巴克莱-美股-汽车与零部件行业-GM与FCA：正确时间的正确选择.2.15-27页

Equity Research 15 February 2018 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18. U.S. Autos risks for Ford: The strong large pickup environment mitigates cycle concerns which dominate investor discussions of OEMs. Beyond that, the supportive pickup market reinforces our positive views of GM and FCA, and could lead to positive earnings revisions. Conversely, we see some risk for Ford whether due to declining share or slight mix reversal. Our view also reinforces our OW rating on AXL, which has outsized exposure to the large pickup market. INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. Autos we believe that during the 2007 gas price spike this % might have fallen into the high single-digits. Tax reform to help small business and larger fleet sales freshen their trucks In general, we found that the OEMs have not yet digested the impact of TCJA (tax reform) on their pickup end markets. In part, this seems to be because in the month to month world of pickup marketing, sales driven by tax law changes tend to occur in the fourth quarter, once business owners and accountants sit down over taxes in advance of the end of the year. Much of the investment research that has come out on TCJA has looked at its impact on the Fortune 500 tax bills (an exercise we are guilty of, see 3 Topics for Detroit: Trucks, Tariffs and Taxes, 14 Jan, 2018) but weve seen relatively little on Main Street businesses. Based on our analysis of TCJA, we see two provisions that are positive for business sales in the pickup market: Govt 3% Rental 3% Comm. fleet 12% Business use - mixed 37% Business use - primary 6% RV/Towing 20% Appearance 19% 55% business related Barclays | U.S. Autos analysis of Detroit 3 OEMs only (GM, Ford and FCA) Source: Wards AutoInfoBank, Barclays Research On the incentives side, prior industry launches have resulted in an average $855 reduction in incentives overall and a $1,000 reduction in incentives relative to competitors. FIGURE 12 New pickup launches generally result in a material reduction in incentives Note: Analysis of Detroit 3 OEMs only Source: Autodata, Barclays Research GM going high and low What stood out for us in the new Silverado (the GMC Sierra has not yet been unveiled) is less the truck itself, but rather its marketing strategy, which aims across a broader range of the market. The truck itself appears to be a solid update with crisper styling and better fuel economy. In contrast to Fords aluminium F-series, GM stresses light-weighting via a mixed material strategy so for example, the pickup bed is high-strength steel while the doors and swinging panel are aluminium, and the cab has seven different materials. Fuel economy is enhanced by the lighter weight, improved aerodynamics and a Tula cylinder deactivation New Platform Launches by Brand Year Share Gain in 1st Peak Share Over Baseline Months to 1st Peak in Share Gain Share Gain in 2nd Peak Share Over Baseline Months to 2nd Peak in Share Gain Average Share Gain vs Baseline Year* in Year 1 of Platform Comments Chevrolet/GMC 19873.4%58.9%171.4%First pickup of the decade Ram19938.4%710.7%126.9%Radical, truck-like styling Ford 19962.7%33.6%18-0.1%More rounded shape to counter Dodge styling Chevrolet/GMC 19984.0%75.7%150.5%Increased variety of body styles using hydroformed frame Ram20013.9%123.6%180.1%Crew cab body style and bigger gross-vehicle weight options Ford 20033.0%54.1%141.2%More rugged exterior look; independent rear suspension on some models Chevrolet/GMC 20063.4%53.2%180.5%Based on GMs new T900 platform Ram20084.6%70.2%120.8%Front grille angle tipped forward; rear bumper molded around tailpipes Ford 20084.2%59.5%114.4% Fully-boxed frame using hydroformed high-strength steel; EcoBoost turbocharged direct-inject V6 offered on future models Chevrolet/GMC 20131.0%10.3%4-1.8% First pickup to include a combination of gas-direct injection, continuously variable valve timing, and cylinder deactivation Ford late 2014 1.3%1-0.2%9-1.3% Capable of providing a fuel-efficiency gain of more than 2 mpg at highway speeds Average3.6%5.34.5%13.51.1% New platform launches by brand Year 1st trough in incentives Months to 1st trough in incentives Average incentives vs baseline year* Average incentives change vs competitors Ram2001-$1,3173-$61-$971 Ford 2003-$7853-$109-$1,135 Chevrolet/GMC 2006-$1,5284-$770-$1,604 Ram2008-$1,6202-$1,971-$1,232 Ford 2008-$2,1894-$1,854-$907 Chevrolet/GMC 2013-$2,17512-$993-$750 Ford 2014-$1,6406-$228-$534 Average-$1,6085-$855-$1,019 Barclays | U.S. Autos risks for Ford OEMs - positive views on GM and FCA reinforced, risks for Ford Our outlook on the large pickup market most benefits GM and FCA; conversely, it highlights some risk for Ford. As a starting point, we think the strength in large pickups serves as a benefit for each of the players, as it mitigates the cycle concerns which have dominated investor discussions around the OEMs. Indeed, while we expect overall industry light vehicle volumes to decline in the coming years (as part of our eroding plateau outlook), we believe the larger driver of earnings for the OEMs is mix we estimate large pickups and SUVs account for 60-70% of profit at GM, and a similar, though smaller, amount at Ford. With the large pickup market holding in, it implies lower cycle-related downside risk. FIGURE 20 US large pickup market share Source: Wards Beyond that though, we see opportunity for GM and FCA, underscoring our OW ratings on both stocks. For GM, a favorable outlook on large pickups reinforces two positive aspects of the GM story. First, it implies positive earnings revisions as GM posts earnings ahead of consensus, and leading to continued outperformance over expectations. Second, with large pickups supporting cash flow, it provides GM with more buffer to fund its endeavors in Auto 2.0 (i.e. autonomous, mobility etc.) and a more robust Auto 2.0 story would certainly help the stock. For FCA, a favorable large pickup environment provides further ability to meet their 2018 plan targets. Moreover, we believe that the potential for over-earning and simultaneously avoiding under-earning related to the Ram changeover is underappreciated. By exiting mid and small sedans, FCA freed up capacity to launch the new Ram and new Wrangler in unused factories thus avoiding downtime for conversion as well as creating the option of running the outgoing platform longer in their existing factories. We believe that the extra Ram capacity can be absorbed at the lower-end of the market as small businesses enjoy the benefits of tax reform, while outgoing Wranglers can fill export needs. Conversely for Ford, we see some risk. 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Share of US large pickup market Fiat ChryslerFordGeneral Motors Barclays | U.S. Autos 57% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 74% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm. 40% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 48% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 70% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm. 15% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 38% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 66% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm. Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target: Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analysts expectation of where the stock will trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analysts price target over the same 12-month period. Top Picks: Barclays Equity Researchs Top Picks represent the single best alpha-generating investment idea within each industry (as defined by the relevant industry coverage universe), taken from among the Overweight-rated stocks within that industry. Barclays Equity Research publishes Top Picks reports every quarter and analysts may also publish intra-quarter changes to their Top Picks, as necessary. While analysts may highlight other Overweight-rated stocks in their published research in addition to their Top Pick, there can only be one Top Pick for each industry. To view the current list of Top Picks, go to the Top Picks page on Barclays Live ( To see a list of companies that comprise a particular industry coverage universe, please go to . Explanation of other types of investment recommendations produced by Barclays Equity Research: Trade ideas, thematic screens or portfolio recommendations contained herein that have been produced by analysts within Equity Research shall remain open until they are subsequently amended or closed in a future research report. Disclosure of previous investment recommendations produced by Barclays Equity Research: Barclays Equity Research may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities/instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. To view previous investment recommendations published by Barclays Equity Research in the preceding 12 months please refer to Legal entities involved in producing Barclays Research: Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, UK) Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, US) Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Japan) Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong) Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Canada) Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico) Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, India) Barclays Bank PLC, India branch (Barclays Bank, India) Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore) Barclays | U.S. Autos 2) Inability to execute on potential strategic options. Closing PriceTarget PriceRating Change Jul- 2015Jan- 2016Jul- 2016Jan- 2017Jul- 2017Jan- 2018 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Barclays | U.S. Autos the performance of pension assets; the potential for credit downgrades (credit ratings play a major role in the automakers ability to help their customers finance the purchase of new vehicles); the risk of substantial increases in North American production capacity by foreign automakers; and the consequential risk to market share. Risks specific to our Ford outlook include the following: (1) restructuring benefits could come sooner, and be more pronounced, than expected; (2) new products could help the company stem its market share decline or improve mix, thus making a more sizeable contribution to profits. Closing PriceTarget PriceRating Change Jul- 2015Jan- 2016Jul- 2016Jan- 2017Jul- 2017Jan- 2018 9.75 10.50 11.25 12.00 12.75 13.50 14.25 15.00 15.75 16.50 17.25 Barclays | U.S. Autos the performance of pension assets; the risk of a breakdown in industry pricing discipline. Risks specific to our GM outlook include the following: inability to price up new vehicles in NA; inability to restructure European operations, market share losses in BRIC countries. Closing PriceTarget PriceRating Change Jul- 2015Jan- 2016Jul- 2016Jan- 2017Jul- 2017Jan- 2018 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 DISCLAIMER: This publication has been produced by Barclays Research Department in the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and/or one or more of its affiliates (collectively and each individually, Barclays). It has been distributed by one or more Barclays affiliated legal entities listed below. It is provided to our clients for information purposes only, and Barclays makes no express or implied warranties, and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to any data included in this publication. To the extent that this publication states on the front page that it is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242, it is an “institutional debt research report” and distribution to retail investors is strictly prohibited. Barclays also distributes such institutional debt research reports to various issuers, regulatory and academic organisations for informational purposes and not for the purpose of making investment decisions regarding any debt securities. Any such recipients that do not want to continue receiving Barclays institutional debt research reports should contact debtresearch. Barclays will not treat unauthorized recipients of this report as its clients and accepts no liability for use by them of the contents which may not be suitable for their personal use. Prices shown are indicative and Barclays is not offering to buy or sell or soliciting offers to buy or sell any financial instrument. Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Barclays, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees have any liability for (a) any special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages; or (b) any lost profits, lost revenue, loss of anticipated savings or loss of opportunity or other financial loss, even if notified of the possibility of such damages, arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Other than disclosures relating to Barclays, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that Barclays Research believes to be reliable, but Barclays does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. Barclays is not responsible for, and makes no warranties whatsoever as to, the information or opinions contained in any written, electronic, audio or video presentations of third parties that are accessible via a direct hyperlink in this publication or via a hyperlink to a third-party web site (Third-Party Content). Any such Third-Party Content has not been adopted or endorsed by Barclays, does not represent the views or opinions of Barclays, and is not incorporated by reference into this publication. Third-Party Content is provided for information purposes only and Barclays has not independently verified its accuracy or completeness. The views in this publication are solely and exclusively those of the authoring analyst(s) and are subject to change, and Barclays Research has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. Unless otherwise disclosed herein, the analysts who authored this report have not received any compensation from the subject companies in the past 12 months. If this publication contains recommendations, they are general recommendations that were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Barclays and/or its affiliates, and/or the subject companies. This publication does not contain personal investment recommendations or investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or investment objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities and other investments discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Barclays is not a fiduciary to any recipient of this publication. Investors must independently evaluate the merits and risks of the investments discussed herein, consult any independent advisors they believe necessary, and exercise independent judgment with regard to any investment decision. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This document is being distributed (1) only by or with the approval of an authorised person (Barclays Bank PLC) or (2) to, and is directed at (a) persons in the United Kingdom having professional experience in matters relating to investments and who fall within the definition of investment professionals in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order); or (b) high net worth companies, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts as described in Article 49(2) of the Order; or (c) other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons being Relevant Persons). Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is only available to and will only be engaged in with Relevant Persons. Any other persons who receive this communication should not rely on or act upon it. Barclays Bank PLC is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC undertakes U.S. securities business in the name of its wholly owned subsidiary Barclays Capital Inc., a FINRA and SIPC member. Barclays Capital Inc., a U.S. registered broker/dealer, is distributing this material in the United States and, in connection ther