外文翻译--中国乘用车燃料经济性标准的组成和影响 英文版

standardsC1e. Tocared iner 9byininxcleaand,greenhouse gases from Chinas transportation sector.& 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.1. IntroductionThe recent growth of Chinas automobileand saleses in06er 24orcyclesmanypopulation,a hostcongestasingimpacts of the current standards as well as the potential impactsealHowever, vehicles in China are additionallyclassified accordingARTICLE IN PRESSContents lists available at ScienceDirect.elsevEnergy PolicyEnergy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811this system, highway vehicles are categorized as passengerE-mail addresses: , (D.V. Wagner).fuel economy standards in the context of Chinas automobileindustrygrowth, national oil consumption, and CO2emissions. Weto a slightly different classification system dictated by theMinistry of Public Security. These classifications are used bothfor official statistical reporting by the National Bureau of Statisticsas well as for administrative management, e.g. licensing. Under0301-4215/$-see front matter & 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.009C3Corresponding author. Tel.: +861065857324； fax: +861065857394.of the upcoming second phase of standards.In this paper, we summarize the current Chinese passenger carvehicle regulations, are based on the categorizations shown inTable 1.implementation of the first phase now complete, there isincreasing interest in evaluating and understanding both theto those used in Europe； these are shown in Table 1. All vehiclfuel economy regulations in China, including current and futurepassenger vehicle fuel economy standards as well as commercidence and greenhouse gas emissions.In 2004, with primary concern over mitigating Chinas risingoil dependence, the Chinese government issued first-ever nationalfuel economy standards for passenger cars. The first phase of thestandards took effect over the period 20052006. With theOfficially, highway vehicles in China are classified according toChinese national standard GB/T 15089-2001, Classification ofPower-driven Vehicles and Trailers (SAC, 2001). This standarddefines vehicle classes in China according to M (passengervehicles) and N (commercial vehicles) classification labels similarstaggering. Rapid rises in productionthe number of on-road civil vehiclmillion, during the period 200120addition, in 2006, there were ov(CAAMS, 2007) and 81 million mot2007b). Though there are certainlybenefits to an increasingly motorizedvehicles has also contributed tothroughout China, including heavilyurban air pollution, and rapidly increindustry has beenmore than doubledChina, from 18 to 37alone (CSY, 2007). Inmillion rural vehiclesin China (CATARC,economic and personalthis explosion ofof negative effectsed streets, stiflingnational oil depen-then explore existing precedents for estimating the historical fueleconomy of Chinas passenger car fleet, and investigate currentChinese vehicle fuel economy data sources. We then perform ourown analysis of Chinese passenger car fuel economy, comparingthese results against other estimates and noting trends. Finally,we describe additional efforts the Chinese government is makingto limit the fuel consumption by Chinas passenger car fleet.2. Background2.1. Vehicle definitionsStructure and impacts of fuel economyDavid Vance WagnerC3, Feng An, Cheng WangThe Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation, Room 1904, e-Tower Building, No.article infoArticle history:Received 28 May 2009Accepted 15 July 2009Available online 8 August 2009Keywords:ChinaFuel economyPassenger carsabstractBy the end of 2006, there wertimes as many as in 2001implementing passengerconsumption limits resultof about 11%, from just ovproject that upon completioncars in China may drop onlythat a majority of cars soldSimultaneously, other trendsand increases in standards-efrom 2002 to 2006. It islimits are required to slowjournal homepage: wwwfor passenger cars in China2 Guanghua Rd., Chaoyang District, Beijing 100020, Chinaabout 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly threeslow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China beganfuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuela sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decreasel/100km to approximately 8l/100km, from 2002 to 2006. However, weof Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passengeran additional 1%, to approximately 7.9l/100km. This is due to the fact2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits.the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weightempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achievedr that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumptionultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption /locate/enpolARTICLE IN PRESSseparated out from passenger vehicles in official statistics, for theChinese passenger car population projections consideringvarious different growth scenarios were recently made by Wanget al. (2006) and Ng and Schipper (2005). These projections areshown in Fig. 3. Wang et al. projected Chinas passenger carpopulation to equal that currently in the United States by justafter 2030, while Ng and Schipper projected faster growth.Though projecting future passenger car population is beyondthe scope of this paper, it is worth noting that, due to higher-than-expected growth rates of all areas of the Chinese economy,including the automotive sector, projections of future vehiclepopulation from even just a few years ago are already outdated.Because Chinese passenger vehicle growth rates from 2003 to2006 were 26%, 19%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, the 2006population of passenger cars in China, 24 million, is alreadyalmost equal to the 2010 estimate in most of Wang et al. andD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 380338113804purposes of this analysis we have roughly approximated carpossession by assuming 85% of all civil passenger vehicles arepassenger cars, and 90% of all private passenger vehicles areprivate passenger cars. These percentages are rough extrapola-tions based on the figures shown in Table 3.The growth of on-road vehicles by selected categories in Chinais shown in Fig.1. By the end of 2006, there were nearly 24 milliontotal passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times asmany as in 2001.Though Fig. 1 shows tremendous growth in possession of alltypes of vehicles, the growth of private passenger cars isparticularly remarkable. In 1990, there were less than 250,000vehicles, trucks, or others. Among passenger vehicles, vehicles arefurther classified by size as large, medium, small, or minicar. Thisclassification system is shown in Table 2 (MPS, 2008).From Tables 1 and 2, it can be inferred that M1-type vehicles,including M1G, are either small or minicar passenger vehicles.In this report, we consistently use the term passenger car torefer to all vehicles with nine or fewer seats designed primarily forcarrying passengers. This refers to all M1 and M1G-type vehiclesas defined by the Standardization Administration of China, whichis same as all small and minicar passenger vehicles as defined bythe Ministry of Public Security. The term includes MPVs and SUVs.2.2. Historical vehicle population growthThe National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes annualdata on the possession of civil vehicles in China (CSY, 2007). Asdescribed previously, vehicles are categorized as passengervehicles, trucks, or others. Data is given both for total possessionof civil vehicles as well as for private vehicles, a subset of civilvehicles. Among passenger vehicles, beginning in 2002, vehiclesare further classified by size as large, medium, small, or minicar.Passenger vehicle size definitions were givenpreviously inTable 2.According to the definitions in Table 2, we calculate thepossession of passenger cars in China as the sum of the small andminicar data for each year. Prior to 2001, though cars are notTable 1Chinese vehicle classifications defined by the Standardization Administration ofChina.Classification DefinitionM1 Passenger vehicle with 9 or fewer seatsM1G SUV with 9 or fewer seatsM2 Passenger vehicle with more than 9 seats and with curb weight lessthan or equal to 5000kgM3 Passenger vehicle with more than 9 seats and curb weight above5000kgN1-3 Vehicle used for transporting goodsprivate passenger vehicles (of all sizes) in China； by 2006, therewere over 17.5 million private passenger cars alone. Accordingly,the growth of total on-road vehicles has been increasingly fueledby the growth of private passenger cars. This can be seen fromFig. 2, showing the percentage growth in overall on-road vehiclescoming from various vehicle types. In 2006, 80% of the growth ofon-road vehicles came from the growth of private passenger cars；in 2000, it was just 35% of total growth.The increasing importance of private passenger cars in China isno surprise. As Chinas per capita GDP has risen, so has demandand ownership of vehicles, echoing a common trend around theworld (Ng and Schipper, 2005). In 2006, there were approximately18 passenger cars per 1000 people in China, 14 of which wereprivately owned. Though these ownership rates are significantlysmaller than those of developed countries passenger carownership in the United States being above 800 per 1000 people(Ellis et al., 2008) the recent, rapid rise of vehicle ownership inChina is a major source of concern with respect to the current andfuture energy, environmental, and social impacts of Chinaspassenger car fleet.2.3. Passenger car population projectionsTable 2Chinese passenger vehicle size classifications defined by the Ministry of PublicSecurity and used by the National Bureau of Statistics.China vehicle size classification DefinitionPassengerVehiclesMinicar Vehicle shorter than 3.5m and with anengine capacity of 1l or lessSmall Vehicle shorter than 6m with 9 orfewer seatsMedium Vehicle shorter than 6m and holding1019 peopleLarge Vehicle longer than 6m or holding 20or more peopleTable 3Percentages of passenger vehicles in China that are passenger cars (calculated fromCSY, 2007, and our estimates).Year(s) Civil passenger cars aspercentage of civilpassenger vehicles (%)Private passenger cars aspercentage of privatepassenger vehicles (%)19902001 85 (estimate) 90 (estimate)2002 85 932003 87 942004 88 952005 90 962006 91 96Schipper and Ngs projections. This may be seen in Fig. 4.2.4. Vehicle energy consumption and CO2emissionsChinas rapid economic growth has demanded more and moreenergy from all sources and for all sectors. Although Chinasofficial energy statistics do not report specific energy consump-tion by the complete transportation sector, a recent report by theInstitute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelbergestimated that, in 2003, Chinas transportation sector wasresponsible for 17% of total national energy consumption (Knorrand Dunnebeil, 2008). This is still significantly lower than that ofEurope, for which the transportation sector uses 27% of totalARTICLE IN PRESSD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811 380530,000,00035,000,00040,000,000Total On-Road Civil Vehicles in China (not incl motorcycles)Total Civil Passenger Cars in Chinaenergy consumed (Knorr and Dunnebeil, 2008). However, thispercentage is likely to grow as Chinas automobile industrycontinues to grow and as other industries improve efficiency.The Chinese government is particularly driven to limit energyuse by the transportation sector because this sector is one of themajor consumers of petroleum in the country. As a result of risingpetroleum demand coupled with limited domestic supply, China05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,0001978Number of VehiclesTotal Private Passenger Cars in ChinaTotal Civil Trucks in China1983 1988Fig. 1. Possession of civil vehicles in China, by type, 19782006. Solid lines show dataestimates.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2000YearPrivate Passenger CarsNon-Private Passenger CarsTrucksOther Vehicles2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Fig. 2. Percentage growth in overall on-road vehicles coming from various vehicletypes.01002003004005006002000YearNumber of Cars, millionsWang et al Low Growth ScenarioWang el al Mid Growth ScenarioWang et al High Growth ScenarioNg and Schipper Baseline ScenarioNg and Schipper Oil Saved ScenarioNg and Schipper Integrated Transport ScenarioApproximate Current US Car Population2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Fig. 3. Recent Chinese passenger car population projections.Year1993 1998 2003from the China National Bureau of Statistics (CSY, 2007). Dotted lines show ourbecame a net importer of petroleum in 1993. As shown in Fig. 5,Chinas petroleum import percentage has grown ever since,reaching 50% in 2006 (CSY, 2007).Because Chinas on-road transportation vehicles are fueledalmost exclusively by gasoline and diesel, much of the rapidgrowth of petroleum consumption in China can be linked to thegrowth of on-road transportation vehicles. CATARC data indicatethat, in 2006, motor vehicles consumed 86.4% of all gasolineconsumed in China and 24.1% of all diesel (CATARC, 2007b).Controlling petroleum consumption by this sector is a critical goalfor China in order to slow the growth in its oil dependence.Though Chinas current energy saving policies primarily targetenergy security, there is increasing pressure internationally anddomestic recognition of the need for China to slow the growth ofits CO2emissions. This is especially true now that China is thoughtto be the worlds largest emitter of greenhouse gases (Rosenthal,2008).Within the transportation sector, the increased use of petro-leum has led to a corresponding increase in CO2emissions fromon-road transportation. Wang et al. estimate that, as earlyas 2028,Chinas total on-road CO2emissions could match those of theUnited States in 2004 (Wang et al., 2006). However, this may evenbe a low estimate due to higher-than-expected growth, asmentioned previously.01020304050607080901001985YearNumber of Cars, millionsWang et al Low Growth ScenarioWang el al Mid Growth ScenarioWang et al High Growth ScenarioNg and Schipper Baseline ScenarioNg and Schipper Oil Saved ScenarioNg and Schipper Integrated Transport ScenarioActual Population Data1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Fig. 4. Chinese passenger car population projections compared with actualpopulation growth. Note that 2006 real passenger car population is alreadygreater than 2010 population estimates in most of the projections.ARTICLE IN PRESSWithin the Chinese transportation sector, trucks are the largestconsumers of energy and emitters of CO . Wang et al. estimateoffered only one or two models, thus making the fleet average4000050000Total Crude Oil ProductionTotal Crude Oil ConsumptionD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 3803381138062that cars in 2000 only consumed 9% of the transportation sectorstotal oil consumption.1He et al. estimate that in 2002, carsaccounted for only about 16% of oil consumption by Chinastransportation sector (He et al., 2005).However, cars were the first sub-sector of transportationtargeted by the Chinese government for fuel consumptionregulation for two reasons. First, as we have seen, the proportion-ally faster growth of cars as compared with other types of vehiclesmeans CO2emissions from cars as a percentage of transport sectoremissions will certainly grow. Indeed, Wang et al.s projectionsshow an increasing share of oil consumption from motor vehiclescoming from cars； the percentage of motor vehicle oil consump-tion by cars rises from 9% in 2000 to 17% in 2010, then up to2829% by 2030.2The second reason Chinese policy makerstargeted cars initially for fuel consumption regulation is that thereis stronger international precedent for regulating fuel consump-tion by passenger cars than for commercial vehicles, as thecommercial vehicle sector tends to self-limit fuel consumption foreconomic reasons.3Wang et al.s oil consumption projection figures are given inmillion metric tons (MMT) oil. After applying a simple conversionfactor,4highest and lowest growth scenario projections for CO2emissions from Chinese passenger cars are shown in Fig. 6. Underthe highest growth scenario, CO2emissions from passenger cars inChina would exceed one billion tons by 2050.01000020000300001976YearQuantity, 10,000 tons sce1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006Fig. 5. Chinas total crude oil production and consumption from 1978 to 2006.3. Structure of Chinese passenger vehicle fuel consumptionstandardsRapidly growing passenger vehicle fleet oil consumption andCO2emissions led China in 2004 to adopt National Standard GB19578-2004, Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Cars(SAC, 2004). Though these standards are primarily designed tohelp mitigate Chinas increasing dependence on foreign oil, otherobjectives include encouraging foreign manufacturers to bringstate-of-the-art, efficient vehicle technologies to the Chinesemarket and squeezing out small and less competent domesticmanufacturers.1Estimated from Wang et al. oil consumption data, pp. 4446.2Estimated from Wang et al oil consumption data, pp. 4446.3Though China has recently enacted fuel economy standards for commercialvehicles, as described in Section 4.4Conversion factor of units CO2per unit weight oil calculated as 44/12C288.5%, the approximate carbon content of oil.The standard establishes maximum allowable fuel consump-tion limits for vehicles divided into 16 weight classes. Thestandards are implemented in two phases. Phase 1 was imple-mented on July 1st, 2005, for new models, and July 1st, 2006, forcontinued models； Phase 2 was implemented on January 1st,2008, for new models, and will be implemented January 1st, 2009,for continued models. Vehicles are tested using the New EuropeanDrive Cycle (NEDC).The 16 weight classes range from less then 7503500kg. Thestandards cover M1 and M1G-type vehicles, including passengercars, SUVs, and multi-purpose vans (MPVs). Within each weightclass, vehicles are additionally sub-divided into two categories.Vehicles with special structures are defined as those that meetone of three criteria: (a) have automatic transmission； (b) havethree or more rows of seats； (c) are of the type M1G (SUVs). If avehicle meets all the three criteria, it is granted a 6% exemption ofthe limits. For simplicity, this paper will label the two groups asMT (manual transmission) and AT/SUV (automatic transmissionand/or SUV).One distinctive feature of the Chinese standards is that, ratherthan being based on fleet average, they establish maximumallowable fuel consumption limits by weight category. Chinachose a weight-based limit-value approach for more practical asopposed to theoretical reasons. During the time of the creationof the fuel consumption standards, the Chinese car market washighly fragmented, with over one hundred manufacturers. Therewere very few multiple-line manufacturers； many manufacturers0200400600800100012002000YearMillion tons CO2 EmissionsWang et al lowest growth scenarioWang et al highest growth scenario2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Fig. 6. Projections of CO2emissions from Chinas passenger cars, converted fromoil consumption figures.approach meaningless. Additionally, vehicle sales figures in Chinahave been historically secret, unknown, and/or difficult to obtain,making a sales-weighted average approach unpractical. Theweight classification is based on EU emission testing protocol,with more stringent requirements on heavier models； this isdesigned to curb large vehicle and SUV growth in China.Another unique feature of the Chinese fuel economy standardsis that every vehicle manufactured in China is required to meetthe standard for its weight class. There are neither exceptions nora credit system to allow vehicles that exceed compliance to offsetthose that do not.The Chinese passenger car fuel consumption limits are shownin Table 4 and graphed in Fig. 7.Using a methodology to standardize drive cycles, a recentreport by An et al. noted that Chinas passenger car fuel economystandards are more stringent than those in other developednations, including the United States, Canada, South Korea, andAustralia, although not as stringent as the fuel economy standardsin Europe and Japan (An et al., 2007).ARTICLE IN PRESSA recent, third estimate performed by the Institute for Energyand Environmental Research Heidelberg (IFEU) estimated ChineseTable 4D.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811 3807Chinese passenger car fuel consumption limits.Curbweight(kg)Maximum allowable fuel consumption, in l/100-km,as measured using NEDCMTvehicles,Phase 1MTvehicles,Phase 2AT/SUVvehicles,Phase 1AT/SUVvehicles,Phase 2750 7.2 6.2 7.6 6.6865 7.2 6.5 7.6 6.9980 7.7 7 8.2 7.41090 8.3 7.5 8.8 81205 8.9 8.1 9.4 8.61320 9.5 8.6 10.1 9.11430 10.1 9.2 10.7 9.81540 10.7 9.7 11.5 10.31660 11.3 10.2 12 10.81770 11.9 10.7 12.6 11.31880 12.4 11.1 13.1 11.82000 12.8 11.5 13.6 12.22110 13.2 11.9 14 12.62280 13.7 12.3 14.5 132510 14.6 13.1 15.5 13.93500 15.5 13.9 16.4 14.74. Impacts4.1. Estimates of historical fuel economyLack of data makes accurately estimating the historical fueleconomy of Chinas passenger car fleet challenging. Still, therehave been at least four estimates. The first, performed by He et al.(2005), estimated average on-road fuel consumption of cars inChina from 1997 to 2002 to be 9.07l/100km5(He et al., 2005). Heet al.s methodology was to take manufacturer-supplied best-casefuel economy values (label fuel economy) for dominant vehiclemodels in China and revise them downward by a real-worldadjustment factor.The second estimate was performed by the China AutomotiveTechnology and Research and Center (CATARC) in 2007. Theyestimated the 2002 average fuel consumption of newcars in Chinato be 9.11l/100km (CATARC, 2007a). CATARC used manufacturer-supplied data, but it is unclear how their data and methodologywere different from He et al.s, and what correction factors (if any)were applied.46810121416300025002000Curb Weight, kgMaximum Fuel Consumption, l/100kmMT, Phase 1MT, Phase 2AT/SUV, Phase 1AT/SUV, Phase 2500 1000 1500Fig. 7. Chinese passenger car fuel consumption limits.5Converted from the published value, 11.03km/l.passenger car 2003 fuel consumption to be 8.4l/100km (Knorrand Dunnebeil, 2008). The IFEUs complete methodology fordetermining this number is not stated, and it is unclear why it issignificantly lower than the other estimates from 2002.A final estimate, performed by An et al. (2007), estimatedChinas 2005 fuel economy to be 8.19l/100km6(An et al., 2007).This estimation was based on proprietary sales figures of newvehicle models sold in China, with fuel economy rates and vehicleweight estimates.4.2. Estimates of current and future fuel economyFull implementation of Phase 1 fuel economy standards wascompleted in 2006. As such, there is increasing interest inevaluating their impacts on new vehicles in China. The first suchimpact analysis was completed in late 2007 by CATARC. Theyestimated the 2006 fuel consumption of new passenger cars inChina to be 8.06l/100km, 11% lower than their 2002 estimate(CATARC, 2007a). CATARCs methodology roughly estimated newfleet fuel consumption based on manufacturer average fuelconsumption and manufacturer total sales. CATARCs averagewas only manufacturer-specific, not model-specific. ThoughCATARCs report presents the manufacturer data, the data areanonymous (CATARC, 2007a).The only existing future projection of fuel economy of newpassenger cars in China is an estimate by An et al. of the futureimpact of Phase 2 fuel economy standards. An et al. projected2008 fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China to be7.13l/100km7(An et al., 2007). This projection was largely basedon an assumption that the future vehicle weight mix would be thesame as in 2002, the year of the data compiled for the analysis.For this paper, using a sales-weighted, model-specific metho-dology described in the following section, we estimate the 2006average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China to be7.95l/100km, and project, upon complete implementation ofPhase 2 fuel economy standards, a 2009 new passenger caraverage fuel consumption of 7.87l/100km.A summary of estimates of Chinese new passenger car averagefuel consumption is shown in Table 5, and graphed in Fig. 8.4.3. MethodologyThe first-ever public database of fuel consumption of passen-ger vehicles in China was released in two batches by ChinasNational Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) inOctober 2006, and July 2007 (NDRC, 2006, 2007). The first batchconsisted of 409 passenger car models, all of which passed thePhase 1 fuel consumption limits. The second batch consisted of2374 passenger car models which passed the Phase 1 fuelconsumption limits, and 444 vehicles which failed. Fuel con-sumption data were not given for the vehicles which failed.Batches 1 and 2 combined to form a database of 2783passenger car models for sale in China. Of these, 1264 (45%) aregeneral type vehicles, while 1519 (55%) are special structurevehicles. As described previously, general type vehicles aremanual transmission vehicles, while special structure vehiclesare defined as those that meet one of the three criteria: (a) haveautomatic transmission； (b) have three or more rows of seats；(c) are of the type M1G (SUVs). Again, for simplicity, this paperwill label the two groups as MT (manual transmission) and6Converted from the published value, 193gCO2/km.7Converted from the published value, 168gCO2/km.ARTICLE IN PRESSD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 380338113808Table 5Summary of estimates of Chinese new passenger car average fuel consumption.Report authors and yearYear He et al.(2005)CATARC(2007a)An et al.(2007)Knorr andDunnebeil(2008)Thisstudy19972002 9.072002 9.112003 8.4AT/SUV (automatic transmission and/or SUV). Though the NDRCprovided no supporting information regarding completeness ofthe database, it is assumed that this database covers all passengercar models available for sale in China during approximately thefirst year after Phase 1 fuel economy standards went into effect forall vehicles. The fuel economy and weight data provided in thetwo NDRC data sets are graphed in Figs. 9 and 10 against bothPhase 1 and Phase 2 fuel consumption limits.In this paper, we assume that the analysis of these combineddata sets yields reasonable estimates of the fuel economy of newpassenger vehicles sold in China over the period late 2006 to earlyeconomdrivers20042005 8.192006 8.06 7.9520072008 7.132009 7.879.079.078.098.47.867.956.577.588.599.51996YearFuel Consumption, l/100kmHe et al., 2005Jin et al., 2007An et al., 2007Knrr and Dnnebeil, 2008This study1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Fig. 8. Summary of estimates of Chinese new passenger car average fuelconsumption.4681012141630002500200015001000500Curb Weight, kgMaximum Fuel Consumption, l/100kmPhase 1 Fuel ConsumptionLimits for MT VehiclesPhase 2 Fuel ConsumptionLimits for MT VehiclesMT Vehicles Data SetFig. 9. NDRC fuel consumption and weight data for manual transmissionpassenger cars for sale in China.(1) Estimate overall and manufacturer-specific sales-weightedaverage fuel economy of new vehicles sold in China in 2006.(2) Estimate overall sales-weighted percentage of current vehi-cles that will not meet Phase 2 fuel economy standards.(3) Estimate potential effect of Phase 2 standards using a roughassumption that all vehicles currently exceeding Phase 2standards will meet them by the final implementation date,January 1st, 2009.There are at least two areas where potential error may beintroduced into our analysis. First, because of lack of availabledata, we were unable to consider sales of 100% of all passengercars in China. Second, because the NDRC data sets do not providethe(200clearmatcheddata.4.4.Thefacturmodel:AverageThepassengOverpassengmostof overall passenger car sales. The sales data were taken fromAutomotive Industry of China yearbook published by CATARC7b). We then performed the following analysis:data87%or this paper, we matched the NDRC data sets with 2006 salesby model for 731 vehicle models whose combined sales totaledareaFwhat level of production compliance to the current fuely standards exists. Whether fuel economy achieved byin China matches those reported by the NDRC is a criticalfor further study.2007. However, two caveats must be mentioned. First, we applyno real-world driving correction factor to the NDRC data, due tolack of data comparing Chinese driving behavior acrosshundreds of cities to the NEDC. Second, it is unknown andunclear4681012141630002500200015001000500Curb Weight, kgMaximum Fuel Consumption, l/100kmPhase 1 Fuel ConsumptionLimits for AT/SUV VehiclesPhase 1 Fuel ConsumptionLimits for AT/SUV VehiclesAT/SUV Data SetFig. 10. NDRC fuel consumption and weight data for automatic transmission andSUV passenger cars for sale in China.dates as to their validity, we were forced to match 2006 salesto what are presumably 20062007 fuel consumptionSales-weighted fuel economysales-weighted fuel consumption (overall and by manu-er) is calculated by the following equation, where m is thefuel consumptionXmFuel consumptionC3msalesm=total salesoverall result plus individual results for the top 27er car manufacturers in China are shown in Table 6.all, we estimate the 20062007 fuel economy of newer cars in China to be 7.95l/100km. The sales-weightedefficient manufacturer is Chery, while the sales-weight leastARTICLE IN PRESS7 passenger200vehicle274,242196,81116,202,862182,93860,49780,2408,432224,3110,3D.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811 3809Table 62006 sales figures and sales-weighted weight and fuel economy averages for top 2ManufacturerChery Automobile Co. Ltd.Tianjin FAW Xiali Automobile Co. Ltd.Jiangxi Changhe Automoblie Co. Ltd.Hafei Motor Co. Ltd.Zhejiang Geely Holding (Group) Co. Ltd.BYD Auto Co. Ltd.Changan Automobile (Group) Liability Co. Ltd.FAW Haima Motor Co. Ltd.SAIC GM Wuling Automobile Co. Ltd.Guangzhou Honda Automobile Co. Ltd.Dongfeng Yueda-Kia Automobile Co. Ltd.efficient manufacturer is Daimler-Benz. The sales-weighted low-est weight manufacturer is BYD, while the sales-weighted highestweight manufacturer is Great Wall.4.5. Impacts of Phase 2China Phase 2 fuel economy standards for passenger cars tookeffect on January 1st, 2008, for existing models, and will takeeffect on January 1st, 2009, for continued models. The NDRC hasnot yet released any data regarding compliance to the newstandards.Within the NDRC data sets described previously, 32% of overallvehicle models do not meet Phase 2 standards. Among MTvehicles, 34% do not meet the standards, while among AT/SUVvehicles, 30% do not meet the standards.Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co. Ltd. 63,3Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co. Ltd. 20Dongfeng Yuan Vehicle Co. Ltd. 46,80FAW Car Co. Ltd. 52,075Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Co. Ltd. 188,2FAW Toyota Motor Sales Co. Ltd. 208,235FAW-Volkswagen Automobile Co. Ltd. 345,529Nanjing Automobile (Group) Corporation 28,Shanghai General Motor Co. Ltd. 370,Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. 329,367Beijing Hyundai Motor Company 289,990Shenyang Brilliance Jinbei Automotive Co. Ltd. 61Great Wall Automobile Holding 40,062BMW Brilliance Automotive Co. Ltd. 23,7Guangzhou Toyota Automobile Co. Ltd. 61Beijing Daimler-Benz Chrysler Automobile Ltd. 18,OverallThese sales numbers total 87% of 2006 passenger car sales in China.4681012141630002500200015001000500Curb Weight, kgMaximum Fuel Consumption, l/100kmPhase 2 Fuel Consumption Limits forMT VehiclesMT Vehicles comprising 87% of 2006SalesFig.11. Fuel consumption and weight data for manual transmission passenger carscomprising 87% of car sales in China.car manufacturers in China.6 passengersalesSales-weightedaverage weight (kg)Sales-weighted average fuelconsumption (l/100-km)1010 6.937 924 6.95167 1061 7.131034 7.25968 7.46116 855 7.52,877 1087 7.6318 1212 7.741000 7.819 1213 7.8177 1290 7.88Although 32% of passenger car models for sale in China in 2006did not meet Phase 2 fuel economy standards, by closelyexamining sales figures we can see that the vast majority ofpassenger cars sold in 2006 either already meet the Phase 2standards or only barely exceed them. Therefore, we do not expectto see a significant decrease in sales-weighted average fuelconsumption for new passenger cars in China upon completeimplementation of Phase 2 fuel economy standards. Figs. 11and 12 show the 731 vehicle models which make up 87% of 2006passenger car sales mapped against the Phase 2 fuel consumptionlimits alone.Here, we make a rough estimate of the potential impact of thePhase 2 standards by taking a sales-weighted fuel economyaverage using the assumption that all vehicles not currentlymeeting Phase 2 standards will meet the maximum fuel73 1445 7.881,316 1162 7.891 1032 7.971404 8.0570 1322 8.131375 8.361332 8.41139 1103 8.47114 1353 8.581325 8.591480 8.87,837 1449 9.261718 9.6335 1556 9.65,254 1520 10.1155 1610 10.347.954681012141630002500200015001000500Curb Weight, kgMaximum Fuel Consumption, l/100kmPhase 2 Fuel Consumption Limits forAT/SUV VehiclesAT/SUV Vehicles comprising 87% of 2006SalesFig. 12. Fuel consumption and weight data for automatic transmission and SUVpassenger cars comprising 87% of car sales in China.ARTICLE IN PRESS4.6. Other issues and effectstotalare under discussion, though it is unclear when or if thesestandards will be issued.6. ConclusionsWith Chinas car ownership still relatively low, there is a keyopportunity now for the Chinese government to implement aseries of fiscal and fuel economy policies designed to guide thedevelopment of the automobile industry in a sustainable, energyefficient direction. Though significant progress has been made particularly the implementation of Phase 1 and Phase 2 fueleconomy standards and progressive vehicle taxation based onengine size there are concerns that further efficiency gains willbe leveled off by rising average vehicle weight and increasing sales4.0+ 8 20 40D.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 380338113810created a serious concern that wealthy and powerful consumerscan get away from fuel economy regulations, and the importedmodels could significantly undermine the efficiency progress thathas been made in the domestic market. Further, detailed analysisof the energy impact of imported vehicles in China is an importantarea for future study, especially as the Chinese governmentdebates measures to deal with this issue.5. Other policies and future fuel economy standardsFuel consumption limits on passenger cars are only one ofseveral policies China has implemented to control energy use and300,0thangreen2006, and more than 30% from 2006 to 2007 (CTCAI, 2008). Theimported vehicles jumped from 160,000 to more than00 units in two years, with SUVs leading, increasing more100% in the past two years. This imports loophole hasCentertoOverall, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars inChina is decreasing. However, there are several troubling signsthat this trend may not continue if additional measures are not inplace. CATARC recently published additional analysis showingchanges to the Chinese passenger car fleet from 2002 to 2006,including:C15 an increase of 8%, from 150 to 162km/h, in the averagemaximum design speed of passenger cars (CATARC, 2007a)；and,C15 an increase of 10.2%, from 1230 to 1356kg, in average curbweight of passenger cars in China (CATARC, 2007a).Paralleling average maximum design speed and weight in-creases are increases in numbers of SUVs sold, largely due to asurge in SUV imports. In the first part of 2007, SUV market growthin China outpaced overall passenger car market growth by a factorof three (Ellis et al., 2008). Though the Chinese passenger car fueleconomy standards are designed to be bottom heavy intendedto curb the growth of heavier and less efficient vehicles theresults are mixed. While most domestically-made models havebeen kept smaller in power and engine size than their US andEuropean counterparts, a general trend towards faster, larger,heavier vehicles is still pervasive and could offset potentialadditional gains in sales-average fuel consumption in the nextfew years.Additionally, it should be mentioned that, while all thepassenger car models manufactured within Chinese boarders aresubject to the fuel consumption limits, imported vehicle modelsare exempt. Most of the imported models are luxury models withlarge engines (42.5l) or large SUVs, and as such most almostcertainly do not meet the standards. The Chinese government hasbeen struggling with how to control energy consumption by thesevehicles, particularly because banning luxury models is not apragmatic option. Developing a penalty tax scheme for vehiclemodels which exceed fuel consumption limits is clearly the mostlogical approach； however, progress on this development hasbeen slow.In recent years, the number of vehicles imported into China hasincreased dramatically. According to a report by China Tradingfor Automobile Imports, imports increased 41% from 2005consumption standard upon implementation. Using this metho-dology, we roughly approximate 2009 new Chinese passenger carfuel economy to be 7.87l/100km.house gas emissions by vehicles in the transportation sector.Some additional policies and programs are described briefly inthis section.5.1. Vehicle taxationChina has implemented a series of progressively strictervehicle manufacturing taxes that are significantly higher forlarger engines. The current and historical taxation rates are shownin Table 7.As described previously, the growth of vehicle weight and SUVsales has continued to outpace smaller passenger cars, despite thesignificantly higher taxes levied on these vehicles larger engines.Presumably, this is because the purchasers of these vehicles arewealthier customers with less susceptibility to price changes. Thenew tax rates effective September 2008 are designed to limit thisgrowth, though it is unclear yet what the impact is.5.2. Fuel economy labelingTo promote consumer awareness of energy consumption, onJuly 1st, 2008, China implemented first-ever mandatory fueleconomy labeling for passenger vehicles. The label, to be placedon the vehicles window, displays fuel consumption estimates forhighway, city, and overall average driving patterns.5.3. Other fuel economy standardsBesides Phase 1 and 2 fuel consumption standards forpassenger cars, China has also implemented fuel consumptionstandards for commercial N1-type vehicles with gross vehicleweight rating less than 3.5 tons (SAC, 2007) and rural vehicles(SAC, 2008a,b). Fuel economy regulations for heavy commercialtrucks are also under development.Phase 3 and 4 fuel economy standards for passenger vehiclesTable 7Manufacturer taxes levied on passenger vehicles in China (, 2008；MOF, 2008).Automobile categoryby enginedisplacement (l)Tax rate priorto 4/1/2006 (%)Tax rate 4/1/20068/31/2008 (%)Tax ratebeginning9/1/2008 (%)