摩根斯坦利关于汽车的报告（PPT 页）.ppt

,PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongress,StephenJ.GirskyJanuary2004,Disclosures,AnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:StephenJ.Girsky.ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanleyEqual-weightandUnderweightmostcloselycorrespondtoneutralandsellrecommendations,respectively.However,Overweight,Equal-weight,andUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,neutral,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Aninvestorsdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestorsexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyoranaffiliatereceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.AnalystStockRatingsOverweight(OorOver)-Thestockstotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalystsindustry(orindustryteams)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.Equal-weight(EorEqual)-Thestockstotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalystsindustry(orindustryteams)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.Underweight(UorUnder)-Thestockstotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalystsindustry(orindustryteams)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.Morevolatile(V)-Weestimatethatthisstockhasmorethana25%chanceofapricemove(upordown)ofmorethan25%inamonth,basedonaquantitativeassessmentofhistoricaldata,orintheanalystsview,itislikelytobecomemateriallymorevolatileoverthenext1-12monthscomparedwiththepastthreeyears.Stockswithlessthanoneyearoftradinghistoryareautomaticallyratedasmorevolatile(unlessotherwisenoted).Wenotethatsecuritiesthatwedonotcurrentlyconsidermorevolatilecanstillperforminthatmanner.Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinthisreportis12to18months.RatingspriortoMarch18,2002:SB=StrongBuy;OP=Outperform;N=Neutral;UP=Underperform.Fordefinitions,Disclosures,MorganStanleyisinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthisreport.Thesebusinessesincludespecializedtrading,riskarbitrageandotherproprietarytrading,fundmanagement,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleymakeseveryefforttousereliable,comprehensiveinformation,butwemakenorepresentationthatitisaccurateorcomplete.Wehavenoobligationtotellyouwhenopinionsorinformationinthisreportchangeapartfromwhenweintendtodiscontinueresearchcoverageofsubjectcompany.ReportspreparedbyMorganStanleyresearchpersonnelarebasedonpublicinformation.Factsandviewspresentedinthisreporthavenotbeenreviewedby,andmaynotreflectinformationknownto,professionalsinotherMorganStanleybusinessareas,includinginvestmentbankingpersonnel.Thevalueofandincomefromyourinvestmentsmayvarybecauseofchangesininterestratesorforeignexchangerates,securitiespricesormarketindexes,operationalorfinancialconditionsofcompaniesorotherfactors.Theremaybetimelimitationsontheexerciseofoptionsorotherrightsinyoursecuritiestransactions.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Estimatesoffutureperformancearebasedonassumptionsthatmaynotberealized.ThispublicationisdisseminatedinJapanbyMorganStanleyJapanLimitedand/orMorganStanleyNipponSecuritiesLimited;inSingaporebyorganStanleyDeanWitterAsia(Singapore)Pte.,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore;inAustraliabyMorganStanleyDeanWitterAustraliaLimitedA.B.N.67003734576,alicenseddealer,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents;incertainprovincesofCanadabyMorganStanleyCanadaLimited,whichhasapprovedof,andhasagreedtotakeresponsibilityfor,thecontentsofthispublicationinCanada;inSpainbyMorganStanley,S.V.,S.A.,aMorganStanleygroupcompany,whichissupervisedbytheSpanishSecuritiesMarketsCommission(CNMV)andstatesthatthisdocumenthasbeenwrittenanddistributedinaccordancewiththerulesofconductapplicabletofinancialresearchasestablishedunderSpanishregulations;intheUnitedStatesbyMorganStanleyandintheUnitedKingdom,thispublicationisapprovedbyMorganStanleyLessofthemGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery.Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult.Weakerdollarcouldlevelprovidesomeoffset.Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearnings.BigThreeopportunity:Actualqualityisbetterthanperceivedquality.,GlobalLightVehicleSales:SlowGrowth,CAGR1.2%,Source:LMCJ.D.PowerWhatTheySay,GMexpectsmarketstogrowaroundtheworldandtheirmarketsharetogrowineveryregion.FordexpectsprofitstodeclineinNorthAmerica.Theywerenotspecificbutsuggestcostissueslingering.GMexpectsEuropeanprofitstogrowby$300-400mm($500-$700mmpretax)in2004,whileFordexpectsprofitstogrowby$900-1,000mm.Itisunclearhowthisprofitgrowthcanoccurgiventhedifficultmarketconditionsthere.,DaimlerChrysler,Productlinehasbeenplayingdefenseforsometime.Offenseneedstogetonthefield.Chryslerfacesperceivedqualityproblems.Mercedeshasactualqualityproblems.Affiliateissuesmayloomlargein2004.CommercialtruckbusinessatDCXcouldbeapositivesourceofearningsforthecompanyin2004.,DCXMarketShare,12.2%,12.8%,13.1%,Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch,DCXCar&Lt.TruckSalesAsA%ofParent,Cars,LightTrucks,Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch,Chrysler&DCXOperatingMargins,Source:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearch,DCXNew/Replacement/RedesignedProducts,Source:CompanyData,WardsAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearch,Implications,G