rateofperformance(RP)istheratioofactualworkcompletedtothepercentageofworkplannedtohavebeencompletedatanygiventimeduringthelifeoftheprojectoractivity.,28,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,EarnedValueCalculationsforOneActivityAfterWeekOne,29,InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FourthEdition,ProjectPortfolioManagement,Manyorganizationscollectandcontrolanentiresuiteofprojectsorinvestmentsasonesetofinterrelatedactivitiesinaportfolio.Projectportfoliomanagementhasfivelevels:Putallyourprojectsinonedatabase.Prioritizetheprojectsinyourdatabase.Divideyourprojectsintotwoorthreebudgetsbasedontypeofinvestment.Automatetherepository.Applymodernportfoliothe